This post has shocked me.  Jerome thinks Hillary has openings in states where she will go on to get trounced in?  I am shocked i tell you.

I await the "Don't count Hillary out in Mississippi & Wyoming" Thread with breathless abandon.

Yes, got him exactly where they want them.

In the horizon, speeding away.

let's see her shimmy her way in through that opening and get a good fraction of the delegates. She sure can use them at this point.

Congressman Neil Abercrombie is supporting Obama.  He knew and went to college with Barack's father, Barack Sr.  

Obama doesn't have time to debate Clinton.  That ship has sailed.  Obama has to focus on McCain now.

I live in WI, Jerome.  I have lived in Green bay, madison, Rhinelander, and Lake Mills.

While I'll agree that WI is not a "slam dunk" for Obama, the deomgraphics of the state, as well as it's progressive nature AND it's robust college system (best in the land!) clearly give Obama an edge.  She'll need to beat him outright here by more than 5 points to regain any real momentum.

As for the debates.  I can't believe I am reading you pose this question, given your status as a political observer.  Obama has NO reason to debate her, as he is no longer on the dark sie of the moon.  He is winning the momentum.  The endless carping by Hillary makes her look like a desperate challenger, and you know it.  

HRC may win HI outright...but try building a comeback narrative on THAT win.

Mqark my words, Jerome, the drumbeat that began last night for her to step down for the good of the party will increase and grow very loud after next tuesday...the only question left is whether or not she will hear it or not.

The longer she goes the more she risks forever damaiging the Clinton brand....and NO ONE...even me as an obama guy wants THAT.

... to a campaign that is struggling right now to stay competitive in advertising? It seems like a pretty sound tactical decision.

does it count as a win for hillary if she loses by only 10 points in either of these states?

your demographics don't mean much in Wisconsin. This is why:

it's next door to Illinois. The illinois ground game should be swelling into Wisconsin.

Illinois media makes it across much of southern Wisconsin, giving Obama a huge lift in terms of media coverage.

the polls have missed on the young and black counts to a fairly large degree. Wisconsin has both in large numbers.

momentum.

I'd be surprised to see anything anything under a 10% win for Obama.

I'm voting for John McCain if Obama is the nominee. Voting for Obama would be an insult to my intelligence, my education and the value of hard work in life.

Hillary isn't goin to win Wisconsin. The state holds an open primary and the independents will seal the deal for Mr. Obama. I think the goal for the Obama camp is to win Wisconsin by double-digits. This state will set the bar for Ohio.

P.S. I prefer Obama's healthcare plan over Hillarycare.

Jerome, I usually don't agree with you, but this post has gone beyond believability. The idea that Clinton can overcome a deficit in Wisconsin, on top of what happend last night, in a matter of 6 days, is ridiculous. If you want Clinton to win it'd be best not to set her up too high of expectations. You're stature here has gone from political analyst to a pure clinton spin meister.

haha..

bsavage is going to vote for John Mccain. I think that act is an insult to my intelligence.

The truth about Hawaii is that no one knows what in the hell is going to happen there. People assume that Obama is going to win there because he was born there and Kucinich won 26% of the caucus vote there in 2004. There is no polling. There have been know visits aside from Obama's vacationing there back in Jan 2007. There's clearly upset potential in Hawaii, although I wouldn't stake too much on that prospect.

will take either Wisconsin or Hawaii.  

First of all, she isn't spending that much time in Wisconsin and gave her speech last night in Texas rather than Wisconsin.  Wisconsin voters note that.  

Hawaii is a caucus state and I am sure that Obama has organized that state extremely well as he has done in almost all of the other caucus states.

I think that Hillary will not win any states in February.

Wisconsin could be competitive, though I imagine Obama has the edge.

On the other hand--Hawaii is where Obama was born and more importantly it is a caucus state, and Obama has been destorying Clinton in most of the caucus states. I don't see why Hawaii would be any different.

Clinton's firewall is in Ohio and Texas. If she flames out in those places I don't want to see any posts about how she will beat Obama in Pennsylvania, or worse yet how Wyoming demographics will help her get back into the race.

