The lifeline strategy
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 06:11:39 PM EDT
Something wild? Watch this video and then think about what Clinton's implying:
Clinton sounds ready to throw down over MI and FL, all the way to the convention. The thing is, she may have an opening to go there.
Consider this, with the FL and MI delegates counted... Now, some of you immediately are wound up with just the thought but spare us from flipping out in the comments. Show me if my math doesn't add up, or if I'm missing something, but don't get worked up.
Including MI & FL, Clinton is only behind in pledged-delegates by 46-56 delegates, which could be halved in Pennsylvania alone. 46 is the number going off of DCW, but 56 is what I got when using the Obama counting of pledged delegates, and adding in the 67 Obama got from FL and the 178 that Clinton got from FL and MI, that results in a 1485-1429 difference of delegates. DCW has a 1473 to 1427 margin. I imagine that 46-56 number gets updated a bit up and down with further final results coming in from the previous contests. It also should be noted that there are, in addition, 55 uncommitted delegates from MI, and 31 delegates still aligned with Edwards.
Obama's got everything going for him right now, he's in position to claim a victory by nearly all the measurements, most importantly the pledged delegate lead and the popular vote. However, he may have left an opening to Clinton by not fully cooperating with Clinton and the DNC to find a way to let MI and FL re-vote. They don't want to chance Clinton winning two more big states, but by not going along with it, they give Clinton a lifeline via her ability to count those states as they stand, and possibly, if Clinton manages to pick up enough pledged delegates, counting the FL and MI results from January, to claim she has the lead in pledged delegates.
The popular vote too, via RCP's numbers, has Clinton lifelines via FL's votes being counted, and less so (argumentatively at least), with MI's. Ironically, that might come down to whether Clinton is really strong in Puerto Rico, as some believe (Obama's online supporters have been touting the support of PR's Gov. but that ain't looking so hot right now). It's possible that 2 million could vote in that primary. On that note, you really have to go check out this nifty interactive counter by Jay Cost.
You are in denial of the potential reality of all that above? OK, then go and read another answer.