That last Pollster average includes the ARG poll, which has the greatest likelihood of being and outlier (cuz they've relatively sucked).

This poll is also probably an outlier though PPP has been better than ARG so my current assumption is that Obama is still probably 4-5 points up. In otherwords, time to get back to work.

SurveyUSA Report Card confirms PPP is near the bottom as far as accuracy:

http://www.surveyusa.com/wp-content/uplo ads/2008/02/4-pm-021308-median-hi-level- all.JPG

Jonathan, if you don't see the point in posting an ARG poll, then there's no need to post a PPP poll.

They are both very crappy pollsters.

I wouldn't doubt those GE numbers.  I haven't been home all that much in the last few years, but I do get the sense that people REALLY like McCain in Wisconsin.  He would be very formidable there.

Not good for Hillary

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtEmail.aspx?g=a661ced6-61db-4aea-a60c-e be256c4676c

I think it is unlikely that she is leading the Dem primary when Obama does so much better against McCain than she does in the General Election. We absolutely cannot lost WI.  Did Kerry ever trail Bush there by this much (as the Hillary v. McCain numbers)?

That poll says that Obama leads among women by 7%. It also says that 12% of the respondents were African American. I have trouble believing this. But, we'll find out tomorrow.

I don't buy a lead that big, even though I want to.  At this point, with most polls showing a VERY tight race, I think the expectation has to be for a 3-4 point margin either way.  

Hillary doesn't EVEN WIN WI? SUSA and Rasmussen have her losing a bunch of other insignificant states - IA, WA, OR, NV, CO, PA and OH. She's on track to being the worst Democratic nominee since Dukkakis.

From the crosstabs:
Obama's margins remain the same among Clinton's among the 55+ age group, but he wins big among younger voters.

He wins considerably more Hispanic voters than Clinton, but note that they only make up 2% of the survey sample, and could easily be an outlier.

Most interestingly, almost all of his improvement comes from SE Wisconsin; I think that this is the part of Wisconsin with Madison and Milwaukee, so he may be winning over the suburbs.

At this point, I'd figure the general election polls to be essentially meaningless. Having two potential nominees for the Democratic primary probably skews perceptions in a way that makes even an honest respondent have trouble figuring out his or her preference.

The PPP Poll is pretty close to what I found out yesterday whn making calls for Obama.

I made about 300 calls, and spoke to almost 100 people.  Of them,

51 supported Obama strong (40)/leaning (11)
36 supported Hillary  strong (15)/leaning (21)
13 for GOP.

If these results hold up, for the good of the party, HRC should drop out before she damages the Clinton brand beyond repair.

Those GE numbers are scary for Clinton, but they're really not that much of a surprise.  Clinton can beat McCain, but it won't be easy.

We saw a preview of what an Obama-McCain matchup would look like last Tuesday after the Potomac Primary.  Obama delivered an inspiring speech to an excited crowd of 16,000 people of diverse ages and backgrounds; McCain followed up in a hotel conference room on stage with a bunch of white men older even than he is, where he struggled to read a speech off of the teleprompters to a crowd of ~100.  Compared to Obama, McCain looked like a paraplegic.

If he gets the nomination, Obama will destroy McCain in the general.

"Coming on the heels yesterday's Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania which showed Barack Obama beating John McCain by 10 points while Senator Clinton trailed McCain by 2 points, a new SurveyUSA poll of Wisconsin shows Obama again leading McCain by double-digists, while McCain beats Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%.

According the to results:

John McCain beats Hillary Clinton by 7 points, turning Wisconsin red for the first time since 1984, when Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale by 9 points in Wisconsin en route to a 49-state blowout.

In a recent Rasmussen poll providing an early look at potential general election Presidential match-ups in the important state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama holds a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain, while McCain edges out Hillary Clinton in a close race. Obama leads McCain 49% to 39%, but McCain leads Clinton 44% to 42%.

The report also notes:

Obama currently outperforms Clinton in several other recent state polls including Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada
Nationally, Barack Obama leads John McCain in eight of the nine most recent head-to-head polls, while Senator Clinton leads in only two.

In the latest CNN poll Barack leads by 8 points, and in the lone poll where McCain leads (taken in late January) Barack trails by only 1 pt.

The New Republic writes...

Not a single polls has Clinton doing as well as Obama. Normally this wouldn't be such a big deal--after all, most people don't obsessively read polling data. But this year's race might be different. "

The PPP Poll is pretty close to what I found out yesterday whn making calls for Obama.

I made about 300 calls, and spoke to almost 100 people.  Of them,

51 supported Obama strong (40)/leaning (11)
36 supported Hillary  strong (15)/leaning (21)
13 for GOP.

If these results hold up, for the good of the party, HRC should drop out before she damages the Clinton brand beyond repair.

Too many wildcards. At the Polls registration, crossover, weather.

