Sorta feels like half-time

Open thread, time for a breather.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

112 Comments

Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

EAT ME.

I love it.  Has there ever been greater egg on face?

I have said all along endorsements are nice they drive press, but in the end are meaningless.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-05 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

To be fair, Obama won in Clinton's back yard of Connecticut.  She should have won that state easily.

by Vox Populi 2008-02-05 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

Is Ted Kennedy the senator from CT?

by ottovbvs 2008-02-05 05:37PM | 0 recs
yes

.

by Teaser 2008-02-05 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

No.

by Vox Populi 2008-02-05 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

Democratic primary voters in Connecticut are VERY anti-establishment.  She should have never been expected to win that.

by DemJedi 2008-02-05 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

They've been tied in CT since before Edwards dropped out.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 05:39PM | 0 recs
can't agree with you here, Vox

CT is limousine liberal territory. Obama kills Clinton among the wealthiest whites.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: can't agree with you here, Vox

But he was trailing her in CT by double digits only a week ago.  This is a major coup for him.  He also destroyed her in IL by 30 points and she only bested him by 15 in NY.

by Vox Populi 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

You do realize that exit polls show that Hillary won among democrats that have a favorable view of Lieberman, right?  Sort of hurts your line of argument...

by HSTruman 2008-02-05 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

I'll look for the link, but it's true.  I saw it before.  32% of Democrats viw Lieberman favorably.  Hillary won those voters, which makes sense, b/c her base is the same as Lieberman's in the state.  He won blue collar, lower-income democrats as well.

by HSTruman 2008-02-05 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

in ned lamont hippy-yuppie latte grande land? please!?

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

Don't be daft. The endorsements failed? You're a fool. Obama was at 22 before the endorsements. Where did he end up? If it's higher than 22, then they're endorsements helped.

Obama was also hurting nationally among whites and older voters. Looks like he's moving up there too.

You're also forgetting the fact that Kennedy brings an incredible fundraising network.

How has Obama's fundraising been lately relative to Clinton's? I rest my case.

by wolff109 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Endorsements

Contested races tighten, we have two solid competitors. Even before his recent endorsements Obama was getting close to or beating Clinton. He would have closed the gap without the endorsements. Nice for the Kennedys though to get some of his glow, keeps the JFK flame lit.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
hullo mass? miss that?

money, yes,oh yes...

the rest,no,no,no...nothing.

except for those on donor lists ,nobody gives an f about these kennedys no more.

thankfully.

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 05:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to Kerry, Kennedy, Patrick, ...

right ho!

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
So far Obama has won more states

than Clinton.

Who would have thought a week ago?

by puma 2008-02-05 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

ok well which is it...states or delegates that are important to the obama fans? it seems to keep switching with how the night goes.

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

He beat her by 30 in IL and she beat him by 15 in NY.  He's doing very well tonight.

by Vox Populi 2008-02-05 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

She took a number of those southern counties.. I will be interested to see the delegate allotment particularly IL 12, and IL 19.

by hctb 2008-02-05 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

Nobody has every accused Obamabots of being reality based and rational....

by need some wood 2008-02-05 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

Doesn't really matter... he's got more states and more pledged delegates according to Politico - 606-534. Keep including those superdelegates though; oh and Michigan and Florida!

A side note - One of the networks should have split the reporting into two channels; the focus on the Republican primaries are so plodding.

by craigk724 2008-02-05 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: So far Obama has won more states

Last week people were saying he was gonna win Illinois and Georgia and that's it. And he's won more states than Clinton so far.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:37PM | 0 recs
Exactly!

I specifically remember Mydd saying that Obama was ONLY going to win 3 states and now it looks like he will end up winning more states than Clinton from the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

Amazing!!!

by puma 2008-02-05 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly!

I remember that too. Hillary got her ass kicked in many more states. Go Obama!

by Oregonian 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Exactly!

To move the numbers this much in one week is an achievement. Ultimately, however, the delegate count will be what matters.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
let'see....

the entire media and every single one of you cultists!

