Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

by Todd Beeton, Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 02:57:12 PM EDT

Some data from early Mississippi exit polls is starting to trickle in.

Blacks, who have supported Obama in overwhelming numbers in earlier primaries, accounted for roughly half the ballots cast in Mississippi, according to interviews with voters leaving polling places.
Nearly one in five Democratic primary voters called himself an independent. About one in 10 was Republican.

Depending on what "roughly half" means, this could be an indication that African-American turnout is lower than expected as all recent polling (this post at Pollster shows the demographic breakdowns of the latest ARG, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen Reports surveys out of Mississippi) assumed between 53%-55% African-American turnout.

In addition, it's interesting to note that the exit polling is showing Clinton supporters being far less charitable toward Senator Obama than Obama supporters are toward Senator Clinton. What this means for the potential results tonight is anyone's guess.

-- Six in 10 Obama voters said he should pick Clinton for vice president if he wins the nomination; four in 10 Clinton voters said she should pick Obama as her running mate if she wins.
-- Nearly three-fourths of Clinton voters said they would be dissatisfied if Obama wins the nomination. Little more than half of Obama voters would be dissatisfied with Clinton.
-- Nearly half of Obama voters said Clinton has offered clear and detailed plans to solve the country's problems. Only about one in five Clinton voters said that about Obama.

More as we get it...

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, mississippi primary (all tags)

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

when do the polls close?

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-11 03:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

thanks!

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-11 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

In election law right now -

The first half of class focused on Spitzer.

FYI - some comfort -- Bruno does not become the LG. He just assumes the responsibilities.

Basically - President of the senate, and temporarily becomes Guv if something happens to Patterson / he leaves the state.

But he will not become the new LG.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-11 03:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

That is good to know. Bruno with more power is not something I would look forward to.

by mady 2008-03-11 03:16PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

And arguably we could make sure Malcolm Smith is next in line come November if you follow what I am saying

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Not early enough...with the latest round of Ms. Ferraro blathering on, HRC needs to get out of Dodge as quickly as possible...

by Rockville Liberal 2008-03-11 03:02PM | 0 recs

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Who cares?

Mississippi doesn't matter, right Senator Clinton?

by chicagovigilante 2008-03-11 03:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Who cares?

In the general election, yes.

by Sieglinde 2008-03-11 03:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Who cares?

Absolutely. Because it's not as if there are any competitive senate or house races in Mississippi, right? Wrong.

by cilerder86 2008-03-11 03:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Who cares?

Actually, right. What races do you think are competitive?

by ColoradoGuy 2008-03-11 03:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Who cares?

Mississippi has a Senate race with a top tier Democratic challenger.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-03-11 03:12PM | 0 recs

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Lott's senate seat could be

by lombard 2008-03-11 03:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

After Geraldine Ferraro's comments on Friday and again today, I'm not surprised that exit polls suggest that Clinton's supporters are generally less charitable.

by Setrak 2008-03-11 03:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I am a Hillary supporter and Geraldine Ferraro is a has-been. She needs to shut her pipe.

The funny thing is that Hillary and Barack supporters should find common ground on one thing. Do we really need the likes of Geraldine Ferraro and Gary Hart chiming in on this election? Please, the 1980 re-treads need to go home.

by njsketch 2008-03-11 03:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

So why the heck is Ferraro still on the finance committee for Hillary's campaign? This is so ridiculous. Obama canned Samantha Power, a woman who deserves far more respect than Ferraro. He canned a member of his LGBT committee for sending out an inflammatory e-mail about the Clintons' past. Yet when it's Hillary's turn to crack the whip on her people, nothing is done? Just a statement of "we disagree with her?" If I were you, I'd be writing to the campaign and threatening to withhold any further donations until Ferraro is canned. She went on Fox News and said she's only being attacked because she's white! What kind of party are we becoming?

by Setrak 2008-03-11 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Bill Bradley had also some nasty stuff to say about the clintons in the News hour show in PBS.

by indus 2008-03-11 03:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Doesnt it mean that we should all have Hillary as the nominee because her supporters wont vote for Obama but his supporters will vote for Hillary?

Doesnt this fact proves that what Obama said was a lie or divisive or disrespectful to many?

