PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up
by Todd Beeton, Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:52:05 AM EDT
The expectations about the results of North Carolina's May 6 primary is pretty much set as a likely Obama win but if the latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll (521 LVs, March 17, MOE +/- 4.3%) is right, we may be in for a closer race than previously thought.
|Candidate||March 17||March 3||RCP 3-poll Ave.|
At first glance it looks as though Obama is shedding support to Undecided as opposed to Hillary Clinton but the analysis tells a slightly different story.
The biggest movement in Clinton's direction since PPP's poll two weeks ago is among female voters. Obama led them by 4 in the last survey, Clinton now has a 2 point advantage.
They also see Clinton benefiting from fall-out from the Jeremiah Wright controversy, as they have found elsewhere.
The internals of the poll do demonstrate some real room for movement for Barack Obama, though, as his margin over Clinton among African-Americans is a relatively modest 72-19 and Clinton is currently leading among 18-29 year-olds by 12 points. But still, PPP warns against assuming North Carolina is Obama country.
Some folks in the national media seem to have written off North Carolina for Obama but it looks like the state could be up for grabs, particularly if Obama can't put his recent bad press behind him quickly.