Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

by Todd Beeton, Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:14:53 PM EST

With Hillary Clinton's trip to Texas today and the rolling out of former Ohio Senator John Glenn's endorsement of her, Clinton is sending the message that she's moved on to what for her is the next Super Tuesday: March 4th when both Texas and Ohio vote. So what's the state of the race on March 4th?

Survey USA (720 LVs, Feb. 10-11, MOE +/- 3.7%)  has a new poll out of Ohio taken post-Washington/Nebraska/Louisiana but pre-Potomac Primary that shows Clinton with a comfortable lead of 17%.

ALLDemIndMenWomen
Clinton5658424662
Obama3937484733

I think it's fair to say that this represents Obama's low watermark and it's Clinton's job to keep the margin as close to these numbers as she possibly can. As only 2% of voters self-identify as undecided, it looks as though the poll pushed leaners, which I think is good news for Clinton. In other words: a. most people (69%) say they've already made up their minds and of those Clinton holds a strong lead (59%-39%) and a lot of the voters Obama would be targeting in the coming weeks are already telling pollsters they prefer him. But Obama has already launched an ad campaign in Ohio and the amazing press he gets out of tonight's expected wins can not be underestimated. It will be very interesting to see how these numbers move after tonight's results are known.

Update [2008-2-12 18:31:19 by Todd Beeton]:Notice the gender gap here. As SUSA points out, "Clinton's lead comes entirely from women," it is women she needs to hold onto. But the latest media narrative of how Barack Obama is going to break out of his own voting coalition and into hers is that "women are switching to Obama." Michelle Bernard of the Independent Women's Forum spoke at length about her anecdotal experiences finding that this is the case on Hardball tonight and I've seen one article, I believe in The Baltimore Sun (can't find it now) pushing this meme, complete with a young woman tearing up at an Obama rally. Women are going to be the Ohio battleground, expect to hear a lot more exploration of this question of whether women are leaving Clinton for Obama in the coming weeks.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, ohio primary (all tags)

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41 Comments

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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Is she already conceding Wisconsin?  The Giuliani strategy returns!

by rfahey22 2008-02-12 01:16PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

You know, comments about Clinton pursuing a Giuliani strategy suggests that some Obama supporters are dumber than rocks.  Clinton isn't skipping Wisconsin, will win a significant number of delegates there even if she loses the state, has already won a significant number of delegates, and more than halfway through the process is more or less matched, or even slightly leading, Obama in delegates.  Other than that, the two situations are perfectly parallel.  

I can't decide whether the "Giuliani strategy" remarks are Rovian-style spin or just one more example of blind faith in Obama at the neglect of facts.

by InigoMontoya 2008-02-12 01:29PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Neither.  It's simply a remark about the fact that her ground game up until now has been ineffective.  Concentrating in a handful of states and essentially conceding others is a defensive strategy that doesn't tend to work.  Wisconsin's primary is weeks before that of Texas, yet why is she going to Texas first?  Perhaps the writing is on the wall.

by rfahey22 2008-02-12 01:38PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%
I just cant conceive how a candidate could lose 10 consecutive states this late in the game and viably be the Democratic candidate. I mean, none of these states matter besides Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania?  I doubt that either party has had a candidate go on this kind of losing streak and come back to win the nomination.
By the way, I know SUSA is the best poller and all, but I find it very hard to believe that Clinton is leading women by 30 POINTS. Nothing remotely that dramatic has happened anywhere yet.
by AC4508 2008-02-12 01:47PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Numbers wont move that much. They stay generally the same as in CA, MA even NJ. So he can make it closer but Clinton wins.

by bayareasg 2008-02-12 01:17PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

How do we keep that percentage?  Perhaps encourage absentee immediately!  Before they change their minds??

by findthesource 2008-02-12 01:18PM | 0 recs
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51% of her 56%

Have already voted.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 01:19PM | 0 recs
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Nope

early voting doesn't start until February 19th in Ohio.  

by gobacktotexas 2008-02-12 01:20PM | 0 recs
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Re: Nope

Absentee? I'm reading the info from Survey USA web site. Go take a look for yourself.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 01:22PM | 0 recs
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Re: Nope

If you look again at the poll, you'll see that only 6% of the respondents have already voted.

by Steve M 2008-02-12 01:34PM | 0 recs
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Re: Nope

Oh, tee hee hee (Scooby laugh), I don't know how to read Survey USA crosstabs. They look like bus schedules. So much for an education!

What does the "Already" mean?

