Wisconsin & Hawaii

I don't know what the expectations are for Clinton, going into Wisconsin and Hawaii, but they've gotta be pretty low. Believe it or not, there could be an opening for Clinton in both states. Or at least exceed those low expectations.

I looked at the WI demographics, and talked with operatives from the state, and it's not a slam dunk for Obama. He does have a strong base in Milwaukee-Racine, Madison is a capital area that would favor him heavily, and along with Green Bay, home to college students. The mix is definitely there for Obama to win the state.

But why does he refuse to debate Clinton? The line that "there's already been 18 debates" is a bit of a sham. There's really only been 1 debate between Clinton and Obama, that was in CA. Does the Obama campaign believe that Obama's debating Clinton in CA contributed to her 10 percent win?

I don't know, but it smacks a bit like he's afraid to debate her, and I've seen it as somewhat of an opportunity for Clinton to put out a humorous ad that plays it up. Something like this:

I think that's something Steve Eichenbaum would smile at; and it could be just what Clinton needs in Wisconsin.

As for Hawaii. I don't really have much to go off of there. Even when I lived on the Big Island beaches for 6 months back in the early 90's, I don't recall learning much about the state's politics. It's considered to be strongly in Obama's camp, given it's his native state, and is a caucus. Close the books, right?

Probably, but look. It's a make-up of 80 percent Asian-descent voters, whom have been the strongest Clinton backers to date; it's a closed caucus only open to registered Democrats, and from what I've read, its a machine-politics state. The machine is backing Clinton. Maybe that's not enough, but it might be.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

111 Comments

Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

This post has shocked me.  Jerome thinks Hillary has openings in states where she will go on to get trounced in?  I am shocked i tell you.

I await the "Don't count Hillary out in Mississippi & Wyoming" Thread with breathless abandon.

by Socks The Cat 2008-02-13 06:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

No, NO! This is a tight race and every vote counts. Getting comfortable is the death of an insurgent campaign. There is no way that Obama's staff is thinking WI is going to be easy.

Obama is the underdog in every race!  

by JoeCoaster 2008-02-13 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Nope they made that mistake once and it lead to the only bad day they have had this primary season. I don't see it happening again.

by JDF 2008-02-13 07:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Dude,  I was drinking my morning coffee when I read your comment.  I laughed so hard I almost choked.  

"breathless abandon"  .....

I love it!  You summed up in in two words my feelings about Jerome's prognostications.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-02-13 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Yes, got him exactly where they want them.

In the horizon, speeding away.

by ChrisR 2008-02-13 06:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Like coyote chasing roadrunner.

by s5 2008-02-13 08:35AM | 0 recs
Wisconsin waits for HRC to show up

After absorbing her eighth consecutive defeat- and all blowouts leading to a ballooning Obama pledged delegate lead - Hillary decides to make a stand in Wisconsin go to El Paso, three weeks before Texas votes.

In Wisconsin Wednesday- no; Thursday- no; Friday- no; Saturday morning and afternoon- no.  There are rumors that by Saturday night, Hillary will have found Wisconsin on the map for an all out two day campaign "effort."

HRC's commitment to Wisconsin could be described as, well, cheesy.  

Consecutive losses nine and ten loom.  

by mboehm 2008-02-13 09:12AM | 0 recs
an opening is all Hillary needs at this point

let's see her shimmy her way in through that opening and get a good fraction of the delegates. She sure can use them at this point.

by Mariel 2008-02-13 06:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Congressman Neil Abercrombie is supporting Obama.  He knew and went to college with Barack's father, Barack Sr.  

by IowaCubs 2008-02-13 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Obama doesn't have time to debate Clinton.  That ship has sailed.  Obama has to focus on McCain now.

by Drummond 2008-02-13 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I live in WI, Jerome.  I have lived in Green bay, madison, Rhinelander, and Lake Mills.

While I'll agree that WI is not a "slam dunk" for Obama, the deomgraphics of the state, as well as it's progressive nature AND it's robust college system (best in the land!) clearly give Obama an edge.  She'll need to beat him outright here by more than 5 points to regain any real momentum.

As for the debates.  I can't believe I am reading you pose this question, given your status as a political observer.  Obama has NO reason to debate her, as he is no longer on the dark sie of the moon.  He is winning the momentum.  The endless carping by Hillary makes her look like a desperate challenger, and you know it.  

HRC may win HI outright...but try building a comeback narrative on THAT win.

Mqark my words, Jerome, the drumbeat that began last night for her to step down for the good of the party will increase and grow very loud after next tuesday...the only question left is whether or not she will hear it or not.

The longer she goes the more she risks forever damaiging the Clinton brand....and NO ONE...even me as an obama guy wants THAT.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-13 06:47AM | 0 recs
Drumbeat

I hear the drums, they're saying, "We're drums, we don't what we're saying."

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-13 06:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Drumbeat

So Z...what do YOU think is more important?  The ruination of both the Clinton brand and the GE because of the Clinton desire....or party unity & strength?  

The tea leaves aren't lying, my friend. If she can't take WI and HI...she needs to throw it in.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-13 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Hey, if you haven't lived in Belleville, then you haven't truly lived.

by rfahey22 2008-02-13 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

WAITAMINNIT!!!  I DID live in Bellevills...and oregon, WI.  I just lumped them in w/ Madison!!  

