The run-up to Feb 5th

Here's the remaining days on the candidates schedule:

Clinton

February 2, in Los Angeles, CA, Tucson, AZ and Albuquerque, NM.

February 3, in Bridgeton, MO and Minneapolis, MN.

February 4, in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York.

February 5, in New York.

Obama

February 2, in Boise, ID, Minneapolis, MN and St Louis, MO.

February 3, in Wilmington, DE, and Chicago IL.

February 4, in Hartford, CT, New Jersey (per BlueJersey.net), and Boston, MA (rumored).

February 5, in Chicago, IL.

As you can see, Clinton's calendar is pretty full, and Obama has a few slots still open [less, with a few updates]. From the looks of it, they are both done in CA, which I find surprising. Instead, they will spend the last couple of days moving across the country into the eastern states, wherever Obama goes, Clinton is there the following day, like a check to his every move; both candidates possibly closing out in New York City, or will Obama head elsewhere?

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

73 Comments

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

this will change as polls change. I expect, if the polls tighten, she will comeback to CA on feb 4th night to be here on 5th.

by bayareasg 2008-02-01 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

She'll get more national coverage out of NY, I doubt she returns to CA.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th
Clinton will wind up in her home state of NY Feb. 4 & 5, which is fitting;
Obama would do well to be at home (IL) on Feb. 5,  as well for the obligatory "candidate at the polls" photo.
by susie 2008-02-01 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I updated it, that might be right, according to the WaPost tracker.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Thought you might be interested in this from Gallup if you haven't already seen it:

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-01 08:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Thanks for this information.

So gender will matter and so will race undoubtedly, two of the most trivial reasons upon which to base a vote for the best candidate. And unfortunately, both trend toward the least desirable direction for the country: backward to the past.

by shergald 2008-02-02 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Actually it is looking less and less so.  For everybody's sake.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 03:38AM | 0 recs
Who's catching who?

It seems to me the graph you posted and the chart at the linked article shows that while Hillary coninues to enjoy a near double lead among women over Obama, she also has closed the gap among men with him. The latest poll he has shows them both getting 40% of men. If Hillary leads among the gender with the larger number of voters, and is tied with Obama in the other gender, how can she not win overall?

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 05:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Who's catching who?

It shows Hillary's lead among women dropping to 9% across all demographics in national polling, lead among men to nil.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 11:30AM | 0 recs
Perspective

I would say it shows Hillary's lead among women stabilizing at around 10%, and it shows that the lead OBAMA (not Hillary) had among men for the last few weeks has dropped to zero.

Again, if Hillary leads among women and is tied with Obama among men, how can Obama win? Does he do inordinately well with some 3rd gender that I'm unaware of?

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Perspective

should have been "days" not "weeks"

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Perspective

Hillary has enjoyed a significant lead with women nationally, this lead is apparently eroding rapidly.  Among men it has vanished.  Let's call it a trend.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 11:40AM | 0 recs
Sorry, no

Clinton maintains her lead among women. Obama has lost his lead among men. The only "trend" I see favors Hillary.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry, no

You better think about catching up with the rest of the Hillary supporter's progressions through the five stages of grief, sounds like you are still in denial.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 12:03PM | 0 recs
LOL

Check the latest polls, I think you Obama-bots are somewhere between shock and anger right now! Go over to the Orange Satan. Here's what they're saying: Stupid polls, what do THEY know, I hate Hillary, the GOP will win if Hillary is nominated, I'll stay home if Hillary is nominated, I'll vote Republican if Hillary is nominated, how can anyone NOT love Obama, etc., etc.

Hillary is leading in every national poll. She is leading in all the ST states that matter. She won the debate, even Markos What'shisname admits it. Obama has crested. He never reached parity with her and now he is slipping back.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: LOL

Yeah, right, we'll see.  And soon, too.  I don't think the Hillary campaign believes this contest ends on Tuesday.  But who knows?  This campaign has been full of surprises.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

If the polls tighten further in CA Hillary will run as far as possible from the Golden State.

by shlenny 2008-02-01 05:54PM | 0 recs
Where's the fast forward button? n/t

by bowiegeek 2008-02-01 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Where's the fast forward button? n/t

If we knew, we would have been holding it down for the last eight years.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-01 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Hillary was at San Diego State today at the Cox Arena. SD Union report here. You can click through for video here.

This pm, she was at the San Jose Convention Center, and the San Francisco.

Chelsea was at SBCC and Cal Poly.

I don't know how much of an effect it will have, but all of the Clintons have been doing a lot of work at CA colleges.

by Pacific John 2008-02-01 05:32PM | 0 recs
Saw her in San Jose

4,000 people they expected 2,000.  Great speech, great crowd.  Wow.  

by Iskandar 2008-02-01 09:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Saw her in San Jose

How do you know that they expected 2000?

by shlenny 2008-02-02 03:30AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Clinton's schedule is fairly full, not very full. Obviously, they are both waiting to see where the need to be for the 10pm newscast on Monday night.

