The vote

It should be a hearty blowout tonight in the VA/DC/MD primary, pretty much making February Barack Obama's continued valentine. Where I went and 'touched the screen' for Hillary today, the turnout seemed good-- first time I'd ever had to wait in a line of about 15 people-- usually it's a 3-4 person wait at most.

It seems a bit of a twist for me, to wind up voting for Clinton. For a longtime this cycle, my only thought was how to beat Hillary. With having experienced the MapChanger Mark Warner's not-to-be-campaign first-hand, then hoping for Al Gore, to then see the candidate I personally liked, John Edwards, also drop out, I've done the tour. And though I criticize Obama once in a while, I really do enjoy listening to his speeches, and after hearing him in person at least a dozen times, he never fails to deliver.

My son's class voted today, Clinton got 13 votes, Obama 8, McCain 5, and Huckabee 0. He explained his rationale for voting to me by saying to me that he wanted to see the first woman elected President, but then also said he wished he could have two votes, because he also wanted to see the first African-American elected President. That was pretty cool to hear from a 2nd grader.

I expected that by the time the voting got to Virginia, I'd be voting for whomever the nominee is, but since Feb 5th, it's pretty obvious that this is not going to be settled before August. In the end, what compelled me to vote for Clinton was looking at someone that seemed practical about the battle we have on our hands and looking ready to engage in the fight-- I'd rather be part of the fight than be told to stay on the sidelines because I'm too partisan (I like my tent democrats just as wide as they are big). Clinton's not my first choice, but Obama's approach seems more suited to when we are cleaning up after the battle; of the two, Clinton's got a closer resonance with what progressives need now as a President. However, I love transformational moments too, and will be waiting for the Obama beam of light tonight, shining on Ol' Virginny.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

55 Comments

Re: The vote

If the second graders favor Clinton, perhaps that suggests she should try again in a few cycles.

by Steve M 2008-02-12 02:03PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Hey, if McCain can run at that age...

by rfahey22 2008-02-12 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Hey, she's done really well among people who haven't graduated high school.

(It's true, in California she got 80% of them!)

by JoeFelice 2008-02-12 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Lately, I've been thinking there've been second graders posting here in favor of someone else. I guess it's only fair that there be equal representation.

by bowiegeek 2008-02-12 07:23PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Well you do certainly criticize Obama a healthy amount. But the only way to get better is to make mistakes and have people call you on it, so sometimes a good kick in the ass is exactly what you need. On that note GOBAMA!

by pierredude 2008-02-12 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

wise man

by Todd Beeton 2008-02-12 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

"what compelled me to vote for Clinton was looking at someone that seemed practical about the battle we have on our hands and looking ready to engage in the fight-- I'd rather be part of the fight than be told to stay on the sidelines because I'm too partisan."

My thoughts exactly.

by Sieglinde 2008-02-12 02:12PM | 0 recs
So

You're predicting Clinton victories in Ohio and Texas? Otherwise it's settled in less than a month.  And the likelihood of it going to August? Pretty small I'd say.  Superdelegates will make sure its done before then.

But thanks for the 'analysis.'

by responsible 2008-02-12 02:13PM | 0 recs
Your Son

Had a much better explanation for his vote than I had for mine when I was in second grade - Carter was the last name of the cutest boy in my class.  

by BDB 2008-02-12 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Your Son

In 1996 we had a mock debate in 8th grade, I got people to vote for Perot by adopting an accent and demagouging on Dole and Clinton's support for school uniforms.

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Your Son

I voted for Clinton in 1992 because Mad magazine called Bush a wimp on their Baseball card series.  ;-)

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Hey, I'm a passionate Obama supporter and the "light up state" thing is a bit odd (though his website in general is both aestically and functionally superior to hers-- hopefully hers gets a makeover if she's the nominee), at least the Huck isn't doing it that would be really scary.

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Hahaha yes that would be scary.

by animated 2008-02-12 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I'll never ever ever ever understand why people who "crash the gate" would support Clinton.

You understand that means Harold Ford in as DNC chair, right?

Makes no sense to me at all.

by bobestes 2008-02-12 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I kept wondering why none of the candidates made an appeal to the netroots community based on their vision for the DNC. Probably none of them would keep Howard on board. Who do you suppose would head the DNC with Obama as president?

by scvmws 2008-02-12 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I wouldn't be shocked if Howard is on for Obama, they both seem to support a 50 state strategy.