Fortunately, you've got me. Running a Statewide race without staff, you learn stuff. I 'interviewed' something like 15,000 eligible Wisconsinites in '06.

By Districts:
1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3 NO CHANGE

2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3. NO CHANGE I'm hearing a lot of 6-2 locally, but I don't buy it. Clinton's rescheduled visit for tonight is firewall on the 6th delegate. She loses Madison in a rout, but breaks even in the burbs.

3d (Kind) Obama UPGRADE from 3-3 to 60% chance of 4-2. based on reports from the ground in rural Counties especially Trempeleau and along the Kickapoo, plus the success of Obama's visit to Eau Claire. Congressman Kind's said he'll cast his SD vote with the district winner.

4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3, big turnout favors an Obama delegate split, as Clinton's support from public employee Unions is diluted. 20% chance Obama 4-2. Clinton's weather-forced retail appearances yesterday probably better for her than a typical staged event.

5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton 3-2, on prochoice Republican womens' crossover NO CHANGE

6th (Petri) Obama, 3-2, I'm becoming confident on this one. UPGRADE OBAMA

7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in `06. Eau Claire County straddles the District line. now 70% chance of the 4-2. UPGRADE OBAMA

8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Tossup. Was lean Clinton UPGRADE OBAMA. Kagen's also said he'll cast his SD with the District's voters.

they are not a very good predictor, based on other polls they did, their quality similar to Zogby or ARG.

If there is any fairness in the world, Obama's presidential campaign will be finished over his stealing from Deval Patrick's speech. Joe Biden got trashed for borrowing only a few lines from John Kinnock (sp??) the British labor leader for which Kinnock did not have any objections. May be the lazy beltway reporters will now do their job and actually find out what else Obama has been borrowing/stealing in his rhetoric. BTW, Biden and Kinnock were also very close philosophically and may be they even spoke on occasions

The PPP poll reflects very well the noise coming out of Wisconsin.
For Obama to win big, the demographics of young people, African Americans, college educated whites, and independents would have be motivated to turn out in mass. They are.
For Clinton to win narrowly, the demographics of blue collar whites and old guard Democrats would have to be more motivated than the voting blocks that favor Obama. They aren't.
Several factors are working again Clinton in Wisconsin.
Her desperate looking negative ad campaign against a fellow Democrat. Her lack of public campaigning in the state. The desire on the part of Democrats to end the nomination process sooner rather than later by voting against Clinton. A sense that Clinton can't win over Obama's voting blocks, but that Obama can win her's. A greater appeal for Obama among moderates and conservatives than even McCain has, which is huge because Wisconsin is an open primary (and a possible swing state in the general election). And a general feeling of apathy for Hillary Clinton and the Clinton legacy. The cafe talk, the blog talk, and the small talk regarding Clinton in Wisconsin has been "have you heard what she did today?"
I am sticking to my previous prediction of a 7-8 point victory for Obama, but I am going conservative in that prediction.
Tomorrow it will all depend upon who actually shows up to vote, but the vibe favors Obama.

Pretty standard stuff here.  Obama gets into a state, things look close for a few days and then WHAM!  He crushes her.  

Speaking of tying Obama to Patrick - what about tying McCain to Clinton.

Mark Penn, Clinton's top campaign strategist, is CEO of the public relations firm Burson-Marsteller
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Penn

Lance Tarrance, a Senior Republican Strategist for McCain is managing director to Burson-Marsteller Public Affairs Practice in Washington D.C.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Tarra nce

... Wisconsin is Clinton's to lose.

This set of figures out Wisconsin are very very telling. On or about Valentines day, it appears America made up its mind. The numbers from Wisconsin match closely to the numbers in much of the rest of America. It wont be a blow out for Obama, but it will signal that the decision has been made. In the great way that momentum feels like 'we' have made up 'our' mind now.

This is the Gallup National Trendline. Three-day rolling average. N=approx. 1,200 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

You can find the raw data at the top of the page here, and elsewhere. http://pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm



There was a dance where they were even but Clinton's fall is obvious and continous, and Obama has been embraced, he has reached 49% support. Please note the dates for Obama's new momentum, its since this new growth started again just February 10th. This is well past the SuperTuesday bump. This is now confirmation on a national scale.

When you combine that with, for example, todays poll in Wisconsin. It is cited above, not the one showing Obama ahead of Clinton, but the numbers for McCain against our Candidates. America has said OK we're buying.

McCain 42 Obama 52

McCain 49 Clinton 42

This could not be any more stark.

Lastly, I have a youtube video from Lawrence Lessig explaining why he endorsed Obama. My faith in the will of the voters is reinforced, as I feel more strongly about their wisdom choosing Barack Obama. It is 20 minutes long, and needs professional help with its graphics, I warn you. Lessig is the American intellectual hero of rights and the internet and corruption.

Professor Lawrence Lessig on Obama