I Give You Mr. 19%

by Todd Beeton, Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 09:37:33 AM EST

Remember the good ole days when we all had that one guy we were united against? Well, he's still around and I couldn't let this go without a mention, per ARG (h/t mcjoan):

George W. Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to a new low in American Research Group polling as 78% of Americans say that the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.

Among all Americans, 19% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 14% approve and 79% disapprove.

This is a steep drop-off from January when Bush was enjoying a Broder bounce up to 34% approval. It looks like the drop is largely due to people's anxiety about the economy.

Overall, 14% of Americans say that they approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy, 79% disapprove, and 7% are undecided. Among registered voters, 15% approve and 79% disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy. [...]

A total of 1% of Americans say that the national economy is getting better, 20% say it is staying the same, and 78% say the national economy is getting worse.

Wow.

The economic down-turn is not the only thing driving these numbers, though. I don't think we can look at this stunning rejection of Bush as at all separate from the presidential campaign. The poll was taken from Feb. 16-19, following a month when attention of the candidates of both parties was at its peak, and if this doesn't signal an embrace of the Democratic message, both on the incompetence of Bush and on the economy, and an absolute rejection of the Republican candidates whose message, such as it is, is essentially "more Bush!" I don't know what does.

In fact, I suspect we can look forward to further residual effects of the interest and excitement created by the Democratic candidates, including an increasing support for universal healthcare, fighting global warming and Iraq withdrawal. Actually, we arguably already are; DemFromCT brings us these numbers from a new Rasmussen Reports poll taken in mid-February:

61% of Americans would like to see U.S. troops brought home from Iraq within a year. That's up a point from a week ago and two points from two weeks ago.

Of course, while this certainly makes any attempt by Bush to salvage a legacy from his two disastrous terms as president more difficult, it's particularly problematic for John McCain who is already struggling with how to balance embracing the president whom Republicans still sort of like (although their approval has dropped to 45% according to ARG) and who's a boon for fundraising, and distancing him, which, by any objective measure, appears increasingly to be a political necessity. It also points to the importance of framing McCain's run for president, as mcjoan says, as "running for Bush's third term." McCain's continued viability in the general election polls makes it pretty clear that people don't yet see the Bush/McCain link. Let's make sure they do.

Tags: 1994 elections, 2008 Presidential election, george bush approval (all tags)

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20 Comments

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And his buddy John McCain
We need to link Senator "bomb bomb Iran" with President 19% at every opportunity. Mention it in the elevator, on the bus, in the public restroom.
by PhilFR 2008-02-20 09:40AM | 0 recs
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Wow!

He's less popular than Congress!

More people in the US now believe in UFOs than believe in George W. Bush.  :)

by mijita 2008-02-20 09:40AM | 0 recs
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Re: Wow!

Forget Congress, he's closing in on toe fungus territory.

by Lou Grinzo 2008-02-20 10:10AM | 0 recs
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ARG 19%

Based on how well ARG performs in polling primary contests, I can only assume Bush approval is really only 9%.

by The lurking ecologist 2008-02-20 09:48AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Well, considering that it's ARG, I wouldn't put too much stock in it. I'm sure it's low but just how low is a question.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-20 09:52AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Remember, you are either with him, or with the terrAHists

by kasjogren 2008-02-20 10:01AM | 0 recs
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19%...

is the new 91%

by The lurking ecologist 2008-02-20 10:07AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Fortunately, President Bush 43 comforts himself with the rememory that people hated Abraham Lincoln when he left office at the end of his second term, just like we hate him.  He doesn't care about us; he be aiming his arrows at HISTORY, baby, HISTORY.  Also, he already beat Poppy by 1. taking Baghdad; and 2. winning a second term, so he's feeling good.

by mgee 2008-02-20 10:07AM | 0 recs
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another Publican lie - Lincoln was loved at death

No matter how many times a Publican says a lie, it's still a lie.

In fact, it makes more sense to assume they are lying until you see provable evidence to the contrary.

http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h201.ht ml

He was assassinated 4 months after getting re-elected in 1864 by a margin of 212-21 in EVs and 56% of the vote.

Dont believe ANYTHING that Publicans tell you.  NOT ONE WORD.

by Ajax the Greater 2008-02-20 10:48AM | 0 recs
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No worries; I believe nothing they say.

Thanks.  I should have added an asterisk, as I find nothing to recommend Bush's particularized and self-aggrandizing view of history.  Indeed, I suspect that he will be - mmmm - this century's Hoover.  I can't begin to process my feelings, actually, when I read that the dolt is grasping at straws trying to compare himself (repeatedly) to Lincoln.  

by mgee 2008-02-20 11:04AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Also, HISTORY is written hundreds of years after the fact.  Criticizing him now is way premature.

by rfahey22 2008-02-20 11:24AM | 0 recs
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When Bush gets to zero...

