California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

by Jonathan Singer, Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:33:41 AM EST

Three new polls out of California, and three different results:

	Field Poll (.pdf)	Mason-Dixon	Zogby
Clinton	36	45	41
Obama	34	36	45

From this mess of numbers, one thing stands out: Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama has put California away. For a period in time so close to election day, the proportion of Democratic voters remaining undecided -- or at least telling pollsters that they are undecided -- is rather remarkable. This is a very fluid race in California, as it seems to be across the country. While we might have had some inklings as to what was going to happen in the first four contests (even if those inklings proved ultimately to be incorrect), it's hard, at least for me, to come to the conclusion that either candidate is genuinely a frontrunner going into Tuesday, either around the country or specifically in California.

Tags: California, California primary, Democratic primaries (all tags)

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A fourth.

Rasmussen:
Obama 45, Clinton 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary

by Ramo 2008-02-03 09:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Gobama!

by mecarr 2008-02-03 09:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

The force is with Obama. People beginning to show their adversity toward another eight years of Bill Clinton and company, and of course, Hillary.

And they are beginning as well to look at the legacy of the first Clinton administration and realizing it was nothing more than a continuation of Republican politics. That's what happens when your genius is stealing the opponent's positions: you become like them.

by shergald 2008-02-03 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

I would be anticipating what your reaction would be when actual votes are counted.

by lori 2008-02-03 10:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Do any of these California polls take into account the early voting?

by mecarr 2008-02-03 09:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

They all claim to. How effective they are is a separate question. I guess someone who has already voted is technically a "likely voter."

by Drummond 2008-02-03 10:14AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

yeah but according to the field poll Obama leads by 1 (32 to 31) amongst early mail in voters. not what I expected: http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/sub scribers/Rls2264.pdf

from the article: http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html

"For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton--hardly decisive at all."

by rapcetera 2008-02-03 10:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Interesting. I always heard Hillary had like a 25% advantage among those who voted earlier. However, I heard this several weeks ago. Perhaps those who have voted since then have voted for Obama by a wide margin.

by mecarr 2008-02-03 12:17PM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Yes they do.

by Jr1886 2008-02-03 09:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Yes, they do, and according to the Field Poll analysis by Frank Russo, the early voting has Obama up 1:
"Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton--hardly decisive at all."

http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html

by along 2008-02-03 09:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Her campaign is worried. Check out the LA Times political blog -- big time, unidentified push polling robocalls.

Unlike the anti-Edwards robocalls, this one doesn't identify a candidate.

by ChrisR 2008-02-03 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Because of the way the democratic party distributes the delegates by district, do we even know what these polls mean anyway?

by AnnC 2008-02-03 09:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

You're right, and in fact, it really doesn't matter on Tuesday what states a candidate "wins." That matters for the other primaries where there's only one or two states on a given date, but on Tuesday it's delegates which count.

by Drummond 2008-02-03 10:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

You're right that it doesn't matter in terms of delegates--which is the real battle. But winning CA would matter in terms of perception and the spin that grows out of Super Tuesday. And we all know that narrative and spin can play a significant role in determining who has momentum and the power to win future primaries.

by jmaki 2008-02-03 10:49AM | 0 recs

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Early Voting

I think the Obama campaign is in a bit of a bind when it comes to spinning California. Even if he does really well on Tuesday, I don't think he'll manage to win the state overall because of early voting. But with all the emphasis on "This is a delegate race now," it's hard to point to polls saying that you "won" the state on Super Tuesday if you lose the overall delegate count.

If anything, they'll comment on momentum ("We came back from 20 points behind...") and then play up their other victories more than California. I think that's a big reason why Obama himself has stayed away from California lately. There's no way he can win the state in the frame he's been pushing (delegate race), so he doesn't want to look like he was working hard to win it. Expect lots of spin like "We won across the country, from Georgia to Colorado" and very little about California.

Clinton, meanwhile, gets to have a magnified delegate count from early voting, even if she loses the vote on Feb. 5. She gets a media momentum boost she might not actually deserve.

