Sorta feels like half-time
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:30:34 PM EST
Open thread, time for a breather.
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:30:34 PM EST
Open thread, time for a breather.
I love it. Has there ever been greater egg on face?
I have said all along endorsements are nice they drive press, but in the end are meaningless.
To be fair, Obama won in Clinton's back yard of Connecticut. She should have won that state easily.
Is Ted Kennedy the senator from CT?
Democratic primary voters in Connecticut are VERY anti-establishment. She should have never been expected to win that.
They've been tied in CT since before Edwards dropped out.
CT is limousine liberal territory. Obama kills Clinton among the wealthiest whites.
But he was trailing her in CT by double digits only a week ago. This is a major coup for him. He also destroyed her in IL by 30 points and she only bested him by 15 in NY.
You do realize that exit polls show that Hillary won among democrats that have a favorable view of Lieberman, right? Sort of hurts your line of argument...
I'll look for the link, but it's true. I saw it before. 32% of Democrats viw Lieberman favorably. Hillary won those voters, which makes sense, b/c her base is the same as Lieberman's in the state. He won blue collar, lower-income democrats as well.
in ned lamont hippy-yuppie latte grande land? please!?
Don't be daft. The endorsements failed? You're a fool. Obama was at 22 before the endorsements. Where did he end up? If it's higher than 22, then they're endorsements helped.
Obama was also hurting nationally among whites and older voters. Looks like he's moving up there too.
You're also forgetting the fact that Kennedy brings an incredible fundraising network.
How has Obama's fundraising been lately relative to Clinton's? I rest my case.
Contested races tighten, we have two solid competitors. Even before his recent endorsements Obama was getting close to or beating Clinton. He would have closed the gap without the endorsements. Nice for the Kennedys though to get some of his glow, keeps the JFK flame lit.
money, yes,oh yes...
except for those on donor lists ,nobody gives an f about these kennedys no more.
Who would have thought a week ago?
ok well which is it...states or delegates that are important to the obama fans? it seems to keep switching with how the night goes.
He beat her by 30 in IL and she beat him by 15 in NY. He's doing very well tonight.
She took a number of those southern counties.. I will be interested to see the delegate allotment particularly IL 12, and IL 19.
Nobody has every accused Obamabots of being reality based and rational....
Doesn't really matter... he's got more states and more pledged delegates according to Politico - 606-534. Keep including those superdelegates though; oh and Michigan and Florida!
A side note - One of the networks should have split the reporting into two channels; the focus on the Republican primaries are so plodding.
Last week people were saying he was gonna win Illinois and Georgia and that's it. And he's won more states than Clinton so far.
I specifically remember Mydd saying that Obama was ONLY going to win 3 states and now it looks like he will end up winning more states than Clinton from the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.
we'll be getting results soon. Some people still at the polls, an hour and a half after they closed.
If Clinton wins Missouri, you might as well put a fork in the Kennedys, Kerry, Patrick, and McCaskill. They're done.
Define fork, please. Is there any evidence that politicians who support an eventual-losing candidate for a primary get swept out of office in the next election?
Werd: To Obama supporters, it is both. It just changes depending on who wins the states.
Watching Romney talk now...i just cant believe a word he says...it always sounds so scripted and fake.
Romney's wife looks like she wants to go home.
OH yes mitt...you're just like one of us...one of the working class. i know i too go to sleep on a bed made of $100 bills also.
It will be interesting to see what it ends up being.
Looks like Obama is going to survive Super Tuesday.
The next few primaries really favor him.
Want to elaborate?
The rest of the February states either lean Obama or are, at worst, toss-ups right now. Meaning, it's quite possible that he wins the next 4-5 states after this before we hit the second super tuesday.
Hawaii, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Louisiana, Washington caucus, Wisconsin caucus
Obama made some serious inroads in the past week. I predict Hillary will take CA though.
Obama's team says its 606-534 Obama.
They cleaned up in the caucuses.
No way; not with NJ, MO, TN, AR, the way they are.
Hell, I dunno. I just got back from work driving in a near blizzard (seriously, this is bad) and math was never a strong point.
The guy raise 32 million in one month and now his supporters are "relieved" that he is going to survive. Gotta hand it to them, they sure know how to play the expecations game. Lou Holtz doesn't have anything on Obamanation!
Not to mention 4 years of nothing but positive press coverage ;)
After NH, there sure were a lot of Clinton supporters talking about how 2/5 would be the end of Obama.
A week ago, Obama was ahead in the polls in 2 states. He has now won 7 to HRC's 6.
it was more than a week ago....and obama had some of the most favorable press coverage ive ever seen in a campagin in this past 2-3 weeks alone.
Also, huge night for Huckabee. If his lead in Missouri holds, he has to be considered the main competition to McCain regardless of who wins California.
Things are starting to turn in Obama's direction. California is going to be big.
Clinton will take it, I predict. So far Obama was been doing very well but not a blowout. Considering Clinton's past strength in the state and absentees she will take it.
I half wish we just did winner-take-all so this could just be over, but then again, we'd be in the same boat still...
Latinos in the south west heavily divided. Does Cali have a similar Latino population as Arizona or NM?
Probably in the less populated areas, but it's LA and the Bay that will decide CA.
A lot of the Obama states are virtually unpopulated by Democrats. These are small population states to begin with (ND, ID), and very red. The number of Democrats in these states must be miniscule.
Missouri getting much closer.
its been about 9-10% for the past hour..
I did a quick calculation of the remaining counties, and it looks to be VERY close (like within 1-2% either way). That takes into account St. Louis, assuming Obama maintains his current margin in those counties, and if the smaller Clinton counties maintain the same margins.
It might looks slightly better for Hillary because there are a few smaller counties that have not reported at all, but it certainly could go either way.