I love Belleville...home of the Wildcats!

by a gunslinger 2008-02-13 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

True 'dat, though in most sports its teams are now consolidated with other schools.

Small world.

by rfahey22 2008-02-13 08:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Fahey...I recall the name well.  How old are you?  I only went to Belleville schools for about 3 years, but of all my homes, I loved IT and Rhinelander best.  

I graduated Oregon HS in 1986.  Went to Belleville 74-76.  My surname is Severson.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-13 08:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I'm 28.  I live in New York now.  I've never been to Rhinelander - maybe I'll have to pay a visit the next time I'm home!

by rfahey22 2008-02-13 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

There have been 18 debates.  18!

Yes, we need more debates like America needs more conservative talk shows.

by IowaCubs 2008-02-13 07:29AM | 0 recs
Why would he give free media...

... to a campaign that is struggling right now to stay competitive in advertising? It seems like a pretty sound tactical decision.

by Purplepeople 2008-02-13 06:48AM | 0 recs
Which part is spin?

It being a sound tactical decision?
Her campaign being short on funds?

If her campaign isn't short on funds then I am hard pressed to explain why she focusing so heavily on Texas now rather than fighting tooth and nail in WI. Getting blown out again there is most likely going to do more damage to her chances in TX/OH than her extra time campaigning in those states will repair.

If her campaign is short on funds then it makes no sense for Obama to bail her out by providing free media through numerous extra debates.

Bear in mind I have nothing against her as a candidate and will happily support her in the general if she wins. This is just calling it as I see it.

by Purplepeople 2008-02-13 06:59AM | 0 recs
Trailing candidates always want more debates...

The concept behind the ad is clever, but not original. It's not that the front runner is afraid, but why create an opening?

For example, from a 2006 Senate Race...

"Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has agreed to schedule two debates with her Republican rival, John Spencer, the former mayor of Yonkers... A Spencer campaign spokesman, Rob Ryan, said yesterday that his camp would like many more debates, but that Mrs. Clinton had declined."

Does that smack of Clinton being afraid to debate Spencer? Hardly.

The Clinton Campaign is in a bad spot with bad prospects in the next weeks. Why the Obama's campaign give them a chance to change the narrative?

by Benstrader 2008-02-13 07:18AM | 0 recs
short memory

Hillary did the same thing during her Senate run. Her opponent wanted to debate something like every week, and she ended up agreeing to one or two 1 hr debates.

Her desperation is obvious.  

by highgrade 2008-02-13 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

does it count as a win for hillary if she loses by only 10 points in either of these states?

by island empire 2008-02-13 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

your demographics don't mean much in Wisconsin. This is why:

it's next door to Illinois. The illinois ground game should be swelling into Wisconsin.

Illinois media makes it across much of southern Wisconsin, giving Obama a huge lift in terms of media coverage.

the polls have missed on the young and black counts to a fairly large degree. Wisconsin has both in large numbers.

momentum.

I'd be surprised to see anything anything under a 10% win for Obama.

by alex100 2008-02-13 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I'm voting for John McCain if Obama is the nominee. Voting for Obama would be an insult to my intelligence, my education and the value of hard work in life.

by bsavage 2008-02-13 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Good point!  Especially on the hard work, Obama is clearly a lazy bum, what with him rising from his silver spoon upbringing to become editor in chief of the harvard law review, U Chicago law professor, and U.S. Senator.

by snaktime 2008-02-13 06:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I take it then that your intelligence, education, and the value of your hard work lead you to prefer a candidate who wants to keep us in Iraq for 100 years, bomb Iran, is anti-choice and would appoint Scalia's to the Supreme Court, and doesn't give a damn about economic equality or a progressive tax system?  

If so, I question your intelligence, education, and the lessons you've learned from value of hard work.  You're also not a real Democrat if that's your approach.  

I, for one, will support whoever the Democratic nominee is.  Since, you know, I actually think it's important to stop the Bush/McCain policies of the last eight years.    

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Are you blind? Obama or Clinton is virtually guaranteed a win against McCain, so my vote for J-Mac is meaningless. If the general election was actually close then I would vote independent. I'm a Democratv and always will be, but as long as Obama is on any ballot I will never vote for him.

by bsavage 2008-02-13 07:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I don't follow your logic at all.  First, there's a good chance the election will be close.  Hillary actually loses to McCain in GE polls out right now.  Second, I fail to comprehend how you could vote for a man with the positions I outlined above.  The only answer I can come up with his blind, irrational hatred for Senator Obama.  Third, what independent are you going to vote for and what purpose does that serve exactly?  Lastly, Democrats tend to vote for Democrats.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Do you just not like the shape of his ears?  You can't be that much of a democrat if you would refuse to vote for him, just as much as you couldn't be that much of a democrat if you would refuse to vote for Hillary.

by kasjogren 2008-02-13 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii
How is my statement any different from the hordes of people who compared Clinton to the devil and a traitor to the Democratic Party and said that they would never vote for her even in the GE. You can't fucking tell me who to vote for. It's a free country and I definetely will vote for every other Democrat locally and statewide.
I want someone who actually has experience, but more inmportantly has guts to take on the Republicans and not comprise their beliefs like Obama says he will do. Democrats have been compromsing for the last 8 years. Where has that ever got us? Remember the Gang of 14?? Those judges are now on the federal bench!
I don't hate Obama, however he has made it obvious that he wants to compromise with the Republicans AGAIN! If "President Obama" is elected it will be just a Jimmy Carter Redux.
by bsavage 2008-02-13 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I'd have no respect for any Democrat who threatened to vote for McCain over Clinton or Obama.

