Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotline/Diageo National Polls
by Todd Beeton, Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 12:21:23 PM EST
Just barely, but still, interesting all the same to the extent that these numbers run so drastically counter to the general sense of a steamroll toward an Obama nomination.
First the Gallup tracking poll, which shows Clinton gaining a net 6 points since yesterday's results and a total of 8 points since Obama's peak in the aftermath of the Potomac primaries. Recent trend below.
Gallup is not alone; the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Obama having gone from a 12 point post-February 12th lead over Clinton to a 5 point lead today.
As for the latest Hotline/Diageo poll Jonathan linked to earlier, it was originally reported that it was Obama up two over Clinton; it's actually the other way around:
In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, which surveyed 803 registered voters between February 14 and 17, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45-43% among Dem primary voters, with 7% undecided.
Essentially all these numbers are telling us this is a tie nationally, a conclusion confirmed by the latest Fox News poll, which shows Clinton and Obama in a deadlock at 44% each. But let's face it, it's not supposed to be a tie; this is now Obama's to lose, his momentum is supposed to be unstoppable. So why isn't he running away with this?
It is important to note, of course, that most of this polling was taken prior to Obama's Wisconsin and Hawaii wins, but considering the news for Clinton can only get better from here with two debates in the next 5 days, she's got to be happy to see that, in the national numbers anyway, she's actually not starting at a deficit at all. Now let's see if those Texas and Ohio numbers start to go her way as well...