we will see

With so many other structural factors (the economy, Iraq, midterms) breaking in the Democrats' direction this year, what is the one thing that could throw a wrench into the whole thing?

Answer:  Having our two best candidates in 40 years spend hundreds of millions of dollars going after each other, while the Republicans coalesce behind a war hero candidate who can plausibly run away from Bush, allowing him to emerge in the summer with double digit leads over both Democrats.

I think the only way to prevent that from happening, and to prevent mutual assured destruction on the Democratic side, is for Obama (assuming he winds up tonight with a delegate deficit) to put his country and his party above himself, swallow his pride, and agree soon to take the VP post.

A protracted fight for the Democratic nomination is the best chance the Republicans have of sneaking back in in November.

I think that either one or all of the following could swing in Obama's direction: DE, AL, AK, MO, and CT. I'm hopeful, anyway.

I'm less optimistic about CA. Obama may make it close, but Clinton's long-held advantage will be reflected in the early voting. Any late surge by Obama will not be enough to overcome that. If he can stay close on the delegate count in CA, then I would consider that a victory of sorts.

I think Jerome's piece is sort of the reverse of Pablano's over at Kos - it's the best plausible scenario for Clinton tonight (since it has all of the "battleground" states breaking her way). There really is no way to know.

And I'm very skeptical that you'd see a Clinton/Obama ticket.

The scenario outlined in this post is really the best case scenario for Clinton. I don't see her getting a 100+ delegate lead after tonight. I think it'll be closer. I would definitely not be surprised to see Clinton win the popular vote in some states but Obama getting more delegates in those states.

I really don't think either HRC or Obama makes a lot of sense as a VP.  I get that it's about bringing the big winners together in a peaceful way, but I think the 2 candidates have competing profiles that would only serve to muddle the message at the top of the ticket.  

If Obama is the nominee, he's better off taking somebody like Webb or Sebelius (someone a little unorthodox and change-oriented) while HRC should take someone like Richardson or Clark, which highlights her commitment to experience.

I will give Clinton AZ, AR, CA, CT, MA, MN, MO, NJ, NM, NY, OK, and TN.

Obama gets AL, AK, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, ND, and UT.

I offer these predictions not because I think I know anything, but simply because it seems cowardly not to stick my neck out.

I think Clinton will win these 11 states today: AZ, AR, CA, DE, MA, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OK, TN

Although Obama has all the momentum in CA, I pick Clinton to hang on (barely) there. I was persuaded by silver spring's diary that most of the polls understate the percentage of women voters:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

I think Obama will win these 11 states today: AL, AK, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, UT

A friend in Alabama e-mailed me a couple of weeks ago. He is fairly well-informed normally, and he told me he was supporting Obama because he hadn't heard any reason not to.

This is a big problem for Clinton right now. Everyone has heard the reasons not to support her, but most people have not heard any reason not to support Obama.

I've also got Obama winning America Samoa and Americans living abroad, for what that's worth.

The only thing I saw from Utah seemed to suggest Obama would win there comfortably. I also think it's hard to imagine Obama not winning at least one tossup state.  The polls are so close with so many undecideds and 13 states letting independents votes that I'm sure Obama will overperform in some states.  He'll also likely underperform in others.  Given the number of states and the likelyhood of variance, I think that's why many people making predictions are putting numbers, like Kos, so they can at least say when they think it will be close, or are leaving tossups, like Ambinder.

If she's our nominee, I'd vote for Hillary, but I wouldn't be too excited about volunteering for her.  I had the privilege of seeing her in person twice here in Iowa, and I was none too impressed.  It's about the courts, I guess.  *Sigh

Oh, and there's Nader, too... and Bloomberg.  Sigh*

I pray that Obama can pull this thing off.

These were my predictions yesterday, and while Obama may do better I don't know what to switch.  So I am ready to wear my egg proudly.

Clinton:
AK, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, KS, MA, ND, NJ, NY, OK, TN UT

Obama:
AL, GA, ID, IL, MN, MO, NM

I think states will run very close and Obama is better positioned to pick up many delegates, so Clinton nets 35 delegates today.

States:

Too close to call (i.e. split pop vote and delegate):  CA, CT

Clinton:  NY, NJ, MA, TN, AZ, AL, AR, OK,  AK

Obama: IL, GA, MN, DE, MO, CO, KS, ID, ND, NM, UT

Can't wait to watch Jerome eat it tonight.

Warning my ass.

Obama will have to attack.  He and his wife have already been pretty "sharp" in their message leading up to Feb 5.  If he comes out trailing he has to go on the attack for real.  Axelrod and Gibbs will be happy to do so.

I doubt the Clinton's will just sit back and take it.  

It is just the opposite, if Clinton loses today (all she has to do to lose is lose California in my mind) and she has to go on the attack and destroy Obama to have any chance.

But if Clinton wins today I think they will stick with their recent tone, hit the issues, and try to go from there.  But the Obama can't I don't think could allow that happen.   Clinton would just play out the game and win.

I wish everyone would stop bemoaning a longer primary between clinton and obama.  i think that would be great for us.  let mccain sit on the sidelines while the news focuses on our two very popular candidates.  either one will outraise mccain by a bajillion dollars anyway so the cost of an ongoing primary doesn't hurt us either.

I think the primary storyline if the race stays close will be who won more amongst the following states

NJ, CT, MA, MO, AZ, NM and obviously CA. If someone can carry all of them they can claim some momentum if it is split then the one who carries CA has the bragging rights.

