..that his internals are relieving, and outside of the margin of error.  Unfortunately, a poll is still a poll.

Statistical dead heats indicate there won't be a real net change in pledged delegates.

Hillary still needs 20 point wins in both states for it to mean anything.

That means there will be huge amounts of pressure for her to leave the race starting on Wednesday. I suspect the Super Delegate lead will change hands before Friday. Also, the pressure will end up affecting her position in the Senate should she refuse to read the handwriting on the wall.

Even with two wins, it's still a loss for her. Small wins simply are not good enough.

The Dispatch's methodology is interesting.  They use mailed-in ballots that were sent randomly to the homes of registered Democrats and Republicans.    Not Independents.   Also, there's no specifics on whether Republicans and Democrats were presented the option of choosing someone from the opposite party.  There's also no indication on when their list of registered voters was last updated.

It's not a matter of taking it to the bank. Obviously there's risk. A bank doesn't pay nearly 50/50 for an investment of a few weeks, days or even hours.

You always want Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA pointing in your direction. Hillary has trended upward in Ohio today on Intrade, up 3.3% to roughly 55/45 theoretical likelihood.

I respect Walt Starr dating many years to DU, but he's in orbit if he thinks there will be considerable pressure for Hillary to depart if she wins both Texas and Ohio, regardless of the margin. The press loves winners and the delegate count will be a second tier theme compared to the popular vote outcome in the two biggies. The emerging focus, given a Hillary sweep in those two states, will be her dominance of the heavily populated states.

It's very true the bottom line toward the nomination won't alter significantly, if at all. Obama is trading at roughly 86/14 on Intrade. BTW, that's considerably higher than Hillary every reached. The press deserves to be scolded for ignorant portrayal of the race, insisting Obama has made a miraculous comeback when Hillary was always in the 50/50 range and not much higher, to emerge as the Democratic nominee. For basically a year she was a slight favorite versus the Field for the nomination, and 2/1 to 3/1 to become president. That's less than even money, for those who don't dabble in odds. Pure ignorant mythology she was an odds-on juggernaut.

It doesn't matter what the latest polls say. This thing has been over for the past two weeks.  Hillary's only chance was to win EACH of the big states on 3/4 by 20 or more points and then hold on until PA and win THAT by a similar margin. Once her numbers for OH and TX started to erode under the drumbeat of Obaman's unanswered 11 February primary victories in smaller states, she went the way of Rudy.  

The danger here is that she will try to challenge the TX caucus vote if she loses there so she can avoid the conversation about it being over until some court speaks on the lawsuit. This sort of thing just damages the party and leaves her a tarnished legacy.

She should concede Tuesday night unless she astounds everyone which huge wins in BOTH states.

Given that Sen. Obama won 11 in a row, and his prolific prowess as a fundraising juggernaut, we should not be having this conversation. Add the Clinton campaign's missteps he should be winning everything in his sight.

How could she lose 11-0 and raise $35m? Could it be that most Democrats want her to be the nominee? She should remain in the race if she wins two out of four.

Before voting stations close in Texas and Ohio, all eyes will be on those 2 states, but unless the early returns show Clinton with a 10 point lead in at least one of those 2 states, then people are going to turn out the lights and call this one done.
The bigger day is going to be Wednesday, in which everyone will be curious as to what Clinton will do.

I've been pretty accurate in my predictions since prior to the Potomac Primary. I'll continue to stand by those.

Texas is an OPEN Primary/Caucus.
A Texas reporter estimated that Democrats are likely to make up only about 55% to 60% of voters in the Texas Democratic primary/caucus.
Hate to point out the obvious:
We DEMOCRATS, and only Democrats, should select our Presidential nominee.
Independents and Republicans are welcome to vote for the Democratic Presidential Nominee in the General Election, but only after we DEMOCRATS elect our nominee.

I haven't seen one single post anywhere on the Internets by a Hillary supporter that lays out a viable scenario where she could have the lead in pledged delegates going into the convention.  Thus, it becomes obvious that Hillary and her supporters are hoping that she can somehow persuade the superdelegates to vote her way, against the expressed wishes of the electorate.  Think about where that takes us as a Party;  it would be catastrophic.  The fact that the Hillaryites have yet to grasp what's going on here is very telling, and more than a little disturbing.

Still waiting on SurveyUSA, the only poll (besides the one on election day) that matters.

When do they release their new one, tonight or tomorrow?

Their methodology is beyond suspect (see: Online polls) and actually repeats the same self-selection problem that led to the rise of modern polling (I forgot the name of the publication, but a magazine did something similar in 1932 and picked Hoover over Roosevelt).

O has won in caucus states that Hillary has spent less time concentrating in.  She came in late to Iowa, and didn't concentrate until the end in Washington, but in Nevada, a place where Hillary really made an effort, she won.  So too with Texas.  She has spent a considerable amount of time there, and it will pay off.  Obama's specialty is also small states.  Texas is not in his specialty range.  

I don't want to buy into this but it does worry me, I mean what if she views an Obama loss in 2008 as the only way she'll get a shot at the White House (2012)?

This thing is over you guys.  Ohio matters toward the G.E, Texas is a lost for us in the G.E so we must only hope that Obama can connect with the Ohioans the same way he has connected in other parts of the nation.

I think come november, its wont matter, McCain is goign to win. why do I say that? Because republicans will come home...despite their misgivings about McCain, they desperately dotn want to see Hillary or Obama....and in the end experience, particularly military and foreign policy is going to trump everything else......unless....the economy reallly tanks. In that case Obama wins...