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

My other thing--how could you ever support the "hand the net over to Verizon and Time Warner, they know what's best" candidate over the candidate of net neutrality?  I've never seen Jerome's take on this, and it's always baffled me.  Obama's going to make Lessig his federal head of technology within a couple weeks of taking office.  Is Jerome looking to keep new participants from entering the big money market of lefty political blogs, winking smiley face?  If so, he's being short-sighted, as I'm pretty sure there will be many more consulting dollars available to Jerome in (hopefully, knock on wood) President Obama's booming internet economy.

by msbatxnyc 2008-02-12 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote


"I'd rather be part of the fight than be told to stay on the sidelines because I'm too partisan."

Voting for the DLC candidate makes you part of the fight?  Come on....

by stuckinsf 2008-02-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

You voted for Clinton??  Really??

Couldn't have predicted THAT...

On a serious note, nice to finally see a prognostication from you not swathed in hackery.  Here's hoping we get the smart analyst you can be, able to ride herd over his prejudices, back at some point.

Although, with the "it's pretty obvious that this is not going to be settled before August", seems you aren't quite there yet, as it MAY be only by August, but it definitely isn't "obvious".

by jc 2008-02-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

There is no doubt in my mind that once the nom is settled, Jerome, Todd and Jonathan will be out there helping us to destroy McCain.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Jerome,

If your pattern of support continues, Hillary will likely not get the nomination either.  PS-I am just having some fun at your expense.

by mfranczak 2008-02-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

LOL...That's true.  Maybe Jerome needs to vote for McCain in November. HE can single handedly give the Dems the election ;-)

Look on the bright side Jerome... At least Mark Warner will be the next Senator of Virginia...

I still never understood why Warner never ran.  That was sucha  shock to me.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I had a good streak for a while, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina... Feb's not a good month!

It's not the right timing for Warner.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-12 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Maybe your March Madness bracket will be a winner?

Fair enough... I could see him running in 8 years or maybe being a VP nom in 8 years as well.  We  know he will be a good Senator.  It will be AWESOME to see Virginia have to Dem Senators.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Ahh, it all makes sense.  The months of Obama concern-trolling and bashing was all an elaborate reverse jinx.

Seriously, though, this was one of the most useful things I've read out of Jerome this cycle (and I've read virtually all of it, both the hacktastic and the insightful Obama critiques), especially in combination with that silly "what's Obama's path to GE victory?" post the other day.  It's very interesting that Jerome simply doesn't factor in a candidates political and persuasive talents as a useful predictor of success.  Nor does he share the widespread displeasure that there's an ugly, undemocratic dynastic element to having another Clinton become President, let alone her personal problem with extremely high baseline negatives.  This makes sense given his profession and background--an adviser does his job better when he focuses on data and finds a path to victory, rather than getting swept up in a speech.  And the Clinton presidency may have made all of us a little wary of smooth talk--lefties who felt burned by the right-ward tack of the Clinton white house as much as anyone.  

Therefore, he has been unable to see that Obama was perfectly situated to come from behind and overtake Clinton once the race narrowed to two candidates because he simply never understood Obama's wide appeal, in spite of the mounds of evidence that was presented to him.  But he had his finger on the pulse of the dynamic of Obama peaking too soon and rightly called that Hillary would not be written off until the anti-Hillary vote could be consolidated.  This happened because Obama had not had a chance to campaign in other places where his appeal was more likely to move voters (i.e. in a place with more favorable demographics than lilly-white, working class, strongly female New Hampshire).  

So for Jerome, he's only interested in Obama's political talents to the extent he sees them as a device for advancing the correct agenda.  And to the extent Obama has proven unwilling to hew to his agenda, he's willing to overlook all kinds of negatives of Hillary's candidacy to punish Obama for his insubordination (also known as the Krugman position).  It's very ideologically zero sum, and in a strict, non-pejorative/non-ratfucking way, extremely Rovian.  There's a battle between good and evil, and we're good and we shall prevail.  The non-good-but-not-evil must realize the error of their ways and submit to the forces of good.  Low information voters, moderates, independents and the like are all just pawns for the most clever political strategists to move into place, in service of the winning agenda.  There is little or no utility, in Jerome's view, to convincing non-partisans to support the standard-bearer of the Democratic brand, other than to convert them into partisans.  We don't have to be popular as long as we win.  So what if a candidate has astronomical negatives, acts entitled to the Presidency, and is running a campaign to gut the 50 state strategy and win by the DLC golden calf of 50% plus one.  As long as she is willing to fight for what I believe, it's no problem.  

This was likely a great way to drive traffic to a political blog--find an underserved political viewpoint and serve it very well.  Who cares if you're unpopular with non-readers, in fact all the better.  Readers hate all the adequately served viewpoints and will revel in your efforts to take them down one or more pegs.  