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 05:51PM | 0 recs
New Mexico

we'll be getting results soon.  Some people still at the polls, an hour and a half after they closed.

by fbihop 2008-02-05 05:33PM | 0 recs
That Was The Torch?

If Clinton wins Missouri, you might as well put a fork in the Kennedys, Kerry, Patrick, and McCaskill.  They're done.

by BigBoyBlue 2008-02-05 05:36PM | 0 recs
Re: That Was The Torch?

Define fork, please.  Is there any evidence that politicians who support an eventual-losing candidate for a primary get swept out of office in the next election?  

by alydar 2008-02-05 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Werd: To Obama supporters, it is both. It just changes depending on who wins the states.

by ND1979 2008-02-05 05:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Watching Romney talk now...i just cant believe a word he says...it always sounds so scripted and fake.

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

So far, in terms of the spin war, advantage Clinton.

by blueflorida 2008-02-05 05:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Romney's wife looks like she wants to go home.

by ND1979 2008-02-05 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

OH yes mitt...you're just like one of us...one of the working class. i know i too go to sleep on a bed made of $100 bills also.

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:40PM | 0 recs
Now for the delegate count.

It will be interesting to see what it ends up being.

Looks like Obama is going to survive Super Tuesday.  

The next few primaries really favor him.

by puma 2008-02-05 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Want to elaborate?

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

The rest of the February states either lean Obama or are, at worst, toss-ups right now.  Meaning, it's quite possible that he wins the next 4-5 states after this before we hit the second super tuesday.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Louisiana, Washington caucus, Wisconsin caucus

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Wisconsin has a primary, not a caucus.

by Tove 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
We need to see

what the actual delegate count will end being.

by puma 2008-02-05 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Obama made some serious inroads in the past week. I predict Hillary will take CA though.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Obama's team says its 606-534 Obama.

They cleaned up in the caucuses.

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Link?

by animated 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Ben Smith -- Politico.

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

No way; not with NJ, MO, TN, AR, the way they are.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-05 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

Hell, I dunno.  I just got back from work driving in a near blizzard (seriously, this is bad) and math was never a strong point.

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

And Jerome,

I dno't know about MO:

Look at St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Jackson and Boone County (Columbia).  That one's going to the wire.  Have they called it?

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Now for the delegate count.

No, they've not; it is looking closer.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-05 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

The guy raise 32 million in one month and now his supporters are "relieved" that he is going to survive. Gotta hand it to them, they sure know how to play the expecations game. Lou Holtz doesn't have anything on Obamanation!

by ND1979 2008-02-05 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Not to mention 4 years of nothing but positive press coverage ;)

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

After NH, there sure were a lot of Clinton supporters talking about how 2/5 would be the end of Obama.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-05 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I think we were mostly terrified about NV at that point.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

A week ago, Obama was ahead in the polls in 2 states. He has now won 7 to HRC's 6.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

it was more than a week ago....and obama had some of the most favorable press coverage ive ever seen in a campagin in this past 2-3 weeks alone.

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Also, huge night for Huckabee. If his lead in Missouri holds, he has to be considered the main competition to McCain regardless of who wins California.

by blueflorida 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Things are starting to turn in Obama's direction. California is going to be big.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Clinton will take it, I predict. So far Obama was been doing very well but not a blowout. Considering Clinton's past strength in the state and absentees she will take it.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I half wish we just did winner-take-all so this could just be over, but then again, we'd be in the same boat still...

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Latinos in the south west heavily divided. Does Cali have a similar Latino population as Arizona or NM?

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Probably in the less populated areas, but it's LA and the Bay that will decide CA.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:45PM | 0 recs
lieberfuck

talks.... like a repub

by kevin22262 2008-02-05 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

A lot of the Obama states are virtually unpopulated by Democrats. These are small population states to begin with (ND, ID), and very red. The number of Democrats in these states must be miniscule.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

His small state strategy was a smart holding play.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Missouri getting much closer.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

its been about 9-10% for the past hour..

