PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

The expectations about the results of North Carolina's May 6 primary is pretty much set as a likely Obama win but if the latest Public Policy Polling (D) poll (521 LVs, March 17, MOE +/- 4.3%) is right, we may be in for a closer race than previously thought.

CandidateMarch 17March 3RCP 3-poll Ave.
Obama444746.7
Clinton434341.3
Undecided1310

At first glance it looks as though Obama is shedding support to Undecided as opposed to Hillary Clinton but the analysis tells a slightly different story.

The biggest movement in Clinton's direction since PPP's poll two weeks ago is among female voters. Obama led them by 4 in the last survey, Clinton now has a 2 point advantage.

They also see Clinton benefiting from fall-out from the Jeremiah Wright controversy, as they have found elsewhere.

The internals of the poll do demonstrate some real room for movement for Barack Obama, though, as his margin over Clinton among African-Americans is a relatively modest 72-19 and Clinton is currently leading among 18-29 year-olds by 12 points. But still, PPP warns against assuming North Carolina is Obama country.

Some folks in the national media seem to have written off North Carolina for Obama but it looks like the state could be up for grabs, particularly if Obama can't put his recent bad press behind him quickly.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, North Carolina Primary (all tags)

Comments

54 Comments

Edwards Support would be Key

Senator Edwards would be key to winning - I would say a 5-10% swing.

by indus 2008-03-19 09:54AM | 0 recs
NC is the new firewall

Let us see if it holds...for Obama, that is !!

by SevenStrings 2008-03-19 10:02AM | 0 recs
Expectations

If the expectations are "pretty much set" for Obama more than six weeks before the primary, then why were expectations for Clinton always set from the polls immediately before a race that showed Obama closing the gap, despite 20-point Clinton leads a few weeks previously?

by KCinDC 2008-03-19 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

---
And it is just beginning, IMO.
---

We will see.  My guess is that the Bo speech did exactly what was needed: stem the bleeding.

by Timetheos 2008-03-19 10:02AM | 0 recs
it makes me sick that people rejoice
in seeing Obama smeared over something someone else said.  Cynically, I know most Americans are too fucking stupid and lazy to actually go beyond those excerpts, actually listen to the full half hour of Obama's speach, or read it, or look into the works of Rev. Wright and his ministry in the context of its full 30 years.
Nope, we know, because it works, that we need only insinuate and smear and that the sound bite consumption mentality of the average voter will work its mysterious magic.
Congrats, Hillary.  It's not that you're winning, you're just making him lose.
by Richard Woodcock II 2008-03-19 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: it makes me sick that people rejoice

Who's rejoicing? We've watched since his New Hampshire loss as Obama tried to turn Hillary Clinton and the last Democratic President into racists. Who wins that game?

Well, now you know, the Republicans win that game.

by souvarine 2008-03-19 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: it makes me sick that people rejoice

---
Who's rejoicing?
---

If you look at Universal's post, it almost seems he/she is:  "Excellent news for HRC."

by Timetheos 2008-03-19 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: it makes me sick that people rejoice

Especially since it's such a stupid, stupid controversy. Pat Robertson blamed America for 9/11; no Republican was asked to disown him. The matter never came up at election time then and it's not coming up now that McCain has been endorsed by a Catholic-bashing bigot.

by Friday 2008-03-19 02:11PM | 0 recs
Obama does NOT need a win in NC
Obama does not need a win in NC. He does not need a firewall. Have you seen the delegate count? Clinto n is way behind and she needs to pick up significant numbers of delegates. A close finish in NC does nothing to help her.
by xtrarich 2008-03-19 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama does NOT need a win in NC

Clinton is almost certainly going to win Pennsylvania, West Virginia,  and Kentucky -- and it's hard to imagine her winning North Carolina without winning Indiana the same day (I would presume her chances in IN are better than in NC).

Do you really think she can win five straight primaries, all in sizeable states, this late in the game without causing strong movement of super delegates in her direction?

And yes, it's true that Obama put together a longer winning streak earlier in the campaign (albeit with a very different mix of states), but in a race that is nearly tied I would expect super delegates to go with the candidate that is rising in strength, and not one who has tanked.

by markjay 2008-03-19 10:11AM | 0 recs
3 weeks is a lifetime

and math is math.

by Richard Woodcock II 2008-03-19 10:30AM | 0 recs
That's fine as long as

after winning all these contests Clinton doesn't start getting a noticible lead in the national polls.