Hillary has as much a chance in Hawaii as Bush did in 2004 when he sent Cheney out there.  Baracks half sister is Hawaiin.  She will be lucky if Hawaii doesn't vote like DC does.

And why is it that you are not posting a similar thread about how Hilary won't debate Obama in Ohio???  Funny, she only wants the free media when it supports her.

You have become such a shill for the Clintons that you are starting to lose credibility with me.

Most media outlets in the past couple days have mentioned or run pieces clearly stating that Wisconsin WAS a state that could both be favorable for either Clinton or Obama because they both have bases of support there. Expectations are slightly higher for Obama because he is on a roll but come on. We know they are going to try to pass a closer result than yesterday as a victory when it is obvious from the demographics the state will be close.

I will pass on you repeating the Clinton talking points and "just thought I would share that ad they just released".
Let's not pretend Clinton cares for debates for the sake of debates (if so, tell her to accept the Ohio one). She thinks she does better in that format and want to embarass him. Fair enough. But don't play the chickenhawk game. It is insulting.

And finally Obama won Asian-Americans big in Washington. So that much for your talking point. He is favored in Hawaii for favorite-son reason but where Clinton could keep things interesting is that the old-fashioned establishment there (with Inouye) support her and have organization in their back. That said, I don't see her winning HI.

The debates have become an extension of infotainment, not news, not substance.  You don't get any more policy in a one to two minute answer than you do in a rally speech.  You certainly get less than you do in a town hall Q&A session.  Even in the civil debates like California, you had Wolf salivating for a fight between the two and when they didn't go there a lot of viewers were disappointed.  

As goes Hawaii so goes the nation?

What's funny is... why the 12+ small states won by Obama "don't count" and if Hillary loses by 3 in Hawaii its an upset???

I don't buy it- and think Obama is likely to win both.

It is down to Texas and Ohio- and it is likely HIllary will have to win BOTH to make this thing viable- winning 1 and then even winning PA (likely with Rendell's help) won't be enough.

If Obama has a pledged delegate lead great enough he can say "go ahead and seat MI and FL- see if I care" and still be ahead he's got the nomination.

I don't know what the expectations are for Clinton, going into Wisconsin and Hawaii, but they've gotta be pretty low. Believe it or not, there could be an opening for Clinton in both states.

1)  Hillary is likely to lose her 9th and 10th in a row.  Therefore:
2)  This is good for Clinton because she has the opportunity to make a dramatic comeback. (wait but I thought she was still ahead?)

So what now small caucus states like Hawaii count?  What only because it has a lot of Asian-Americans?  What's the exact reason this time?  My head is spinning.

And the he's afraid to debate her comment is ridiculous.  You know politics.  Don't play dumb.  When you are losing, you need lots of debates to try and change the dynamics of the race.  If Obama had agreed to more than the 2 debates it would have been a terrible tactical decision and you know it.

Clinton needs to debate because the animosity of the media makes it impossible for her to get a positive message to a wide audience of voters in any other way. Obama knows this -- he knows that a debate gives her campaign a communication opportunity that she would not otherwise have. He also knows that she has consistently performed better in debates than he is.

Oops. that should read "He also knows that she consistently performs better in debates than he does."

There are no more recent polls in Wisconsin then? Because if this is all there is, I think it's sort of wierd that a state that--as Obamacans are arguing--is such a "slam dunk" for Obama would have him leading by so few points, practically within a margin of error.

He's failed to make his case if that's all he's got; the triumphalism may be a little premature.

The party set the rules in Michigan and Florida and every candidate agreed to them.  If some back room deal making allows those votes to suddenly count for HRC then it is time for me to take a hike.  Hillary had surrogates, unions and etc all campaigning for her in Florida while pretending to not be there.......

You are overestimating hillary's appeal over Obama.  

All of her demographic wins dissapear the more people know about OBama.

GOD DAMNED IT PEOPLE!!!!

the people in hawaii are samoans, not chinese/japanese.

hillary clinton has been getting large amounts of support from the chinese community.

samoans, are not chinsese people.... seriously.

I love how Hillary thinks she can still set the rules for the campaign.

We must have one debate a week! Except not on MSNBC, because they are mean. Fox is OK though.

