Wisconsin & Hawaii
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 06:38:16 AM EST
I looked at the WI demographics, and talked with operatives from the state, and it's not a slam dunk for Obama. He does have a strong base in Milwaukee-Racine, Madison is a capital area that would favor him heavily, and along with Green Bay, home to college students. The mix is definitely there for Obama to win the state.
But why does he refuse to debate Clinton? The line that "there's already been 18 debates" is a bit of a sham. There's really only been 1 debate between Clinton and Obama, that was in CA. Does the Obama campaign believe that Obama's debating Clinton in CA contributed to her 10 percent win?
I don't know, but it smacks a bit like he's afraid to debate her, and I've seen it as somewhat of an opportunity for Clinton to put out a humorous ad that plays it up. Something like this:
I think that's something Steve Eichenbaum would smile at; and it could be just what Clinton needs in Wisconsin.
As for Hawaii. I don't really have much to go off of there. Even when I lived on the Big Island beaches for 6 months back in the early 90's, I don't recall learning much about the state's politics. It's considered to be strongly in Obama's camp, given it's his native state, and is a caucus. Close the books, right?
Probably, but look. It's a make-up of 80 percent Asian-descent voters, whom have been the strongest Clinton backers to date; it's a closed caucus only open to registered Democrats, and from what I've read, its a machine-politics state. The machine is backing Clinton. Maybe that's not enough, but it might be.