Despite Resistance, FL & MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

In the past couple of days, both the Florida Democratic House delegation and Obama's Michigan campaign co-chair have come out pretty forcefully against re-votes of any kind in their respective states. Despite this, the process appears to be moving forward.

In Florida:

Florida's Democratic Party chair urged Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, the national party and her own state's congressional delegation to consider a combined vote-by-mail/in-person plan as a redo of the Jan. 29 presidential primary.

The idea would be to mail ballots to all registered Democratic voters and set up 50 regional voting offices to help "disadvantaged communities" participate in an election ending June 3, state party Chairman Karen Thurman said in a memo to the campaigns and state and national party leaders. [...]

Thurman asked party leaders to review the draft and send feedback by Friday. On Monday, if there is consensus that the party should go forward with the plan, it would begin raising the estimated $10 million to $12 million to pay for the do-over while also gathering public comment.

Ben Smith has more details of the plan HERE.

And in Michigan:

As negotiators continued to work Wednesday on developing an acceptable plan for a possible do-over Democratic presidential primary in Michigan, the prospect of a state-run -- but party-funded -- primary was raised as a potential alternative to an election conducted through the mail.

The prospect of a state-run primary had been initially shelved because of the cost and Gov. Jennifer Granholm's insistence that the taxpayers not be stuck with a bill that could exceed $10 million.

But with Democratic leaders including Govs. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Jon Corzine of New Jersey promising to raise money, there could be a mechanism for a state-run primary paid for at party expense. It would require the Legislature's approval.

The possibility of a mail-in contest remains on the table as well.

Would the campaigns be amenable to these approaches? Certainly Hillary Clinton, who up until recently has been fairly rigid in support of seating the delegates as is, seems to be amending her rhetoric a bit.

Clinton said Wednesday that voters who took part in the Michigan and Florida primaries "are in danger of being excluded from our democratic process."

"In my view, there are two options: Honor the results or hold new primary elections," she said.

As for the Obama campaign, they expressed serious concerns about a mail-in primary this week and his Michigan co-chair, State Senator Tupac Hunter said:

"We think it would be fair to split the delegates 50-50," he said.

Hunter also said the two other possibilities -- a so-called "firehouse" caucus, and a full re-run of the primary -- are "not feasible," largely because of questions over how they'd be paid for, and how fast they could be assembled.

But Obama spokesman Bill Burton was quick to express that Hunter's comments did not reflect the official campaign position.

"Anything other than the fact that we think that the DNC and states ought to work this out, but we'll play by the rules, is not an expression of the position of the campaign," said spokesman Bill Burton.

Seems to me that the Obama campaign has decided that it's politically untenable to obstruct re-votes if that's the solution that both state parties come up with to allow their voters representation at the convention, although their concerns about a mail-in vote are real and not entirely without merit.

According to DNC rules, these contests would have to be done prior to June 10th.

Update [2008-3-13 10:48:25 by Todd Beeton]:Diarist thezzyzx sees a glitch in the proposed Florida plan.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Florida primary, Michigan primary (all tags)

Comments

81 Comments

Re: Despite Resistance,

The biggest hurdle to all of this, of course, is compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

How many people actually think Mukasey would do anything other than wait 59 days under tha act, and then reject the plans? He's proven he will comply with any partisan wishes of his lords and masters.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-13 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Yeah, let's have the Bush Justice Department decide our nomination!

by MediaFreeze 2008-03-13 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Is Florida under the DOJ compliance requirements?

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

The state as a whole isn't, but there are a few counties within Florida that are.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 07:15AM | 0 recs
Ditto Michigan

I don't think the DoJ WOULD sit on this, it'd be bad press for them to be seen as obstructing a primary.

by Rorgg 2008-03-13 09:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Ditto Michigan

Oh, right, b/c the Bush DoJ really gives a damn about bad press.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on!

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-13 09:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Ditto Michigan

Ah yes, we've all seen how the DOJ just hates bad press.

I fell off my chair laughing when I read that.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-03-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Why would he?

If he wants to shoot the dems in the foot, you give permission and give it quickly. Our repub governor has been nothing but supportive even initially offering state oversight. Why? Because the repubs can say this entire mess is the dems fault and if they can't even handle an election should they really be running the country?

