Clinton Won 48.97% to 48.04% -- or 50.2% to 49.8% -- on 2/5

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There is no such thing as a nationwide primary, and even if there were yesterday wouldn't have been it (just under half of states voted, not all of them). That said, for those interested in seeing how the votes panned out yesterday, two bloggers have taken a look at the numbers and come up with popular vote totals from across the country.

Domenico Montanaro:

With almost all of the voting in, here's the popular vote calculation for the Democrats:

Clinton 48.97% (6,967,302)
Obama 48.04% (6,835,447)

Based on totals on MSNBC.com, there are still some outstanding votes. There is only 82% reporting in Minnesota; Arkansas is 92% in; Arizona is 93% in; California is 96%; Illinois is 97%; New Mexico is 98%; Alaska looks like delegate votes not raw vote.

Tom Schaller does some number crunching of his own, and using a slightly different metric and basing the totals on results from a different source (CNN v. MSNBC), he finds:

Using CNN's reported results , and rounding to the nearest thousand (both when inputing the numbers into my speadsheet and in the totals)--and noting that there still some votes still to be counted in New Mexico, not that it will upset the overall result to report here--I have a preliminary total of 7.35M votes yesterday for Hillary Clinton and 7.29 for Barack Obama.

Overall, a total vote margin of about 65K despite nearly 15 million total votes cast for one or the other. Ignoring all other stray votes, that gives her 50.2 percent of the two-candidate vote share and him the balance, 49.8 percent.

Either way you slice it, it appears that the overall vote margin between Clinton and Obama was remarkably small -- certainly smaller than the overall difference between the number of people voting in Democratic and Republican primaries (upwards of 50 to 100 percent more voters may have participated in Democratic than Republican contests yesterday). And with both sides seeming to agree that the delegate haul yesterday was fairly close -- the Obama campaign is projecting their candidate winning 847 delegates to 834 delegates; the Clinton campaign is claiming a one delegate lead for its candidate -- it's hard not to come to the conclusion that, expectations aside (and I'll get to that point in a subsequent post today, hopefully), this was about as close to a tie as things come in politics.

Tags: Democratic primaries, Super Tuesday (all tags)

Comments

55 Comments

For someone that

was back around 10 points as of 10 days ago, in Rassmussen, Gallup, NYT/CBS, this is quite a showing.  Now the question does the shift continue?

by CardBoard 2008-02-06 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: For someone that

Very good question. Time is on Obama's side and had there been a few more weeks between SC and Big Tuesday, one would only expect that Obama's numbers would have been higher. Apparently, many people are taking a second look at the prospect of going back to the Clinton administration of the 90s, and there is no indication that Hillary means anything else by her "experience" mantra.

Now isn't that becoming the problem: people are asking: experienced at what?

by shergald 2008-02-06 11:01AM | 0 recs
Time may be on Hillary's side

If she can hold her delegate lead into March, she should surge ahead in states like TX, OH, IN, KY, and PA in March/April, if voter patterns in those states remain relatively stable.

by enthusiast 2008-02-06 11:06AM | 0 recs
What delegate lead?

You mean with unpledged superdelegates?

Hillary needed to be ahead by about 150-200 pledged delegates at this point to puncture Obama's momentum for February. Then she could finish him off on March 4. That was her plan all along, if she couldn't knock him out on Super Tuesday.

But that didn't work. He ended up winning pledged delegates by a small amount, adding to his existing 15 delegate lead.

Superdelegates are meaningless at this point. They will move as a herd toward the eventual pledged delegate winner. Count on it.

by elrod 2008-02-06 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: What delegate lead?

Super delegates will support the popular vote winner of their home state.

Why should an elected or party official care about pledged delegates from a totally different state?

That would be indefensible.

by rcipw 2008-02-06 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: What delegate lead?
Super delegates will support the popular vote winner of their home state.

Then what's taking them so long? More than half of the superdelegates should have committed based on that logic.
I think in the end the majority of superdelegates will flock to the pledged delegate leader, if we ever have one.
by LandStander 2008-02-06 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Time may be on Hillary's side

I agree.  With her total delegate count, if she can get a little over 40% of the vote in the states Obama wins, then she will be in good shape for OH and TX.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-06 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Won

Are the caucuses included in this?  I thought the actual numbers of voters at caucuses are not released, just the number of state delegates the candidates receive.  And state delegates are not split between the candidates based solely on votes.  or not?

by musicpvm 2008-02-06 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Won

It appears that raw vote totals were released for all caucuses except Alaska, which probably had minimal turnout.