The best arguement Hillary will have if she blows Obama out in PA, wins IN and NC, and blow him out in KY and WV, is momentum. After a string of victors Hillary could build her lead in the National polls. Are super delegates going to nominate a candidate who finished on a string of major loses, only winning a few small states like SD and MT (by smaller margins that he was expected to), and with National polls averaging a 5 to 10 point lead for his opponent? They'll be a delema in having to choose between the candidate who looks stronger with the momentum, or the one that has more pledged delegates. Either side would have a strong case. Obama needs to worry about it.

by Christopher Lib 2008-03-19 10:42AM | 0 recs
don't worry, the NYT now has
Obama walking in the footsteps of JFK, LBJ and Abe LIncoln.
This repeated in TWO (2) pieces, no less.
Time for SNL.
by earthoat 2008-03-19 10:07AM | 0 recs
Re: don't worry, the NYT now has

After last week's anti-Hillary rant on Weekend update, I've vowed that SNL is off my TIVO.

by Sensible 2008-03-19 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

NC will be competitive.  It is actually amazing.  Being a Tarheel myself, I am thrilled at the opportunity to cast my vote in the primary.  I am a 33 year old, college gradute, with a cellphone only, who loves to throw back a beer or enjoy a good glass a wine, and is thrilled to be voting between the choices.  I am still swaying toward Clinton but was marginally impressed with Senator Obama and his speech yesterday.

As for the John Edwards factor...He won't hold much impact here.  A lot of us felt he really didn't accomplish much as a one term senator for our lovely pine covered state.

by mashews 2008-03-19 10:08AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

NC will be competitive but unless O slips in his % among African-Americans he still has to be the strong favorite to win.  It won't be a Georgia or Virginia-style blowout, because, outside of Chapel Hill, urban white Dems in NC aren't as liberal as urban white Dems in GA (esp Atlanta area) or VA (esp Northern VA), and because the A-A percentage of the Democratic vote isn't quite as high.

I agree about Edwards.  He doesn't have much sway.  And he knows it.  Which is why he probably won't endorse before the NC primary.  Could get someone a day or two of good press but that's about it.

My sense is NC really is a must win for O.  If he loses, it's hard to see where else he wins (maybe Oregon?)  His February run will be a long distant memory by then.

 

by Dooley 2008-03-19 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Edwards will be on Leno tomorrow, so he's got something to say, we'll see what it is.  I think his support for Hillary will speed up the "white flight" from Obama's campaign thanks to Rev. Wright.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-03-19 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I think an Edwards endorsement would help Hillary or Obama but I am not sure how much at this point.  

by JustJennifer 2008-03-19 10:09AM | 0 recs
by katmandu1 2008-03-19 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

You should ask the Daily Kosafacists?

by pollbuster 2008-03-19 10:14AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Great addition to the discussion.

by Chavez100 2008-03-19 10:38AM | 0 recs
I don't get that kind of smarm

quit bashing Kos just b/c most of them seem to have decided that BO is the real progressive candidate and Hillary is an instrument of the democratic establishment.

Look, I'm sure when HRC trundles into convention next August, short on delegates, states and popular votes, she'll make a compelling case for 30 years of continuous Clinton/Bush rule.

But don't call the guys at d.kos fascists.  Don't you see when you do that, you make yourself virtually indistinguishable from the people you hope to run against in the GE?

...or maybe you're one of those Republican "switch voters" who changed party to vote for Hillary when you really hate her?

by Richard Woodcock II 2008-03-19 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't get that kind of smarm

Obama is not as progressive as his fancy speeches make you think he is.

He is no different that Hillary- an establishment politician.  He just makes better speeches.  He won't change anything.  He'll just make a special speech to explain it away.

by stefystef 2008-03-19 11:57AM | 0 recs
cynic

it's okay to hope for more.

by Richard Woodcock II 2008-03-20 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Yes, it was Kos' fault when Hillary started talking up McSame.

by Timetheos 2008-03-19 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Yes, Obama may have room for movement, but Hillary leading by only 2 points with females also shows potential for real movement in her direction...

by pollbuster 2008-03-19 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I'm guessing that is due to AA females.  What we've seen, and why Obama often increases his poll-lead with votes, is that AA voters like to hold late before telling pollsters who they are voting for.  I've seen this in local races as well... A weeks out SC, GA, AL, and MS were all reporting Obama's AA vote right over 70 and that jumped in the exits to 82-92.

by CardBoard 2008-03-19 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

The madness will end after a blowout in PA when the SDs convince Obama to either step out completely or to take a VP slot on Clinton's ticket.

Until then the bleeding will continue. The speech did not help and the media slobbering all over Obama will just make it worse. People are waking up and throwing up the koolaide.

by americanincanada 2008-03-19 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

wow, yea have you ever decided to give up during a game when you were ahead?????

by Chavez100 2008-03-19 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up
This unintelligent, and well as delusional.  
He can lose the rest of the states +10, and still be up in pledged delegates.  Please explain WHY he should get out.
by stryan 2008-03-19 10:38AM | 0 recs
I'll take Republican Trolltalk for $500, Alex

by Richard Woodcock II 2008-03-19 10:40AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

PPP has been really bad this cycle...so as usual wait for Survey USA.  I've talked to some friends in NC and understand the Clinton is not really on the ground there.  I don't have any friends in indiana who are politically interested... It appears that N.C. will be another VA where Hillery psuedo-competes.  