... Broder will predict another "bounce."

After all, there is nowhere to go but up.

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-20 10:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%
  1. Stop using ARG as a reliable source
  2. Most Dems support Universal Healthcare, Obama's plan clearly does NOT!
  3. Are the troops ever coming home? Whether a Republican or a Democrat gets elected its almost as if the public doesnt care about Iraq anymore. Voters seem to believe that the surge has worked. WTF??!?!
by bsavage 2008-02-20 10:39AM | 0 recs
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Flawed Poll?

From another blog:

(I already posted this at Atrios, but it bears repeating here, since this 19% figure is getting a lot of play. I'm a survey researcher, by the way.)

I'd like to add to the previous comments about how bad ARG is. Scroll down to the bottom of their page that you link to, and you'll see the actual wording of the questions, and the order in which they ask them. Notice that they have a whole battery of questions about the economy first, and then, right at the end of the survey they ask about Bush's job approval.

This is the exact opposite of what a good public opinion poll does. You ask about the core "dependent variable" first (Bush approval) and THEN you ask about the independent variables (views of the economy).

When it's done right, with the approval question first, you find out what people's views are of Bush. When it's done the way ARG does it, with approval last, you find out what people think about Bush after they've just been asked a whole bunch of questions about the economy.

So, OK, from pollsters who actually have some standards and know what the hell they're doing (i.e., pretty much everyone other than ARG) we know that Bush' actual job approval is in the low 30% range. From ARG we know that if we get people thinking about the economy, it goes even lower.

That's actually useful information, from a message-testing perspective. Democrats need to keep talking about the economy.

See here:

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/2/ 20/125334/887/266#c266

by bartimaeus blue 2008-02-20 10:39AM | 0 recs
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Not my comment, BTW. To avoid confusion.

by bartimaeus blue 2008-02-20 10:40AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Bush is not good for McCain, but don't you get the feeling that he's largely just irrelevant now?Does anybody ever talk about him or even think about him?  Who even knows he's in Africa right now?  He has set the standard for bad presidenting, and everybody knows it.  McCain--or anybody--is manifestly overqualified by comparison.

by Upstate Dem 2008-02-20 10:43AM | 0 recs
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I do.

I do get that feeling.  As much as I want to hang McCain with Bush's legacy, I don't know that it will stick.  We will see, as the election plays out.

by mgee 2008-02-20 11:06AM | 0 recs
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Bush Next Career...Hollywood agent.

At 19% he nears the qualification to be an agent in LA.
His also excels at the other necessary skill... being a congenital LIAR!!!

I hear he's already got control of the movie rights for "My Pet Goat."

by demwords 2008-02-20 11:01AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

Okay, so this has been troubling me of late.  Lately CW in the blogosphere has held that linking McCain to Bush is a sure-fire way to go.  It makes sense in my head, but in my gut, I'm not sure it will work, for a couple of reasons.

First of all, I really feel that the prevailing narrative out there, since 2000, is that McCain and Bush hate each other.  This may be true, and it also may be true that McCain has sucked up to Bush in subsequent years.  But I still think that the majority of the public will think they don't like each other, no matter how many times "The Hug" picture is plastered about, mainly because it's probably true.

Second, linking McCain to Bush could have the effect of elevating McCain, in a weird way.  I mean, if you compare the two of them, McCain comes off quite well, don't you think?  (I'm sure 19% of the population would not agree.)  Everything Bush ISN'T just serves to underscore everything the public would like to believe McCain IS.

Third, but related to #2, I think there are a lot of people who like the policies of Bush but who think the implementation of those policies has sucked.  In order for this to be successful (for Dems) as a branding strategy, McCain must somehow be linked not only to Bush's ideas (oxymoron?) but also to his colossal failures in implementation.  Can this be done?

Someone convince me; I'm feeling like the opportunity that is 19% may not be being fully utilized, but I don't know what the best way to do it is.  Someone above mentioned Bush's general irrelevance.  I wish we could have an All-Bush-All-the-Time news focus; then we could win the election without campaigning at all.

by Ms Bluezone 2008-02-20 11:06AM | 0 recs
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Re: I Give You Mr. 19%

This is what I like to see: a cease-fire in the blue-on-blue fire to get to the heart of winning back this country.

by carloseljefe 2008-02-20 12:13PM | 0 recs

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