Obama gains 6 10 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

The Iowa County Conventions were held today, the second stage in Iowa's caucus process. Remember, the original delegate estimates were Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14. After today, from Chuck Todd at NBC:

We have final delegate allocation estimates directly from the Iowa Democratic Party based on today's 99 county conventions.  The results, Obama indeed did gain 7 delegates to up his total from 16 (earned on Jan. 3) to 23 now. Clinton upped her total by 1, from 15 to 16 and Edwards dropped 8 delegates to 6. Those six will be up for grabs, perhaps, at the Iowa Democratic Party state convention in June.
Todd guesses at why Clinton did not pick up as many delegates as Obama:
One wonders if the Clinton campaign's trashing of the caucuses will end up hurting her when these caucus states meet to finalize and re-allocate their caucuses during their respective convention processes.

Update:The AP has it at 23/14/7, with one to be decided, so Obama could have a net gain of +7 to +9 according to this analysis.

Update: The AP and the Green Papers now have the count at 25/14/6, a net gain for Obama of 10 on the night.

Tags: Iowa (all tags)

Comments

93 Comments

Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Every little bit helps.

by Globe199 2008-03-15 04:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 10 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Obama added 5 more delegates from California.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-03-15 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 10 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

But he lost 2. So he netted 3 more from California.

by elrod 2008-03-15 11:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 10 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Yep - He increased his pledged delegate lead by 13 this weekend.

by politicsmatters 2008-03-16 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Well, I think this is particular to Iowa.  No other caucus states will have many Edwards delegates to divvy up.  Clinton didn't lose any of her own delegates.

by markjay 2008-03-15 04:01PM | 0 recs
also, I don't think the Edwards delegates

were reacting to any "trashing of the caucuses." The kind of people who want to be delegates to county conventions tend to be activist types, and I assume that most of those Edwards delegates preferred Obama to Clinton anyway.

by desmoinesdem 2008-03-15 04:45PM | 0 recs
Re: also, I don't think the Edwards delegates

I seem to recall from January that it was fairly clear that Hillary was way behind everyone else in second choices.  In other words, the consensus seemed to be that voters were either pro-Hillary or not, and if they weren't then they'd choose from the remaining candidates.

So I think these results are more indicative of the general will of the people and the sentiment of people who attended the caucus, as opposed to a reaction to recent events.  Edwards supporters in Iowa were simply more likely to have Obama as a second choice, it seems to me.

Now, from what I've seen, Edwards now has just over 15% support in terms of delegates for the state convention.  If I remember your diaries correctly, the 15% viability threshold applies at each stage.  The upshot would be that unless Edwards holds onto every single delegate at the next stage - probably an unlikely proposition - he wouldn't get any national delegates at all out of Iowa.

Feel free to correct me if you disagree on any of this.

by Steve M 2008-03-15 04:57PM | 0 recs
Is Edwards secretly encouraging his delegates

toward Obama?

by earthoat 2008-03-16 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

Considering the week that Obama has had with the press, I think this is a little more significant.   Mr. Teflon.

by Setrak 2008-03-15 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

I wonder what the mechanism was for reconnecting with Iowa. Was there a continuous connection with the two candidates with Iowa?

Did each candidate connect with the folks in Iowa differently?

by 12 dogs and a blog 2008-03-15 04:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Sorry missed this last thing.

I was glad that you are posting about the Iowa votes, with all the fussing back and forth, it's nice to see something on the actual process.

This isn't the last process is it? I think there is another level to Iowa' primary.

Thank you.

by 12 dogs and a blog 2008-03-15 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

April 26th will be the district conventions, then there's the state convention which is the final step. So we have 2 more levels.

by howiekent 2008-03-15 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Actually, 1 more level for the districts, and a parallel 1 more level for the state.

by msn1 2008-03-15 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

I don't think she picked up any of his delegates. They just did the final tally and found she had a few more. Same happened for Obama in CA. I believe he picked up 4 more after the final tally there.

by mcgish 2008-03-15 04:08PM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

Make sure you report that Obama got an extra two out of OH as well.  Kthnxbye

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-15 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Naturally, given Clinton's earlier statements about caucuses, Obama's winning these six delegates shouldn't count when we consider the overall strength of her candidacy.

by social democrat 2008-03-15 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

given Clinton's earlier statements about caucuses, Obama's winning these six delegates shouldn't count

They shouldn't count because Hillary has already declared Iowa is too unimportant to count?