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

You're right. Some of Hillary's supporters whine and say "if she can't have it, McCain will!" So we should totally give in to that type of childish behavior. It makes such stellar sense. Why act like grownups with a spine when we can take the easy road and give in?

by Setrak 2008-03-11 03:16PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

So when Obama said his supporters will not support Hillary, do you mean Obama meant you are childish or a grownup without a spine?

Do you see where I am coming from?

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

No, he was referring to bull like this that gets pulled. And you know what? He's right. She better smarten up or McCain will stride in like a maverick and go for the AA votes. The vast majority of AA voters in Michigan voted "uncommitted." That was months ago, before Ferraro. Don't underestimate the temptation of a protest-vote.

by Setrak 2008-03-11 03:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

You do know that you are being hypocrite in that above post. That is my biggest problem with Obama.

Now you think protest vote are not childish when it is against Hillary but when it is against Obama, it is childish, etc.

Obama was arrogant and a hypocrite when he made that statement. You should agree that he was, as a logical sensible person.

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 04:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

"Doesnt it mean that we should all have Hillary as the nominee because her supporters wont vote for Obama but his supporters will vote for Hillary?"

not this one...

by Rockville Liberal 2008-03-11 03:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

You are entitled to your opinion so I respect it. But my question is based on what Setrak said above.

When Obama said his supporters will not support Hillary, do you think Obama meant you are childish or a grownup without a spine?

Do you see where I am coming from?

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Obama's supporters are willing to support Hillary if she gets the nomination, and that supposedly makes Obama divisive?

Clinton's been attacking Obama non-stop with lies, with contempt, with racial implications. As such am not surprised that anyone still willing to vote for Clinton wouldn't like Obama very much.

On the other hand Obama's treating Clinton with much more respect than she deserves.

That doesn't mean we should reward those Clinton's tactics.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-03-11 03:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

With all due respect; does anybody remember this comment?

OBAMA: I think there is no doubt that [Hillary Clinton] has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates, that's just a fact. And there are some who will not vote for her. I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her. Now the question is, could she get the people who voted for me?
http://firedoglake.com/2008/01/23/late-n ite-fdl-obama-suggests-his-supporters-wo nt-vote-for-hillary/

It sounds like Sen. Obama is very confident that he can get the votes of Clinton supporters, but he suggests that she may not get his supporters votes. That very quote made me back down from my statment that I would actively volunteer for him in the GE if he was our nom.

by DemMom 2008-03-11 03:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Also, he pulls a significant number of independents and, to a lesser extent, republicans. They are people who will in all likelihood not vote for Senator Clinton if she is the nominee.

Further, he made that comment after the Clinton campaign went negative in SC. They were running a meaner campaign at the time. If you have an instance where he's said that in the past month and a half, rather than in early January, its a different story.

Finally, last night on this blog we were discussing the fact that Mississippi is the most racially divided state in the country. African Americans will make up a huge portion of Obama's voters in the primary today. Those people always vote Democratic. They'll vote for Sen. Clinton. Is anyone surprised that white people in the most racially divided state in the country are saying they won't vote for a black candidate.

Nationally, 20% of Clinton supporters say they won't vote for Obama. 27% of Obama supporters say they won't vote for Clinton. Both of those numbers will go down when the person the nominee is running against is John McCain and not another Democrat.

(*I don't remember where I got those numbers, I think on this blog, but I have seen them somewhere, I promise I'm not pulling them out of my ass)

by LiberalFL 2008-03-11 03:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

LiberalFL said:

"Further, he made that comment after the Clinton campaign went negative in SC. They were running a meaner campaign at the time. If you have an instance where he's said that in the past month and a half, rather than in early January, its a different story."

I trust you on your numbers ;0) They sound about right to me.
The one thing I would pose as a response to you is to ask how you, as an Obam supporter, would react if a Clinton supporter would make the case that since Obama is going more negative now, it is OK for Hillary to go all out negative. If his campaign is about taking the high road and turning politics around, how can this be a rational excuse for his remark.