I will always fundamentally disagree with this line of reasoning re: the 08 race (and it's basically the same argument that Obama voters had with Edwards voters all cycle).  It misunderstands the distinction between campaign rhetoric and policy debate dynamics, and it elevates agenda above the duty in a democracy to persuade and compromise.  Conflating David Broder and Barack Obama is pretty stupid and unfair.  But as someone who has admired what Jerome, and many others following in his footsteps, built in terms of the left-wing online political movement, I can't say there isn't part of me that understands.  Obviously a race with Gore as the candidate running on "let's push the reset button" would have been very fun.  And it would have been easier for the blogs to find a role like their current one in that race.  

But the blogs will do fine in the coalition building world of an Obama-led Dem party.  In fact, they are ideal tools for such a world, as evidenced by how effective the Obama campaign has been at organizing and the viral marketing aspects of this race.  In the end, Obama will win this race as the first candidate to conquer the internet (the JFK parallel and the septagenarian opponent are just too tailor-made), and non-legacy media generally will be hugely empowered, and that's all before the candidate of net neutrality and his minister of technology, Larry Lessig, even take office.

 

by msbatxnyc 2008-02-12 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Some fair points, but the ideological reasoning is a stretch. I'm pretty post-ideological, but plenty partisan.

I don't view Obama as being flawed, in many ways (you can go back and read the posts I wrote about him a year ago), his message has some appeal; and I didn't the right message to win the primary. Well, I still don't, but he's found a very tactical path to get this far.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-12 04:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Oh, may the Divine Light of St. Barry shine on me soon!

by rcipw 2008-02-12 02:26PM | 0 recs
Open Call to Jonathan Singer

Can you round up those closest to Mr. Armstrong so that we can arrange an intervention.

by mboehm 2008-02-12 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Call to Jonathan Singer

LOL, given I was outnumbered 2:1 in my office, and my wife canceled out my vote, he won't have to look far for volunteers.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-13 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Go Obama!  In other words, GOBAMA!

by agpc 2008-02-12 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Roll Tide!

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Or GO CATS

by kydem 2008-02-12 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Go Cats?

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

ah I forgot you are a UK guy.   I have no love or affiliation for Alabama.  Its just that everytime I see the words GO BAMA Or GOBAMA I just have to say, ROLL TIDE!

I'm actually a Mizzou alum.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

In that case: WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS 2008

A Cards fan can pray, right?

by kydem 2008-02-12 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Criticize Obama once in a while?

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I never thought KY would actually be in play when I vote in May.

I'm going for Clinton after being an advocate for Bayh for so long (Warner, Feingold, Vilsack dropped out) and I'll be voting for her in November as well...but what do I know, I voted for Kerry

by kydem 2008-02-12 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Going to write her in?  ;-) Sorry couldn't resist.  

It is kind of cool to see it go this long in the sense it gives most people a say.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:52PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Understandable.  Personally living in a deeply red area of a red state I prefer Obama's method.

by TerraFF 2008-02-12 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I am SHOCKED you voted for Clinton.  Never saw that coming.  Noooosirreee bob...

by jgkojak 2008-02-12 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Yeah Jerome, I thought that was the oddest part of Sen. Obama's platform. I believe that was page 435 of policy document 13A: "Stay on the sidelines because you're too partisan, Jerome Armstrong."

by Yama Rahyar 2008-02-12 02:38PM | 0 recs
the wave of people who are *shocked* continues!

Also, i guess i missed the part of his platform that said people should stay on the sidelines...

Link?
ahah just kidding.

I know i could never call you out like that.

by MrMacMan 2008-02-12 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

I'm old enough to remember when Mondale took out Gary Hart with "Where's the beef?"  Obama has no substance--by design.  He could run into some trouble in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

by Upstate Dem 2008-02-12 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Anyone who says he has no substance really hasn't educated themselves at all.  He has substance, he has plans.  He has said them, they are on his website.  NOW, you may feel Hillary's are better and I can respect that opinion.  But to say there is no substance is simply ignorance.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Yeah all you have to do to educate yourself on the Big O is just go to his website.

by tx dem in dc 2008-02-12 06:33PM | 0 recs
Thanks for supporting Hillary.

You kid and his class sound pretty smart.  :)

by masslib1 2008-02-12 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Thanks for supporting Hillary.

Guess Obama needs to send his girls on the trail to get the Swingset vote!  ;-)

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-12 02:55PM | 0 recs
Thanks Jerome!

At this point I have pretty much decided that I am casting my vote for Obama in April (I vote in PA.)

That being said this was a refreshingly honest and positive statement about why you have chosen to support Clinton and to be honest it makes a lot of sense to me.