In addition, a revote will give different results than the original. Which will have more people complaining about the results. Obama gets more votes than first election and people will scream. Clinton gets more votes than first election and people will scream. Tick off people to discourage voter turnout in the general. Why wouldn't the repubs do everything in their power to make that happen?

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 07:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

I don't see how the AG can give quick compliance.  I've read the provision dozens of times and it clearly says that the 60 day window has to pass.  It's not that s/he has 60 days to say yay or nay; it's that there's a 60 day window to complain that has to be waited out.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 07:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Does it have to pass before anything can be done? Or can it just make it invalid at some point in the process?

The actual election date is June 3rd so obviously they'll be 60 days in there. But not 60 days of nothing else happening obviously.

I have a hard time thinking that something obvious is going to be the stumbling block to this - like DOJ preclearance or voter roll access. I think if it doesn't happen it'll be something smaller that could have been overlooked. But I guess one should never underestimate incompetence. We'll have to wait and see.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 09:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

The real deadline isn't 60 days.

Ballots have to go out the Friday after the plan is finalized.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Which is why I said


But not 60 days of nothing else happening obviously.

And why I asked


Does it have to pass before anything can be done? Or can it just make it invalid at some point in the process?

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 09:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

That I don't know, and I don't know who does, although the term, "preclearance" implies that you have to get it first.

Things were so much easier for politicians when they didn't have 10,000,000 people bored at work and surfing the Internet for primary documents :)

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 09:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

And this army of 10,000,000 bored internet surfers shall strike down the evil politicians. :D

Well surfing around, I see that states like S.D. and Louisiana don't like to ask for preclearance even if it is required. They roll the dice and take their chances. Seems as if sometimes it slides and sometimes not. Which may mean they can proceed while awaiting preclearance it just won't be legally binding until preclearance. And actually may still be ruled against even after receiving preclearance.

Still I wonder why no preclearance talk arose when the DNC removed all the delegates. That is certainly something that would apply as much as this mail vote.

I've seen nothing that convinces me this will stop the mail in vote. Of course that doesn't mean it won't, just that we don't really know yet.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

"Still I wonder why no preclearance talk arose when the DNC removed all the delegates"

As I understand it, the party can do whatever the heck it wants about allocating delegates - it can make Ohio worth 10,000 and Wyoming 3 if they wanted to - because that's an internal affair, but once that decision is made, the actual mechanism of voting is subject to voting laws.  Confusing, ain't it? :)

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Ah but I found this:

Link


The Party is thus delegated the power to determine part of the field of candidates from which the voters must choose. Correspondingly, when Virginia incorporates the Party's selection, it "endorses, adopts and enforces" the delegate qualifications set by the Party for the right to choose that nominee. Smith v. Allwright, 321 U.S. 649, 664 (1944). The major parties have no inherent right to decide who may appear on the ballot. That is a privilege conferred by Virginia law, not natural law. If the Party chooses to avail itself of this delegated power over the electoral process, it necessarily becomes subject to the regulation.

I'm still reading (head spinning) but it appears that because a candidate from a political party is allowed on the general ballot from a different set of rules than a third party candidate, actions during the primary, which I would think include DNC actions, would be subjects to preclearance.

But I'm confused enough not to be sure of anything.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Why would anyone submit a plan to the DOJ?  Presidential primaries are not subject to DOJ review unless they are run as a state election.

Allowing the Florida Sec'y Of State within a million miles of the mail-in primary would be a terrible blunder.  The incompetence of that office is proven.  Many private sector businesses could do far better and some of them are likely located in Florida.  Probably cheaper, too.

Just buy the registered voter list (the DNC already has copies) and run the election privately.  Any other plan is madness.

by Brian Watkins 2008-03-13 07:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

The memo seems to think that Rule 5 compliance is needed.  It specifically mentions having to attain it.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

No, it is not required.

The federal government has no say in how party primaries were run. They can govern general elections.

by KimPossible 2008-03-13 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

You're wrong about this.

From a letter sent to Marc Ambinder:

   I am a former Senior Attorney (career, not a political appointee) with DOJ's Voting Section. I am now in private practice. I am unaffiliated with any political campaign.