Now, if Obama manages to actually win the delegate count, in spite of early voting, that'll be an amazing accomplishment!

by Fitzy 2008-02-03 09:49AM | 0 recs

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Huh

I just saw the comments above saying that Obama and Clinton are even in early voting. I guess that means everything I just said was wrong.

Eh, such is life.

by Fitzy 2008-02-03 09:50AM | 0 recs

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Re: Huh

other polls last week reported higher mail voting numbers for Clinton. And they could have been correct--a snapshot of ballots cast up to that time.

The Field Poll was conducted over seven days, "between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1." So it allows for even more late mail voting, which could certainly be trending Obama.

by along 2008-02-03 09:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Huh

a lot more great early voting info from The Field, my new favorite blog:
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=428

by along 2008-02-03 10:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: Huh

Obviously the early voting tends to be done by those who feel strongly enough to pay attention early. That selects for the stronger supporters of both candidates.

The only issue is whether whether they can filter out early Edwards voters.

by Drummond 2008-02-03 10:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Hillary will win California by at least 10--follow the real people model in Florida, not what the MSM is desperately trying to do on behalf of Obama.

Over half have already voted--if she was leading in those polls by twenty to thirty points then, there is no way Obama can match her with new voters.

This is a last gasp of media pro-Obama spin. Go by the national numbers--all have her ahead, some more so than others, and several by double digits. California will reflect that reality.

by lambros 2008-02-03 10:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Obama has actually outperformed all of the polls so far except in New Hampshire.

by Drummond 2008-02-03 10:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Dear Lambros,

You are missing something. There is actual campaigning going on in California. Florida was name recognition only. Hillary enjoys a massive advantage in that area, in case you don't know.

Unless you have real information, it's better to just read the comments.

I have no idea who will win CA on Tuesday and you don't either.

Best of luck to your candidate on Tuesday.

by cswartout 2008-02-03 10:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Did you just say FL and REAL????? A state where nobody campaigned in? LOL.....

by Chavez100 2008-02-03 10:55AM | 0 recs

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Latinos Ignored Again

Remember Vegas? Nobody was talking too much about Latinos then and they turned in droves for Clinton.

Obama hype ends Tuesday.

by padcrasher 2008-02-03 10:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Latinos Ignored Again

just like all the young white people who aren't supposed to vote and vote for a black man.....ouch SC was a wake up call eh?

by Chavez100 2008-02-03 10:56AM | 0 recs

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Not sure. . .

. . . what you mean by this. According to CNN's exit poll data for South Carolina, Non-Black (CNN's terminology) young people (ages 18 to 29) made up only 5% of the total electorate in the Democratic primary. These voters split 52% for Obama, 27% for Hillary, and 21% for Edwards.

So, I don't think there was any great turn out of "the young white people" in South Carolina. And those that did vote, while providing Obama's only majority among Non-Blacks, did not vote overwhelmingly for him, nor did they have any meaningful impact on the election. In fact, since Obama won 55% of the total vote, and only 52% of the young Non-Black voters, he actually would have won by a higher percentage if they hadn't voted at all.

Again, I may be misinterpreting you. Where do you see an "ouch" or a "wake up call" with regards to young white voters in South Carolina?

by freemansfarm 2008-02-03 11:21AM | 0 recs

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If Hillary looses CA its over

I doubt Hillary can bounce back from a loss in CA. Obama has all the reporters and pundits in his pocket so the MEDIA spin will be if you cannot win CA how can you win in the General. I will tend to agree to even James C agrees.

BTW my gut being in CA is it will be close but it will go to HRC by a couple of points.

by bayareasg 2008-02-03 10:23AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

I'll make the call. Obama wins California by a small margin. Why? The last two weeks has been momentum filled for Obama, that means more absentee voters for him. Two, new voters favor Obama as we have seen in the past and according recent press releases, there has been a huge number of new voter registrations.