For MSM if it is close Obama is the BIG Winner. Eugene Robinson will be the first to say if 6 months ago i said a man named "Hussein" could be the Democratic nominee you would have laughed me out of the building!

You have Hillary winning in states like New Mexico and Alaska and Utah where he is ahead...I mean, I know that Bill Clinton was talking about Fairy Tales and all, but is this objective.  From where are you getting this.  Or is this just your Christmas List?    Here is my list ( because at this point I am not sure else I have to lose).  Let's see who is actually closer.  And also by the way, I notice that your lack or really addressing the actual delegate count is further indicative of how clueless you really are.  I say Obama wins in delagates from 25-35 delagtes total?  Put up or shut up...

Obama:  AL, CA, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, NM, UT, AK

Clinton: AZ, AR, MA, MO, NJ, NY, OK, TN

But this entire conversation is moot because of proportional representation...you KNOW that...so what is your point?

to be on Clinton's ticket.  He will probably decline if he is smart.

right now the delegate count is

Obama 63
HRC   48

I think if Obama is down by 150 or less at the end of the nite ..he is still alive and kicking.

If, as Jerome suggests that she pulls out to a 250+ lead tonite which would be a 265 delegate swing for HRC tonite which would be big trouble for Obama.

So, Jerome could be right..it is close out there and HRC could sweep most states and get that 265+ delegate flip.. lets hope he does better.

(in order of certainty for each candidate, like in ESPN's bowl predictions contests):

Clinton: NY, AR, OK, TN, NM, AZ, MA, NJ, CT, MO, CA

Obama: IL, GA, ID, UT, AK, KS, CO, ND, AL, MN, DE

The media will drop its horserace metaphor and pick up a boxing one, calling Super Tuesday a "Main Event Showdown that ends in a split decision." However, they may show a coastal bias and make a big deal about California, which will be a very close contest  in which Clinton emerges with momentum as the popular vote winner but not with much of an edge in the delegate count.

Overall, for the day, I say Clinton emerges with a margin of +50 pledged delegates.

Obama---CA, GA, IL, AL, CT, KS, MN, UT, ND, CO, ID, AK, DE

Clinton---NY, NJ, MA, MO, NM, AZ, OK, AR, TN

Narrow delegate advantage to Obama (around 50)

I'll throw my prediction:

Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, TN, AZ, CT, AR, OK, DE

Obama: IL, GA, MN, CO, KS, ID, ND, MO, UT, AK, NM, AL

I think Cali, Alabama, MN, CO, MO, DE, CT and AZ will all be within 5 points.  NJ, DE, NM and in an surprise, MA will be within 10 points.

Hillary leaves the night with a 100 pledged delegate lead.

Obama will clean up in Alaska.

Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MO, AZ, CT, AR, OK, NM, DE, UT

Obama: IL, GA, MN, CO, KS, ID, ND, AK, TN, MA, AL

No way. She would never agree to it and it wouldn't make any sense. He will never agree to it because 1) he would be ignored 2) I really believe they dislike each other and 3) would be a bit hypocritical.

It's hard to be nonbiased since I hope Obama wins, but here goes...

Obama:AL,CT,GA,IL,ND,AK,CO,ID,KS,MN,NJ,U T
Clinton: AZ,CA,MA,MO,NM,TN,AR,DE,NY,OK

American's abroad and Samoa I'm going with Obama.

I only picked NJ for Obama since I'm from NJ and the nonscientific poll I did of the 3 voting members of my family shows Obama with a 100% lead, which sounds pretty insurmountable to me.

You really think Clinton's going to take Utah and Alaska?

Alaska maybe, but the only poll out in Utah has Obama up by like 20 or 30 points.

This should be fun:

Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, MO, TN, AZ, CT, AL, AR, OK, NM, MN, DE, CO, UT

Obama: IL, GA, KS, ID, ND, AK

I'm going to really go out on a limb:

Obama IL,GA,ID and ND

And Clinton getting +200

Basically I see a mini NH repeat

Obama:  AL, CA, CO, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, ND--Alaska is a tossup.

HIllary gets the rest.

Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, MO, TN, AZ, CT, AL, AR, OK, NM, DE,

Obama: IL, GA, MN, CO, KS, ID, ND, UT, AK

I think a lot of these states are going to nailbiters though. The only 20+ point blowouts I expect are NY, OK, and AR for Clinton, and IL and GA for Obama.

I believe Obama has an excellent chance of taking NJ tonight. I voted for him, after switching from Edwards when he dropped out of the race. My best friend texted me today to let me know he had also voted for Obama, after being undecided and leaning Clinton as late as last night. He decided for Obama because of the perception that Obama will be McCain and Hillary will not. I agree. Turnout was heavy in my precinct today, and I voted around 4:00 p.m. before the evening rush to vote before the polls close at 8:00.

Everytime I see NJ in the Clinton column, I laugh because I have spoken to only one person who decided late to vote for her. I think a surprise may be in the offing here. Will make for an interesting evening, I think.

Obama gets Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, North Dakota, Utah,

Clinton gets Arkansas, Arizona, California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee,

which would be 11 to 11 in states.  Delegates I'd guess a slight Clinton advantage given the bigger size of her states although she will only win a couple barely including California.

I canvased all weekend and today in Atlanta, Georgia by the way.  I wish I had some insight, but I don't.  The african americans are incredibly charged here, but who knows.

That's a bit too optimistic for Clinton. Seeing the recent CNN exit poll, I would say Obama has the edge.