I may be all wrong here, but if he sadi it today or tomorrow, it would have no different impact on me. I have a pretty good memory and basically it told me that he took my vote for granted...never a good thing to do to this little southern gal. ;0)
I am just one, maybe I ma alone on this one, but I doubt it...

by DemMom 2008-03-11 05:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

But it is a fact that voters that believe Clinton's talk of a CiC threshold will largely come back to the Democratic fold when comes November and the war is against McCain who wants us to stay in Iraq for 100 years.
Even if you dont believe it is justified (I do), bottom line is African American community is absolutely encensed at some of the things said by Bill C. and sClinton surrogates
And young people enthusiastic about Obama will largely just move on if he is not the nominee.

It is not blackmail (if i lose, they wont support u). It is more of a realistic assessment. Most of her supporters, as you guys often point out, are loyal Democrats that may be mad now but will come home in November.
A lot of Obama's base is more based on who he is and will not switch. And some people are genuinely angry at her.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

A lot of Obama's base is based on Clinton hatred. Why do you guys want to deny this?

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 04:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

"And some people are genuinely angry at her"

I am certain they are, just as others are becoming quite disillusioned and angry with him.

Just now, I heard him say (on CNN) that he will support Clinton if she won, but that he did not believe the same was necessarily true about Clinton supporting him. That flies in the face of every remark Clinton has made to the contrary and frankly is a turnaround from the comments generated about a month ago casting doubt that he would support her. To me, this is negative and divisive. I guess it is all about perception, huh? ;0)

I sincerely hope that I can be one of those who forgets and can throw my support behind him for the betterment of our country if it comes down to it, but right now I just don't know. It seems that it is not only me, since my father who still defends him daily against the false reprots about his history, just told me he didn't know if he could vote for him now.

by DemMom 2008-03-11 05:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

When do the polls close? I am waiting for NBC to call it for Obama the moment it closes:-).

Jokes aside, I am curious to know the demographic ditribution and I hope it is not as painted by some in MSM.

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

It looks like some 40% of White voters are going to say race played a role in their choice... I'm not sure what the means, other than it is Mississippi

by CardBoard 2008-03-11 03:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

But it was only 20% in TX and OH

by CardBoard 2008-03-11 03:22PM | 0 recs

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(Comment Deleted)

This comment has been deleted by an administrator.

by CaptCT 2008-03-11 03:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

What on Earth are you babbling about? What did one of the Clintons say to merit that?

Man. Maybe Obama supporters DO drink too many lattes. You need to mellow out a little.

by ColoradoGuy 2008-03-11 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

What time do the polls close?

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-03-11 03:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

question of the hour

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-11 03:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

8pm ET

by NewOaklandDem 2008-03-11 03:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

It looks like Hillary's "If I can't have it, Obama can't either" strategy is working. Or else Limbaugh is getting a lot of Repubs out for Hillary.

MS Hillary voters seem to dig McCain. MS Obama voters don't.

by peter peter 2008-03-11 03:13PM | 0 recs

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Is that only HER strategy?

by lombard 2008-03-11 03:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I thought it was a GOOD thing that lots of Republicans are turning out to vote in the Dem primaries? Or was that just when they were voting for Obama?

by ColoradoGuy 2008-03-11 03:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I doubt many republicans came to vote this time.
There were congressional primaries in CD1 and CD4 and if they voted on the Democratic ballot, they couldnt vote for the actual Republican primaries.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I think you misunderstand. It's a good thing when unaffiliated voters vote in the Dem primary; when the GOPs vote it's suspicious.

by mady 2008-03-11 03:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

As per Texas results and the ones before that, Republicans have voted for Obama more than Hillary. So why is it suspicious?

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Because independents tend not to have an agenda except who captures their imaginations in the election. Republicans who already have a party affiliation may be voting for who they like or may vote to skew the results, you don't know.

by mady 2008-03-11 04:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

This is Obama's last good performance. From here on out, it is Hilary's show.

Pa, WV, Ky, In, Mi, Fl, an Puerto Rico favor her.

Obama may pick up North Carolina and Oregon, but that is it.