Will he win more delegates than Clinton? Possibly. Will it mean the end of the Clinton campaign possibly.

by RJEvans 2008-02-03 10:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

And a fifth poll:

ARG (Feb. 1-2
Clinton: 47
Obama: 39

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ cadem8-704.html

by markjay 2008-02-03 10:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Why are we still posting numbers from ARG?

by RJEvans 2008-02-03 10:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

maybe because they have been as accurate as the rasmussen and mason dixon polls have been through this election cycle.

So if the numbers from these outfits can be posted considering the track record in the early states , i say why not post ARG polls

by lori 2008-02-03 10:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Rasmussen and Zogby has been way more accurate than ARG. Come on.

by RJEvans 2008-02-03 11:01AM | 0 recs

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Zogby. . .

. . .is a joke. He is rated last among the polls as judged by the pollsters themselves.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-03 11:26AM | 0 recs

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A sixth

Rassmussen,
Obama 45, Clinton 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary

Maybe ARG will get lucky and be within the MOE for once. They are 0 for 5 thus far.

by fladem 2008-02-03 11:04AM | 0 recs

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Not a Sixth

That poll has already posted in this diary.

by Tove 2008-02-03 11:17AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

I have to second that. There are so many blogs talking about California being too close to call today...but making calls for Obama yesterday I definitely found a lot of people that had unfortunately voted EARLY for Hillary. So even if Obama pulls in the same vote as Hillary on election day, Hillary would probably still take the state....

Of course, nonetheless the delegate count will be close...but it's a big media story...

by scottforamerica 2008-02-03 10:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

First- early voting may save Hillary.

Second-- ignoring early voting, anyone who hasn't yet made up their mind will likely go with Obama.

by jgkojak 2008-02-03 10:51AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Pollsters are not that stupid. They have taken into account early voting.

by RJEvans 2008-02-03 10:54AM | 0 recs

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I believe some polls

but not ones that don't make sense
like

36 34

No way that many undecided.

I don't believe zogby either.

JUST SO PEOLE KNOW, it's not just anti-hillary,

IA has Hillary up 20 in tenn.
I don't believe it
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/sundayTNDem.html

I'm using common sense + other polls + history

by yellowdem1129 2008-02-03 10:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: I believe some polls

Yeah, the Field Poll numbers are too depressed to be seen as anything approaching accurate this close to voting day! Both candidates in the mid 30s. I guess the other voters are too sleepy to make up their minds....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-03 01:52PM | 0 recs

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Feild Poll

I don't know anything about the Field poll but frequently local polls are more accurate than out of state polls. Field is from California.

by del 2008-02-03 02:06PM | 0 recs

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McClatchy poll. . .

. . .today has Clinton leading in California 45% to 36%.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-03 11:30AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

People who make up their minds the last day have broken for Clinton in every contest so far, a lot of undecideds will vote for Hillary in the booth

by rossinatl 2008-02-03 11:41AM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

Don't forget that California is an open primary which could help obama. I say it is an open primary becuase I heard a guest on ABC's This Week mention it. I have not verified it though.

by mecarr 2008-02-03 12:21PM | 0 recs

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Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

It is a "semi-open" primary. Voters with no party affiliation may ask for a Democratic ballot when they go in to vote -- but it is not supposed to be offered to them. (The Republicans don't allow this).

The California Democratic Party has been using a publicity and direct mail campaign to let unaffiliated voters know about this.

About 20% of California voters are DTS ("decline to state") in party registration. So it probably does help Obama.

by lifelongdem 2008-02-03 01:58PM | 0 recs

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semi open really helps Obama

Think about this, usually the open primaries split the indies with McCain. Not this time, Obama will get a big push since none of the indie will go to McCain.

by del 2008-02-03 02:09PM | 0 recs

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i might have to start attacking

obama again.

Every poll with a 2/2 field day in it has the race for Obama by a small amount.

I think with the early votes and the gotv Hillary should stil win, but we need to get the MOmemtum.

I'll hold my powder dry for now.

by yellowdem1129 2008-02-03 01:17PM | 0 recs