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I did a quick calculation of the remaining counties, and it looks to be VERY close (like within 1-2% either way). That takes into account St. Louis, assuming Obama maintains his current margin in those counties, and if the smaller Clinton counties maintain the same margins.

It might looks slightly better for Hillary because there are a few smaller counties that have not reported at all, but it certainly could go either way.

by Hoyapaul 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I saw the same thing.  I would watch Boone County (Columbia), as well as Jackson County (I don't know which precincts have been where).

Local story:

The KS caucuses were apparently insane.  At one point, they stopped caucuses at at least one location in KC due to police advice and handed out ballots.  Big snow storm on the way and way over capacity at the venues to the point it violated fire codes.

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I wouldn't be happy right now if I were an Obama supporter, but I guess the actual Obama supporters look at it differently.

by Steve M 2008-02-05 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Really? Why? It looks possible he will actually win more states, and do quite well in the delegate count.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

He's been thumped in several states where he had hopes of being competitive.  It all comes down to CA, but I don't think the delegate numbers will look great for him when it all shakes out.

by Steve M 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Really? I see the delegate count being competitive, but we'll see. Either way, Obama winning more states than HRC is huge if that holds. Last week he was ahead in a grand total of two states.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I don't recall anyone seeing the state count as particularly important when Clinton was expected to win more states.

One day it's all a delegate race, the next day it's all about who wins in North Dakota and Delaware and Idaho.  Thing is, we're into the part of the campaign where it's results that count, not whether you outperform last week's expectations.

by Steve M 2008-02-05 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obviously, both matter. We don't have the delegate counts yet, but I suspect Obama will do quite well.

by animated 2008-02-05 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

as an obama supporter i was hoping to lose by less than 100 delegates, thats a good night in my mind (considering what was actually reasonable). If he can continue the movement of the past couple weeks its a good thing. Losing by over 200 delegates ends the primary.

by omar little 2008-02-05 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

If Hillary takes Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico and California, I don't see how it can be spun as a big Obama night?  He was supposed to have Obamamentum, and except for Connecticut that has not materialized.  The night's narrative obviously depends on California, but with Clinton probably taking Missouri and Arizona, she would end up with a lot of the biggies under her belt.  

by georgep 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obama will take NM. Arizona will be close

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Arizona is an interesting state.  The exit poll looks close but I'm not sure the results will reflect that, and it certainly should be a Clinton state.  MA, MO, NJ were all close in the exit polls.

by Steve M 2008-02-05 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I agree, but those are pretty big assumptions, no? It's looking like Clinton might get AZ, but I'd think NM would go for Obama (since it's a caucus) and MO is truly too close too call. God knows about Cali.

by Hoyapaul 2008-02-05 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

NM is a primary, isn't it?

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Actually, I guess you are right -- they CALL it a caucus, but it's primary-like...I'm not really sure what's going on there.

by Hoyapaul 2008-02-05 06:05PM | 0 recs
watch em

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I'm not an Obama supporter, but I think things are going pretty well for him.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I wouldn't be thrilled to be an Obama support either.  He might win the nomination, but it looks bleaker in the GE.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obama has showed strength in red states tonight. That's a GOOD sign for him in the GE.

by animated 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

It's fuzzy for Obama.  Sure, he took Minnesota and Illinois - big surprises.

Winning Kansas, Idaho, Utah, Georgia and Alabama don't necessary translate to GE wins in those states.

Not doing well in these more core liberal states or potential swing states is looking positive though

Clinton took TN and AR and looks to be doing well in MO, all of which swung to Bill in 1992.