The last two weeks have been about as bad as one could imagine for Obama... I guess he could have been indicted or something... but really, the wheels should be coming off, and they are not - I think that is the take away.  If the next 4 weeks are marginally better, and I think yesterday was a turning point, he will win N.C.

by CardBoard 2008-03-19 10:34AM | 0 recs
Where has PPP been really bad?

They were one of the few pollsters to peg Obama's WI lead at double-digits; they came closest to predicting his victory margin in SC; and they weren't too far off in Texas (Clinton by 6) or Ohio (Clinton by 9). Maybe they don't get the percentages precisely right, but do well on the point-spread.

by Shawn 2008-03-19 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Hillary doesn't seem to focused on NC (that may change after the polls show it tightening this week) but I disagree about IN. There are a lot of Dems who are pretty excited to vote in the primary. I would liken their excitement to a last minute prom date--shock coupled with some excitement.

by hctb 2008-03-19 08:46PM | 0 recs
Margin of error

The margin of error is 4.3% (and for the subgroup of just women, it's probably more like 6%). So it's true that the race is close, but speculating about 2-point movements here or there is like hearing secret messages in radio static.

by KCinDC 2008-03-19 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I think the clintonistas need to relax before they jump the gun here

This is the most interesting internal:

"Clinton is currently leading among 18-29 year-olds by 12 points."

Really??? I don't buy it.  other than arkansas, name me one state that clinton beat obama in THIS demographic, by 12 points no less.

Obama beat her among 18-29 y/o in New York, her home state, by a wide margin

He beat her in this demographic by 10-20 points in Ohio and Texas

In states that surround N. Carolina, Obama won this demographic HUGE

I'm sorry, but I just don't buy any poll that has him way behind in this demographic

by uscpdx1 2008-03-19 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I believe women, white women imparticular, have abandoned Obama because of his campaign's damnation of Democratic female icon Geraldine Ferraro.  He played the race card with an innocent quote in an obscure newspaper and blasted her as a racist.  White women aren't gonna stand for that distortion and exploitation and they shouldn't.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-03-19 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I think if you listen to Obama's speech yesterday, he said that Ferraro SHOULDN'T be labeled a racist and that the media should focus on the real issues of the campaign

That being said, it wasn't just a "innocent quote" in an obscure newspaper.  She also repeated it on NPR and said basically the same thing about Jesse Jackson in 1988.... so there is a pattern there where she has basically said 2 different candidates at two different points in history were only doing as well as they were because they were black

by uscpdx1 2008-03-19 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

It was HIS campaign that portrayed her as a racist, for something she said clumsily but true nonetheless, that being black has helped him in this particular primary.  What other candidate would have gotten 90% of the black vote against a Clinton?

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-03-19 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

so all white women have abandoned sen obama. well, then i guess the democrats should just go ahead an throw in the towel now, because sen clinton has certainly lost the black vote, even if she wins the general, and especially if they suspect she was behind this james wright story. not only will the blacks not vote for clinton, neither will the millions of young folks of all colors who have flocked to obama. just go ahead and concede to mccain now. what with the fiasco in florida and michigan, the dems are THROWING the election anyway. how sad. and i thought we really had a chance this time!

by hueydixiepearl 2008-03-19 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I was listening to the Diane Reems show this morning on NPR. On it they had panelists discussing the speech by Obama yesterday. I listened as once again, Donna Brazile claimed that she was only a Democratic Strategist and had yet to support either candidate in the primaries. What a crock. She went on to blame Hillary Clinton for Obama's Rev. Wright problems. I have found an article written by Brazile dated 11/5/2004 in Slate where she talks about the influence the church has had on her own family and how she urged them to walk out of the sermons.

"When one of my sisters--who, coincidentally, is a recovering Republican--was told in church that she would go to hell if she voted for Sen. Kerry, she stood up and denounced the preacher's message. Oh yeah, the religious right, armed with new recruits from the black pulpits, came after African-Americans with the same angry messages. But, as my niece confirmed in a phone conversation this week, they all voted for John Kerry anyway. Even my sister, the once-proud Republican, is now ashamed of what happened inside those churches.

You see, despite our personal differences on matters of faith and religion, we believe that in order to be good disciples of Jesus, you have to not only know his words but also perform his deeds. That is where we draw the line with those who spend hours and hours in church, only to come out and hate everyone around them."