   In response to the issue about whether DOJ must "preclear" Michigan and
    Florida's proposed do-over primary or caucus, the answer is yes. There is no
    question about this.

   Portions of Florida and Michigan are "covered" by Section 5 of the Voting
    Rights Act. This coverage means that "changes affecting voting" in these
    covered parts of the two states must be precleared or approved by DOJ or the
    federal trial court in Washington, D.C. before they take effect. Failure to
    preclear these changes makes them illegal under federal law.

   By way of background, in 2004, when the Michigan Democratic Party proposed
    Internet voting for its presidential primary, this was a "change affecting
    voting" and had to be precleared. No political party in Michigan had
    previously conducted an election over the Internet so the proposed 2004
    Internet voting was a voting change.

   I was the DOJ attorney who discussed this issue with the Michigan Democratic
    Party, reviewed the party's submission to DOJ, and recommended preclearance.
    DOJ approved the change and the state party's Internet voting in the 2004
    primary election proceeded.

   The do-over elections being discussed for Michigan and Florida would
    similarly be "changes affecting voting" since they would be new elections
    held on previously unscheduled election dates. Under Section 5 of the Voting
    Rights Act, these changes must be precleared by DOJ or the federal trial
    court in Washington, D.C.

   By law, DOJ has 60 days to approve, reject or request more information about
    any changes affecting voting after DOJ receives a request to preclear the
    change. You are correct that the federal court in DC would take much longer.

Things don't look good for a mail-in vote in FL.  It is doubtful that it would happen in time for the June deadline.

Just take a 50-50 split and be done with it.  Hell, let's give Clinton a  55-45 split in BOTH states so that her supporters won't complain as much.  It won't matter to Obama in the end.

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-13 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Really, a DOJ attorney decided that a completely unlike case needed preclearance?  Without any federal case law to back it up?

That's really definitive.  

A party-run primary organized by a private company would provide no nexus for any federal government action to block it.  

Private organizations like the MI Dem Party organize vote-by-mail internal elections every year for their officers without ever consulting DOJ because they are not state run contests or elections for public office.  Literally thousands of these elections take place every year in MI and FL.  Mountains of case law support the practice.

by Brian Watkins 2008-03-13 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

I'm not arguing that it will or won't be approved but upthread I linked to a court decision which I think may show that the DOJ and section 5 would apply. I can't be sure as it is all very lawyerly and I'm not lawyerly at all. :D

But basically, because the party is treated under different rules by the state for appearing on the general ballot than third party candidates, the process in selecting the nominee falls under section 5 (as long as it applies to the region). So because the state grants them special rights they must abide by the same rules as the state.

I think.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Looks not to matter anyways.

Fla. presidential primary re-do unlikely

Fla. Vote-By Mail Primary Re-Do Unlikely Because of Concerns

BRENDAN FARRINGTON
AP News

Mar 13, 2008 12:49 EST

The chairwoman of Florida's Democratic Party has said the proposed presidential primary do-over is unlikely to go forward because of concerns about the combined mail-in/in-person election.

Still, Karen Thurman said Thursday she is asking Democratic leaders, the national party and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to consider the option as the best way to resolve a delegate dispute. The disagreement was created when the state violated party rules by holding an early primary.

Thurman will review comments from Democratic leaders and make a decision by Monday on whether to proceed with the do-over. But she said based on what she's already heard, it's unlikely to happen.

Per TPM

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-13 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

I am actually against a revote but once it was out there I think it really needed to happen for the benefit of whoever the nominee ends up being as well as for the Dem party reputation. Now voters are more riled up (heck most of them had no idea before this last round of press) and the price for all this mess will be higher.

There are already 2 polls showing a backlash among Florida Dem voters. And the Repubs have barely begun to use this issue.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Pardon me, but where exactly did you get your JD. ?

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-03-13 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Well,  the plan is flawed.  That's no surprise.  Do you suppose it's a poison pill in the plan or just the result of ignorance of MI corporation law?

by Brian Watkins 2008-03-13 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance, FL & MI Do-Over
Walt:
That is one problem.  When all is said and done, I think Obama would want a Michigan re-vote.  He can only improve there.  All you are hearing now is posturing.
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-03-13 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance, FL

The take away message should be that the Obama campaign is in favor of a re-vote if it can be done effectively. Not sure why you would emphasize statements at a lower rung in the campaign.

by dmc2 2008-03-13 06:56AM | 0 recs
Wow a front page shout out!