There's not that much difference between HRC and BHO and a world of difference between both of them  and McCain.  

Can you imagine any of the primary candidates for our party voting for McCain over the nominee?  I can't.  I'd say no Democrat would, but there's always Lieberman I guess.

by mijita 2008-02-13 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Wow, you certainly are bitter and angry.  Remind me to never watch a sporting event with you in the off chance your team goes down by a goal you may reach out and punch me.

by kasjogren 2008-02-13 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Oh and btw:

"How is my statement any different from the hordes of people who compared Clinton to the devil and a traitor to the Democratic Party and said that they would never vote for her even in the GE. You can't fucking tell me who to vote for."

A) I never did that
B) I never did that

Way to rise above the fray.

by kasjogren 2008-02-13 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

That is a crazy statement in my opinion. First of all McCain is a formidable opponent. The reason is that people have already decided that he is a moderate and a hero. It will be very hard for the democrats to defeat that narrative because most people are not paying attention to every little political thing that happens (and the media will help keep that narrative intact). Now I think both Clinton and Obama can do it but it is not a given.

Second even if it is a forgone conclusion that the Democrats will take the Whitehouse that does not explain why you would vote for McCain. What is the logic of that. Just because the Democrats would win doesn't make McCain any more like Clinton. Right?

by evan108108 2008-02-13 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

If you vote for McCain and his 100 years war your intelligence and education are of doubtful practical use anyway.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-02-13 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

the hillary angst is quite pathetic. Anyone see the difference between this and when Edwards dropped out?

it's two worlds. The Edwards folks jumped back into the fray to support a democrat. The hillary folk are ready to jump on the mcCain ship!

by alex100 2008-02-13 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

As a long time supporter of JRE, all I can say is, the difference between the Edwards and Clinton folks at their precipice of defeat is  stunning.

by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-02-13 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Yeah, and frankly kind of sad.

by kasjogren 2008-02-13 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Let me get this straight your going to vote for McCain if Obama wins and yet you support HRC. "That don't make no kink of sense!" Really. Obama and Clinton are almost identical on the issues. McCain could not be more of a contrast.

You say Obama some how insults you intelligence. What do you mean by that? Obama insults your intelligence but McCain does not. Or do you think Obama is not smart? Or he is so smart that you feel threatened by him? What is it?

Listen I am not an Obama partizan but these kind of statements help no one. We can't get so blinded by our love for our favorite candidates that we loose site of the big picture. Both Clinton and Obama are pushing in the right direction and we need to get behind the winner and keep them on that path.

by evan108108 2008-02-13 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Apparently this is just a popularity game for you. Do you care about the issues at all, where Clinton and Obama are 99% the same and McCain is in another world entirely?

by animated 2008-02-13 07:18AM | 0 recs
What happens if Hillary ends up supporting Obama?

Will the Clinton supporters start to trash her as well?

by highgrade 2008-02-13 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I'm sure in 10 years time the thousands of young women who no longer have access to  the choice of safe and legal abortions will thank you for being so clever.

The thought of John McCain appointing the next Supreme Court justice should be enough to freeze the blood.

by mijita 2008-02-13 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I dont need your respect. Voting for Obamna is just like voting for Jimmy Carter. Carter and Obama are both idiots. I'm sure Charlie Crist is jumping up and down in FLorida so he can defeat Obama in 2012. There is nio way that I will ever vote for a loser.

by bsavage 2008-02-13 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

So long as you have your priorities straight.  It's just as well you don't need my respect.

by mijita 2008-02-13 08:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

clearly you're not very intelligent.

by rapcetera 2008-02-13 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Hillary isn't goin to win Wisconsin. The state holds an open primary and the independents will seal the deal for Mr. Obama. I think the goal for the Obama camp is to win Wisconsin by double-digits. This state will set the bar for Ohio.

P.S. I prefer Obama's healthcare plan over Hillarycare.

by Djneedle83 2008-02-13 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Yea, I basically think we are looking at whether she can keep it close. A double-digit win would not do it; but a 5 percent margin would do wonders.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-13 06:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

At this point a close loss for Hillary isn't enough unless Obama way overplays the expectations game. She needs a win.

The best news for her is that her losing streak might be broken by a final New Mexico count this week...it ain't much but when the bleeding is this bad, every little bit helps.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-02-13 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Hillarycare? Wow, did you climb out of Sean Hannity's ass?

by bsavage 2008-02-13 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Jerome, I usually don't agree with you, but this post has gone beyond believability. The idea that Clinton can overcome a deficit in Wisconsin, on top of what happend last night, in a matter of 6 days, is ridiculous. If you want Clinton to win it'd be best not to set her up too high of expectations. You're stature here has gone from political analyst to a pure clinton spin meister.

by mecarr 2008-02-13 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Big question:

"The mix is definitely there for Obama to win the state."

Who said that?