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 01:40PM | 0 recs
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Re: Nope

So I guess a little more than half (51%) of the 6% of their total sample who have already voted, have voted for Clinton.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 01:44PM | 0 recs
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Feb 19th

Is the day of the primary.  Early voting in Ohio starts, IIRC, 35 days before the primary.

by BDB 2008-02-12 01:34PM | 0 recs
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The Ohio primary is March 4 (n/t)

by gobacktotexas 2008-02-12 01:39PM | 0 recs
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Re: Nope

Okay, I was wrong on early voting.  It starts 25 days before the primary, so it has just begun.  But by no means have most people already voted.    

by gobacktotexas 2008-02-12 01:43PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I've said it before and I'll say it again: "YES WE CAN!" won't cut it in Ohio.

by Upstate Dem 2008-02-12 01:23PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

What good is a poll from a month away -- except to rally to Hillary's ever more dispirited troops?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-02-12 01:25PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Don't expect tonight's results to help Hillary at all. EXit polls show Obama beating her by a margin of 2:1 in virgina, and MD. 3:1 in Dc www.drudgereport.com

by mecarr 2008-02-12 01:27PM | 0 recs
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Virginia et al.

A Dem hasn't won VA since LBJ.

And DC and MD, Clinton did not really contest.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 01:31PM | 0 recs
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Re: Virginia et al.

oh i see, we should not even fight for VA anymore as democrats. Unbelievable. You will spin ANYTHING for HIllary.

by mecarr 2008-02-12 01:39PM | 0 recs
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Re: Virginia et al.

Good lord.  Ladies and gentlemen, the latest iteration of the "which states actually count" theory.

by rfahey22 2008-02-12 01:40PM | 0 recs
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Re: Virginia et al.

Apparantly only the ones Clinton wins lol

by Vox Populi 2008-02-12 01:53PM | 0 recs
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Re: Virginia et al.

Either Hillary or Obama have a great chance to win Virginia this cycle.  To say otherwise makes you sound silly.  

As far as the "HRC didn't contest it, so it doesn't count" theme, that's starting to get old my friend.  These primaries don't mean anything and she can win the nomination without them.  I'll stipulate to that.  But losses like these are still bad and she wanted to win all these states.  She just wasn't able, for whatever reason, to organize everwhere as well as Obama.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-12 01:52PM | 0 recs
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Re: Virginia et al.

I think the demographics lined up behind Obama in cases likes these.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-12 02:10PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I'm beginning to think this race is pretty much momentum proof.  I could, of course be wrong (I've been wrong about many other things).  But this campaign has been going on a long time.  People know these candidates by now.  And Obama has had three tremendous weeks of media coverage.  I don't know that one more night of good coverage - of wins everyone already expects - is going to change anything.  It'll probably tighten, like it did on Super Tuesday, but even then Clinton won the big states by fairly comfortable margins.

by BDB 2008-02-12 01:37PM | 0 recs
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The other numbers

Did anyone see the Latino numbers?  Wow!

by newhorizon 2008-02-12 01:38PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I've seen one article, I believe in The Baltimore Sun (can't find it now) pushing this meme, complete with a young woman tearing up at an Obama rally.

It's about time women voters were subjected to the same infantilizing narratives as black voters have been throughout this process.  We all know it's only white men who make a sober, rational decision based on the issues; everyone else makes a simpleminded identity-based decision.  Or so I'm told by the media!

by Steve M 2008-02-12 01:40PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I appreciate your sentiment, though haven't posters on both sides of the aisle been throwing demographics at the other for weeks now?  My point being, it's not like the analysis by the well-educated people on this site has been much more sophisticated.

by rfahey22 2008-02-12 01:45PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I do not deny that most people vote on the basis of identity or other equally silly factors.  It's just that the media only thinks this is an interesting phenomenon when minority groups are involved.

As a white male, I generally get a pass, but every once in a while I get roped in as a Jew when the media tells me I will vote for whoever waves the Israeli flag the most, or what have you.

by Steve M 2008-02-12 01:49PM | 0 recs
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Meanwhile, Obama up 2:1 in Va, Md exit polls!!!

and 3:1 in DC.

Watch the Shrill's numbers in Ohio and Texas tumble!

by hrcisthemachine 2008-02-12 01:42PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Momentum obviously has some effect. Look at the numbers in Wisconsin. And does anyone really believe that if Obama did not perform well on Super Tuesday that he'd be ahead in VA?

by mecarr 2008-02-12 01:42PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

The big picture is this:

1. Mi/Fla votes WILL--repeat WILL be counted in making the final decsion (not fater the fact) because there is now way on earth that Dems can take the Risk of losing Fla in Novemeber which goes winner takes all. Simply as that.

2. DNC etc is purposely not making any comment on this yet because they are Hoping that there will be a clear winner on March 5 post Ohio and Texas, such that Mi/Fla being counted won't then matter in the arithmetic (ie won't tip the balance).

3. If on Mar5,  HRC is ahead of Obama in cumulative total delegates through Mar 4 as well in %cumulative popular vote (exl Mi/Fla), then I think that Obamania is done-She will be our Nominee---To do that she likley has to win both Ohio And Texas, not just one--Ohio so far so good.

4.After Mar5, the only state that might materially change the Mar5 cumulative result is PA in April. My sense is that no one wants to that long--so Mar4 is "it" as I see it.

5.If HRC is behind on Mar5 before adding in Mi/Fla that is the Worst result politically if the effect of adding in Mi/Fla would cause her to lead again.