I suppose you could say the same thing I said about Clinton winning in OK.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

This red state argument only holds in states with primaries... which red state PRIMARIES did he carry? Caucuses are small beer in an "electability" argument

by hctb 2008-02-05 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

??  The general is impossible to predict at this point.  

by rfahey22 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obama could win Missouri folks. Looking at his margins in St. Louis is scaring the shit out of me.

by ND1979 2008-02-05 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Yeah, I've been looking at that for a while. Missouri will go down to the wire.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

St. Louis or St. Louis County - St. Louis, the city, is only 800,000.  It'll be ok.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time
The NYTimes Margin of victory maps are helpful here.. still clinton takes it.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-gui de/2008/results/states/MO.html
by hctb 2008-02-05 06:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obama is racking up big margins in the caucus states. Is this because the campaign organized well, or because he advertised, or because Clinton pretty much ignored them?

The split between primary states and caucus states is pretty dramatic right now.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Smart strategy for him, because even if Clinton narrowly wins the popular vote in the big states, it looks like the state count will be pretty close -- in big part because of his big victories in the smaller caucus states.

by Hoyapaul 2008-02-05 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Look, I think this night is gonna be a split. Neither candidate is gonna have a "big" night. Although I do say it is amazing that Obama has tightend the lead in so many states in such a small amount of time.

by mecarr 2008-02-05 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

What, you thought he was going to lose it all along? We'll see how the delegates come out but if he had done worse than he has so far he would be toast.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 05:56PM | 0 recs
yeah, I thought he'd lose out

so it's a pleasant surprise

by Teaser 2008-02-05 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

It is amazing, it's really quite exciting. Hats off to the Obama camp for their strategy of pulling in a few extra states, as I think the Clinton camp is gonna have a solid delegate lead.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-05 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

with both  the entire msm and the liberal media licking his privates whilst savaging both hillary and bill?

stop being so full of it....

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Shhh. Cthulu is speaking. Nice of her to take the Obama speech visual - no Maddie Albright and the VIPs.  

In all seriousness, since it is halftime, how can a Democrat honestly support a candidate who has taken more money from the military industrial complex than any other candidate, and who has refused to recant her Iraq war vote. I just don't get it.

by craigk724 2008-02-05 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

maybe because iraq isn't the only issure democrats are voting on? also, if she said she regrets her vote, Republicans and the press would jump on it like kerry 04

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

I know it's not the only issue that's being voted on, but it seems like something that would be vital at this point, a cornerstone of Democratic principles. People have died. So many people. I just don't understand how someone could refuse to offer remorse and regret about a vote for the Iraq war. On top of that, she willfully lies about her understanding of what the vote meant.

Also, just watching this speech - she was at the children's defense organization for six months. In the real world that kind of resume puffery wouldn't get you the callback.

by craigk724 2008-02-05 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Can't y'all be civil with Clinton?  Blatant Obama haters give more respect to him than y'all do to her.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

How can an American hate our military? I just don't get that!

by ND1979 2008-02-05 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Regardless how California turns out, Obama wins a majority of the states, and states in every region of the country - that's huge!  Now, on to California . . .

by tomthroop 2008-02-05 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

if mo, nm, az, and ca all go to clinton, how does that logic hold up?

by werd2406 2008-02-05 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

NM, am not sure about that one at all.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-05 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

its likely to be the weakest of the chances, but its still a possibility...even regardless of nm, the point is still in play

by werd2406 2008-02-05 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Here's how:

Obama - AL / CT / DE / GA / ID / IL / KS / MN / ND / UT, and likely CO & AK = 12

Clinton -  AR / AZ / MA / MO / NJ / NY / OK / TN = 8

????? - CA / NM

by tomthroop 2008-02-05 06:04PM | 0 recs
on CBS, at sign off -

Trippi just said it was Hillary's night!

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorta feels like half-time

Obama grassroots message machine is pretty good. I just heard the Obama spin from the NPR reporter and realized it is what I have been reading from Obama supporters all night.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 06:00PM | 0 recs
Quite a lyrical speech by Hillary

Focused entirely on the Republicans, with the only nod to Obama being her emphasis on universal health care.

Not exactly a victory speech, but certainly a confident one.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 06:03PM | 0 recs

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