She's got an opening to exceed expecations.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-13 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Anything can happen and I agree with you that Wisconsin is a state she could still win.  I don't know enough about Hawaii to offer an informed opinion.  But I disagree with you that keeping it close helps her much.  I suspect the narrative, if she doesn't win before March 4th, is going to be all about 10 losses in a row.  That be silly, since it's all about delegates in reality, but nonetheless that's the story I would expect to read IF -- and it's definitely an 'if' -- he manages to win in Wisconsin & Hawaii.  

Anyway, should stay interesting.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 06:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

The problem math wise is this.  You can't exceed expectations any longer.  You need wins, and big ones at that.  Expectations on both sides are out the window at this point and are pretty meaningless this late in the game.

You don't need moral victories, you need actual victories.

by kasjogren 2008-02-13 07:24AM | 0 recs
Exceeding Expectations

is no longer the game.

Winning is. Period.

With each loss she looks less electable.

Each State that is a draw is in effect a win for Obama since he has the pledged delegate lead.

by fladem 2008-02-13 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Jerome isn't trying to seriously argue she is going to win WI. He is trying to set expectations so that a close result - which should be expected considering the demographics of the state - can be touted as a "it-is-not-over" comeback which they hope will kill the momentum narrative.

But I cannot understand for the life of me why she is not showing up there until Saturday. Ridiculous because she would have a shot at doing well. But conceding the state is another of those idiotic strategic blunders the "vetted and well-run" campaign of Clinton keep making in this campaign.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-02-13 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

haha..

bsavage is going to vote for John Mccain. I think that act is an insult to my intelligence.

by Djneedle83 2008-02-13 06:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

The truth about Hawaii is that no one knows what in the hell is going to happen there. People assume that Obama is going to win there because he was born there and Kucinich won 26% of the caucus vote there in 2004. There is no polling. There have been know visits aside from Obama's vacationing there back in Jan 2007. There's clearly upset potential in Hawaii, although I wouldn't stake too much on that prospect.

by blueflorida 2008-02-13 06:54AM | 0 recs
I don't think that Hillary

will take either Wisconsin or Hawaii.  

First of all, she isn't spending that much time in Wisconsin and gave her speech last night in Texas rather than Wisconsin.  Wisconsin voters note that.  

Hawaii is a caucus state and I am sure that Obama has organized that state extremely well as he has done in almost all of the other caucus states.

I think that Hillary will not win any states in February.

by puma 2008-02-13 06:55AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't think that Hillary

Hillary will be in Wisconsin on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

by Tove 2008-02-13 06:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Wisconsin could be competitive, though I imagine Obama has the edge.

On the other hand--Hawaii is where Obama was born and more importantly it is a caucus state, and Obama has been destorying Clinton in most of the caucus states. I don't see why Hawaii would be any different.

Clinton's firewall is in Ohio and Texas. If she flames out in those places I don't want to see any posts about how she will beat Obama in Pennsylvania, or worse yet how Wyoming demographics will help her get back into the race.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-02-13 06:55AM | 0 recs
I think....

Hillary has as much a chance in Hawaii as Bush did in 2004 when he sent Cheney out there.  Baracks half sister is Hawaiin.  She will be lucky if Hawaii doesn't vote like DC does.

And why is it that you are not posting a similar thread about how Hilary won't debate Obama in Ohio???  Funny, she only wants the free media when it supports her.

by jalby 2008-02-13 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

You have become such a shill for the Clintons that you are starting to lose credibility with me.

Most media outlets in the past couple days have mentioned or run pieces clearly stating that Wisconsin WAS a state that could both be favorable for either Clinton or Obama because they both have bases of support there. Expectations are slightly higher for Obama because he is on a roll but come on. We know they are going to try to pass a closer result than yesterday as a victory when it is obvious from the demographics the state will be close.

I will pass on you repeating the Clinton talking points and "just thought I would share that ad they just released".
Let's not pretend Clinton cares for debates for the sake of debates (if so, tell her to accept the Ohio one). She thinks she does better in that format and want to embarass him. Fair enough. But don't play the chickenhawk game. It is insulting.

And finally Obama won Asian-Americans big in Washington. So that much for your talking point. He is favored in Hawaii for favorite-son reason but where Clinton could keep things interesting is that the old-fashioned establishment there (with Inouye) support her and have organization in their back. That said, I don't see her winning HI.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-02-13 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Settle down.  Jerome hasn't made any secret of his preference, at this point, for Clinton.  But that doesn't mean his analysis is off base.  The point here is that Clinton could still win in these two states.  As an Obama supporter, I agree with that 100%.  Which, by the way, is all the more reason to work hard on Obama's behalf so that she doesn't get a 'W'.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Problem is, Jerome's analysis had Hillary edging Obama in Virginia, a state he won by 20+ points.

by PatriotAct1984 2008-02-13 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

The debates have become an extension of infotainment, not news, not substance.  You don't get any more policy in a one to two minute answer than you do in a rally speech.  You certainly get less than you do in a town hall Q&A session.  Even in the civil debates like California, you had Wolf salivating for a fight between the two and when they didn't go there a lot of viewers were disappointed.  

by Piuma 2008-02-13 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

As goes Hawaii so goes the nation?

What's funny is... why the 12+ small states won by Obama "don't count" and if Hillary loses by 3 in Hawaii its an upset???

I don't buy it- and think Obama is likely to win both.

It is down to Texas and Ohio- and it is likely HIllary will have to win BOTH to make this thing viable- winning 1 and then even winning PA (likely with Rendell's help) won't be enough.

If Obama has a pledged delegate lead great enough he can say "go ahead and seat MI and FL- see if I care" and still be ahead he's got the nomination.

by jgkojak 2008-02-13 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I'm not so sure that PA is locked up for HRC.  Rendell is very popular in and around Philly.  But Obama is going to draw an awful lot of support from that area, despite those voters personal approval of Rendell.  Clinton remains the favorite there, no doubt, but I wouldn't be surprised if he closes the gap there going forward.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii
Why do you link approvingly to an ad attacking another dem for not appearing on Fox?
That is the debate Sen. Clinton is talking about.
by gil 2008-02-13 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

That's actually a really interesting point that I hadn't thought about.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

It's not a good point. The debate in question would be aired on an ABC affiliate. Not FOX.

by Tove 2008-02-13 07:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii
the next to scheduled debats:
2/21 - Obama/Clinton on CNN
2/26 - Obama/Clinton on NBC
by gil 2008-02-13 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

No, no. I'm talking about the debate in Wisconsin that Hillary has agreed to, but Obama has not. It would be aired on ABC. You seemed to say that it would have been on FOX, which isn't true.

by Tove 2008-02-13 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Then I stand corrected.  Thanks for the info.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-13 07:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I think its true
The Big O should be getting all kinds of kudos for saying "not on fox"

This whole to "debate or not to debate" is just a straw man and it covers up the fact that Clinton is running attack ads agianst a Dem

by gil 2008-02-13 07:22AM | 0 recs
Your contortions are getting tiresome Jerome

I don't know what the expectations are for Clinton, going into Wisconsin and Hawaii, but they've gotta be pretty low. Believe it or not, there could be an opening for Clinton in both states.

So let me see if I've got this right:

1)  Hillary is likely to lose her 9th and 10th in a row.  Therefore:
2)  This is good for Clinton because she has the opportunity to make a dramatic comeback. (wait but I thought she was still ahead?)

So what now small caucus states like Hawaii count?  What only because it has a lot of Asian-Americans?  What's the exact reason this time?  My head is spinning.

And the he's afraid to debate her comment is ridiculous.  You know politics.  Don't play dumb.  When you are losing, you need lots of debates to try and change the dynamics of the race.  If Obama had agreed to more than the 2 debates it would have been a terrible tactical decision and you know it.

by Tim Hendricks 2008-02-13 07:01AM | 0 recs
Why doesn't he want to debate?

Clinton needs to debate because the animosity of the media makes it impossible for her to get a positive message to a wide audience of voters in any other way. Obama knows this -- he knows that a debate gives her campaign a communication opportunity that she would not otherwise have. He also knows that she has consistently performed better in debates than he is.

by esmense 2008-02-13 07:02AM | 0 recs
Why doesn't he want to debate?

Oops. that should read "He also knows that she consistently performs better in debates than he does."

by esmense 2008-02-13 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii
Trip down memory lane regarding Clinton's sudden urge for debates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_BxK6Jcf 6E&eurl
by Benjaminomeara 2008-02-13 07:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

There are no more recent polls in Wisconsin then? Because if this is all there is, I think it's sort of wierd that a state that--as Obamacans are arguing--is such a "slam dunk" for Obama would have him leading by so few points, practically within a margin of error.

He's failed to make his case if that's all he's got; the triumphalism may be a little premature.

by Tennessean 2008-02-13 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

The party set the rules in Michigan and Florida and every candidate agreed to them.  If some back room deal making allows those votes to suddenly count for HRC then it is time for me to take a hike.  Hillary had surrogates, unions and etc all campaigning for her in Florida while pretending to not be there.......

by DemoDan 2008-02-13 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

You are overestimating hillary's appeal over Obama.  

All of her demographic wins dissapear the more people know about OBama.

by TerraFF 2008-02-13 07:16AM | 0 recs
Wisconsin & they're samoan not chinese

GOD DAMNED IT PEOPLE!!!!

the people in hawaii are samoans, not chinese/japanese.

hillary clinton has been getting large amounts of support from the chinese community.

samoans, are not chinsese people.... seriously.

by Lazeriath 2008-02-13 07:18AM | 0 recs
they're samoan not chinese

So, what's your point? That Samoans are a natural Obama constituency?

Clinton won America Samoa.

by blueflorida 2008-02-13 07:27AM | 0 recs
Re: they're samoan not chinese

no, that citing her winning asians as plus for hawaii is completely retarded, because she has a long standing connection with the chinese, and exactly no connection with the samoans.

by Lazeriath 2008-02-13 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: they're samoan not chinese

because she has a long standing connection with the chinese, and exactly no connection with the samoans

Hmmm...I did not know this. Do tell more.

by blueflorida 2008-02-13 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: they're samoan not chinese

you're kidding right?

by Lazeriath 2008-02-13 07:46AM | 0 recs
They're samoan not chinese

Not true.  There are a ton of Americans of Chinese and Japanese descent in Hawai`i.

