Or, is it a picture of Obama dressed in ethnic garb?

Seriously, did the Clinton campaign leak that picture?

A couple of other caveats:

Saturday's bitter scolding
Sunday's silly mocking
Monday's hamfisted oppo.
Tuesday's debate

It's 'cos Ohians are notoriously stubborn... We are more than willing to but off our nose to spite our face!  We've done it many times before... Voting against the Thrid Frontier initiative is one that I remember with pain... that could have really helped this economy...  but...

I think there are a few other factors in play here...

While NAFTA destroyed Ohio, the effect was delayed.  The late 90's were the last "good times" this state has enjoyed, and I think that they remember the Bill Clinton era with fondness, 'cos since then, the state's been a complete wreck.

The state is notoriously conservative... The Republican party should have been wiped out by the scandals over the past few years, but they are still quite strong here.  Hillary is considered to be the more "conservative" of the candidates (although I disagree on that), so she gets the nod...

Ohio still has a lot of racial issues.  Cleveland, for example, is the most racially segregated city  in the country.  It is not uncommon for even educated, cultural people to make off the cuff, openly racist remarks and not think twice about it.  Unfortunately, I think that is a factor here as well.

Since when is dropping 10 points in roughly two weeks 'holding steady?'

Dropping ten points in a week is not steady... you rarely see such a drop in campaigns.

Meh.  I'll await the new SurveyUSA poll out of Ohio.  Still, Clinton has to do much better than 10 points if she wants to put a dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead.

Hillary supporters have been crying "race baiting" ever since the South Carolina flap over Bill Clinton's MLK comments.  The leak of the picture of Obama in African garb is clearly a race-baiting move, and the Clinton team isn't even denying they leaked it.

All's fair in politics, I guess, but the Clinton crybabies can all go ahead and get down off their high horses now.

There are some strange crosstabs in the University of Cincinnati poll.  One is the obvious one that Todd mentions with the Edwards 9% number.  Everything we've seen since February 5th has had Edwards getting between 1% and 2%.  If you look at the crosstabs, the vast majority of Edwards support is from the over 50 age group.  Looking soley at that, it seems that Hillary would get the majority of that support.  One the other hand, the African American split is 75-25, whereas the split recently has been more like 80-20 or 90-10 so this seems to be understating Obama's support.  Also, what's curious is the split with the 18-29 year olds.  They have it tied at 49% - 49%.  Again, that seems to underestimate Obama's support.

All in all, it looks to be a comfortable, albeit not sizable, lead for Clinton and it seems to slowly going in Obama's direction.  I'm sure with these numbers that the Clinton campaign wishes the primary was tomorrow rather than a week from tomorrow.

Hillary drops 10% in one week and that is good news for Clinton? My god! The Clinton campaign leaking the photo of OBama in a Muslim costume is even below fox news' standards of decency.

"Farrakhan hearts Obama:

Nation of Islam Minister Louis Farrakhan set Barack Obama up for a Sister Souljah Moment on Sunday.

While Farrakhan didn"t endorse Obama, he spent most of his almost two-hour Saviors" Day celebration speech praising him.

"This young man is the hope of the entire world that America will change and be made better," said the 74-year-old Farrakhan. "This young man is capturing audiences of black and brown and red and yellow. If you look at Barack Obama"s audiences and look at the effect of his words, those people are being transformed."

Farrakhan pointed out that the Nation of Islam"s founder, Fard Muhammad, also had a white mother and black father. "A black man with a white mother became a savior to us. A black man with a white mother could turn out to be one who can lift America from her fall."

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/share d-blogs/ajc/thinkingright/index.html

Um, I think I will stick with Clinton.

Nice attempt at spin.

Hillary looses half her lead in Ohio in about a week and you are saying it looks good for her?

Early voting in Texas looks like a tidal wave for Obama.

Last Thursday it was, "I am honored to be on this stage with Barack Obama."

Saturday was, "shame on you Barack Obama."

Sunday it was, "let's mock not only Obama but all of his supporters."

We are watching the death throws of Clintonism.  Tactical maneuvering taken to such an extreme it looks like she is bi-polar and off her meds.

I was hoping she would summon the courage to go out with grace and style.  Instead she will go out with nastiness, tactical maneuvering, and a death grip on her own ambition.

So funny: A tale of two websites:

DailyKos headline for post about the same two polls:

"Polls: Race Tightening in Ohio"

MyDD headline for the exact same polls:

"Hillary Clinton Holding Steady in Ohio"

For myself, it's hard for me to see losing half of your lead in two weeks as "holding steady" but maybe that's just me.

you are still in the denial stage, Hillary has already moved on to anger judging by her weekend tirades. Obama has narrowed the gap by 10 points in Ohio. It's hard to see how this is "good" news for Clinton, especially when you consider that Obama outperformed the polls in WI by a wide margin.

Next steps: bargaining, depression, acceptance.

Todd, Clinton lost about 1 point per day in the Q poll. As several commenters have noted, there's nothing steady about that.

"A 10% or so win next Tuesday would be considered decisive for Hillary Clinton and would fuel her claim to a mandate to continue her campaign."

No, it wouldn't necessarily. Not if Clinton loses Texas.

using what kind of math?

"Holding steady." That's a laugh. The Clinton folks who believe winning Ohio by a few points is enough are deluding themselves. Even if she continues to "hold steady" and wins Ohio by eight points she'll pick up 15 delegates at most. That will reduce Obama's committed delegate lead to about 140. And it certainly won't make up for the blowout Obama's going to administer in Texas.