I think Obama will cruise in Hawai`i, since he was born there and all.  Yes, there are a ton of Asian-Americans in Hawai`i, but they don't have a lot in common with the Asian-Americans on the mainland. I think it's a mistake to assume they'll act like mainlanders.

I hope Hillary at least tries in Wisconsin.  I was a bit perturbed that she flew to Texas yesterday instead.

MYDD sure has gone down hill since the progressive brains moved over to openleft.

Now, with this kind of shallow Hillary wishful thinking, MYDD comes off as a DLC/Blue Dog Democrat advocate.

No thanks.

There appear to be some open positions on the HRC campaign staff -- are you applying?  

The point about debates is simply ridiculous.  They've debated some 18 times at this point and will have two more prior to 3/4.  Please tell me that you honestly believe HRC would be open to debating Obama this week if there roles were reversed?  If you can't would it be lack of courage on her part?

I understand supporting your candidate and there are ways for her to come back (although I don't understand the mythical drama surrounding her "comebacks" in NH and CA --  how does a front-runner comeback exactly?), but intellectual honesty on some of these points would be appreciated by the readers.

Really seems like Jerome, Jonathan, and company are trying to throw things to the wall and see what sticks.

The Obama momentum continues up until March 4. Then we will see what happens.

My friends - I implore you. We need to restore level of discourse here to a more scholarly and scientific approach.

If we get our emotions out of the way and analyze the WI and HI primaries from an entirely objective point of view, using all the tools and data available to us, the conclusion is inescapable:

Obama will win based on one of the most reliable indicators of advanced electoral quantum theory:

Monteshuster's Revenge!

This is the kind of issue that just doesn't matter to voters, particularly since the candidates have debated so much already.

Interesting: Hillary Clinton has been telling America that she is the most qualified candidate for president based on her 'record,' which she says includes her eight years in the White House as First Lady - or 'co-president' - and her seven years in the Senate. Here is a reminder of what that record includes: - As First Lady, Hillary assumed authority over Health Care Reform, a process that cost the taxpayers over $13 million. She told both Bill Bradley and Patrick Moynihan, key votes needed to pass her legislation, that she would 'demonize' anyone who opposed it. But it was opposed; she couldn't even get it to a vote in a Congress controlled by her own party. (And in the next election, her party lost control of both the House and Senate.) - Hillary assumed authority over selecting a female Attorney General. Her first two recommendations, Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood, were forced to withdraw their names from consideration. She then chose Janet Reno. Janet Reno has since been described by Bill himself as 'my worst mistake.' - Hillary recommended Lani Guanier for head of the Civil Rights Commission. When Guanier's radical views became known, her name had to be withdrawn. - Hillary recommended her former law partners, Web Hubbell, Vince Foster, and William Kennedy for positions in the Justice Department, White House staff, and the Treasury, respectively. Hubbell was later imprisoned, Foster committed suicide, and Kennedy was forced to resign. - Hillary also recommended a close friend of the Clintons, Craig Livingstone, for the position of director of White House security. When Livingstone was investigated for the improper access of up to 900 FBI files of Clinton enemies (?Filegate?) and the widespread use of drugs by White House staff, both Hillary and her husband denied knowing him. FBI agent Dennis Sculimbrene confirmed in a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in 1996, both the drug use and Hillary's involvement in hiring Livingstone. After that, the FBI closed its White House Liaison Office, after serving seven presidents for over thirty years. - In order to open ?slots? in the White House for her friends the Thomasons (to whom millions of dollars in travel contracts could be awarded), Hillary had the entire staff of the White House Travel Office fired; they were reported to the FBI for 'gross mismanagement' and their reputations ruined. After a thirty-month investigation, only one, Billy Dale, was charged with a crime - mixing personal money with White House funds when he cashed checks. The jury acquitted him in less than two hours. - Another of Hil lary's assumed duties was directing the 'bimbo eruption squad' and scandal defense: ---- She urged her husband not to settle the Paula Jones lawsuit. ---- She refused to release the Whitewater documents, which led to the appointment of Ken Starr as Special Prosecutor. After $80 million dollars of taxpayer money was spent, Starr's investigation led to Monica Lewinsky, which led to Bill lying about and later admitting his affairs. ---- Then they had to settle with Paula Jones after all. ---- And Bill lost his law license for lying to the grand jury ---- And Bill was impeached by the House. ---- And Hillary almost got herself indicted for perjury and obstruction of justice (she avoided it mostly because she repeated, 'I do not recall,' 'I have no recollection,' and 'I don't know' 56 times under oath). - Hillary wrote 'It Takes a Village,' demonstrating her Socialist viewpoint. - Hill ary decided to seek election to the Senate in a state she had never lived in. Her husband pardoned FALN terrorists in order to get Latino support and the New Square Hassidim to get Jewish support. Hillary also had Bill pardon her brother's clients, for a small fee, to get financial support. - Then Hillary left the White House, but later had to return $200,000 in White House furniture, china, and artwork she had stolen. - In the campaign for the Senate, Hillary played the 'woman card' by portraying her opponent (Lazio) as a bully picking on her. - Hillary's husband further protected her by asking the National Archives to withhold from the public until 2012 many records of their time in the White House, including much of Hillary's correspondence and her calendars. (There are ongoing lawsuits to force the release of those records.) - As the junior Senator from New York, Hillary has passed no major legislation. She has deferred to the senior Senator (Schumer) to tend to the needs of New Yorkers, even on the hot issue of medical problems of workers involved in the cleanup of Ground Zero after 9/11. - Hillary's one notable vote; supporting the plan to invade Iraq, she has since disavowed. Quite a resume?. Sounds more like an organized crime family?s rap sheet.

