Final Rhode Island Poll
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:41:59 AM EST
Because as much as you want to know what's happening in Texas and Ohio, you know in your heart that you really want to know what the situation in Rhode Island is. For that we turn to Brown University (.pdf):
Hillary Clinton: 42 percent
Barack Obama: 37 percent
From the internals of the poll, which was in the field from February 27 through March 2 and had a margin of error of roughly plus or minus five percentage points:
Further analysis of the survey data reveal that Senator Clinton is heavily favored by women, receiving 49 percent, as opposed to 29 percent for Senator Obama. Among men, Senator Obama holds a substantial edge, receiving 46 percent of the vote, as compared to 31 percent for Senator Clinton.The age breakdown shows a trend similar to that of other states. Younger voters favor Senator Obama to Senator Clinton (44 percent to 41 percent), whereas older voters express greater support for Clinton over Obama (51 percent, compared to 23 percent). Notably, fewer undecided voters comprise the 18-29 age group (16 percent) than the 65 and over age group (25 percent).
There is an awfully large proportion of undecided voters in this survey, so perhaps it does not provide the best metric upon which to predict what might happen in the state today. At the same time, Hillary Clinton was expected to be able to win Rhode Island handily and easily, and this poll -- along with the next most recent survey, one from Fleming & Associates showing Clinton up 9 points -- seems to call that bit of common wisdom into question. As such, Rhode Island just might not be as much of a foregone conclusion for Clinton as many now believe.
Tags: Democratic primaries, Rhode Island, Rhode Island Primary (all tags)









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