Good for Penn, I wonder what kind of bonus he gets from the GOP if he manages to re-institute FL and MI?

Good question. We'll see.

I continue to be amazed that more people aren't worried about the Clinton strategy and its consequences.  The numbers don't add up for them, so they are planning to hang in there and hope that the superdelegates come their way.  A more certain prescription for disaster cannot be imagined.  

Polls are certainly showing TX to be tight. I guess Obama has written off OH.

There's no realistic way for Clinton to bring FL and MI back into play, so I don't know why those here seem to believe it is going to happen.

This is their m.o.  Haven't they always said this sort of thing, except always with different figures:

Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: "After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived `momentum.'" [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]

Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates." [Politico, 2/13/08]

Howard Wolfson: "I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio." [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]

New York Times: "Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates." [NYT, 2/22/08]

Some very good spin!  This is the best work of the campaign so far!  Mark Penn is finally starting to earn his money...

But, that's all it is... spinning a very bad situation...  The "buyers remorse" line is especially telling... "We smeared this guy, so, and buyers remorse!"

So, if the superdelegates override the will of the voters, how is Hillary going to appease the over 50% of voters who voted against her who have become completely disenfranchised?  Would she put Barack in as VP?  She could use the money and organizational infrastructure...  I know for a fact that the Obama staff here would be willing to do the same work for her as they did with Barack...

Or will we just "not matter"?  My disappointment with the possibility of a Hillary candidacy isn't about her, but her campaign is going to ignore so many places, we're going to lose coattails.. and what may have been a 70 seat gain in congress may only be 3 or so...  Unless, of course, she's learned something from Barack's campaign...  It seems like she has.

She's going to have a LOT of trouble in the GE, so maybe this recent dose of fear forcing her to accept the 50 state strategy as a powerful tool is a good thing...  If she's learning on the job as a candidate, then that bodes well for her presidency.

But, we'll see... there is a LONG way to go... the math is waaaaaay against her!  But, she's not dropping out... even if she loses all four states...  We shall see what happens!

If Clinton wins by bringing Florida and Michigan back in, it will devastate the democrats this fall.  It doesn't matter how stupid the situation in FL and MI is, that was the rules.  Change the rules midstream and appear to take the election from Obama and we will destroy ourselves.  Clinton will do anything to win, Obama supporters outraged, etc. etc. will be the whole story going to the election.   Are we this fucking stupid?  Suck it up and realize that the rules were stupid and unfair in some ways but they were also the same for everyone and everyone knew them and destroying our whole election  chance is insanity.

I dunno, but I do know that the majority who actually register as Democrats support Hillary.

Plus she'll win RI easily, perhaps by more than any other state she's won. And VT will be closer than people think. Vermonters do not like to be polled and frequently give wrong answers. Despite their rivalry with NH they are actually quite similar demographically.

I'm a Hillary supporter, but this movement over the weekend to her side depresses me, and here's why: It's all about money. In fact, the whole freakin' nomination is just about money. Obama has won wherever he's had the $$ advantage (anywhere from 2:1 to 5:1 depending on the state). This weekend Hillary has money, so she's moving. It would be nice to think that these things are decided by grassroots campaigning and all that. But it's just NOT.

I enjoy when the Clinton campaign brings up FL and MI because it always makes the usual suspects freak out.  Oh no, she'll destroy the party, blah blah blah.  Comical.

I just don't understand how it's conscionable for any candidate in a democracy to accept votes from a state where her opponent was taken off the ballot, or where citizens were told in advance that their vote would not count.  A full revote in both states is the only way to fairly include MI & FL's delegates, though I don't think that's going to happen.  Our margin over the GOP is not wide enough to accommodate the massive internal discontent that ignoring the rules to seat those delegates would cause.  It would be an ultimate pyrrhic victory for Hillary -- to destroy the Democratic Party in order to become its candidate.

Florida maybe, Michigan no. And I would be genuinely concerned for the fall in Michigan if something isn't don't to reach out to disenfranchised Michigan voters.  

McCain campaigned heavily in Michigan and gave Romney a run for his money.  It was McCain campaigning in Michigan that pushed the economy to the top of the Democratic agenda.  In Michigan, McCain is looking like a hero -- the only candidate who gave a damn when no one else did.

Michigan is unique in economic devastation.  The ecomony has sucked in Michigan for years while everything else was booming.  There is more hardluck in Michigan than anywhere else in the country right now.

Regardless of it's solid blueness, Michigan is usually close and in desperate straits, passed over and left out of the fun, blown off by all but John McCain.  If I were Howard Dean I'd be bending over backwards to kiss Michigan ass right now -- fund a new primary or pay for it in  the fall.

One Michigan = Six and a half Idahos.

I exaggerated

We'd need to take Idaho, Kansas, Nevada and Maine just to make up for the loss.

Mainers hate negative politics, Clinton only got 39% in the Maine caucuses, and they tend to like candidates they see as independent (as McCain is often seen).

So don't count Maine as a state for Clinton in November.

If Hillary wins OH and TX, VT and RI, and then the next 7 primaries and caucuses in a row, while Obama falters behind some 20, 30 points in each race... and in the successor races brings Obama's lead from 30 points up to statistically even the day before the election...

... then yeah, Hillary's totally got the mo.

But I'm sure the press would pretend that Obama is still a contender, despite there being no mathmatical way he could catch up in any delegate calculus. They're so Anti-Hillary, that press.

I'm sure if the reverse were true and Obama won 11 in a row with all the momentum at his back, and overcame 30 point deficiets in Ohio and TX, Hillary would be toast, no?

A new 30 second ad that will clinch her upset win in Texas!

3/3/2008
New Ad: Hillary Promises Never to Be Too Busy to Defend Our National Security

30-Second Television Spot, "True" To Air in the Lone Star State

The Clinton campaign today announced it is broadcasting a new television ad in Texas highlighting Senator Clinton's promise to defend our nation's security by fighting Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, commitment to bringing our troops home from Iraq, and readiness to be Commander-in-Chief.

As a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Clinton worked to provide body armor to our troops fighting in Iraq and deliver health care benefits to our veterans. Senator Obama, as chairman of an oversight committee charged with the force of fighting Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, was too busy running for President to hold even one hearing.

The 30-second spot, entitled "True," comes the day before Texas voters head to the polls on March 4th.

Following is the script for the ad.

Hillary For President
"True"
TV : 30

Announcer: Barack Obama says he has the judgment to be president.

But as chairman of an oversight committee charged with the force of fighting Al Qaeda in Afghanistan - he was too busy running for president to hold even one hearing.

Barack Obama: "I became chairman of this committee, at the beginning of this campaign-at the beginning of 2007, so it is true that we haven't had oversight hearings on Afghanistan."

Announcer: Hillary Clinton will never be too busy to defend our national security-bringing our troops home from Iraq and pursing Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Hillary Clinton: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."