Cool :)

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Forget the phrase "We're play by the rules." The bottom line is you "Let Every Vote Count."

by Check077 2008-03-13 07:07AM | 0 recs
We shall see....

Seems to me that the Obama campaign has decided that it's politically untenable to obstruct re-votes if that's the solution that both state parties come up with to allow their voters representation at the convention,

We shall see. I hope so. But watch for the objections to emerge. This has been the MO so far. At first to say it "looks reasonable" and then to find some "serious problems."

As I said, we shall see....

by MediaFreeze 2008-03-13 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

Oh, brother.  Both sides are posturing right now (just like Clinton keeps insisting that the votes should stand as is, which is a non-starter).  Expect something to be hammered out soon.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

We'll see...

by MediaFreeze 2008-03-13 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

Clinton should stop stonewalling. The delegates will not be seated as is. I guess this is a good indication of how she'd manage her presidency. Four more years of Bush bunker mentality...

by carbocation 2008-03-13 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

This is something I don't thinks many have picked up on. Clinton his run her campaign like bush has run the Iraq war.

They both started with wild expectations about being greeted with flowers (or in her case, expecting more of a coronation than a fight)
What she found was the equivalent of an insurgency (Obama's people working on the ground, in the neighborhoods, face to face, one state at a time. Bulding the networks that would get people to caucuses, etc. She totally ignored all of this, at least in the beginning: just like Bush did in Iraq.)
She countered with big guns, totally neglecting the little people both in terms of how she was presenting her message and campaigning but also in terms of fundraising (she only recently came to raising money online when Obama has been doing this all along. This is just as it was several years before bush realized that his strategy in Iraq was a failure and that what he needed was to win the harts and minds of individuals. there are so many parallels there. A quick example was going from the "I" to the "we" as Obama had been doing all along)

Bottom line, for me, Hillary has run her campaign like Bush ran the Iraq war. I think, like Bush, she could win given enough time. Luckily for Bush, time was on his side and he could make as many mistakes in the beginning and still have time to correct most of them. Imagine if the Irique war had a time limit that ended several years ago?

Unfortunately for Hillary, it looks like her changes are a little too late.

by poserM 2008-03-13 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

what are you talking about? Bush's war in Iraq has improved little. Worse now then if it had ended two years ago actually.

and like most good progressives know, success isn't judged by decreasing U.S. fatalities. unless you ignore how ethnic groups will get along, how the rights of women will stand up over time and how those who lost loved ones (American and Iraqi) cope as time passes by.

by alex100 2008-03-13 08:44AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

There are a number of measures by which the Iraq war has improved. One is US fatalities. But Iraqi fatalities have also decreased. Fewer people are being run out of their neighborhoods and fewer provinces are "no go" zones. I call that an improvement. As much as I don't like Bush or his war, I have to say that things have improved when in fact they have. Even if the improvement is not as significant as we all would like.

by poserM 2008-03-13 09:35AM | 0 recs
ahem...

well, that's one way of looking at it.

we can ignore the Iraqi brain drain, the problems facing ethnic minorities, a weak federal government that can't seem to get much done, the prospect that women may lose their rights as time progresses, tribal warfare, increasing amounts of Iraqi refugees (over 2mil), a depleted U.S. treasury, tens of thousands of Americans injured for life, a world that isn't safer by any means and much more.

and "only" 12 more U.S. fatalities in Iraq in the past 3 days. not exactly "progress" for a mission that shouldn't even be measured in terms of "improvement".

by alex100 2008-03-13 10:13AM | 0 recs
Re: ahem...

He didn't say that things were perfect. He said they had improved. They have.

Have they improved enough? No.

Is there any level of improvement that would make the war acceptable? No.

But those aren't the questions we are dealing with here. We are simply asking, "has it improved?" and the answer is yes.

by JDF 2008-03-13 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: ahem...

even roller coasters have moments of incline...

by alex100 2008-03-13 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

and as a Edwards supporter who now supports Obama, your analogy really sucks.