please read the following information gathered from the Library of Congress. Feel free to check these records for yourself; better still, read a little more, and try and stay current before posting assinine comments: Clinton v. Obama on Legislative Experience: Senator Clinton, who has served only one full term (6yrs.), and another year campaigning, has managed to author and pass into law, (20) twenty pieces of legislation in her first six years. These bills can be found on the website of the Library of Congress (www.thomas.loc.gov), but to save you trouble, I'll post them here for you: 1. Establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site. 2. Support the goals and ideals of Better Hearing and Speech Month. 3. Recognize the Ellis Island Medal of Honor. 4. Name courthouse after Thurgood Marshall. 5. Name courthouse after James L. Watson. 6. Name post office after Jonn A. O'Shea. 7. Designate Aug. 7, 2003, as National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 8. Support the goals and ideals of National Purple Heart Recognition Day. 9. Honor the life and legacy of Alexander Hamilton on the bicentennial of his death. 10. Congratulate the Syracuse Univ. Orange Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 11. Congratulate the Le Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship. 12. Establish the 225th Anniversary of the American Revolution Commemorative Program. 13. Name post office after Sergeant Riayan A. Tejeda. 14. Honor Shirley Chisholm for her service to the nation and express condolences on her death. 15. Honor John J. Downing, Brian Fahey, and Harry Ford, firefighters who lost their lives on duty. Only five of Clinton's bills are, more substantive. 16. Extend period of unemployment assistance to victims of 9/11. 17. Pay for city projects in response to 9/11 18. Assist landmine victims in other countries. 19. Assist family caregivers in accessing affordable respite care. 20. Designate part of the National Forest System in Puerto Rico as protected in the wilderness preservation system. There you have it, the fact's straight from the Senate Record. Now, I would post those of Obama's, but the list is too substantive, so I'll mainly categorize. During the first (8) eight months of his elected service he sponsored over 820 bills. He introduced 233 regarding healthcare reform, 125 on poverty and public assistance, 112 crime fighting bills, 97 economic bills, 60 human rights and anti-discrimination bills, 21 ethics reform bills, 15 gun control, 6 veterans affairs and many others. His first year in the U.S. Senate, he authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These inculded **the Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law), **The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act, (became law), **The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, passed the Senate, **The 2007 Government Ethics Bill, (became law), **The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill, (In committee), and many more. In all since he entered the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096. An impressive record, for someone who supposedly has no legislative record. . . . My last point: Obama needs name recognition, he needs to be among the people, so people feel like they have access to him. HRC's debate challenge is more about the fact that her campaign is running low on money and she gets free air-time without spending anything. Would you give up the chance to see 20,000 voters up close and personal to be on a televised debate? No way! Obama, stick to your guns. Debate on your terms, not Hillary's! Go Obama 2008!

come on man.
Clinton's campaign suggested a debate every WEEK, I love this stuff and that's too much even for me.

