Since when do high turnout favor Clinton ? LOL

Why do high turnout numbers favor clinton? That makes no sense. They seem to have always favored OBama.

Same day registration and cross over voting will hurt Hillary. Lots of Independents and Republicans will cross over to vote for Obama. It happened in Virginia too.  Also, Obama's had time to tour the "real Wisconsin" (Green Bay, Wausau, Stevens Point, Sheboygan, Racine, etc.) and not just Madison and Milwaukee. I predict Obama wins by 8.  Hillary spins it as a win because she didn't lose by 20 again. Reality is: she should have gone there after Virginia and not Texas. Instead of three days campaigning over the weekend she could have had 7.

Re: Texas, IVR has a poll out with Hillary up 8. Useless ARG has Obama up 6 in Texas, which is probably true in the inverse: Hillary up 6-10. Problem for Hillary is her margin isn't strong enough in the Valley to turn 4 delegate districts over to her.

See this analysis on delegates in Texas. Note that this is just the primary phase of the vote. Caucus votes will add to the delegate margin for Obama.

Within 100 or so is a tie. As long as Hillary keeps it close, and granting she wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the nomination is hers.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

ARG in TX:

Obama +6 (48-42)

I don't really know what to make of this.  On one hand, it IS ARG.  On the other hand, I don't remember them ever being an outlier for [i]Obama[/i].

Texas Credit Union League has Hillary up 49-41 over http://burntorangereport.com/showDiary.d o?diaryId=4972

not that I have any clue whether to trust the texas credit union, but burnt orange does have an interesting take on why it will be hard for hillary to net delegates from texas even with a lead.

It's much more accurate. And it's worse news for Hillary than it looks thanks to delegate apportionment.

Wisconsin is going to be a blowout.

58 Obama
42 Clinton

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_prima ry-312.html

RCP also lists an Insider Advantage poll that has Clinton +7.  It appears right now that ARG and Ras are outliers and the race is most likely in the Clinton +7-10 range.

Somebody tell me how white men are going to favor in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas?

This may be the factor the shapes the race.

Certainly does not look good for Obama in any of these states. Time to really start to work even harder for Obama to try to stay close in these races.

Dig deep, Obama supporters..he is in deep trouble and needs our support more than ever.
Another 100 bucks to Obama today for me.

Perhaps Texas is a better shot for Obama, thanks to its arcane delegate selection rules.

Obama's one big weakness is downscale white voters.  Anf if Hillary wins all three key states, she is the nominee.  Can she beat McCain?
That's another question.

The Texas poll showing Clinton with probably around a 7% advantage should scare Clinton. Obama, in almost every state before, has been able to close the gap. She needs to win Texas and win it by a big margin. When has she ever been able to expand on a lead? It seems that each time she just tries to hang on to what lead she has and hope that OBama doesn't win.

I'll post the ARG TX poll below, which reports aqn Obama lead, but really regardless of any polls...

...even IF the current MARGINS ARE MAINTAINED, Obama will still have a huge primary majority.  

End of story.

ARG:

Democrats TX

Clinton 42%
Obama 48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 7%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.

On polls, Kos had this story yesterday.  Sounds like MYDD is cherry picking.  Ah well.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2 /14/203353/074/622/457046

Obama has done virtually no campaigning in Ohio and Texas.

We all know what happens when Obama campaigns in a state. Look at where he was polling in the Super Tuesday states 18 days before.

Look at where he was polling in last Saturday's states. Look at where he was polling in the Potomac Primaries.

If Texas really is close right now (6% or so lead for Clinton), Obama will win.

And I don't get why people are saying "Wisconsin is closer than expected." Up until these recent polls (in the past week), Hillary had a big lead there.

Interesting.  Of the two states, I would guess (perhaps wrongly) that Ohio is the more winnable in a general election.  Any ideas on what Obama's unfavorables are like in the two states across parties?

the rasmussen poll in Texas is the first one that actually makes sense to me. I don't know much about the primary dynamics coming out of Texas (although I lived there for over 10 years) but I'd expect a huge amount of the latino vote to break for Clinton. That alone should give her a substantial win.

Anything under 58% for Clinton would surprise me.

I'm still holding onto the belief that Obama wins Wisconsin by over 10points.

Ohio, which I thought Obama could make a race of at one time doesn't seem likely to be close (although I still believe the polls are undercounting his support by about 4% (mainly on the strength he should get from the black community). I doubt he keeps it within 8 points.