Final Rhode Island Poll

Because as much as you want to know what's happening in Texas and Ohio, you know in your heart that you really want to know what the situation in Rhode Island is. For that we turn to Brown University (.pdf):

Hillary Clinton: 42 percent
Barack Obama: 37 percent

From the internals of the poll, which was in the field from February 27 through March 2 and had a margin of error of roughly plus or minus five percentage points:

Further analysis of the survey data reveal that Senator Clinton is heavily favored by women, receiving 49 percent, as opposed to 29 percent for Senator Obama.  Among men, Senator Obama holds a substantial edge, receiving 46 percent of the vote, as compared to 31 percent for Senator Clinton.    

The age breakdown shows a trend similar to that of other states. Younger voters favor Senator Obama to Senator Clinton (44 percent to 41 percent), whereas older voters express greater support for Clinton over Obama (51 percent, compared to 23 percent).  Notably, fewer undecided voters comprise the 18-29 age group (16 percent) than the 65 and over age group (25 percent).  

There is an awfully large proportion of undecided voters in this survey, so perhaps it does not provide the best metric upon which to predict what might happen in the state today. At the same time, Hillary Clinton was expected to be able to win Rhode Island handily and easily, and this poll -- along with the next most recent survey, one from Fleming & Associates showing Clinton up 9 points -- seems to call that bit of common wisdom into question. As such, Rhode Island just might not be as much of a foregone conclusion for Clinton as many now believe.

Tags: Democratic primaries, Rhode Island, Rhode Island Primary (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

We will see.  Obama has had the most difficult time in NE states with large numbers of Catholic voters.  That pretty much describes Rhode Island, so I'm still expecting HRC to win there by a pretty large margin.  

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 10:48AM | 0 recs
Sr. Economic Advisor Edwards Supports Obama

Leo Hindery, Jr.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leo-hinder y-jr/why-im-endorsing-barack-_b_89487.ht ml

Leo Hindery, Jr. is Senior Economic Policy Advisor for Senator John Edwards. He is managing partner of the media private equity firm InterMedia Partners.

excerpt

It was inspiring for me to be John Edwards' Senior Economic Policy Advisor. But the issues and the solutions that were important to us in the Edwards Campaign, and which have been embraced by millions of working Americans and taxpayers, are also Senator Obama's. And so I invite every worker, labor and business leader, voter and economist who wanted John Edwards to be president to now help Barack Obama in his Campaign.

by dearreader 2008-03-04 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Perhaps I should clarify:  I want Obama to win everywhere.  I just remain skeptical about RI for the reasons mentioned.  

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 11:06AM | 0 recs
Hillary - takes more than Giuliani/Huckabee

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/#786 57

Excerpt
As many now know, Hillary Clinton served on the exclusive Wal-Mart board of directors from 1986 to 1992. What many may not know is she is currently the top recipient of campaign contributions from Wal-Mart executives, taking in more than Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee.

by dearreader 2008-03-04 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary - takes more than Giuliani/Huckabee

Oh, lets not get irrational about things.  Sure, that's a minus for her.  It's also true that Walmart is an Arkansas corporation and that she was the first lady of Arkansas at the time.  Every politician has to pay attention to their states' interests.  

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 12:25PM | 0 recs
Also Interesting to Note...

Obama took some time off Texas and Ohio to spend a bit of time campaigning in RI last week.  I think we can expect at the very least that it'll be closer than the double digit losses that were being predicted by the last polls there.

by Brillobreaks 2008-03-04 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Hey, what's going on? I can't see my posts...

by Check077 2008-03-04 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Okay, nevermind...

by Check077 2008-03-04 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

So he's closing the gap in RI but Clinton has caught up in Texas? That makes no sense.

I think we're going to find, when the deed is done, that the polls were even less predictive of the 3/4 for results than has been the norm.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-04 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

A win in RI would be a minor earthquake for the Clinton campaign.  If she were to only win Ohio, I think the media narrative on that would not be favorable to her.  Of course, a scenario where he pulls off the upset in RI might also be one where he sweeps, in which case it's a moot point, because her campaign will be "ringing down the curtain and joining the choir invisbule, because it's bleeding demised! This is an ex-campaign!"

sorry, got carried away.;)

by megaplayboy 2008-03-04 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

What are you talking about?  Is that even English?

by ctyankee70 2008-03-04 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Yes... English English

"This campaign has ceased to be! it pining for the fjiords"

by Wiz in Wis 2008-03-04 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

No, no, 'e's ah... he's resting.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-03-04 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

The great youtube explains all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ02 18

by soccerandpolitics 2008-03-04 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

I couldn't find any late breaking polls when the predictions thread went up, so I predicted the race would be closer than the earlier polls indicated since there was some actual campaigning there - I still think Hillary wins, but not by 10. Hopefully this will make me right ;)

by mattw 2008-03-04 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

I'm pining for the fjords after reading some of these inscrutable comments.

by ctyankee70 2008-03-04 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

hmmm, open primary or not?

if it's open, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one tied up. The question is, do the Brown and RISD students vote in favor of Obama in huge numbers?

by alex100 2008-03-04 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Brown students are from all over and are probably registered in their home states/countries....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-04 11:42AM | 0 recs
Are you seriously

taking this poll seriously?

42-37?

That's 79 percent! There's no WAY 21 percent of RI voters are going for other or undecided.

This poll is really flawed. Toss it out.

by DoubleDs 2008-03-04 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

Hillary's math problem:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output /print

by global yokel 2008-03-04 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll


"As many now know, Hillary Clinton served on the exclusive Wal-Mart board of directors from 1986 to 1992."

Yep, and she also had one of those ridiculous $30K/year no-show Board seats with cement manufaturer LaFarge, one of the world's worst polluters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Cli nton

by global yokel 2008-03-04 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Final Rhode Island Poll

And this is related to the Rhode Island poll how?

But since you're going there, did you see the pictures of Obama's house and the lot that Rezko bought?  Woweee.  I didn't think it was a big deal until I saw that it's a mansion.  Apparently Obama wanted to buy the lot next door, but the house was enough of a stretch, so his pal Rezko, who was bankrupt at the time, had his wife pay $600K for the lot.  She, by the way, had a reported income of $37,000 at the time.  

Everyone can play this game!

by ctyankee70 2008-03-04 12:07PM | 0 recs

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