The Rezko trial will show that he has been less than forthcoming about his relationship to Rezko.

by dantch 2008-03-11 03:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

You mean like less than forthcoming about her taxes? Less than truthful about her foreign policy experience? Less than truthful about her support of NAFTA? You mean less than forthcoming like that?

by Rockville Liberal 2008-03-11 03:19PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Hillary never claimed that she is more than forthcoming than you or me:-)

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:29PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Even her supporters play BS symantic games...I think it is easily apparant that she's isn't forthcoming, nor truthful. When the only thing you have to fall back on is fearmongering, racism, lies, and half-truths, you're over - it's just a matter of time...oh, and the math.

by Rockville Liberal 2008-03-11 03:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Obama is a patsy to bring in Bloomberg either as an independent candidate or as McCain's running mate. Many folks recognize this.

If Barack knocks Hillary out and gets the nomination, there will be an assault Obama from the financial-establishment controlled press. The Rezko connections will be but a small thing for them to use against him.

As a result, Obama will go down faster than you can say Rudy Giuliani. This is not difficult to figure out if you know that we are in the greatest financial meltdown in modern history.

by dantch 2008-03-11 03:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

So, if Hillary does better in Miss. than expected, and race plays a role...

... do Hillary supporters feel happy? Does Ferrarro become justified -- or does it show that appealing to people lesser angels works better than merely being appealing.

Clinton supporters: If you win, but polarize america further on race, is it still a win? If you lose, but in the process make your supporters so anti-Obama that he loses the election and the Supreme Court gets even more anti-abortiony, is that a win?

This all makes me think of Iraq. Clinton may have a plan to win the war with Obama -- but it's pretty clear she has no idea how to win the peace. And she'll need that to with the GE.

Clinton supporters: Is it worth it?

Never wanted to see a Democratic leader sound like Strom Thurmond. Or Ward Connerly. Sad days.

by Lettuce 2008-03-11 03:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Absolutly. I am so sad I was hoping Obama would help us usher a new era of race relations and instead this campaign is showing that even some Democrats are still playing those cards.
I am not even angry anymore. That Ferraro thing just makes me wanna cry for my country.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Hyperbole, anyone? I didn't like the Ferraro comment, but this wasn't warranted either. Race is not the only reason Clinton wins voters, unlike what some of y'all like to suggest.

by ejintx 2008-03-11 03:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

"They are attacking me because I am white"

I mean it doesn't get any more transparent than that, even if you want to give her the benefit of the doubt.

And while most Clinton supporters don't vote for her for those reasons, the numbers Todd mention earlier about whether Clinton voters in MS would support Obama show that unfortunately, that's largely the case for white voters down there.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I thought that was a pretty terrible statement until I read the context. You have read the context, right?

by Steve M 2008-03-11 03:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Yeah and it makes it worse for me. LOL

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Fair enough, hehe.

by Steve M 2008-03-11 04:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Are you talking about mine? I don't like the way I said it now that I'm reading it again.

by ejintx 2008-03-11 03:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Whoops, nevermind. My reading skills ain't so good today.

by ejintx 2008-03-11 03:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

The problem is that CNN doesn't break it down into relative groups - we don't necessarily know how exactly each age group, party self-identification and race voted. The question of race can be two way, and that's the data I'd like to see before making broad statements. Yes, I live in the South and admit that the racial tension's glaring present, but I don't want us to make broad sweeping statements about entire groups of people.

I want to remove race and gender from this conversation, and that's why I'm upset with Ferraro. I thought, perhaps, we could move beyond accusations of race cards, etc. But I want to make the point that while race is probably part of the consideration of part of the populace, Clinton's doing just about as well with these seniors as she does with most other states.

by ejintx 2008-03-11 03:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

im an ethnic minority, and i stand with hillary all day long.

by zane 2008-03-11 03:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Please dont mention Iraq. I am reminded of Obama's double talk and hypocrisy, which makes me angry. How can he try to fool common people with false promises.

Dont you agree that we should shun politicians who say anything popular to win?

I know you dont agree when it is Obama doing it:-)

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

May I remind you that Hillary and Obama have the EXACT same position on Iraq? Which is withdrawal within 12 to 16 months with the caveat that we don't know what will be happening on the ground in a year when all this will be decided.
She said the exact same thing - herself.