The link to the article:
www.slate.com/id/2109328

Its about time for her to open up and declare that she is supporting Barack Obama as she makes the rounds on every pundit show that will let her speak. She's everywhere. How about a little honesty.

by glennmcgahee 2008-03-19 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

I couldn't agree more.  For her to claim she is "uncommitted" is laughable.  If Carville and Begala have to be labeled repeatedly as Clinton surrogates by CNN, Brazile should be held to the same standard.  Same goes for another shameless shill; Eugene Robinson.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-03-19 11:23AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Clinton is gaming the system

Win big states but not small ones

Ignore red and purple states in the primary

Do not build campagn organizations where you aren't competitive

Build your game plan on winning just enough states to get 27o elkectoral votes

Clinton wants to win the nomination by winning Big Blue States (that Obama will win also in November) and a handful of others

That is the thinking that put Kerry in a bind in WI, NM and IA and others where the entire strategy became win OH.  

The Democrats have the money advantage to full court press toss up states, leans GOP states and some likely GOP states.  It is not unrealistic to see the Dem nominee have strong campagns in 30-35 states (Utah, Idaho, the Dakotas and Alasak are probably not good opportunities but everywhere else why not?)

We can build the kind of majorities for a Democratic Prez that Carter had in 77 and 78.

My problem with Hillary (and I will support her enthusiatically if hse wins the nomination) is she seems to be settling for the slam dunks and buzzer beaters rather than dragging McCain all Fall all other the electoral map

With Obama, I see a camdidate that is building the field organizations in state after state that will deliver on Election night

by kmwray 2008-03-19 11:16AM | 0 recs
Only in America

are people's panties getting moist over what a Pastor says.  These people are not God, but you choose to take their words seriously.  What is next, admonishing Michelle's gynecologist because of his radical views on global warming?  Are we going to lynch Obama sister's brother in law who thinks differently than you?  This is a disgusting display of American politics and the world is laughing.  Good job America

/5 years in Iraq and we are still talking about this shit!  

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-19 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Edwards is for Hillary. They will time his endorsement right before PA and then will go all out in North Carolina. Edwards endorsement means more than people are saying, his base is blue collar white MEN the swing group of this race.

by rossinatl 2008-03-19 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Also just a question in his capacity as the 2004 Democratic nominee for Vice President is Edwards a superdelegate?

by rossinatl 2008-03-19 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

No. Democratic former presidents and vice presidents are superdelegates, but those who were just candidates are not. Lieberman, for example, was never a superdelegate.

by KCinDC 2008-03-19 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Senators are not superdelegates?

by hctb 2008-03-19 08:48PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Only Democratic senators are superdelegates. Lieberman isn't a Democrat, so he was never a superdelegate during this cycle. Some people incorrectly think he was stripped of his status for endorsing McCain, but he didn't have any status to strip.

by KCinDC 2008-03-21 06:37AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Hillary will kick Obama's ass in North Carolina.  His support there keeps going down.  Stick a fork in that boy!!

by radiKal301 2008-03-19 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

i cannot believe that you would write "stick a fork in that boy". do you understand the meaning of your words? are you a racist? i hope not, but your language is that of a racist.

by hueydixiepearl 2008-03-20 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

pardon my ignorance, but what does IMO mean? are you really happy that the james wright story has hurt obama? has it occured to you that if it hurts obama, it hurts all democrats? would you still feel the same if sen clinton chose sen obama as her running mate? who do you think is behind the james wright story?

by hueydixiepearl 2008-03-19 03:46PM | 0 recs
PPP poll - next time try a Ouija board

He might not make it in NC - there's certainly reason to believe he's losing support.

But I wouldn't put much stock in a PPP poll.  They haven't been right very often this primary season, and there are reasons to doubt this poll in particular.  It shows BHO's AA support at only 63%.  I have a hard time believing it will be that low in the general, or that the Wright situation and/or his speech cost him support with AA voters.

by TL 2008-03-20 04:08AM | 0 recs
Re: PPP Poll Shows North Carolina All Tied Up

Ok, this Wright stuff is disturbing, very. But the bigger problem I have for Mr. Obama is his pattern of saying one thing and then distancing himself from those words when the opposite is revealed at a later date. That is called "spin", people. We have a need and right to know Senator Obama from every angle and what he believes when he talks of equality and a "vision" for America.

To say that Clinton +/or Obama is at fault for the direction the Democratic campaign has headed, is ludicrous and short-sighted. America is a melting pot of races, genders, culture, etc. and we each have a personal interest in seeing "ourselves" in our President. With that connection comes passion and emotional investment. However, it also must be tempered with information about the candidates (good and bad, without negative "label" attached to said information) so that we can make informed choices, rather than only emotionally-driven ones. To Americans: try to take off the blinders of opinion polls, media spin, mud and excitement. That person is Senator Clinton. She has worked hard and diligently for all Americans, and spent years building strong relationships because she has a passionate vision of what America can be, not just because she's running for President. Vetted, intelligent, tested and hardworking.

Senator Clinton is the right choice for me in '08

by lukas24 2008-03-20 09:21PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads