That would really be a huge blow to Clinton, especially if it tightens over the next few weeks.

I would not be shocked for Obama to win this (and effectively end Hillary's candidacy).

In California, the percent of Latinos who voted expanded dramatically from 2004 to 2008.  I expect similar trends in Texas.  It may not affect the delegate race there too much, since delegates are allocated according to the 2004 vote (and there are zero delegates assigned based on statewide primary vote), but it should help Hillary in the popular vote.

IF Hillary doesn't take Texas by at least 20%, it's over.

I think the race will go for Clinton, because Hispanic voters are for her and AA are for him; whites "split", but as other southern states have shown, the white vote goes for Clinton. VA is a border state, so I do not count that as a Southern state.

Finally, Insider Advantage is a terrible pollster. They had Edwards winning IA; so, I don't trust them. McClatchy, SurveyUSA polls are better metrics.

I agree that Texas will be competitive. The Latino vote also seems to skew younger in Texas than in some other states.

Another complicating factor is the double voting. Texas has both a primary and a caucus on the same day, and both determine delegate allocations. It is entirely possible that one candidate wins the primary and another wins the caucus, and we could enjoy the spectacle of the media declaring a "winner" and then madly backtracking. There can also be wildly divergent results between the popular vote and the delegate outcome.

It's also a state that can suck a campaign treasury dry. Advertising is expensive, and the campaign jet keeps busy shuttling the candidate across the vast distances. El Paso, Corpus Christi, and Wichita Falls aren't exactly close to each other. The campaigns must incur these costs for basically a full month since there's a long run-up to March 4th.

The state will be a huge challenge for both candidates.

Al Giordano over at the field has posted that there are indications of a generational split among Latinos in Texas - younger Latinos seem to be (at least among elected politicians) supporting Obama, with older ones supporting Clinton.  The generation gap, and the fact that Texas is a comparably young state, may make a bigger impact on results than the Latino vote.  I wouldn't be surprised if Latinos in Texas don't vote for Clinton in numbers much higher proportionally than whites of the same economic background and age.  

This, combined with Obama's momentum in the endorsement race down there, means I wouldn't be surprised if Obama ends up winning Texas narrowly (say by four points).  This would effectively mean the end of Hillary's run, although Ickes is now indicating that the campaign will continue onto June regardless.

This may explain why Hillary is leaving WI early. She can't afford to loose TX.

"I told President Clinton that I thought it was really important that pledged delegates be the deciding factor. And he agreed with me."

Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK), quoted by Tulsa World.

Could be Boren's talking out of school here - or that WJC will say Boren misunderstood him.  But really, does this surprise anyone?

If one of the candidates is ahead in pledged delegates, the supers will use their judgment to crown that person the winner.

HRC can still win the nomination - but she has to at least tie BHO in the pledged delegate count.  That's been one of the oddest things about the past week and a half - there's so much talk from the campaign about whether she can win by virtue of the supers.  Shouldn't she be aiming to win a majority of the pledges and popular vote?  There's been almost no talk of that as the goal - as though she's conceding it.  That's really not where you want your campaign to be.

This state should be very competitive.  There are twice as many blacks here as California and the Hispanics here are quite a bit different than in California.  Also, Obama is helped by the fact that the Republican race is pretty much over, meaning Republicans and Independents can come in and vote for him.  

Don't forget that the African American population has increased, especially around the Houston area, because of the large migration out of the area ravaged by Katrina. Either way, Clinton needs to win this state by a comfortable margin to stay competetive with the delegate race.

If this is how Texas plays out in two weeks, Clinton's done.

Even though Clinton has a lead now, it should worry her that it isn't bigger. Obama has, in just about every primary so far, been able to close the gap. I can't think of any race where Clinton performed better on voting day than she was polling at a few weeks before. Most important though is that Clinton win enough to get a get amount of delegates. Winning by 5% ain't gonna do it. She needs to win by 15% to get a good chunk from texas.

You are all assuming this is correct in a poll of 403 likely voters?

many delgates will Hillary net?  Remember - 1/4 will be allocated by caucus that night and not on the primary.

I have seen several analysis that suggest she will net less than 5.

Hillary needs to net 25+ delegates at LEAST to close the pledged delegate lead.

I don't think people realize how bad the delegate math is for Hillary if you subtract Michigan and Florida.  

Let's not forget that there will be two debates from now until March 4th, and Obama is going to have to answer specific policy questions. Either the moderators will ask him or I suspect Hillary will do it herself. She has to...letting Obama get away with not answering specific policy questions and providing answers about change and hope has gone on long enough.

Also, the electorate has been very volatile and we could see a big swing towards Hillary when people get to see in person that Hillary is about solutions and Obama is about empty promises.

Penn is damaging Clinton with yet another of his stupidisms:

"Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election. If it were, every nominee would win because every nominee wins Democratic primaries."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/020 8/8551.html

Please don't work too hard to try to wrap your brain around that one. He's an incompetent idiot and needs to go.

Other than hope what else does Barack offer?  And why is he running behind McCain in Pennsylvania?  Last time u checked that was a blue state.