Hillary's campaign has been a disaster on so many levels but let's not compare it to "Bush's" war that she helped authorize or Bush himself.

by alex100 2008-03-13 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: We shall see....

My point is that you can draw analogies between how Bush planned, managed and has so far run the war in Iraq with Hillary's campaign.

1. Like Bush, Hillary went into the campaign without a "real" plan

  1. Like Bush, when she found herself faced by a formidable enemy her response was to deny
  2. Like Bush it was only when it became clear to ALL that she was TOAST that she responded  (key here is: deny there is a problem until denying there is a problem just simply is no longer tenable then give in to the problem and try to do something about it)
  3. Like bush, she has regrouped, redrawn her plans. She has given up on the denial and now tries to cast herself as the underdog. She now recognizes that Obama is a formidable opponent who she has to counter. She is not acting accordingly and has been doing better lately.

To me, this is what Obama is talking about when he discusses Judgment over Experience. All the experience will get you nowhere if you exercise good judgment. Had Hillary exercised good judgment through 2007 and early 2008, she'd be in a much better position then she is now.

by poserM 2008-03-13 09:45AM | 0 recs
nonono

it's a bad analogy.

analogies in themselves aren't hard to devise, it's making strong connections that is.

1.
hillary did go into this thing with a real plan. it was over-confidence and her belief that she would sweep super Tuesday and knock out obama.

2.
obama does not equal iraq. in fact, iraq has nothing to do with being an enemy in the first place.

3.
hillary has been responding since day one. at first it was their belief that caucuses don't count. Then we learned from them that southern states, primary states, red states, small to mid-sized blue states, u.s. territories, districs (D.C.), black states, young states, states that don't reach a 70% female threshhold, states that sometimes aren't on the continental u.s. map, overseas people and places that have grocery stores don't matter.

in any regard, I still don't understand the point that Bush only responded when he was "toast".

4.
eh. weak weak weak! she still doesn't think that Obama is a formidable opponent. She's willing to give the primary leader the V.P. slot but Wolfson is in the background parlaying his belief that Obama isn't even ready for that.

hang it up. It's a horrible analogy.

by alex100 2008-03-13 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: nonono

I can't believe we are arguing so vehemently over the analogy when the points within it are valid.

Is this really what we have come to, being willing to?

Is it a perfect analogy, of course not. But there are valid points he makes and comparisons he draws. You may disagree with them, but that doesn't make it a horrible analogy.

by JDF 2008-03-13 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: nonono

i think if you stick to facts the point comes across better.

The war in Iraq has nothing to do with this campaign. Unless you believe that Clinton's horrible campaign is an apt analogy for her authorization for war. And Bush's lies to go to war.

by alex100 2008-03-13 11:32AM | 0 recs
FL & MI

"We think it would be fair to split the delegates 50-50," he said.

huh? that is worse than not seating the delegation at all, it is appropriating the delegation without any reference to Florida voters.

It should be kept in mind that this is about the voters of MI and FL, not Clinton and Obama.

Obama's whole attitude seems to be run out the clock and disenfranchise the voters.

by Alice Marshall 2008-03-13 07:42AM | 0 recs
The clock has already run out

There was a time to come up with a plan, but in one of her biggest blunders of the campaign (second only to ignoring the caucus states and letting Obama run up huge delegate gains) Clinton spent 6 weeks trying to get the MI/FL delegations seated as is.

If she had started from the beginning calling for a revote, it would have happened.  The problem is that she pursued a high risk, high reward strategy and it backfired.  It's appears to be too late now to have an revote and have it comply with DNC rules and election laws.  This could have been avoided.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: The clock has already run out

You are missing the point. This isn't about Clinton or Obama, this is about giving the Democratic voters of Florida and Michigan a chance to be heard.

by Alice Marshall 2008-03-13 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: The clock has already run out

It's not about giving them a chance to be heard; it's about giving them a chance to be heard in a manner consistent with Democratic Party rules and United States election laws.  That needs time, which we don't have very much of right now.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: FL & MI

Clinton's senior advisor is Harold Ickes.  Ickes was on the committee that deprived MI and FL of all of their delegates.  Clinton did not make a peep about disenfranchisement until about a week before those primaries happened, nor did she work to overturn that ruling when she had months to do so.  Clinton, to my knowledge, has never criticized Ickes for his actions, and Ickes presumably receives significant compensation for his services.  Let's call a spade a spade here.  Clinton's posturing has far more to do with the manipulation of voters' perceptions than actual enfranchisement.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 08:00AM | 0 recs
Tehre are two other problems, Todd

#1 It's illegal for the State of Florida to run a mail-in election.