That's one reason the Japanese in Hawaii were not interned during WWII like they were in California.  They were about 1/3 the population; it simply wasn't feasible.

by randym77 2008-02-13 07:38AM | 0 recs
Mostly Japanese actually
The people of Hawaii are about 35% Japanese American, roughly 40% white, and 25% a mixture of Native Hawaiian, Chinese, Korean, Filipino, and Samoan (however most of the children, including my kids, and young adults in Hawaii are of mixed racial decent).
My wife and I have been driving around with an Obama sticker on our car for over a year now, but I haven't seen a Clinton sticker yet. I am deeply involved in my wife's Buddhist temple group, and have been congratulated a lot lately for backing Obama right from the beginning.
Unfortunately I am not a registered Democrat, nor am I even registered to vote in Hawaii (I'm registered in my home state, and already voted there), so I won't be able to caucus here, but I will try to give updates of what's happening here.
So far it appears to be overwhelmingly supportive of the native son, Obama, but in a closed caucus who knows.
There is an African American Population here, but it is very small. However, there are a lot of African American's here that are in the Military, and though they can't vote here (unless they make Hawaii their residence), they are vocal in the community.
Another point; I get e-mails, letters, and phone calls from both the Clinton and Obama campaigns (because I have supported both), and on Super Tuesday I only got an invitation to attend a party to view the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses results from the Obama campaign.
To the best of my knowledge the Clinton campaign doesn't have much of a presence here.
Hawaii is also a very young state.
by fetboy 2008-02-13 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Mostly Japanese actually

Hawai`i is not particularly young.  Lot of retirees, though not as much as Florida.

Hawai`i Demographics

It also has a breakdown of ethnic groups.  It's a real melting pot.  16% Japanese and 14% Filipino are the two largest Asian groups.  Chinese is 4.7%.  Samoan is only 1.3%.

So 51% of the population is "Asian or Pacific Islander," and out of that, only 1.3% is Samoan.

by randym77 2008-02-13 08:04AM | 0 recs
Actually... Japanese

Hawaii is 1/3 Japanese and Filipino. Only 16% Polynesian (Samoans).

But 100% American!

by JoeCoaster 2008-02-13 07:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I love how Hillary thinks she can still set the rules for the campaign.

We must have one debate a week! Except not on MSNBC, because they are mean. Fox is OK though.

by animated 2008-02-13 07:25AM | 0 recs
Jerome is working it.

..it smacks a bit like he's afraid to debate her

This is a tried and true 2nd place campaign tactic and Jerome knows it. I was wondering how Hillary was going to go negative (since she had to try something). "Afraid of debating me" is a good one. It's not really dirty so there will not be much blowback.

It's a good sign (for him) if that's all they got to throw at Obama.  

by JoeCoaster 2008-02-13 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

I think Obama will cruise in Hawai`i, since he was born there and all.  Yes, there are a ton of Asian-Americans in Hawai`i, but they don't have a lot in common with the Asian-Americans on the mainland. I think it's a mistake to assume they'll act like mainlanders.

I hope Hillary at least tries in Wisconsin.  I was a bit perturbed that she flew to Texas yesterday instead.

by randym77 2008-02-13 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

MYDD sure has gone down hill since the progressive brains moved over to openleft.

Now, with this kind of shallow Hillary wishful thinking, MYDD comes off as a DLC/Blue Dog Democrat advocate.

No thanks.

by katmandu 2008-02-13 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

There appear to be some open positions on the HRC campaign staff -- are you applying?  

The point about debates is simply ridiculous.  They've debated some 18 times at this point and will have two more prior to 3/4.  Please tell me that you honestly believe HRC would be open to debating Obama this week if there roles were reversed?  If you can't would it be lack of courage on her part?

I understand supporting your candidate and there are ways for her to come back (although I don't understand the mythical drama surrounding her "comebacks" in NH and CA --  how does a front-runner comeback exactly?), but intellectual honesty on some of these points would be appreciated by the readers.

by caprog 2008-02-13 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii
It will depend a lot on how the media narrative plays.
While watching CNBC a trader mentioned that people could start thinking about buying PHARMA stocks now that it looks like Hillary will lose. Here we have a Wall Street guy saying that Obama wont be tough on PHARMA. True or not this background noise is much harder for people to conciously process. Will we see some more of this.
More overtly will the general media narrative be more of putting the final nail in the Clinton coffin or will there be  the start of knocking the bloom of the rosy Obama. How that plays over the next several days is something to watch.
by Judeling 2008-02-13 07:40AM | 0 recs
Sad

Really seems like Jerome, Jonathan, and company are trying to throw things to the wall and see what sticks.

The Obama momentum continues up until March 4. Then we will see what happens.

by NJPolitico84 2008-02-13 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

My friends - I implore you. We need to restore level of discourse here to a more scholarly and scientific approach.