The delegates are split differently in each state, but nearly all have a system in which the majority are allocated proportionally by congressional district (each district has different numbers) and a minority are allocated proportionally according to the statewide percentages.

by FuzzyDunlop2 2008-02-06 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Won

Thanks for the clarification.

by musicpvm 2008-02-06 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Won

But caucus turnout will always be smaller - much smaller - than primary turnout. Sure, Obama's margin of victory would have been lower in Colorado and Idaho in a primary, but he still would have won and the number of votes cast would have pushed him over Clinton. Same holds for Minnesota.

by elrod 2008-02-06 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Won

Turnout in Alaska for Obama was 8621 or 1.8% of the registered voters.

by wasabi 2008-02-06 11:30AM | 0 recs
Clinton

Has support of half the party, while Obama doesn't.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-06 10:39AM | 0 recs
Total votes

The total votes cast to date:

Clinton: 8,886,712 (55.5%)
Obama: 7,132,964 (45.5%)

These do not include the caucus states of Nevada, Iowa, and Alaska which would bump up Obama slightly. These give Obama credit for all of the "uncommitted" delegates in Michigan.

The fact of the matter is that Clinton is dominating in the big states that are crucial to a Democratic win in the Electoral College: California, New York, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee.

The fact of the matter is that she is dominating in terms of solidifying a Democratic majority: women, Latino/a, Asian American, blue collar Reagan Democrats. She even won the 18-29 vote on both coasts yesterday (Massachusetts and California).

The fact of the matter is that she is showing strength in key swing states like Florida, Michigan, Tennessee, and Arkansas, while many of Obama's wins are coming in states that wouldn't vote Democratic if Ronald Reagan switched parties (SC, GA, Kansas, Alabama, North Dakota).

The fact of the matter is that Clinton is winning the key "downticket" districts by winning the key rural and suburban areas of states like New Jersey and Missouri and California. Suburban women supporting the top of the ticket give the Democrats a fighting chance at the purple districts while, in state after state, Obama's vote totals are coming from urban areas that already lean solid Democrat.

by hwc 2008-02-06 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes

Thanks.  This is much truer reflection of popular vote so far..

by Opandora 2008-02-06 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes

hwc, you are smart!

And you were spot on about Mass.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-06 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes

The fact of the matter is Hillary Clinton blew it yesterday. She couldn't turn her advantage in the big states - which ANY Democrat will win in November - into a delegate lead by night's end.

The fact of the matter is Hillary Clinton abandoned much of the country - including purple Minnesota and Colorado - because she couldn't figure out how to organize a caucus.

Spin it all you want. Hillary needed to put Obama away by 150-200 delegates last night and she failed to do it because she forgot that there are actual Democrats in "flyover" country (outside AR, TN and OK). Like John Kerry gunning for swing states, Hillary conceded most of the country to Obama. And she paid the price in delegate counts. Now she has no cushion as the calender turns to Obama's favor.

But don't worry, I'm sure she'll be able to loan herself another $5 million to sustain her to March 4.

by elrod 2008-02-06 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes

Yes thats right include Florida and Michigan to prove HRC won supertuesday.

Not very convincing arguments.

Not even very fair, a little disingenuous, and think I smell  . . . desperation?

OK so at least we agree she's not the front runner anymore.

HRC is no longer inevitable.

Please pick up your underdog mantle on the way out.

by inexile 2008-02-06 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes
The fact of the matter is that Clinton is dominating in the big states that are crucial to a Democratic win in the Electoral College: California, New York, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee.

Are you implying that Obama can't carry these states in the General? Or are you saying these states are more 'important' in determining the nominee because they traditional vote Democratic?
by LandStander 2008-02-06 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Total votes

Both, depending on the state.

by hwc 2008-02-06 12:23PM | 0 recs
Shouldn't all you hillbots

be heading down the bakesale or car wash -- or whatever it is that Hillary is asking for with today's e-mail --- or do you just expect her to lend her campaign ANOTHER 5 million!

by zonk 2008-02-06 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Shouldn't all you hillbots

zonk--zoinks!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-06 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Shouldn't all you hillbots

Bitter are we?