Or they shouldn't count because the only reason Hillary is losing support in Iowa is that she has insulted Iowans saying they don't count and lied to Iowans about her opposition to counting MI and FL illegal straw poll delegates?  If the decision had been over on Super Tuesday, her lies and insults wouldn't matter so it's not fair to count the repercussions now.

by Brian Watkins 2008-03-15 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Anything to accelerate her Huckabeeness's withdrawal is a benefit to America.  Hurray!

by Carlo 2008-03-15 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

I think this discussion accomplishes little but giving false hope to Clinton supporters.  The simple math doesn't work for Hillary.  She won't have the lead in delegates and its doubtful she'll have the lead in the popular vote by the convention either, although I'm guessing that's what she's hanging her hat on.  I know it may be hard to take when she was the clear favorite at one point but she needs to suspend her campaign for the good of the party and her country.  All she'll do now is create bitterness and give McCain a better chance.  Mike Ciresi did the right thing for the party and country by stepping aside for Franken.  Hillary should do the same.

by Sven from St Cloud 2008-03-15 04:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

She's betting she can woo the superdelegates.  Otherwise, unless something totally dirty happens (don't discount the chance), she's done.

Furthermore, Hillary's campaign is not about America.  It's about Hillary.

by Globe199 2008-03-15 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

My question is, what argument are they going to use to do so?  Most of the uncommitted delegates are elected officials, not the DNC members who make up the majority of Clinton's current SD lead.

What argument will they not have heard for months?  If it hasn't already convinced them, why will it do so now?

No Clinton supporter has been able to answer this question.

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-15 04:26PM | 0 recs
Hard to Answer That Question

The Clinton campaign has done a great job explaining to everyone that superdelegates can override the votes of pledged delegates if the nomination race is close enough. But I don't think the campaign has advanced any convincing argument for why they should exercise that power.

In fact, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the most senior Democratic elected official, said just within the past 48 hours that the superdelegates should go along with the pledged delegates. I would have to assume that Pelosi's statement reflects the thinking of most elected officials on this issue.

In the modern (post-1968) Democratic Party there has never been a case of superdelegates overriding the pledged delegates. Quite the opposite: the superdelegates put the nominees over the top in 1984 and 1988. So a superdelegate "veto" would be unprecedented. For an unprecedented and, let's face it, anti-democratic exercise of raw power, there has to be a "damn good reason."

I don't know of any damn good reason.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

The problem with this is there aren't that many uncommitted superdelegates left to woo. If you run projections out to the convention, you'll find that Clinton has to capture about 80% of the remaining superdelegates. That just isn't likely to happen, unless for some reason Obama's superdelegates start to abandon him. So far, the only superdelegates to move have been from her to him.

She really is in Huckabee territory right now, just no one is willing to admit it. Everyone keeps talking like there is this vast pool of superdelegates left to rescue here, but there aren't.

by tysonpublic 2008-03-15 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

to say nothing of the oxygen she's sucking up from downballot races.

by thereisnospoon 2008-03-15 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa


this discussion accomplishes little but giving false hope

Can an Obama supporter actually use that phrase? If Obama HQ finds out will they take away your membership? Or just impose a fine? (just kidding...)

by blueflorida 2008-03-15 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

I was an delegate today at the Polk County convention. Hillary gained delegates here due to shortage of Edwards delegates.

I was surprised at how well the Obama people and the Clinton people got along. DailyKOs needs to make note of that.

The only tense moment was when Boswell spoke about Ralph Nader then Fallon came on apologizing for his Nader vote then attacking Boswell demanding he apologize for voting on the war, NCLB, and the Patriot Act.

by howiekent 2008-03-15 04:21PM | 0 recs
we've got a county convention thread

up at Bleeding Heartland. Feel free to drop by and share your story!

by desmoinesdem 2008-03-15 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Oops.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-03-15 04:22PM | 0 recs
Fascinating All These Delegate Changes

Too bad the MyDD Delegate Counter(TM) hasn't budged in eons.

To the MyDD Delegate Counter(TM) maintainer: that's OK. I understand life is full of better things to do. Honestly. So just one favor to ask, please: add a simple date stamp to the counter. "Last Updated: January 6, 1898" is fine, or whatever the date is. Hugs and kisses, thanks.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Fascinating All These Delegate Changes

In addition, isn't the "with Florida and Michigan" delegate counter looking increasingly moot as those states move toward DNC-sanctioned contests?