#2 If you attempt to overcome #1 by using a third party contractor, it's illegal for the state of Florida to sell its voting rolls to a third party.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-13 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Tehre are two other problems, Todd

Do you have a good link to those laws?  I have links to people saying that, but nothing that I felt 100% confident in adding to my diary.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 07:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Tehre are two other problems, Todd

I'm not going to do all your work for you, but the relevant points are all made in chapters 101 and 103 of Title IX of Florida statutes.

http://www.flsenate.gov/Statutes/index.c fm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=Ch01 01/titl0101.htm&StatuteYear=2007& ;Title=%2D%3E2007%2D%3EChapter%20101

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-03-13 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Tehre are two other problems, Todd

Thanks.  101.6102 looks hard to overcome.  

by thezzyzx 2008-03-13 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Tehre are two other problems, Todd

Yes, and what people fail to realize is that even if the party, the state, the DOJ and all parties involved reach a tacit agreement,  all it takes is one fool (Republican) filing a lawsuit and it's all over.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-03-13 12:10PM | 0 recs
There is no easy/quick fix
Splitting the delegates 50/50 really doesn't make sense and there's obviously no way Clinton would go for that.  Her chance of winning at this point is to win substantially in Florida and beat Obama in Michigan as well.  Therefore, the only two options the Clinton camp won't fight tooth and nail is a re-vote or counting the delegates as is.  Personally I think stripping the super delegates and cutting the pledged in half makes the most sense, but the Clinton camp will cry foul about voter disenfranchisement because they have the majority of supers in both states and want all these much delegates on the table.  This is probably going to only get uglier and worse as time goes on.  The best case scenario for the Democratic party in my opinion (as a bias Obama supporter) is for Obama to knock Clinton out in mid May by winning those states overwhelmingly and agree to seat the delegates as is.  I guess beating Clinton in PA is also possible because the primary is still so far away and anything can happen, but I find it highly unlikely.
The annoying thing about this to me is that the Michigan and Florida legislatures and governors are 100% at fault for this and deserve to be punished, but the voters in Michigan and Florida obviously had nothing to do with this whole scheme.  I really hope  the democrats in Michigan in particular are happy knowing they're hurting whoever the Democratic nominee is.  Obviously the republicans had complete control in Florida, so they're obviously smiling at their accomplishment, but seriously Gov. Granholm and Sen. Levin have no excuse for pushing ahead of Feb. 5.  Maybe the rules aren't fair and maybe they need to be changed, but breaking them knowing that you're going to seriously screw things up is not the way to handle things.  It's pretty hard to argue Howard Dean and the DNC are disenfranchising your constituents when you were the idiots that caused the whole mess.
by blueryan 2008-03-13 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

Cutting them in half would be about as fair a solution as any, I guess, since that punishment is spelled out in the rules and the states moved their primaries up with knowledge of those rules.  If there is not some punishment mechanism, there will be absolutely no control over the primary schedule in 2012 and the DNC will be rendered completely powerless.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Cut all of Obama's Caucus votes in half...

Those caucus votes disenfranchised many voters as well. No, we will not cut those delegates votes in half. I would be appalled if I voted for Hillary and found out the BAR-ACK Obama got my votes.

by Check077 2008-03-13 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Cut all of Obama's Caucus votes in half...

Huh?  Cutting them in half wouldn't give unfair votes to either, it would just cut the number in half as punishment for breaking the rules, which the states knew full well would happen (because the rules specifically provide for that punishment).

I guess you don't mind the prospect of New Hampshire moving its 2012 primary into the week of Christmas 2011 in order to protect its "first in the nation" status, then.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 09:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Cut all of Obama's Caucus votes in half...