Folks...one thing to keep in mind here.  While a "win" of ANY kind is preferrable for the HRC campaign, the FACT is that a simple 10 point win is not enough.

If she fails to blow Obama out by more than 25 points (gove or take), she STILL is well behind Barack in pledged delgates.  Without hte landslides, she cant catch up.

The HRC camp knows this of course which is why they are throwing everything at him including it seems the photo.

I beleive that this stuff may have more to do with making sure she can raise the 5 million she needs to pay herself back than it does "winning".

Todd Beeton's fair and balance title: "Hillary Clinton Holding Steady in Ohio"

the link to the actual Quinniac poll, which to his credit he provides: "February 25, 2008 - Obama Gains On Clinton In Ohio Dem Primary Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Poll Finds; College-Educated Voters In Big Shift To Obama"

Quinnipac own analysis of their poll:

Buoyed by a big shift among college-educated voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is gaining on New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads 51 - 40 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Clinton lead in a February 14 likely voter poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. College-educated voters back Sen. Obama 58 - 33 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Clinton lead with these voters February 14.

On the eve of the only televised debate between the two Democratic contenders in Ohio and just one week before the crucial March 4 primary, Sen. Clinton's large margins among women, 53 - 36 percent; older voters, whites and those without a college education keep her out front.

"Sen. Clinton's lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A week is an awful long time in politics to be playing defense, but one thing going in her favor is that she is viewed more favorably than is he by Ohio likely Democratic primary voters.

"Sen. Obama, to no one's surprise given his momentum nationally, has made inroads, especially among some of Sen. Clinton's softer supporters," said Brown. "If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers - women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale."

"For instance, while she held leads of four points and 27 points among likely primary voters below and over age 45 respectively earlier this month, now she trails by 52 - 42 percent among the younger group and her margin has shrunk to 55 - 35 percent among older voters," said Brown.

Could losing 10 points be considered holding steady. If Clinton had added 10 points to her lead would it still have been considered holding steady? I suspect not.

...winning OH and RI while losing TX and VT, will go to the frontrunner, Obama.  
Her best case scenario is winning 3 out of 4.
From there, she can make a real effort in Wyoming, downplay Mississippi, and slug it out for 6 weeks on the way to Pennsylvania.

But if she barely wins Ohio and loses everywhere else, the narrative will be Obama wins big in Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Clinton hangs on to win in Ohio...not really promising for the Pennsylvania interval.

Obviously, if she loses all four states, she's done.  finito. kaput.  "do not resuscitate".

Losing ten points in so short a timespan is not a good sign for Camp Hillary.

It might be pointed out this 50% drop in the lead was when Hillary was in Ohio and Obama was in Texas.

So if she WINs she will continue and the MO will change. it does not have to be 60-40.

+with all the press that BO has got why is he not ahead by now? Every day we read a headline her campaign is DEAD. If it is dead he should be leading in polls by 20 points like McCain is right?

They purposely lost the previous 10 or so races, just to make these upcoming wins that much of a bigger story!!

Obama camp falls for it again --

This is Robert Novak part II! WAKE UP AND SMELL THE FUCKING COFFEE

I just saw Hillary's "spoof" of Obama for the first time.  She has really lost it.  Up to now she had more or less maintained her dignity, but what the Clinton team is attempting right now is just sad.  I don't think it's going to work, either-- I bet Obama pulls out a squeaker in Ohio and dominates in Texas.

Game, set, match.

if your gonna vote to punish, make it a two-fer

Vote McCain

The Washington Post has a story about the Quinnipiac poll today, but they interpret the poll as showing Clinton losing ground, pointing out that "a Feb. 14 survey by the same organization showed her ahead by 21 points." One reason is a shift among college-educated voters:

Clinton led among college-educated voters by 5 points two weeks ago, but Obama is now ahead with that group by 25 points.

If you really do that you will have lost all of your credibility as someone who believes in what Obama campaigns for.  If he loses he will support Hillary.  Why not do the same.  Beats McCain by a million miles.  Why would you want to throw your vote to the fruitcake (and yes, long ago I had enormous respect for Nader, long gone) who took the election from us in 2000?

This is gonna be so sweet when Team Clinton blows this 20+ point lead.  There's still a week to go-- who knows what other numbskullery Mark Penn will devise between now and then.

Worst.  Campaign team.  Ever.

A 10 point win in OH nets roughly 14 delegates for Hillary.  TX is looking more and more like it will be at least a tie for Obama (and very likely will net him a few delegates).

So my question is, even if Clinton pulls off a 10 point win in OH, how does this really justify a continuation when she's likely to net at the very most 20 delegates on March 4th (and that's being generous).  Perhaps she'll justify it to herself to go on, but it will still basically look futile.  She needs far more than a 10 point win in OH, and likely TX, in order to seriously consider winning the nomination.    

the Q poll is still not getting the black vote correct. Obama will easily get at least 80% of the black vote in Ohio.

todd, if i were you, i'd stop hoping for the best. You're posts have been severely wrong. Every. Single. Time. Your shifting scale of perceived success is transparent as well.

a 10 point win in OH is no mandate to continue. Especially if she loses Texas (I predict she'll lose the smaller March 5th states by a comfortable margin). It's sad that as the polls bring more and more bad news (read latino story in todays NYT) the more modest your mission.

aren't you sick of being wrong?