Clinton Shedding Superdelegates, Obama Adding Them
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 07:30:57 AM EST
The following jumped out at me from this morning's First Read:
Not counting Lewis (because the situation is confusing), Obama has gained 12 superdelegates since February 5, while Clinton has lost a net of three.
Josh Marshall has a great write up of the Clinton campaign's superdelegate strategy -- trying to cajole the media to count these unpledged delegates along with the pledged ones to help them pad their total and, moreover, trying to use a superdelegate lead in order to overcome a pledged delegate deficit in order to secure the Democratic presidential nomination -- that I would recommend you read in full. But I'd also like to point you to something in particular that Marshall wrote that relates back directly to the quoted section above from First Read.
The Clinton camp's super delegate gambit is not only audacious. Far more than that it is simply unrealistic. The super delegates who are gettable for Clinton by loyalty, conviction or coercion are already got. And enough's been seen of both candidates for everyone to be more than acquainted with them. The ones who remain -- who make up roughly half the total -- are waiting to see who the winner is.
Marshall gets to the heart of the problem of Clinton. But beyond that, as First Read notes, not only is Obama starting to get more superdelegates, directly cutting into Clinton's advantage within this group, Clinton is in fact losing superdelegates. Some are moving over to Obama, while others are simply balking at the idea being floated by the campaign that they should, in the case that Obama has more pledged delegates and overall votes, nevertheless help deliver the nomination to Clinton.
Now I think that Clinton could potentially come closer to erasing Obama's pledged delegate lead. I really do. But that would entail running a smarter pledged delegate campaign. No more overlooking caucuses. No more staying out of states until the Saturday before election day. And no more suggesting that superdelegates should reject the will of actual voters, both because that strategy isn't working and because it's counterproductive in terms of turning off actual voters.
Tags: Barack Obama, Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton, superdelegates (all tags)
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