Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Poll

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:17:36 PM EST

As Todd noted today, Barack Obama campaigned today in Rhode Island, a state conventional wisdom holds to be more favorable to Hillary Clinton than any oaf the other March 4th primary states. Indeed, recent polling from Rasmussen Reports and American Research Group put Clinton up 15 points and 12 points, respectively, in the state. Now a new Fleming & Associates poll is in that offers not entirely dissimilar results.

Hillary Clinton: 49 points
Barack Obama: 40 points

The survey found an overwhelming gender gap in the state, with Clinton leading among women by 32 points and Obama leading among men by 18 -- a net 50 point difference. While it's certainly possible that there will be such a great split on Tuesday, the gender gap was 27 points in neighboring Massachusetts and 34 points in neighboring Connecticut last month, so I'm not entirely convinced that there will be such a large split.

With the race in Rhode Island not as close as it is in Texas or Ohio -- though probably closer than many prognosticators thought it would be -- and Obama apparently trying to make a play for the state, I'm admittedly having trouble figuring out exactly where things stand in the state. For whatever it's worth, from this vantage it appears that Clinton has a distinct advantage over Obama in Rhode Island, but not one that is likely large enough for Clinton to score a huge victory along long the lines of those achieved by the Obama campaign in the last 10 contests (each of which Obama won by 17 or more points).

Tags: Democratic primaries, Rhode Island, Rhode Island Primary (all tags)

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island

It's clear why Obama is there today. Look at the Clinton memo from yesterday. If Obama doesn't get a clean sweep on Tuesday, his campaign is in big trouble!

by NJIndependent 2008-03-01 12:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island

Huge trouble! It's practically over if he does not win all 4 states, he could as well concede the nomination to Mark Penn.

by marcotom 2008-03-01 12:46PM | 0 recs

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Tonight R.I. Fundraiser

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghSJsEVf0 pU

http://www.rifuture.org/

TONIGHT: Obama Fundraiser!
by: Matt Jerzyk

Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:44:33 AM EST

There is a great a great RI Party for Obama tonight featuring Dr. Anthony Lake, the National Security Advisor to President Clinton (1993-1997) and Attorney General Patrick Lynch. The event is from 630p to 900pm at Tazza Caffe (250 Westminster Street, Providence). There is a suggested donation of anywhere between $10-$250.

The Host Committee for this event includes Abu Bakr, Anna Cano-Morales, Mitchell Edwards, Damian and Stephanie Ewens, Eileen Hayes, MJ Kaplan, Kelly Mahoney, Ari Matusiak, Clay Pell, T'Sey-Haye Preaster, Walter Stone, Scott and Natalie Triedman.

by dearreader 2008-03-01 02:13PM | 0 recs

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Obama Parma Ohio 3/1/2008 CSpan broadcast

Obama in Parma Heights Ohio
3/1/2008 check back on CSpan to see when this town hall meeting is rebroadcast: Questions and Answers

paraphrased notes:

in 1993-94 Hillary made her health care reform plans private; not even Congressional Democrats who could contribute or help her were allowed to be involved; by the time she announced her plan to the public the media had created prejudice and fear about it; ( the Henry/Harry and Louise ads had saturated the public ) the GOP opposition had attacked and sunk it; consequently even the Democratic Congressional members did not support or vote for her plan; subsequently the GOP took over Congress in sweeping overturn of the Dem Congressional majority in 1994;

Obama said he would create the reform plan in meetings done live on CSpan; he would chair the meetings would make the pharmaceutical companies and insurance companies accountable and he/Obama would be accountable to the American people; nothing would be done behind closed doors it would be a reform that the public would be a part of;

by dearreader 2008-03-01 04:43PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island

I think HRC will win Rhode and Obama will will Island. Nearly an even split in delegates regarless of percent of popular vote.

by mchughusa 2008-03-01 12:21PM | 0 recs

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Clinton will win Providence Plantations

But Obama will win Rhode Island. The state isn't nearly small enough to be divided into two further states.

by elrod 2008-03-01 12:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Pol

Only big states matter, so the smallest state in the Union is beyond insignificant, right?

by Kal 2008-03-01 12:23PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Pol

No, no, it's absolutely critical. If Obama sweeps OH and TX but loses RI, it's all over for him.

by NJIndependent 2008-03-01 01:15PM | 0 recs

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Absolutely

Obama shows a real weakness in the New England swing states.

If Obama cannot win NY, MA, RI, and NJ -- how in the world will he win the fall election?

/snark

by zonk 2008-03-01 01:26PM | 0 recs

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do you think

MA is going to vote for McCain? etc.

by dearreader 2008-03-01 02:14PM | 0 recs

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Obama's there....

To do the same thing he did on super Tuesday- keep the losing states close enough so that his wins matter more. Direct contrast to the Clinton campaign's wholesale write off of any state they couldn't win, which allowed Obama to blow her out of the water in those states, and increase his delegate count.

It really is almost like no one mentioned the whole proportional representation thing to the Clinton campaign...

by Brillobreaks 2008-03-01 12:34PM | 0 recs

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Donate to Hillary Now!

Please rate up this diary!
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/1/17220 /72714

Also, remember to Take Action!
http://hillaryclinton.com/actioncenter/

by kevin22262 2008-03-01 12:38PM | 0 recs

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Re: Wait

I kind of agree with you, but I'm not going to slam anyone for a pro-Hillary diary as opposed to the daily onslaught of Obama smear pieces that we're subjected to.

by NJIndependent 2008-03-01 02:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Pol

Thinking is that if 60,000 vote it could be a toss up. 50k voted in 1992. If it's 70,000 Obama could take it.

While Hillary is going to argue she won the big states. Obama is going to argue in addition to winning more states, in those he lost he was more was more competitive than she was and therefore reflects the voters choice across the country more than she does.

by CB Todd 2008-03-01 12:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Pol

I'm guessing he loses by 5-10 points.

There seem to still be lots of undecideds in these surveys, and Obama is campaigning there Saturday (which, for whatever reason, any place he touches seems to turn to electoral gold, so we'll see what happens).

Add in the latest round of attacks from HRC which I think could end up actually hurting her, and I think Obama will probably get to within that 5-10% mark. Doing better than that wouldn't entirely surprise me, but doing worse than that, while possible, seems less likely to me.

by leshrac55 2008-03-01 01:22PM | 0 recs

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Clinton down to 9 Point lead in Rhode Island

Seems like a better title for the post.
Don't be offering any false hopes.

As it was almost 20% before. And the last of the big lead HRC states.

by inexile 2008-03-01 01:34PM | 0 recs

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Re: Clinton Up 9 Points in Rhode Island in New Pol

I remember before 2/5 all anyone could talk about with CA, CA, CA. And I was enchanted by it too and couldn't figure out why Barack wasn't there. Why he is in all these little states, flyover country, day after day while CA hung in the balance. Now that those little states have paved his way to the nomination, I know which one of us is the professional politician.

If he's in RI, it's for one of three reasons:

1. He is confident, based on the internal polling, that he cannot win TX or OH.

2. He is confident, for the same reason, that they are in the bag.

3. He is building his brand, part of which is that he competes everywhere and fights for every state.

Tuesday night, we'll know which.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-01 07:17PM | 0 recs