If we get our emotions out of the way and analyze the WI and HI primaries from an entirely objective point of view, using all the tools and data available to us, the conclusion is inescapable:

Obama will win based on one of the most reliable indicators of advanced electoral quantum theory:

Monteshuster's Revenge!

by obsessed 2008-02-13 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

This is the kind of issue that just doesn't matter to voters, particularly since the candidates have debated so much already.

by mainelib 2008-02-13 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Interesting: Hillary Clinton has been telling America that she is the most qualified candidate for president based on her 'record,' which she says includes her eight years in the White House as First Lady - or 'co-president' - and her seven years in the Senate. Here is a reminder of what that record includes: - As First Lady, Hillary assumed authority over Health Care Reform, a process that cost the taxpayers over $13 million. She told both Bill Bradley and Patrick Moynihan, key votes needed to pass her legislation, that she would 'demonize' anyone who opposed it. But it was opposed; she couldn't even get it to a vote in a Congress controlled by her own party. (And in the next election, her party lost control of both the House and Senate.) - Hillary assumed authority over selecting a female Attorney General. Her first two recommendations, Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood, were forced to withdraw their names from consideration. She then chose Janet Reno. Janet Reno has since been described by Bill himself as 'my worst mistake.' - Hillary recommended Lani Guanier for head of the Civil Rights Commission. When Guanier's radical views became known, her name had to be withdrawn. - Hillary recommended her former law partners, Web Hubbell, Vince Foster, and William Kennedy for positions in the Justice Department, White House staff, and the Treasury, respectively. Hubbell was later imprisoned, Foster committed suicide, and Kennedy was forced to resign. - Hillary also recommended a close friend of the Clintons, Craig Livingstone, for the position of director of White House security. When Livingstone was investigated for the improper access of up to 900 FBI files of Clinton enemies (?Filegate?) and the widespread use of drugs by White House staff, both Hillary and her husband denied knowing him. FBI agent Dennis Sculimbrene confirmed in a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in 1996, both the drug use and Hillary's involvement in hiring Livingstone. After that, the FBI closed its White House Liaison Office, after serving seven presidents for over thirty years. - In order to open ?slots? in the White House for her friends the Thomasons (to whom millions of dollars in travel contracts could be awarded), Hillary had the entire staff of the White House Travel Office fired; they were reported to the FBI for 'gross mismanagement' and their reputations ruined. After a thirty-month investigation, only one, Billy Dale, was charged with a crime - mixing personal money with White House funds when he cashed checks. The jury acquitted him in less than two hours. - Another of Hil lary's assumed duties was directing the 'bimbo eruption squad' and scandal defense: ---- She urged her husband not to settle the Paula Jones lawsuit. ---- She refused to release the Whitewater documents, which led to the appointment of Ken Starr as Special Prosecutor. After $80 million dollars of taxpayer money was spent, Starr's investigation led to Monica Lewinsky, which led to Bill lying about and later admitting his affairs. ---- Then they had to settle with Paula Jones after all. ---- And Bill lost his law license for lying to the grand jury ---- And Bill was impeached by the House. ---- And Hillary almost got herself indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice (she avoided it mostly because she repeated, 'I do not recall,' 'I have no recollection,' and 'I don't know' 56 times under oath). - Hillary wrote 'It Takes a Village,' demonstrating her Socialist viewpoint. - Hill ary decided to seek election to the Senate in a state she had never lived in. Her husband pardoned FALN terrorists in order to get Latino support and the New Square Hassidim to get Jewish support. Hillary also had Bill pardon her brother's clients, for a small fee, to get financial support. - Then Hillary left the White House, but later had to return $200,000 in White House furniture, china, and artwork she had stolen. - In the campaign for the Senate, Hillary played the 'woman card' by portraying her opponent (Lazio) as a bully picking on her. - Hillary's husband further protected her by asking the National Archives to withhold from the public until 2012 many records of their time in the White House, including much of Hillary's correspondence and her calendars. (There are ongoing lawsuits to force the release of those records.) - As the junior Senator from New York, Hillary has passed no major legislation. She has deferred to the senior Senator (Schumer) to tend to the needs of New Yorkers, even on the hot issue of medical problems of workers involved in the cleanup of Ground Zero after 9/11. - Hillary's one notable vote; supporting the plan to invade Iraq, she has since disavowed. Quite a resume?. Sounds more like an organized crime family?s rap sheet.

please read the following information gathered from the Library of Congress. Feel free to check these records for yourself; better still, read a little more, and try and stay current before posting assinine comments: Clinton v. Obama on Legislative Experience: Senator Clinton, who has served only one full term (6yrs.), and another year campaigning, has managed to author and pass into law, (20) twenty pieces of legislation in her first six years. These bills can be found on the website of the Library of Congress (www.thomas.loc.gov), but to save you trouble, I'll post them here for you: 1. Establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site. 2. Support the goals and ideals of Better Hearing and Speech Month. 3. Recognize the Ellis Island Medal of Honor. 4. Name courthouse after Thurgood Marshall. 5. Name courthouse after James L. Watson. 6. Name post office after Jonn A. O'Shea. 7. Designate Aug. 7, 2003, as National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 8. Support the goals and ideals of National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 9. Honor the life and legacy of Alexander Hamilton on the bicentennial of his death. 10. Congratulate the Syracuse Univ. Orange Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 11. Congratulate the Le Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 12. Establish the 225th Anniversary of the American Revolution Commemorative Program. 13. Name post office after Sergeant Riayan A. Tejeda. 14. Honor Shirley Chisholm for her service to the nation and express condolences on her death. 15. Honor John J. Downing, Brian Fahey, and Harry Ford, firefighters who lost their lives on duty. Only five of Clinton's bills are, more substantive. 16. Extend period of unemployment assistance to victims of 9/11. 17. Pay for city projects in response to 9/11 18. Assist landmine victims in other countries. 19. Assist family caregivers in accessing affordable respite care. 20. Designate part of the National Forest System in Puerto Rico as protected in the wilderness preservation system. There you have it, the fact's straight from the Senate Record. Now, I would post those of Obama's, but the list is too substantive, so I'll mainly categorize. During the first (8) eight months of his elected service he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs and many others. His first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These inculded **the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law), **The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, (became law), **The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, passed the Senate, **The 2007 Government Ethics Bill, (became law), **The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, (In committee), and many more. In all since he entered the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096. An impressive record, for someone who supposedly has no legislative record. . . . My last point: Obama needs name recognition, he needs to be among the people, so people feel like they have access to him. HRC's debate challenge is more about the fact that her campaign is running low on money and she gets free air-time without spending anything. Would you give up the chance to see 20,000 voters up close and personal to be on a televised debate? No way! Obama, stick to your guns. Debate on your terms, not Hillary's! Go Obama 2008!