I think you're misreading my post - I'm not saying a 50-50 divide, I'm saying that the total number of delegates should be cut in half, then the remainder would be allocated based on Clinton's percentage and the "uncommitted" percentage.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 09:24AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

I'm not disagreeing with you but there is a down side to reducing the pledged delegates by 50% at this point - It makes the dem party look like idiots.

That was the punishment listed in the rules originally and the punishment that the RNC gave Florida. To go through all of this and then end up where the RNC went right away makes the Dems look foolish at best.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

Really, is there a way to make them not look like idiots at this point?

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

How would cutting them in half be fair to the Democratic voters in FL and MI. They are the ones who matter, not Clinton or Obama.

by Alice Marshall 2008-03-13 09:57AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

How would it not be fair?  It's neutral to the voters.  The voters have no control over how many delegates the DNC allocates to a particular state, and in fact the DNC has tinkered with those numbers to encourage participation in certain states.  Whether a state has 10 delegates or 100, what's fair is that those delegates be allocated consistently with the popular vote.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

blueryan, I'll give it to you. That was a fair assessment of the situation. Supporting a revote is the fairest decision of all. Even though you're  an Obama supporter, I will have to give credit when and where it's due.

by Check077 2008-03-13 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: There is no easy/quick fix

Man, I can hear Debbie Wasserman Shultz screaming already.

I'll support anything that keeps her worthless attitude out of the convention.  Maybe if she stays in Florida, she might actually start to believe that it is her responsibility to support the Dems running in 18, 21, 25.  She is way too comfortable with her Republican neighbors for my taste.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-03-13 09:22AM | 0 recs
Rules, Smools
According to DNC rules, these contests would have to be done prior to June 10th.

Rule, smools ... why would anyone care about rules. Can't you just imagine the refrain: "Are you going to disinfranchise all those important voters in the two big, significant states of Florida and Michigan, just because they don't abide by some scheduling requirement of the DNC?"

The schedule rules didn't matter then, so why should they matter now? (snark)
by xtrarich 2008-03-13 07:54AM | 0 recs
Who'll be on the ballot?

Will Gravel's supporters be disenfranchised?

He'd qualified under the original Florida rules.

by benmasel 2008-03-13 08:27AM | 0 recs
Let's get this over with.

I am so tired of this fuss about FL and MI.  Re-vote and get it over with.  

It is not going to change the outcome of the primaries anyway.  If anything Obama will gain delegates compared to the calculations most are making.  Obama may actually win MI and get closer than recent estimates in FL that people were using in their forecasts.

This issue is the main obstruction in resolving the Democratic nominee.  It is both an excuse for Clinton to continue and a story to drag on and on about process.  This is beyond long in the tooth and needs to be settled once and for all.

by RSchewe 2008-03-13 08:49AM | 0 recs
MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

http://www.columbiacountybounty.com:80/

A great post by Josh Marshall on the Clinton campaign and her attempt to inject race into the conversation.

by global yokel 2008-03-13 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

Um, is that some sort of organic farmers' website?  Is that the right link?

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance,

Josh Marshall? Too bad most of Hillary supporters, except the rock-solid supporters does not read that staunchly left propaganda. I love Hillary style of politics--reminds me of what I read about LBJ. We need a fighter--someone that will beat back the filthy republicans.

by Check077 2008-03-13 09:08AM | 0 recs
MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

theyzzyzx wrote-

"If she had started from the beginning calling for a revote, it would have happened.  The problem is that she pursued a high risk, high reward strategy and it backfired.  It's appears to be too late now to have an revote and have it comply with DNC rules and election laws.  This could have been avoided."

Amen.  HRC lost the respect of a huge number of Democrats (including myself) when she made that sleazy attempt to snag those Michigan and Florida delegates.  Her statement that she was worried about the disenfranchisement of voters in those states is clearly a load of self-serving horseshit. Had she taken the high road and advocated for a re-vote that would give all the voters of MI and FL a fair shot at participating, she would have gained the respect of everyone.

by global yokel 2008-03-13 09:09AM | 0 recs
MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

"We need a fighter--someone that will beat back the filthy republicans."