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-06 11:26AM | 0 recs
More like

giddy.

I just tivoed that HRC presser.... pure comedy gold!  Gold!

She looks dazed.  

She knows it's just about over.

by zonk 2008-02-06 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: More like

Do tell then why was Obama shrieking and whining last night? I think you see what you want to see. You've been all about Hillary's Dead for weeks now. Too bad you want to lose a winnable election so badly just to make yourself feel sanctimonious.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-06 01:11PM | 0 recs
The Clinton Have Donated 5 million to their

campaign.  Obama supporters are matching it in the next two days.  The Clinton Campaign is in big financial trouble.  This means the January numbers were Obama 33 million Clinton 8.7 million.

Bill Clinton in Iowa  Dec 24, 2007

"They say you couldn't stop me from spending all the money I've saved over the last five years on Hillary's campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform."

by CardBoard 2008-02-06 10:58AM | 0 recs
no, TPM confirmed with the Clinton campaign

that the $13 million raised in January did NOT include the $5 million she loaned her own campaign.

It is incredible to think that Clinton will be outspent in this campaign. A year ago I'd have thought that she would spend more than all other candidates combined.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-06 11:02AM | 0 recs
or 50.2% to 49.8% -- on 2/5

Wow.  Hillary loaned herself 5 Million in January so she raised much, much less than Obama.  Will she loan herself more?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Clinton_loaned_her_campaign_5_millio n.html

by Vox Populi 2008-02-06 11:01AM | 0 recs
according to TPM

the $13 million raised in January did NOT include the $5 million loan to the campaign.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-06 11:02AM | 0 recs
Right

So it's two different kinds of bad news rather than 2 of the same type of bad news.

This means her burn rate has to be quite high.

by zonk 2008-02-06 11:20AM | 0 recs
Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Six of the contests that Obama won were caucus states.  Fifty percent of the states (California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts) that Hillary won are essential to a Democratic electoral strategy.  Only 28.6% of Obama's primary wins (Illinois, Connecticut) were essential to Democratic chances.  

How can anyone who wins not one of California, New York, or Florida lay claim to the party mantel?

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-06 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Hillary has lost the black vote overwhelmingly.  Can anyone who loses the black vote lay claim to the party mantel?

by Vox Populi 2008-02-06 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

It's a fallacy to suggest that black voters going for Obama heavily in the primaries will not vote for Clinton in the general.  

by InigoMontoya 2008-02-06 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

It's a fallacy to suggest that black voters going for Obama heavily in the primaries will not vote for Clinton in the general.  

If Obama falters, if Hill starts winning enough to catch up in delegates, if there are no rules weirdnesses, if it doesnt appear that Obama had the Nomination stolen, then yes you are correct.

If not then black Americans will not come out in great numbers and enthusiasm, and even blue states may come into to play.

Do not make this mistake, old style, strong arm, dirty or manipulative tactics to achieve a Clinton victory --will be pyrrhic.

by inexile 2008-02-06 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

It's an equal fallacy to suggest that Obama would not win all of the big states mentioned against McCain. Clinton had huge institutional advantages in all of the big states. Obama losing to Clinton in NY, CA and AR is in no way a reflection on his potential strength in those states in the general election.

by Lawdawg 2008-02-06 11:38AM | 0 recs
it's also a fallacy that...

California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts will not vote for Obama in the general.

by mboehm 2008-02-06 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

And Obama was crushed among both women and Latinos.  