by chatters71 2008-02-13 08:01AM | 0 recs
afraid to debate... really?

come on man.
Clinton's campaign suggested a debate every WEEK, I love this stuff and that's too much even for me.

That, yet again, is a talking point straight from the Clinton campaign though.

It is really amazing how much you downplay Obama's momentum and overplay Clinton's chances or dissatisfaction with a candidate that clearly has a forward rising trajectory.

Clinton won California because the Clintons are ADORED here, and we have a huge swath of low information voters that didn't know Obama.

Obama had the movement, but not the numbers here, Clinton did.

Debate performance didn't swing it.

I really do love how everything is good news or an opportunity for Clinton.

I'm sure they could use your optimism in the campaign, and hey, maybe you could make a few $$$ from it eh?

-C.

by neutron 2008-02-13 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Gulp ... and chatters71 is on OUR side. Imagine what McCain's new BFF Karl will do with that first paragraph.

But to play HRC's advocate, all that is powder that hasn't exactly been kept dry.

What I find most telling is the comparison of significant legislation introduced.

by obsessed 2008-02-13 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

open left has an image map of county by county vote percentages per candidate.

it's not hard to see the massive amount of support coming from northern illinois. This type of support should and will bleed into Wisconsin.

http://img165.imageshack.us/my.php?image =countiesuz0.gif

by alex100 2008-02-13 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

err. I should've said that they have a link to this graph.

by alex100 2008-02-13 08:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

For those of you who think Obama is inevitable -

Analyzing the recent Obama wins, Jay Cost has this to say:

"Given the voting coalitions that have formed over the last month and a half, Clinton never really stood a chance in any of them. African Americans drove Obama's victory in Louisiana. In the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, African Americans combined with wealthy whites to secure him victory. In Maine, Nebraska, and Washington - Obama took advantage of largely homogenous white populations and caucus contests to secure victory.

In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton's losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week.
...
All in all, this implies a rough parity from here until the end of the primary season. Approximately speaking, neither candidate seems to have an advantage in the remaining contests. So, my suggestion to readers is not to get caught up in the "Obama is inevitable" storyline. Minimally, we should all remember how well the "Clinton is inevitable" storyline worked out five months ago!"

Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics Horse Race Blog, 2/13/08

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/02/the_democratic_race_movin g_for.html

by suskin 2008-02-13 08:41AM | 0 recs
Hawaii

Jerome's comments on Hawai'i are not as wacky as many here think. I say that because I lived there for 10 years, and worked as a news producer there. Yes his hometown status plays really big there, he went to high school there, and his parents met at UH, and he is supported by Rep. Neil Abercrombie.
 What you may not know is that Punahou H.S. (where Obama went) is a private, rich-kids school. Believe me, for the average person in Hawai'i the word "Punahou" conjures an instant impression, and not necessarily a positive one. However, since Punahou is also synomous with "white" it doesn't work against him that hard.
 Clinton has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye ( a much bigger deal than Neil Abercrombie by a long shot) who is the state's top Democrat, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa along with the Hawai'i Government Employees Association (huge) and other labor unions. If you are wondering where Jerome's hope for Clinton comes from, look no further than this paragraph. Those 3 items are very important in Hawai'i politics.
  The lack of any polls for Hawai'i makes it hard to say for sure, but I believe Obama still has a big advantage because 1-its a caucus, and 2-he has poured a lot of money into it and 3- he isn't white (haole).
 Obama's mixed-race heritage is big advantage with the average Hawai'i voter, imo.  
 But acknowledging the fact that Clinton does have some important support in the state does not mean Jerome, or anyone else has lost their mind. It simply means they have read about the state a little, and so know labor unions are powerful there.  

by cdo 2008-02-13 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

i'm a little confused on this "afraid to debate" argument as well.  typically, the candidate who is behind is the one "clamoring" for more debates.  it's free televised publicity.  

also, Obama has agreed already to two more debates.  it's baffling why he would be beholden to debating Hillary Clinton once a week.  that's, frankly, overkill.  

i will agree that neither WI nor HI are "in the bag" for Obama, and that he should not approach any of the upcoming states as such.  his campaign has, so far, not taken any state for granted, with the possible exception of SC.

by fightinfilipino 2008-02-13 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

She's adopted a familiar strategy of a fringe candidate: call for weekly debates and give your website address every chance you get.

by Piuma 2008-02-13 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin & Hawaii

Engame for HRC.

I smell desperation and more defeats comming to her in both Wisconsin and Hawaii.

This ad was so lame!!

by Djneedle83 2008-02-13 11:00AM | 0 recs

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