The only difference is that Obama knew it was a stupid idea to go there in the first place and Hillary still won't say it.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:36PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Saying anything to win? Again, like denouncing NAFTA after you support it? Saying you were a crucial part of the Northern Ireland Peace Accord when you were nothing more than window dressing for Bill (as stated by the guy that won the NOBEL PRIZE for bringing peace to N.I.), or saying that you helped bring peace to Bosnia by flying in when even the President wouldn't go? Yeah, she was part of a USO tour/show with Sinbad. Was he her NSC Advisor on that trip?

by Rockville Liberal 2008-03-11 03:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I'd just like to point out that other Hillary supporters are not making me "anti-Obama". I'm quite turned off by some of his supporters on the blogs, but some of Hillary's supporters embarass me as well.
I think he'd make a great president, but I prefer Hillary.

by skohayes 2008-03-11 04:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I would give a hug to everyone I met today were your take the universal take on this primary.

If everyone who understands even a modicum of how bad these last 8 years have been to the country and the people it was formed to protect and serve was that mature, I'd be ecstatic.

Why Obama gets invective when George W. Bush and John McCain LOST A US CITY, let alone the trashed military, economy, infrastructure and constitution... is just beyond me.

A High School Class President has met the threshold left by Bush. Let's not lose sight of that. President Obama and President Clinton run rings around anything President McCain's addled veto pen would conjure.

by Lettuce 2008-03-12 11:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Mr. Obama was the one who invited the Republicans to be Democrats for a day. If they are now voting for Hillary for whatever reason, I hope he doesn't whine.

by LadyEagle 2008-03-11 03:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

There is a difference though between voting for Obama because one likes Obama and voting for Hillary to make the primary last longer and be more destructive.
I won't complain either way because those are the rules and he benefited from them earlier so it is all fair and square but I am sure you can recognize the differnece

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:28PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Agreed. Similarly there is a difference between voting for Obama because you like him and voting for him because you hate Clintons.

Many republicans and some delusional democrats did that. Obama benefitted from that but never complained:-) So much for slimy politicians.

by Sandeep 2008-03-11 03:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

I was with you right until "slimy politicians".
This is what is wrong with this primary.

You could have made a very valid point on which i would have had to agree ... but then you had to insult him and go over-the-top thereby completely undermining your good point.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Unlike, say, Bill Clinton, who went on the Rush Limbaugh show after Limbaugh encouraged Repubs to vote Clinton in Ohio/Texas?

by tysonpublic 2008-03-11 03:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

The cross-candidate "charitable" numbers are indeed interesting given that a central argument of Obama supporters has been, as BHO himself stated, that Hillary supporters will definitely vote for him while he is not sure if his supporters will vote for Hillary. Personally, this theory always appeared like BS to me. I think that Obama has no idea what is going to hit him in places like NJ. The democratic majority in NJ includes large number of Reagon democrats (or I should say latter day democrats who really have deep rupublicans roots)in addition to recent immigrants, latinos, etc. What is going to prove to be Obama's undoing here is not race but his "thin resume". And believe me this carries a lot of weight here. I remember that in 2000 a lot of republican friends would say that GWB has good ideas but does not seem to be seasoned enough and they couldn't make themselves vote for him. So Gore won with a cool 12% without spending like an hour campaiging here. By 2004 lot's of these latter day dems wanted to give Bush a second chance in view of 9/11 so Kerry was down to 6%. So despite of what Obama may want to believe, in a place like NJ the democratic majority is tenuous at best, MacCain is well respected, Obama's attacks on Clinton(s) have not played well (who also are well liked around here), and 2 years of Senate experience for a resume does not cut it. I would hazard that if the choice is McCain/Obama about 20-30% of the Kerry voters will end up voting for McCain. I suspect there are a few other NE states Obama will have problems in like New Hamshire, RI, Connecticut.

by ScottinNJ 2008-03-11 03:39PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

The idea that Obama would lose Connecticut or Rhode Island in a general election is silly.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 03:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Some Preliminary MS Exit Polling

Well I would take RI out of the list as I don't know that state so well. But Connecticut will definitely be a problem state for Obama. In some ways like NJ. This would very likely be the Lamont-Lieberman story where Lamont consolidated the anti-war vote and swept the primary. But Lieberman won with republicans+indy's+20-30% moderate dems. Plus don't forget Lieberman will be speaking at the RNC picking all the holes in Obama's resume.

by ScottinNJ 2008-03-11 03:57PM | 0 recs