That, yet again, is a talking point straight from the Clinton campaign though.

It is really amazing how much you downplay Obama's momentum and overplay Clinton's chances or dissatisfaction with a candidate that clearly has a forward rising trajectory.

Clinton won California because the Clintons are ADORED here, and we have a huge swath of low information voters that didn't know Obama.

Obama had the movement, but not the numbers here, Clinton did.

Debate performance didn't swing it.

I really do love how everything is good news or an opportunity for Clinton.

I'm sure they could use your optimism in the campaign, and hey, maybe you could make a few $$$ from it eh?

-C.

Gulp ... and chatters71 is on OUR side. Imagine what McCain's new BFF Karl will do with that first paragraph.

But to play HRC's advocate, all that is powder that hasn't exactly been kept dry.

What I find most telling is the comparison of significant legislation introduced.

open left has an image map of county by county vote percentages per candidate.

it's not hard to see the massive amount of support coming from northern illinois. This type of support should and will bleed into Wisconsin.

http://img165.imageshack.us/my.php?image =countiesuz0.gif

For those of you who think Obama is inevitable -

Analyzing the recent Obama wins, Jay Cost has this to say:

"Given the voting coalitions that have formed over the last month and a half, Clinton never really stood a chance in any of them. African Americans drove Obama's victory in Louisiana. In the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, African Americans combined with wealthy whites to secure him victory. In Maine, Nebraska, and Washington - Obama took advantage of largely homogenous white populations and caucus contests to secure victory.

In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton's losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week.
...
All in all, this implies a rough parity from here until the end of the primary season. Approximately speaking, neither candidate seems to have an advantage in the remaining contests. So, my suggestion to readers is not to get caught up in the "Obama is inevitable" storyline. Minimally, we should all remember how well the "Clinton is inevitable" storyline worked out five months ago!"

Jay Cost, RealClearPolitics Horse Race Blog, 2/13/08

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/02/the_democratic_race_movin g_for.html

Jerome's comments on Hawai'i are not as wacky as many here think. I say that because I lived there for 10 years, and worked as a news producer there. Yes his hometown status plays really big there, he went to high school there, and his parents met at UH, and he is supported by Rep. Neil Abercrombie.
 What you may not know is that Punahou H.S. (where Obama went) is a private, rich-kids school. Believe me, for the average person in Hawai'i the word "Punahou" conjures an instant impression, and not necessarily a positive one. However, since Punahou is also synomous with "white" it doesn't work against him that hard.
 Clinton has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye ( a much bigger deal than Neil Abercrombie by a long shot) who is the state's top Democrat, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa along with the Hawai'i Government Employees Association (huge) and other labor unions. If you are wondering where Jerome's hope for Clinton comes from, look no further than this paragraph. Those 3 items are very important in Hawai'i politics.
  The lack of any polls for Hawai'i makes it hard to say for sure, but I believe Obama still has a big advantage because 1-its a caucus, and 2-he has poured a lot of money into it and 3- he isn't white (haole).
 Obama's mixed-race heritage is big advantage with the average Hawai'i voter, imo.  
 But acknowledging the fact that Clinton does have some important support in the state does not mean Jerome, or anyone else has lost their mind. It simply means they have read about the state a little, and so know labor unions are powerful there.  

i'm a little confused on this "afraid to debate" argument as well.  typically, the candidate who is behind is the one "clamoring" for more debates.  it's free televised publicity.  

also, Obama has agreed already to two more debates.  it's baffling why he would be beholden to debating Hillary Clinton once a week.  that's, frankly, overkill.  

i will agree that neither WI nor HI are "in the bag" for Obama, and that he should not approach any of the upcoming states as such.  his campaign has, so far, not taken any state for granted, with the possible exception of SC.

Engame for HRC.

I smell desperation and more defeats comming to her in both Wisconsin and Hawaii.

This ad was so lame!!