I have been saying for quite a while now that I will be happy with either candidate, and I can't for the life of me understand why more people here do not feel the same way...

Anyway, thanks again Jerome. This is still a great site and you still do a great job.

by JDF 2008-02-12 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

"It seems a bit of a twist for me, to wind up voting for Clinton."

Yes, such a twist that the most biased pro-Hillary mydd blogger voted for Hillary.

I am shocked.

by skipos 2008-02-12 03:16PM | 0 recs
I am shocked, SHOCKED I SAY.

to hear that you voted for Clinton.
Seriously dude, it's easy to dismiss a lot of it as partisan bickering, but if you aren't a part of her campaign, you really oughta try to sign up and get some of those $$$ while you can.

A lot of your posts feel like they were written by the campaign.

It's pretty glaring.

Having said that: It's awesome about your kid.

One thing that makes me very happy is that this kind of thing is going to be all the more normal to them... which is a sign of progress.

And that progressivism is on the march!

by neutron 2008-02-12 04:22PM | 0 recs
Please stop trying to predict the election

"but since Feb 5th, it's pretty obvious that this is not going to be settled before August."

You're letting your emotions cloud your judgment.  

Let's leave aside your argument about how it looked on Feb. 5.  Given what you've seen over the past week, do you still think that?

If BHO wins WI and HI next weekend - which appears likely - he'll be at least 120 ahead in the pledged delegate count.  Where, exactly, does HRC come up with the delegates to close that gap?

On March 4 come OH, TX, RI and VT.  Even if HRC pulls down 55% of the vote in the three where she's favored - which would be a very big win - she's not going to bring his lead down by more than 30.  

After that come a bunch of states - representing 317 delegates - that BHO should win handily: OR, NC, MS, SD, WY, IN, MT, Guam.  The remaining states, in which HRC is favored - including PA -  amount to only 292 delegates: PA, WV, KY, PR.  That's it.  If she's lucky, she will trade delegates the rest of the way.  More likely, she will bleed a few back.

Where, then, does she close the gap?  She's 100+ delegates behind when all is said and done.  

And, I should add, that's a relatively favorable scenario.  If she loses or ties in TX, which seems entirely possible, I predict the momentum will start to roll BHO's way bigtime.

Everything can change tomorrow, of course.  But if you extrapolate from current trends, there is no way you can foresee a tough fight to August.

by TL 2008-02-12 04:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Please stop trying to predict the election

"he'll be at least 120 ahead in the pledged delegate count.  Where, exactly, does HRC come up with the delegates to close that gap?"

Florida and Michigan.

You really don't think Obama can say its legitimatized to win the nomination without including those states, right?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-12 04:45PM | 0 recs
FL and MI

(1) What's your estimate of how many delegates she picks up, net, from those states?  The highest estimate I've seen is about 60.

Which leads me to believe that even if the delegates are seated it won't be close enough to matter.

(2) And as I'm sure you know, there are real problems with the outcome of FL and MI - ones you don't have to be an Obama partisan to see.

In Michigan, Obama and Edwards' names were not on the ballot.  This can't be said often enough.  HRC would not have won 50% of the vote if all of the candidates' names had been on the ballot.  

And then, of course, none of the candidates campaigned there.  We know that in every race so far, Obama gained ground where he had a chance to campaign.  It could scarcely be otherwise - HRC began with a huge advantage in name recognition, while Obama had to introduce himself.  The lesser-known candidate always needs the campaign - this isn't because BHO is a good campaigner - it's practically an iron law of elections.

So, what's the argument for giving her all those delegates?  Tough luck, Obama, you were denied any chance to compete in those states by the DNC rules?  Oh, and sorry, you've lost because of votes in a state where you weren't even on the ballot?

Do a thought experiment - if MI and FL voters had a chance to cast their ballots in a real election - one with campaigning and all the choices on the ballot - do you think HRC takes anything like the number of votes she's claiming?  Not a chance.  

(3) All of that said, it will bother me a lot if the people in those states never get a chance to cast votes that count.  

I think a do-over in a primary format (after a real campaign) would be the fairest way to get their views.  But that's extremely unlikely to happen.

I do blame Dean for this - he's put us in an untenable position.  But here we are.

So, we're basically screwed and I'm guardedly optimistic that BHO's momentum will soon make the question moot.

by TL 2008-02-12 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Great post Jerome.  I'm an Obama supporter who will do my best to get Hillary elected if she does win the nomination.

by Cloudspitter 2008-02-13 03:03AM | 0 recs
Re: The vote

Thanks, and its the same for Obama with me. I actually hope they work it out and share the ticket, eventually.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-13 10:54AM | 0 recs

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