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 06:03PM | 0 recs
AP Says " at least seven delegates"

So it sounds more like a gain of 7 or 8 delegates for Obama.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080315/ap_o n_el_pr/democrats_iowa_4;_ylt=AgfTsvPjR0 oJ0gdvw64qOpwE1vAI

by Lefty Coaster 2008-03-15 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

I'm just glad the HRC people keep dismissing the caucus states.  I hope they keep doing it!

Repeat after me: the "Big 4", the "Big 4", the "Big 4".

Doesn't it always seem that the Clintons are fighting the last battle, rather than the new one?  Like the belief that a Democrat has to win Florida to win the presidency?

by thereisnospoon 2008-03-15 04:24PM | 0 recs
Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa
but wait! those were pledged delegates, representing the will of the people! surely the obama campaign will join me in condemning these nefarious activities by party bosses to thwart the people's voice... hey guys, where'd you go? they were here a minute ago....
by campskunk 2008-03-15 04:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

These actions represent the party bosses in retreat.  Once again Clintonistas define up as down and down as up.

by Carlo 2008-03-15 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

The Iowa party has been saying for weeks now that we should expect Edward's delegates to be flipped, because they didn't intend to send delegates to the national convention for a candidate who had withdrawn from the race.

by APoxOnBoth 2008-03-15 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

A little off the subject but I remember a speech I saw once on C-span by Hillary about foster care.  It held special interest for me because I've had several foster children in my home over the years and adopted one.  It was brilliant and dead on about the problems in the system and real soluctions and things that could be done to make it better.  I think it was the best speech I've ever heard from a politician.  Its so sad no-one sees this side of Clinton or Obama, only the crap about counting delegates, what some preacher said or whose spouse slept with who.  Would that any campaign was about such things again.

by Sven from St Cloud 2008-03-15 04:32PM | 0 recs
Great Point

I agree with you, Sven. There's way too much "horse race" coverage.  But it's even worse than you describe. The media bash the candidates for not having policy proposals or not being specific enough. But the same media refuse to cover policy details, details which are available at the .com campaign outposts for reporters to find and to explain to viewers and readers.

That said, there are occasional flashes of interesting policy discussions. Obama and Clinton have a genuine disagreement over whether there should be mandates forcing mid-life adults to buy private health insurance, and there was a lot of focus on that policy difference during the debates. (I happen to agree with Obama on this one, but Clinton makes a strong argument.) But I think the only reason that disagreement became known and got attention was because of the debate fireworks, the meta-story.

I think it's fair to say that the Clinton campaign's current "throw the kitchen sink" style is not conducive to level-headed policy discussions in the political arena. But hopefully we're coming out of that phase and can get some policy discussions going again.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 04:50PM | 0 recs
my deepest fear
As the delegate math and shedding of superdelegates becomes reality I fear Hillary will pull a "Lieberman" and bolt the party for an independent run.
Am I alone in this thinking?
 
by a148all 2008-03-15 04:34PM | 0 recs
Yes

by Etchasketchist 2008-03-15 04:43PM | 0 recs
I advise you to worry about

things that are more likely to happen this year, like the earth crashing into the sun.

by desmoinesdem 2008-03-15 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: my deepest fear

That would be fascinating.

Clinton wins many solid blue states, Obama wins some purple states and McCain wins solid red states.

Nobody gets the majority needed and the thing gets thrown to Congress.

The House picks by state delegations, which I think would favor the Democrats and probabl eliminates McCain.

I can't even begin to imagine how the fight between Clinton and Obama would resolve itself at that point.

Upon consideration, though, that might be the surest way to keep the White House out of Republican hands.

by KyleJRM 2008-03-15 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: my deepest fear

As an Obama supporter, I have too much respect of Hillary Clinton to think that she would ever do something like this. She will end this honorably, once she realizes that it is over. The same applies to Obama.

by marcotom 2008-03-15 04:53PM | 0 recs
Re: my deepest fear

I've thought about that too

by Lefty Coaster 2008-03-15 04:58PM | 0 recs
I Doubt It

Even if Hillary Clinton is 100% selfish — a trait I'm not yet willing to ascribe to her, but let's play along for this hypothetical — a cold, hard political calculation would determine that she would not win an independent run, and she would lose all possibility of a future Democratic Party nomination. In other words, she would reduce a non-zero probability of her becoming president in the future to actual zero.