6 One way or another-the ultimate winner will be seen as the victor of all states INCLUDING Mi/Fla votes taken together. So, DNC etc is crossing their fingers that adding Mi/Fla votes concurrently will Not in and of itself tilt the result.

7. If for eg on Mar5 Obama is ahead enough that Mi/Fla votes won't affect the outcome, HRC will likely withdraw.

8. In contrast, if HRC has nore cumulative pledged delagates on Mar5  even without Mi/Fla, Obama will likely see the writing on the wall

by ionsys 2008-02-12 01:46PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Every state, other than Maine and Nebraska I believe, go winner-take-all in November. That's how the Electoral College works. And seating the Michigan and Florida delegations will be up to the Credentials Committee, which will be controlled by whoever has the most pledged delegates. So if Obama comes in with more pledged delegates than Clinton, but with less than the margin were Michigan and Florida to be counted, he could decide not to seat those delegations. If that were to happen, it would be up to the superdelegates to decide what to do about the nomination.

Moral of the story: just because certain people keep saying things like, "make no mistake, the Michigan and Florida delegations WILL be seated" doesn't mean it's actually true.

by Max Fletcher 2008-02-12 02:14PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

At best MI/FL will get half delegations (ala the GOP), there is absolutely no way they will get full value, if they do it would undermine the strength of the National Party fatally (you would have all primaries rush to January). If I had to guess Florida will get a half value, and MI will get a Half value with the uncommitted going to Obama (if Hillary argues for the Uncomitted she will be destroyed publicly, there is no way to make that argument stick).  

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:38PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Have to dispute that this poll represents Obama's "low water mark."  The Columbus Dispatch released a poll on Feb. 3 with Clinton 42 Obama 19, a 23 point difference.  I know, a different polling source, but a pretty reliable one, I think (i.e., not Zogby).

March 4th is still 3 weeks away.  HRC's lead will either grow or shrink by then, in all likelihood.

by jmr1948 2008-02-12 01:48PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

I think, that people are really having some issues with the facts of Ohio, when stating that Clinton will definitely win, primarily there undervaluing Columbus which is nearly as large as Cleveland and Cincy combined (okay, more like 1.75 times either one) where Obama not only has the endorsement of the Mayor (see LA mayors effect for HRC, and Boston's mayors effect in making that city close and providng gorund troops for the surrounding areas), but also has a demographic sweet spot: reasonably large AA pop., massive university (largest in America, 50,000+), nearly 30% population already with a Bachelors (add those to the college students), etc. I think Ohio could be a lot like Mizzou, only Cincy might hurt Obama.

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:44PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

My bad Cincy might be conservative, compared to other large cities but it is 43% AA, so that should be good for Barak as well, Cleveland is majority AA. Additionally I was right in my initial guess Columbus (730,000) is nearly the size of Cleveland (460k) and Cincy (315k) combined!

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 02:47PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Todd,

I really don't mean this in a pejorative way but has MyDD come out in support of Hillary Clinton's campaign? That's the impression I've been getting, but is it official?

by randron 2008-02-12 01:48PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

Today's Obama sweep? Nothing to see here move along...
If Hillery IS the ONE...where is she today?

I have moved from Edwards....to it does not matter..to kinda Obama...to Yes Obama!

At 58..I am way beyond naive...

Why did not Clinton dominate today?
Please someone pony up an opinion..
It can be just from you with no links....

Seriously...in 2004, who did Kerry really
inspire?

By the way...Obama did the right thing on FISA today...hell even McCain voted(although the wrong way)....where was Hillery?

"The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
You can't let go and you can't hold on,
You can't go back and you can't stand still,
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

Won't you try just a little bit harder,
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?
Won't you try just a little bit harder,
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?

Round, round robin run round, got to get back to where you belong,
Little bit harder, just a little bit more,
A little bit further than you gone before.

The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
You can't let go and you can't hold on,
You can't go back and you can't stand still,
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

Small wheel turn by the fire and rod,
Big wheel turn by the grace of God,
Every time that wheel turn 'round,
Bound to cover just a little more ground.

The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
You can't let go and you can't hold on,
You can't go back and you can't stand still,
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will.

Won't you try just a little bit harder,
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?
Won't you try just a little bit harder,
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?"

by nogo war 2008-02-12 01:48PM | 0 recs
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Meaningless poll

in my opinion. Having lived my whole life here, I can tell you -the average Joe and average Jane is just starting to pay attention. None of us believed we would play any role in this primary. Local media has barely started to pay attention.

We should wait a few days after Wisconsin to analyze any poll. The importance of Ohio and Texas will dominate local news coverage once we're next in line to vote. Plus by then, we'll have a clearer picture of what each candidate needs to accomplish to get the nomination -could be a motivator for both sides.

by Cleveland John 2008-02-12 02:03PM | 0 recs
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Re: Survey USA Ohio Poll Has Clinton Up 17%

While I hate to overestimate the impact of a TV Ad, I think Obama's "Mom" add might really help in Ohio with women.

by Socraticsilence 2008-02-12 03:16PM | 0 recs

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