I think that Obama is smart to go Delaware and Idaho. These are small states (actually, Idaho is massive, but small population...) where a candidate appearance can go a long way. If I were Hillary, I would make a stop in Delaware as well as a tarmac event in Grad Forks, ND (on the Minnesota border).

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-02-01 05:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Is 'pretty full' then 'fairly full' or 'very full'?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Yeah I was wondering where he/she was going with that.

lol.

by lori 2008-02-01 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Fargo would be better

by Judeling 2008-02-01 05:45PM | 0 recs
Blue Jersey says

Obama will also be in North Jersey on Feb 4.

by John DE 2008-02-01 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Blue Jersey says

Thanks, added.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th
I thought Reid scheduled the FISA vote for Monday - anticipating Hillary and Obama would be in DC.
Might as well wait until Wed - another 48 hours of Bush's corruption won't matter since he'll probably nix the vote anyway if it passes.
by annefrank 2008-02-01 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

It's been moved to Wednesday.

by kristoph 2008-02-01 06:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Well, there's an Oprah/Michelle Obama/Caroline Kennedy rally in LA tomorrow, which may generate some free media.

by Adam B 2008-02-01 05:48PM | 0 recs
It's on

Super Bowl Sunday, not tomorrow.

I'm sure it will generate some free media.

by Coldblue 2008-02-01 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I hope she stops in DE too.  I also hope she does quite a job in CT because one of the polls shows she may be losing ground there.  Monday night she is supposed to be in NYC for that webcast.  

Hitting CA colleges is important because normally Obama succeeds on campuses.  This may help bring out her youth vote.  

by findthesource 2008-02-01 05:49PM | 0 recs
I am shocked the candidates

are leaving California.

I understand Obama going to small states - I can already here the spin: "candidate so-and-so won 14 of the states up for grabs".

Nevertheless, I think California is vital for Obama. In the math I have been doing, I just don't see how he overcomes Clinton's shrinking but still significant leads in the Northeast.  

I am equally surprised that Clinton is leaving.  It may reflect the judgement of both campaigns that Clinton will win California based on early voting that occured before SC.

by fladem 2008-02-01 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: I am shocked the candidates

That's my sense.  Obama has closed well in California and may split the vote on election today, but there's way he can overcome the large early voting lead that Hillary has.

by markjay 2008-02-01 06:20PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

See ya in East LA tomorrow morning!

Hillary to Obama: "Where ya goin' young man?  Ya goin' over there, I'm right behind you....  I gotcha!"

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-01 05:51PM | 0 recs
Califorinia or Illinois????

It appears that Obama is waiting to decide where to spend the evening of Feb 5, whereas as Clinton is playing it safe.

by shlenny 2008-02-01 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Califorinia or Illinois????

The Washington Post has IL (I just found out), but that's tentative.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Califorinia or Illinois????

If its in southern IL, near St. Louis, that would be a good sign for Obama.

by shlenny 2008-02-02 03:33AM | 0 recs
The candidates

have to go with their advisors at this stage.

We'll see.

by Coldblue 2008-02-01 05:57PM | 0 recs
Dumb question

When has Reid scheduled the vote on the stimulus package?

by ChrisR 2008-02-01 06:03PM | 0 recs
Barack Rocked Albuquerque

today.  Clinton will look to do the same tomorrow. 8pm, Highland High School Gym, for those of you who were wondering.

by fbihop 2008-02-01 06:16PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Jerome - will you be posting your predictions on the outcome of February 5th?

by turnpikekid 2008-02-01 06:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Of course. I still need to review who nailed FL. Right now, I'd go with roughly a 1000 to 700, or so, delegate split in Clinton's favor. I view the 1000 mark as the threshold for her to be declared the victor, and I think she could be just under or over. In terms of states, Clinton winning 15-19 and Obama 3-7. I should have time Sun to blog it hopefully.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I hope you're spot on!

by DrGary 2008-02-01 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I think we are going to get our money's worth this time:


On the Democratic side, the battle is closer, but the advantage has shifted back to Barack Obama -- thanks to a growing but largely unremarked-upon tendency among Democratic leaders to reject Hillary Clinton and her husband, the former president.

The New York senator could still emerge from the "Tsunami Tuesday" voting with the overall lead in delegates, but she is unlikely to come close to clinching the nomination. And the longer the race goes on, the better the chances Obama will prevail as more Democratic elected officials and candidates come to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November.

David Broder - A Matchup Starts to Take Shape Washington Post 31 Jan 08

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-01 11:23PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

If Clinton comes out with even a 200 delegate lead, which is about the minimum I'd see likely, he comes up with that as bettering the chances of Obama?

