Tonight Shaping Up To Be A Big Night For Obama?
by Todd Beeton, Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:11:19 PM EST
Looking for some signs of what to expect out of the results tonight, the results are somewhat mixed.
Some early exit polls in from Mike Allen, per Ben Smith are certainly signalling a huge night for Obama:
Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Sen. Obama looks like he's headed for a huge win in today's Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials' revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton's core groups of voters -- women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes -- while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.
Now, the exit polls have tended to inflate Obama's real voter support in the past, but Allen's take on the numbers certainly sounds unambiguous.
This news doesn't exactly square with some reports of lower than expected turnout in Wisconsin today, which, if true, would likely hurt Obama rather than Clinton, especially in the college town of Madison.
From Madison, WI's Capital Times:
The city of Middleton has two polling places, with roughly an equal number of residents eligible to vote in each: St. Bernard's Parish Center and the high school.When I voted at 3 p.m. at the school, I was No. 1,759. The polling place was not all that busy, but a poll worker said it had been fairly steady.
Patricia Amble, city clerk-treasurer, said at 3:45 that she thought the turnout so far was "less than expected."
As of 4pm local time, 2,000 people had voted; for their precinct to reach 38%, as they originally expected, they'll need to reach 5,000 voters by the time the polls close at 8pm (9pm EST.)
One major reason for the lower turnout does seem to be the weather.
Frigid temperatures and slick roads are keeping voters at home so far this primary election day.Just before noon, Early reports from polling places across Dane County show only about a 10 percent turnout, according to the county clerk's office.
Up to 35 percent of the state's eligible voters had been predicted to turn out statewide, mainly because of the close Democratic primary race between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
But one aspect of Wisconsin voting that appears to greatly favor Obama is the same day registration, and if one polling place in Madison is any indication, voters are taking advantage of it.
One of the heaviest polling places for voter turnout this afternoon was the Heritage Congregational Church on Madison's southwest side, where election officials estimated more than 800 ballots had been cast by 2:30 p.m.A steady stream of new voters filled out registration forms as already registered voters waited for ballots.
An informal survey of voters leaving the polling place showed overwhelming support for Barack Obama.
We'll know pretty quickly tonight, probably just after polls close at 9pm EST, if it's going to be another rough night for Hillary Clinton or not. If it's a clear win for Obama, it will likely be called for him right away; if they can't quite call it, that's good news for Clinton. Just going by a completely unscientific and observational criterion, if Howard Wolfson's confidence level in an interview on MSNBC is any indication at all of what the campaigns are seeing on the ground, I'd bet we have a call for Obama at 9:01pm.
Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Wisconsin Primary (all tags)
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