Obama's going for a clean sweep of Texas newspaper endorsements. Two to go:

The Houston Chronicle - OBAMA
El Paso Times - OBAMA
San Antonio Express-News - OBAMA
Austin American Statesman - OBAMA
The Dallas Morning News - OBAMA
BURNT ORANGE REPORT - OBAMA
Al Dia de Dallas  
Fort Worth Star Telegram

A picture is worth a thousand words:

Hillary's going to win Texas and win big. I'm a lifelong Texan...I know how we think. Plus, finally the air is being let out of the Obama balloon, and just in the nick of time.

She will win big in OH, TX, and PA....enough to get an insurmountable popular vote lead. So even if she can't quite win enough enough pledged delegates to overtake Obama, with the popular vote win and MI and FL still outstanding, she will win the nomination with the superdelegates.

Just saying...this is how it will go down. Prepare yourselves.

"His has been obnoxious and arrogant, saying that Hillary can't catch him. "  When did Obama say that?

It's Obama supporters who have been merely pointing out the MATH that makes it nearly impossible for her to catch up to him in pledged delegates.

Last I heard Math was an important subject to understand in order to have a grip on reality.

I was at Sharpstown Mall in Houston yesterday. I was one of the few white people there. It seemed pretty much split between Hispanics and African Americans. There were a number of young people there asking people if they were registered to vote. EVERY young black person I spoke to said they were voting for Obama. The Hispanics were almost entirely for Clinton. I know this is just about dozen young people, but I though I would mention it. They said the Obama people should not assume that just because they are young, they will be voting for him....

It has been repeated many times - the ONLY way for Hillary to overcome a 130 pledged delegate deficit is to win ALL the remaining primaries by at least 55% - that includes WI and Hawaii.

Blowouts in OHIO, TX and PA would have to be in the 65/35 range to do it. Nothing in the current polls suggests that is possible in Texas.

That's the MATH. It's not arrogance to make that known. But it is slick for Hillary to make it seem otherwise - if you're not reading the fine print.

They know they are can't catch Obama on pledged delegates. They just don't want her supporters to know it yet.

March 5th everyone will know it. Then the question will be whether her supporters will support a convention fight that will likely split the Party.

You forgot to mention that Rasmussen has Clinton up +16, 54-38 over Obama at the current time.  IF you take ARG out of the equation, her lead is double digits on average.  If you put ARG in her lead is around 6-8 points.  

She leads in more regions of the state than he does, and I don't see Obama doing much to reduce those margins in South Texas, West Texas and North Texas.  She will more than hold her own in metro Dallas, metro Houston and San Antonio.  Greater Austin will probably favor Obama by a good margin.

Texas - 193 delegates
Ohio - 141 delegates
Pennsylvania - 158 delegates
North Carolina - 115 delegates

What are the predictions on who wins which and by how much?

because the Texas delagate race will be determined by the primary and the caucus/convention on the night of the primary.

Many will not come back to the caucus that night after voting. So likely primary voters will only determine 67% of the delagates and the remaining third will be determined by the caucus that night. Adn those results will not be fully known for at least a week later.

So if anyone is going to decalre anyone the winner that March 4th night is not reality based.  With 1/3 of the delatgates determined outsinde the primary, Texas will not be decided for a while, so get ready!

The polls really mean nothing in Texas!

Add the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram to the all the other Texas newspapers endorsing Obama:

The Houston Chronicle - OBAMA
El Paso Times - OBAMA
San Antonio Express-News - OBAMA
Austin American Statesman - OBAMA
The Dallas Morning News - OBAMA
BURNT ORANGE REPORT - OBAMA
Al Dia de Dallas  
Fort Worth Star Telegram - OBAMA

It seems that taking into account the polling in Ohio.  The States with well functioning 'Old Guard' Democratic Machines (New York, Ohio), seem to be coming down in Hillary's column.  

Those States with weaker 'non-battleground states' Dem Machines (Wyoming, Idaho, Wisconsin) seem to be going to Barack.

I know that this is not 100% true but I sense a trend there.

Texas is in a rebuilding process of its Party machine, Obama seems to be closing the gap.   Interesting.

Look at the polls in many Super Tuesday States Two weeks out. They tightened dramatically and he didn't get to visit many of those states.

You guy act like these numbers don't move. The only thing that could keep expanding Hillary's numbers in Ohio & Texas is if he does something so monumentally idiotic in those debates as to collapse his support.

There is nothing I have seen so  far to convince me that is going to happen.  We have been witnessing the slow erosion of her base of support since Iowa, with pockets of resistance along the way.

That trend will continue in the March 4th states.

The thing with this so-called delegate "math" that speaks to Obama's inevitability of Obama as the pledged delegate winner is that it doesn't account for two things:

First, Michigan and Florida. Those two states have to be counted somehow whether by a re-vote (though who would pay for that, I have no idea) or by allowing the votes that have been cast to count (not entirely fair and I say that as an ardent Hillary supporter).  

Second, Puerto Rico. Yes, Puerto Rico. The territory has 63 total delegates that are not allocated proportionally. In other words, its winner-takes-all.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02162008/new s/regionalnews/obama_robbed_in_ny_97932. htm

Looks like NY could tighten significantly as well.

Since people took their texas poll serious,

take this serious too.

Hillary 49
Obama 43

ARG shows Hillary trending down and Obama trending up. Remember ARG had Hillary up by 9 ten days ago before Potomac et al. So the race in WI is also tightening.

Those numbers are will change by the 22nd. Hillary needs to win by a decent margin and 7 pts wont cut it

Obama '08
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