I don't think Clinton is stupid or entirely selfish.

By the way, I don't think Hillary Clinton is anywhere near "too old" to run in 2016. She'd be 68. McCain is a full cycle older now, and he's already the Republican nominee.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: I Doubt It

"By the way, I don't think Hillary Clinton is anywhere near "too old" to run in 2016. She'd be 68. McCain is a full cycle older now, and he's already the Republican nominee."

by BBCWatcher on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 09:08:56 PM EST

If your statement were true? Al Gore would have run again in 2004. Especially after the 2000 post election recounts in 2001.

Respectfully disagree. Not because she would be too old but because it wouldn't be offered to her.

I suspect it's this run or nothing.

If anything, Sen. Obama would be better placed to run in 2012 or 2016 in regards to age. Would have been better for Sen. Clinton to run President this cycle with Sen. Obama as vice pres and then run Sen Obama in 2016. That would have meant a unified ticket/ party in 2008 and a seasoned veteran in the White House Sen. Obama in the 2016 election. No infighting and no arguments about inexperience.

That is my honest evaluation of the situation for what it's worth.

by 12 dogs and a blog 2008-03-15 10:50PM | 0 recs
Re: I Doubt It

sorry ya'll

that should have read

"...Especially after the 2000 post election recounts in 2000."

not

"Especially after the 2000 post election recounts in 2001."

I know you knew what I was talking about but....

by 12 dogs and a blog 2008-03-15 10:54PM | 0 recs
It's Nobody's "Turn"

Al Gore is slightly younger than Hillary Clinton. The reason he didn't run in 2004 had nothing to do with age.

With respect to 2016, when Hillary Clinton will be 68, she would have to earn the nomination as in any other year. There would be other candidates running, and the world would be a lot different. But no one "offers" the nomination to any of them. It's not a gift bestowed from on high, by party elders or a committee. She'd have to go out, run a better campaign, and win lots of votes. But I have no doubt that she'd be a potent candidate again in 2016, and her age would not be an issue. John McCain settled that.

Senator Obama had other plans this cycle than the ones you described, and voters have endorsed those plans. That's just how it goes sometimes. A lot of people thought it was the "wrong time" for Bill Clinton when he ran. Same with Jimmy Carter and JFK.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-16 12:06AM | 0 recs
I give Clinton a lot more credit than that

Lieberman was looking at losing everything if he didn't bolt.

Clinton would lose everything if she did bolt.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-15 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Guess those people in Iowa were too busy to watch the news last night...or is it now OK to associate and have as a friend who says God d*mn America.

by ericrsiny 2008-03-15 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Because every thread has to be about the FactHub attack point of the day.

Face it, the reaction to Rev. Wright is a collective shrug.  It isn't changing anyone's mind about anything.

by APoxOnBoth 2008-03-15 04:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

"A collective shrug."  Man oh man...

by Steve M 2008-03-15 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

"A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Fact is, Hillary's Opposition Research people shot their bolt too soon, they needed to wait another 5 weeks and pop it out right before the PA primary, like that "NAFTAgate" nonsense (you know, the one that turned out to be completely untrue?).  I guess they needed to stem the bleeding and change the narrative when Ferraro's dogwhistle started to backfire.

by APoxOnBoth 2008-03-15 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

I suggest you take your silly conspiracy stuff back to the orange place, where they will undoubtedly give you a ticker-tape parade.

by Steve M 2008-03-15 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

So that video appeared spontaneously from nowhere?  Or are you saying Hillary doesn't have Opposition Research people?  Or that "NAFTAgate" wasn't the capstone to their "Kitchen Sink" strategy?

by APoxOnBoth 2008-03-15 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Priceless.

by Steve M 2008-03-15 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

This is a stupid conspiracy theory. What is much more probably, is that the Obama campaign released this at this point in time. It's the perfect time for it. 6 weeks to the next primaries, months to the GE. It's the time to make public all the possible attack points the Repubs could use in November. The fact that they get publicity now means that they won't hurt him too much in the GE.