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-06 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

That's not my point.  It's ridiculous to think those Democratic voters won't support Obama in the Fall, just as it's ridiculous to assert black voters won't support Clinton.

by Vox Populi 2008-02-06 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Because our party is about 50 states not 3.

by CardBoard 2008-02-06 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

So is Obama going to carry ID, SC, KS, ND in the fall?

by bayareasg 2008-02-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

totally agree! thats been my point too

by bayareasg 2008-02-06 11:17AM | 0 recs
I'll say it for the 5th time

We could run the corpse of Adlai Stevenson and win CA, NJ, NY, and MA.

by zonk 2008-02-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: I'll say it for the 5th time

I prefer the corpse of LBJ.  The Great Undead Society.

by rfahey22 2008-02-06 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Obama won 14 states last night what do you mean?

by inexile 2008-02-06 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Have they confirmed NM yet for Obama? As of right now, I have him down for 13 states won vs. a meager 8 for Hillary

by Jr1886 2008-02-06 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Meager eight?   If you want to spin that way, it's your privilege.  But North Dakota, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Kansas don't exactly make me quiver.

The only two losses for Clinton that sting a bit are Connecticut, not unexpected given the demographics, and Missouri, which was just a flat out tight contest.

I evaluate yesterday's results very easily:  which set of cards would I rather play?

Obama will probably win the five caucus states coming up but then Hillary will come back and win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

by InigoMontoya 2008-02-06 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

As of 2:06PM EST with 98% counted CNN has NM within 210 votes, for Hillary.  Wow, now that's a squeaker.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-06 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

Obama won six CAUCUSES.  

How many people voted in Alaska?  406 people (that's right, four hundred and six.)

How many people voted in North Dakota?  18,000 (and half of them had four legs, someone told me.)

I could go on and on.  Obama wants to tout these silly wins, let him.

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-06 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton has won 8 primaries; Obama won 7.

First, FL didn't count for anything, and second, if you're suggesting either that CA and NY should pick the Dem nominee or that Obama can't carry either of those states in a general election, do I really need to explain why you're wrong on both points?

by NJIndependent 2008-02-06 11:58AM | 0 recs
Clinton lost. & No money -she's self funding.

Wow this is what used to do trying to make people think Edwards was going to win.

She lost.

Clinton lost the primary on super tuesday.

Lost in delgate count and states.

Obama came in just days from millions back to less than one percent of voters. Across the nation. Came from way behind to win.

Wait I think you should add the votes each of the super delegates got in their capacities. For example if Boxer endorses HRC, then you can add her several million votes too. Hey Multiply it by the number of times they were elected.

This used to be a little less of a "what can I say to move my candidate forward" site then it has become.

I urged people to commit to a candidate, for many weeks, but I assumed it would be about issues and stuff. This is just silly.

The Clinton campaign is admitting to self funding, they can't raise enough to continue. They lost the race for states and for delegates. They lost momentum. IMHO they have lost the imagination of the nation.

Are you suggesting that convention count votes from primaries and caucuses? Do you want to do away with delegates completely? Or is this just the ground work for an ugly ugly campaign destroying credential fight at the convention.

A lot, a lot, of people will be very very disappointed and angry with the Clintons and the party if Obama is denied the Nomination because of rules irregularities.

That would not bode well for victory in November.

by inexile 2008-02-06 11:18AM | 0 recs
Hillary won more votes on Super Tuesday.

and more votes overall, nationwide.

You have to count Florida in the national vote total, even if you don't yet count their delegates.

by enthusiast 2008-02-06 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: the great ironies

She was supposed to raise more money than Obama throughout the campaign. She couldn't

She was supposed to blow obama out on Super-Tuesday. She couldn't

She should be worried http://www.politico.com/news/stories/020 8/8363.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/02/road_ahead_tough_for_clinton.h tml

by Jr1886 2008-02-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Guess who said this?? answer below

They say you couldn't stop me from spending all the money I've saved over the last five years on Hillary's campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform

Bill Clinton-ahhhhhaaa
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/02/clinton_weighs_a_selfloan_t o_f.php#comments

by Jr1886 2008-02-06 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Wo

just look at the next 10 primariescaucuses, Obama could very well win all 10 of them.

by mecarr 2008-02-06 12:01PM | 0 recs
Wrong info

I don't know where you are getting your numbers.
I entered all the vote totals in a spreadsheet this afternoon. The only state I didn't add was the tiny caucus in Alaska.

Here are the totals from just yesterday:

Clinton: 7,457,716 (53%)
Obama: 6,654,951 (47%)

The gap is wider when you count all the states so far 55% to 45% because of the huge vote tallies in Michigan and Florida.

by hwc 2008-02-06 03:12PM | 0 recs

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