I saw the same thing. I would watch Boone County (Columbia), as well as Jackson County (I don't know which precincts have been where).
The KS caucuses were apparently insane. At one point, they stopped caucuses at at least one location in KC due to police advice and handed out ballots. Big snow storm on the way and way over capacity at the venues to the point it violated fire codes.
I wouldn't be happy right now if I were an Obama supporter, but I guess the actual Obama supporters look at it differently.
Really? Why? It looks possible he will actually win more states, and do quite well in the delegate count.
He's been thumped in several states where he had hopes of being competitive. It all comes down to CA, but I don't think the delegate numbers will look great for him when it all shakes out.
Really? I see the delegate count being competitive, but we'll see. Either way, Obama winning more states than HRC is huge if that holds. Last week he was ahead in a grand total of two states.
I don't recall anyone seeing the state count as particularly important when Clinton was expected to win more states.
One day it's all a delegate race, the next day it's all about who wins in North Dakota and Delaware and Idaho. Thing is, we're into the part of the campaign where it's results that count, not whether you outperform last week's expectations.
Obviously, both matter. We don't have the delegate counts yet, but I suspect Obama will do quite well.
as an obama supporter i was hoping to lose by less than 100 delegates, thats a good night in my mind (considering what was actually reasonable). If he can continue the movement of the past couple weeks its a good thing. Losing by over 200 delegates ends the primary.
If Hillary takes Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico and California, I don't see how it can be spun as a big Obama night? He was supposed to have Obamamentum, and except for Connecticut that has not materialized. The night's narrative obviously depends on California, but with Clinton probably taking Missouri and Arizona, she would end up with a lot of the biggies under her belt.
Arizona is an interesting state. The exit poll looks close but I'm not sure the results will reflect that, and it certainly should be a Clinton state. MA, MO, NJ were all close in the exit polls.
I agree, but those are pretty big assumptions, no? It's looking like Clinton might get AZ, but I'd think NM would go for Obama (since it's a caucus) and MO is truly too close too call. God knows about Cali.
I'm not an Obama supporter, but I think things are going pretty well for him.
I wouldn't be thrilled to be an Obama support either. He might win the nomination, but it looks bleaker in the GE.
Obama has showed strength in red states tonight. That's a GOOD sign for him in the GE.
It's fuzzy for Obama. Sure, he took Minnesota and Illinois - big surprises.
Winning Kansas, Idaho, Utah, Georgia and Alabama don't necessary translate to GE wins in those states.
Not doing well in these more core liberal states or potential swing states is looking positive though
Clinton took TN and AR and looks to be doing well in MO, all of which swung to Bill in 1992.
I suppose you could say the same thing I said about Clinton winning in OK.
This red state argument only holds in states with primaries... which red state PRIMARIES did he carry? Caucuses are small beer in an "electability" argument
Obama could win Missouri folks. Looking at his margins in St. Louis is scaring the shit out of me.
Yeah, I've been looking at that for a while. Missouri will go down to the wire.
St. Louis or St. Louis County - St. Louis, the city, is only 800,000. It'll be ok.
Obama is racking up big margins in the caucus states. Is this because the campaign organized well, or because he advertised, or because Clinton pretty much ignored them?
The split between primary states and caucus states is pretty dramatic right now.
Smart strategy for him, because even if Clinton narrowly wins the popular vote in the big states, it looks like the state count will be pretty close -- in big part because of his big victories in the smaller caucus states.
Look, I think this night is gonna be a split. Neither candidate is gonna have a "big" night. Although I do say it is amazing that Obama has tightend the lead in so many states in such a small amount of time.
What, you thought he was going to lose it all along? We'll see how the delegates come out but if he had done worse than he has so far he would be toast.
It is amazing, it's really quite exciting. Hats off to the Obama camp for their strategy of pulling in a few extra states, as I think the Clinton camp is gonna have a solid delegate lead.
with both the entire msm and the liberal media licking his privates whilst savaging both hillary and bill?
stop being so full of it....
Shhh. Cthulu is speaking. Nice of her to take the Obama speech visual - no Maddie Albright and the VIPs.
In all seriousness, since it is halftime, how can a Democrat honestly support a candidate who has taken more money from the military industrial complex than any other candidate, and who has refused to recant her Iraq war vote. I just don't get it.
maybe because iraq isn't the only issure democrats are voting on? also, if she said she regrets her vote, Republicans and the press would jump on it like kerry 04
I know it's not the only issue that's being voted on, but it seems like something that would be vital at this point, a cornerstone of Democratic principles. People have died. So many people. I just don't understand how someone could refuse to offer remorse and regret about a vote for the Iraq war. On top of that, she willfully lies about her understanding of what the vote meant.
Also, just watching this speech - she was at the children's defense organization for six months. In the real world that kind of resume puffery wouldn't get you the callback.
Can't y'all be civil with Clinton? Blatant Obama haters give more respect to him than y'all do to her.
How can an American hate our military? I just don't get that!
Regardless how California turns out, Obama wins a majority of the states, and states in every region of the country - that's huge! Now, on to California . . .
if mo, nm, az, and ca all go to clinton, how does that logic hold up?
NM, am not sure about that one at all.
its likely to be the weakest of the chances, but its still a possibility...even regardless of nm, the point is still in play
Obama - AL / CT / DE / GA / ID / IL / KS / MN / ND / UT, and likely CO & AK = 12
Clinton - AR / AZ / MA / MO / NJ / NY / OK / TN = 8
????? - CA / NM
Obama grassroots message machine is pretty good. I just heard the Obama spin from the NPR reporter and realized it is what I have been reading from Obama supporters all night.
Focused entirely on the Republicans, with the only nod to Obama being her emphasis on universal health care.
Not exactly a victory speech, but certainly a confident one.