MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Clinton

by Todd Beeton, Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 03:59:46 PM EDT

In Wyoming on Saturday, Hillary Clinton suffered a 61-39% loss to Barack Obama, yet she came out of the state with only 2 fewer delegates (their 7-5 split represented a slightly better 58%-42% allocation of delegates.) Likewise, the allocation rules out of Mississippi today would appear to benefit Clinton in that a huge Obama popular vote victory will translate to merely modest delegate gains.

Recall Cotton Mouth Blog's explanation of how delegates are allocated in Mississippi:

The state of Mississippi has 33 total pledged delegates attached to the results of Tuesday's primary. [...]
The Democrats split the pledged delegate count (33) up in a 65-35 proportion, with 65% to be awarded at the congressional district level, while 35% will be split proportionately based on the overall statewide popular vote.

In other words, 11 are allocated by the statewide popular vote and the remaining 22 are awarded by how each candidate performs in each of the state's four congressional districts (MS-1: 5, MS-2: 7, MS-3: 5, MS-4: 5.)

First the 11:

These 11 delegates are divided proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. So say Obama gets 61% of the statewide popular vote, he would get 61% of 11, which is 7. Hillary would get 4 in this scenario.

I'm going to bet Obama does not break 60%, so let's assume those 11 delegates go 6-5 Obama.

Now, for the fate of the remaining 22, awarded according to performance by congressional district, Chris Bowers weighs in:

MS-01: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama, but probably 3-2 Clinton.
MS-02: Probably 5-2 Obama.
MS-03: Either 3-2 Clinton or 3-2 Obama
MS-04: Probably 3-2 Clinton.

So a plausible scenario, even with a 60%-40% Obama win, is an 18-15 delegate split in Obama's favor, which, again, would mean Obama gets screwed since his 20% popular vote win would roughly break down to a 10 point 55%-45% delegate split.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, mississippi primary (all tags)

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

Which is fair enough since he took advantage of that screwed-up delegate allocation system in other states.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-11 04:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

I agree, and I'm an Obama supporter. MS will boost his popular vote lead more considerably, however.

by DPW 2008-03-11 04:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

If he hits the mid 60s like he did in Georgia he could conceivably win 21-12 delegates. But 20-13 or 19-14 seems more likely. 18-15 is about the worst he can do.

Keep in mind, all four districts have significant African-American populations, though surprisingly Gene Taylor's district has even less than both GOP districts.

by Skaje 2008-03-11 04:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

This far along in the race, I don't think this data affects perceptions. Obama has proven his ability to attract win support outside of the deep south. And general election polling is available to quell fears about white flight. I mean, really, is anyone that surprised by this?

by DPW 2008-03-11 04:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

should say "attract 'white' support"

by DPW 2008-03-11 04:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

That's not the narrative Senator Clinton wants either.

by Skaje 2008-03-11 04:06PM | 0 recs

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I think Obama needs to win by 18.18% for 7-4

If you don't like arithmetic, skip this comment.

A 7-4 split represents 7/11 of the vote; a 6-5 split, 6/11.

Halfway in between is 13/22, or 59.0909...%.
If no votes for anyone else, the loser would have 9/22 of the vote, or 40.9090...%.

The difference is 18.1818...%. Since under the rules (if I understand them correctly), any third-candidate votes get split equally between the candidates with >15% of the vote (i.e. Hillary and Obama), 18.18...% of the vote is the margin Obama needs over Hillary, regardless of the actual percentages they each get, in order for Obama to get that seventh statewide delegate.

Corrections are welcome, if I've goofed anywhere.

by RT 2008-03-11 04:13PM | 0 recs

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Hillary wins Republicans, 77-23

Vote by Party ID:

Democrat (70%) 32% C, 67% O
Republican (13%) 77% C, 23% O
Independent (17%) 48% C, 51% O

She must be the Democrat's Democrat.

She and Rush Limbaugh really do need each other.

by elrod 2008-03-11 04:33PM | 0 recs

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Re: Hillary wins Republicans, 77-23

Chuck Todd says it looks like a 20-13 split, says it erases Ohio

Also says that 2 districts in OH look like Obama might gain when the final votes are certified.

Interesting

by Wiz in Wis 2008-03-11 04:40PM | 0 recs

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MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Clinton

This same proportional system is what makes PA so tough for Clinton to turn the tide -- she needs 65-35.(70-30 would be better) I am afraid that -- in PA the Clintons hardly lay a glove on Oabama. It's looking good for the Obama man.
Now, if Clinton continues to unleash the dogs of racism wa la Ferraro -- that might help her in parts of PA. Still, you know that will come back to bite her in NC and the GE. This is really Obama's to lose. Anything else is spin.

by NYWoman 2008-03-11 04:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton

finally some insight on how Clinton is killing her chances... thank you

by Wiz in Wis 2008-03-11 04:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

he is getting 59 or 58%, according to exit poll, means he is geting 6 out of 11 state-wide delegates
and Hillary will get 5. If district number you giving us are correct, he will get 2+5+2+2=11
and she will get 3+2+3+3=11. So net result will be
16 for Obama, 15 for Hillary or 18 for Obama and 15 for Hillary.

by engels 2008-03-11 04:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

I meant to say either 17-16 or 18-15

by engels 2008-03-11 04:43PM | 0 recs

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This whole system is screwed up.

Every day we get another reminder as to why, including that nobody has any clue what the results of the Texas caucuses are a week after they happened.

by OrangeFur 2008-03-11 04:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: MS Delegate Allocation System Favorable To Cli

This is not "how delegates are allocated in Mississippi", it is how delegates are allocated in all states, according to DNC rules, and this argument that it favors Clinton in this case doesn't make any sense. Yes, Obama might get more delegates if they were all awarded according to the state's popular vote, but they aren't. He would also get more in a winner-take-all system, but it isn't. He might get fewer if each district had an even number of delegates. And who knows what would happen if we just had a single national primary. Among these fantasy delegation scenarios, the one based on statewide popular vote enjoys no special status: they are all equally irrelevant.

by Mth 2008-03-11 05:07PM | 0 recs