Broder is so full of hogwash; he has no clue in anymore.

Some people, when they are obviously biased and cannot post the truth and would rather spin hopefullness, should stay out of the prediction business-- which some of my friends have taken as good advice.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-02 05:28AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Its not just Broder saying this. It seems to be echoing through out the mainstream pundits and media.

It may be hogwash but it is the growing conventional wisdom.

by aiko 2008-02-02 09:45AM | 0 recs
David Broder!

David Broder, the doddering, senile voice of the Village idiots in Georgetown. That's your source?

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 05:28AM | 0 recs
Re: David Broder!

Apparently so.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 11:31AM | 0 recs
And?

And. . .what? You're proud of that? You dispute my characterization of him?

David Broder is an inveterate Clinton hater (if you don't know it, he is the author of the infamous phrase about the Clintons "trashing the place (DC)." What he says about the Clintons isn't worth garbage. Broder is also an out of touch old fool who lost his last brain cell some time during the first Reagan Adminisration.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: And?

I posted a timely quote with an accurate citation, you asked me if I was indeed quoting the source I cited and I affirmed, redundantly, that I was.  You're entitled to your opinion like anyone else but so far no evidence you are interested in discussing the content of the quote, whatever the source.  Suit yourself.  

Jerome's response was also critical but at least he made a meaningful reply.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 12:08PM | 0 recs
Rhetorical question

I didn't "ask" you anything. That was a rhetorical question. It's an argumentative device that you might like to acquaint yourself with.

As for the content of the quote, considering its source, it's worth nothing. Again, unless you care to dispute my characterization of Broder, you are adding nothing to the conversation. The opionion of an openly biased and decrepit old fool simply carries no weight. Dispute that he is biased, or dispute that he is decrepit. But please come back with another meaningless semantic argument.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Rhetorical question

should have been "please don't come back"

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Rhetorical question

I think we are wasting bandwidth on this.  If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it.

The point he was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio.  I agree with those premises.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 12:24PM | 0 recs
not getting it

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 01:55PM | 0 recs
Re: not getting it

You're still shooting the messenger and ignoring the message.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 02:26PM | 0 recs
Still not getting it

When the messanger is untrustworthy, the message can't be trusted either.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Still not getting it

Quo errat demonstrator.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-02 03:14PM | 0 recs
Yes. . .

. . .QED. Now, do you actually have any point to make, or is it simply the case with you that you must have the last word everywhere and always?

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 03:44PM | 0 recs
not getting it

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 01:56PM | 0 recs
not getting it

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: not getting it

sorry triple post

by freemansfarm 2008-02-02 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I happen to agree. 1000 delegates or above is what she needs to acheive on Super Tuesday. Anything lower can be claimed as  victory by Obama and MSNBC. Having said that, I think the race is a lot closer than we think, so I won't be surprised if it is a 50/50 split.

by RJEvans 2008-02-02 05:00AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

I should add, if that indeed is the outcome, Obama will have to win 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. There could be increasing pressure for him to drop out, or for him to drop out and for Clinton to choose him as the VP. The same can be said of Clinton. There could be pressure on her to drop out if she comes up short of Obama. If Obama wins Tuesday night, he is riding a huge wave to the nomination. Beating a Clinton is a big deal.

by RJEvans 2008-02-02 05:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

In sailing, if you're ahead, you just do whatever the guy behind you does; that way there's no chance that you'll misjudge the wind when he doesn't.

by brackdurf 2008-02-01 07:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

by DrGary 2008-02-01 07:59PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Just watched Hil on Tavis Smiley in the great city of LA! She was great; show was live. She said she wants both teams from NY to win the Super bowls; the one on Sunday and the other one on Tuesday (loose interpretation).

by India 2008-02-01 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Is there a rerun , missed it.

by lori 2008-02-01 09:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

Funny, I'm rooting for the insurgent vs the inevitable in both cases, which has me picking the Giants too.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-01 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

She'll definitely be in NY on the evening of the 4th--she's hosting the national town hall from there.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-01 10:19PM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

The fact that HRC has been forced to spend so much time this late in CA and has cut an ad for Arkansas tells me they see significant erosion in what were solid state her until fairly recently.

La Opinion has endorsed Obama.  That, along with the Kennedy endorsement, and the LA rally with Caroline Kennedy, Oprah, and Michelle Obama will move hispanic and women voters toward Obama.

Clinton is still the front-runner, but Obama has moved quite a lot and will do well enough to survive Super Tuesday in good shape.  And then the next set of contests will be good ones for him.

by mainelib 2008-02-02 04:02AM | 0 recs
Re: The run-up to Feb 5th

And CA independents can vote in the Democratic primary, not the Republican ones.

by mainelib 2008-02-02 04:03AM | 0 recs

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