If the damage can be controlled now, and it is an if still, it won't count anymore in the GE. As simple as that.

by marcotom 2008-03-15 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

So Obama really wanted people to stop talking about Ferraro?  And Steve M is calling my version a "thin conspiracy theory"?

by APoxOnBoth 2008-03-15 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

You are both pretty nuts.  ABC News reported that they bought the videos themselves from the church website.  Fox News has been on this "story" for like a year.  Not every drop of rain that falls is Hillary's doing.

by Steve M 2008-03-15 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

It's just quite an interesting point in time for this to come up. Basically the perfect time for the Obama campaign. I don't know enough about this though, could be that the videos had been for sale for a long time or that they had been available for the public only since shortly. Certainly, Clinton is not behind this. Her campaign would have chosen a better time than this.

by marcotom 2008-03-16 02:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Someone tipped off ABC to those tapes.  

by Destiny 2008-03-16 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Not any less OK than having a friend who plays the race card every chance she gets (i.e., Geraldine Ferraro).

by Globe199 2008-03-15 04:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Since when do freeper talking points work with Democrats?

by marcotom 2008-03-15 04:55PM | 0 recs
None of Your Friends Ever Talked Stupid?

Eric, it's going to be a long(er), tedious, silly campaign if we're going to trade barbs about stupid things your friends say.

Obama used every word in the Thesaurus to say he denounces (rejects, disassociates, ...) Reverend Wright's remarks. I accept that, and it's time to move on. Most of America has. Of course, that previously gullable 13% of America just learned that Obama believes in Jesus Christ as his personal savior, so that's probably helpful.

I'm much more disturbed that John McCain hasn't criticized remarks two preachers made, two of his supporters, one of whom he describes as his spiritual adviser. They've said inflammatory things that are way beyond what Reverend Wright said. Yet McCain has not only failed to reject their viewpoints, he has apparently embraced them.

That's disturbing.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 05:01PM | 0 recs
Obama in Indiana

Funny you mention it because I just read an interesting piece on his visit to a mostly white suburb of Indianapolis today where he used Pastor Wright's own remarks as an example of the kind of rhetoric we need to get beyond. He condemned the increasingly toxic racial climate in general and held up Wright as an example of what to transcend. He's not running from Wright. But he's using the good of Wright - the inspiration, the Jesus, the faith, the hope - to expunge the bad of Wright - the anger, the bigotry, the paranoia, the cynicism about America. Obama has always been an expert at this sort of thing - taking what's good in somebody and expanding it and taking what's bad and rejecting it. If he continues in this vain, he may turn the Wright sermons into a net positive.

Here's an article about it:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23651086/

by elrod 2008-03-15 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama in Indiana

It's called "framing". Obama is the first Democrat in a long time who has the power to frame issues. For the last 8 years, Karl Rove and the Repubs did all the framing for us, that is going to change.

by marcotom 2008-03-16 02:38AM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

Clinton also lost one in NY with the Spitzer resignation.

by politicsmatters 2008-03-15 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

And won it back when Paterson endorsed Clinton.

by howiekent 2008-03-15 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

Nope.. he was already a Super Delegate before taking over the Governor's spot.

by leshrac55 2008-03-15 05:10PM | 0 recs
Paterson already endorsed months ago

as a member of the DNC.  he doesnt get a 2nd vote for being governor, and the Lt. Gov. position does not get replaced until the election in 2010.

by Ajax the Greater 2008-03-16 05:49AM | 0 recs
Iowa

News like this from Iowa makes it easier for the superdelegates to pull the trigger and put HRC out of her misery. The numbers are getting to the point where the superdelegates have to consider whether Hillary's slim chances of winning are worth putting the Party through the meat grinder for another three months.

I'm betting that the trickle of delegates going into the Obama column is gonna be a flood before the end of the month.

by global yokel 2008-03-15 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: What About Colorado?

Actually, I think those Colorado delegates had been "undesignated" up to now, though some counts had given them to Obama. The NY delegate was a genuine pick-up.

by elrod 2008-03-15 05:04PM | 0 recs
Pastor story is old news already

The big news, worth repeating, is that Iowa was not struck by the nasty Pastor story...if it was having an impact, wouldn't those Edwards delegates have given pause?