Excuse me?  While Hillary was attending the posh and private Wellesley College in Massachusetts, Obama was organizing poor people in the tough neighborhoods of Chicago.  And you won't find any of those cushy, no-show corporate board seats at nasty companies like WalMart and LaFarge Cement on his resume.

by global yokel 2008-03-13 09:12AM | 0 recs
Michigan Seeing Red

(I made this comment at OpenLeft this morning and thought I would re-post it here.)

As a Michigander, Democratic precinct delegate, former Democratic candidate for county commissioner, a frequent poster at MichiganLiberal.com and Chair of Mid-Michigan DFA, perhaps I can shed some light on the state of the Michigan Democratic electorate.

It is viewed by all party activists that there must be a re-vote that determines the delegates sent to Denver.  The DNC has consistently said it would accept Florida and Michigan delegations that were selected according to a DNC-approved plan.  Thus as long as the DNC approves a new plan -- either a party-run "firehouse" primary, a party-run "mail" primary, or a party caucus -- those state delegations will be seated in Denver and allowed to vote, barring any obstruction from a campaign-controlled credentials committee.  

However, Obama surrogates -- State Senators Buzz Thomas and Tupac Hunter, Co-Chairs of the Obama for Michigan campaign -- announced yesterday that they are opposed to a mail-based re-vote and favor the 50-50 solution.  Since I have heard that Obama supporters will be controlling the credentials committee at the convention, that would leave the decision on whether to seat a re-vote-based delegation up in the air.

It is crucial to Michigan activists that our delegation be seated based on a vote, not a 50-50 plan.  While we are divided as to the form of the re-vote, we will consider it both undemocratic and un-Democratic if our delegation is either not based on preferences determined by a vote or if our delegation is not seated at all.  Many activists wouldn't care if we were stripped of our superdelegates (PLEOs), although our superdelegates naturally feel differently.  

Still, it is the opinion of a clear majority of the activists that failure to seat an election-based Michigan delegation in Denver will result in our 17 electoral votes going for McCain in November.  And that includes both Michigan Democrats in both the Obama and Clinton camps.

by Butch Snider 2008-03-13 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Michigan Seeing Red

Understandable, though as the diary itself notes, those surrogates do not speak for Obama on this issue.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Michigan Seeing Red

Which is why Obama or an official campaign spokesperson needs to clearly state Obama's position. I know that some may feel he already has, but if people aren't getting that message, it should be repeated and very, very, very clearly and simply stated.

by Step Beyond 2008-03-13 09:36AM | 0 recs
MI Do-Over Plans Move Forward

Hillary Clinton, October 2007:

"It's clear, this election they're having (MI) is not going to count for anything," Clinton said Thursday during an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio's call-in program."

by global yokel 2008-03-13 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance, FL & MI Do-Over

At this point we know that 1) Obama will end the contest with the most pledged delegates, 2) Obama will likely end the contest with the popular vote tally, 3) Obama will end the contest with the most money and greatest fundraising potential, 4) Obama will end the contest with the most states, 5) Obama will end the contest with the best poll numbers against McCain, and 6) Obama will end the contest with the most primary state victories and caucus state victories.

So what's left for Team Clinton?

by PrinceCA 2008-03-13 10:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance, FL

Looks like the revote plans are NOT moving forward after all.

Fla. presidential primary re-do unlikely

Fla. Vote-By Mail Primary Re-Do Unlikely Because of Concerns

BRENDAN FARRINGTON
AP News

Mar 13, 2008 12:49 EST

The chairwoman of Florida's Democratic Party has said the proposed presidential primary do-over is unlikely to go forward because of concerns about the combined mail-in/in-person election.

Still, Karen Thurman said Thursday she is asking Democratic leaders, the national party and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to consider the option as the best way to resolve a delegate dispute. The disagreement was created when the state violated party rules by holding an early primary.

Thurman will review comments from Democratic leaders and make a decision by Monday on whether to proceed with the do-over. But she said based on what she's already heard, it's unlikely to happen.

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-13 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Despite Resistance, FL

Maybe they should just focus on making sure that the general election is not as big a mess as this is.  Wow, Florida's elections are really screwed up.

by rfahey22 2008-03-13 12:41PM | 0 recs

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