...dirty secret is that nobody pays much attention to preachers

by trubble 2008-03-15 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Pastor story is old news already

Step off this site and you'll see it's not making much of a difference either.  It's basically getting mixed in with the rest of the stupid surrogate statements stories like Powers, Ferraro and Hagee.

by Brillobreaks 2008-03-15 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

She'll gain most of those back in CO, where county assemblies are just wrapping up and she's doing much better than caucus night. We'll know for sure in a month.

by ColoradoGuy 2008-03-15 05:22PM | 0 recs
In a month it will be too late n/t

by trubble 2008-03-15 08:59PM | 0 recs
Iowa
I wonder if Hillary and the wise guys on her team have figured out that maybe it wasn't such a great idea to be dissing the states that caucus.
People don't like being told that their vote doesn't matter.
by global yokel 2008-03-15 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Ben Smith says 9 http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

by CardBoard 2008-03-15 06:49PM | 0 recs
Marc Ambinder Says +10 Net

Obama Picks Up a Net of 10 Delegates [from Iowa]

He points out that this extra haul alone is more than Clinton netted in Ohio.

Wow.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-15 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Marc Ambinder Says +10 Net

Updated, thanks.

by msn1 2008-03-15 07:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

Actually, if Florida & Michigan are included, the magic number jumps to 2208. The pool of undeclared superdelegates would be around 400. If Clinton can reach the end of the primaries with a deficit of about a 100, on the back of solid victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, she would still have a fighting chance. Unlikely, yes, impossible, no.

by hamilcar99 2008-03-15 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 6 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

377 undeclared supers to be exact, counting Michigan and Florida. Clinton currently leads Obama 15-5 in endorsements from FL and MI, but there has been very little movement in these numbers over the last month due to the uncertain status of the 2 states.

by msn1 2008-03-15 07:13PM | 0 recs
Actually more like 300 left

76 of the 377 are add-on delegates that will just go with whoever picks them, usually the winner of the state.  There are a few add-ons in FL&MI as well, so the total "free" superdelegates is actually under 300.

by svotaw1992 2008-03-15 08:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Actually more like 300 left

Well, Tennessee picked their 2 add-ons today, and in a state where Clinton won the primary, 1 is leaning but has not endorsed Clinton, and the other is clearly uncommitted. So some of these may be available for persuasion as well.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ tennessee-add-on-superdelegates-named.ht ml

by msn1 2008-03-15 09:27PM | 0 recs
Hillary whines about process in TX

Clinton trying to delay process in Texas-

http://www.dallasnews.com/...

I've got a feeling this isn't going to play very well with the folks down there....

by global yokel 2008-03-15 07:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary whines about process in TX

Your link didn't work

by Lefty Coaster 2008-03-15 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 10 delegates on Clinton in Iowa

It's time for Hillary to bow out.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-03-15 08:23PM | 0 recs
What ever happened in Nevada?

Will Obama be able to do the same thing in Nevada?  Will Clinton's trashing of the caucuses cost here there as well?  Did they redo the Clark County meeting yet?

by umcpgreg 2008-03-15 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains 10 delegates on

Wow, very impressive.  The "fragile" lead which endured for the entire process grows less fragile.

by cilerder86 2008-03-15 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains

Does it even matter that the friggin' voters have to say anymore?

This just furthers the point that going by pledged delegates is undemocratic. I think this just weakens the argument that the superdelegates must vote with the pledged delegates.

I really think the only rational way to look at who WON in the primaries and caucuses is to examine the popular vote. If that happens, and I think it will...

Say hello to Madame President.

by Scan 2008-03-15 09:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains

Madame President of which country?

by pitahole 2008-03-16 02:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama gains

Too bad that in the General election we won't have the luxury of this constant "let's keep changing the rules until we find a way that makes our candidate win" thingy.

What you may be forgetting is that in the General Elections there will also be an "undemocratic" system with electorate votes.

Would you rather have as candidate the person who'll win the most electorate votes in the General, or the candidate that might potentially win the popular vote (or then again she might perhaps not) and then argues that it's the popular vote that ought count?

by Aris Katsaris 2008-03-16 09:45AM | 0 recs
13 total for the day

Obama picked up 10 in Iowa and 3 net in California. I he think he's up over 170 in pledged delegates. Can Clinton bring it down 70 with big wins in PA, KY and WV? If she can't get it under 100, and she still doesn't have the popular vote, she has no case.

by elrod 2008-03-15 11:39PM | 0 recs
Re: 13 total for the day

Even if she does, his margins in OR, MT, SD, NC and IN will more then make up for them.

by Socks The Cat 2008-03-16 05:22AM | 0 recs

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