California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

Please Support MyDD Today

Some big endorsements for Obama today. First of all it's confirmed that California SEIU, which had previously endorsed John Edwards has now switched its endorsement to Barack Obama. This means invaluable boots on the ground in the form of both phone banking and precinct walking operations on the part of this 600,000 plus strong union.

In addition, MoveOn.org has decided to endorse Obama as well. The grassroots organization that this offers him nationally can not be underestimated. From their press release:

In a resounding vote today, MoveOn.org Political Action's members nationwide voted to endorse Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for President. The group, with 3.2 million members nationwide and over 1.7 million members in Super Tuesday states, will immediately begin to mobilize on behalf of Senator Obama. The vote favored Senator Obama to Senator Clinton by 70.4% to 29.6%.

Senator Obama accepted the endorsement stating:

"In just a few years, the members of MoveOn have once again demonstrated that real change comes not from the top-down, but from the bottom-up. From their principled opposition to the Iraq war - a war I also opposed from the start - to their strong support for a number of progressive causes, MoveOn shows what Americans can achieve when we come together in a grassroots movement for change. I thank them for their support and look forward to working with their members in the weeks and months ahead." [...]

Organizers said they would "immediately" begin mobilizing on behalf of Obama, leading turnout programs and phone-banking members of MoveOn in targeted states. The group made seven million "GOTV" calls for Democrats in the mid-term elections, and it has an extensive voter file database.

Not shocking of course that Obama would win the educated liberal primary over Clinton, as both the MoveOn and Nation endorsements indicate; that they'd put their considerable names and reputations behind him and try to galvanize their members and readers behind him is notable, however.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, MoveOn, seuiu (all tags)

Comments

104 Comments

Re: Stoller's update

Matt Stoller adds some interesting info over at Open Left:

I just spoke with Ilyse Hogue, communications director for Moveon, and she tells me that the group is going to mobilize volunteers for Obama in key states and use call for change technology.  That's the stuff that lets their members do phone-banking with their browsers to targeted individuals, and often what Moveon will do with this is have Moveon members in non-key states call other Moveon members in key states for GOTV.  We'll see what they do.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=3572

by DPW 2008-02-01 07:33AM | 0 recs
MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

To the Independents and Republicans that Obama is bringing to the table, is the MoveOn.org endorsement a positive development?

by wasabi 2008-02-01 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

Everything to Everyone.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

MoveOn isn't well know among Republicans outside of Washington, DC, Limbaugh, and Hannity. It's not universally hated across the country. Most independents and Republicans that Obama is reaching couldn't care less about those crazy internet kids.

by Kal 2008-02-01 07:39AM | 0 recs
Right

It's why I always thought the Patreus ad kerfluffle was such crap.

THe only people who care negatively about MoveOn.org won't be voting Democratic anyway... and we're actually not all that interested in trying to convince them to.

by zonk 2008-02-01 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

Well he has Ted Kennedy's support, the nation, and moveon.org. I don't think he's trying to shy away from the liberal label. He's trying to embrace it. After all, he has the most liberal voting record in the senate.

If this alienates republicans and independents, then so be it.

by proudtobeliberal 2008-02-01 07:42AM | 0 recs
Exactly

The Obama campaign has pivoted quite smartly.

Through IA and NH -- the underground attack on Obama was that he was too "moderate", too middle-of-the-road.

With Ted -- and now with Moveon -- he's pivoting to make himself acceptable to the traditional liberal base of the party.

More and more -- I'm really hoping Democrats are taking note of the Obama campaign.  Even if he doesn't ultimately close the deal and overtake Clinton -- I think there are some really great positive, "we should use this again", lessons to be learned from Team Obama.

For a change - I really do feel like we have a very good campaign team on our side.

by zonk 2008-02-01 07:45AM | 0 recs
Obama Disbuting The Nat'l Journal Designation

Obama Pushback on National Journal Rankings

The Obama campaign is taking serious issue with the National Journal rankings of him as the most liberal Senator in 2007. ABC

Doesn't sound like he is trying to embrace it to me.

by MOBlue 2008-02-01 08:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Disbuting The Nat'l Journal Designation

You can't stand next to Ted Kennedy while he endorses you for the presidency and NOT be embracing liberalism.

The key to pushing back at things like the NJ rankings is that it allows him to look at Independents and Moderate republicans and say "I'm not that liberal," while giving a wink and a nod to his own party.

You may not like it; it may seem disingenuous but it is smart campaigning.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:07AM | 0 recs
Personally, I Would Prefer More Progressive

policies like Universal Health Insurance and not identifing Social Security as in a state of crisis over TK's endorsement. To me the TK endorsement is a wink and a nod to appear liberal while running to the right in the primary. But all things are open to interpretation.

by MOBlue 2008-02-01 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama


How many people think the members of MoveOn  (I am one) that voted in their primary, are going to change their vote based on the MoveOn poll/endorsement?

How many people think the other members of MoveOn are going to be swayed by the endorsement?

How many people in America do you think will be persuaded by MoveOn's endorsement?

Personally, I suspect it will have little effect on people's votes (for or against).

by joc 2008-02-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

I don't think the press release announcing the endorsement is going to make a difference. I do, however, think that the hundreds of thousands of new volunteers calling people on Obama's behalf will be good for a few points on election day.

by Kal 2008-02-01 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

Kal, thats clearly the way it would make a difference. I don't know that it will; the thing about gotv is that the work you do in the last 72 hours is only valuable if you've identified and communicated with your supporters well in the weeks prior. An endorsement like Kennedy's in the last week is valuable because it generates a lot of news coverage; an organizational endorsement like SEIU or MoveOn is of much less value in the final week because the organizational resources and money are less likely to be felt.

That said, a) its going to be very close in CA and nationally so it could indeed tip the balance for him and b) its highly likely this race is going to continue for several more weeks and if Obama can merely stay in the game after Tuesday (which seems increasingly likely) this kind of support could be helpful to him in the subsequent primaries.

by desmoulins 2008-02-01 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

I agree.  I think CA will be key to watch since it is so big it will look like the nation as a whole on 2/5, I think.

Of course, time zones mean we will see a lot of other stuff first.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:02AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

"the thing about gotv is that the work you do in the last 72 hours is only valuable if you've identified and communicated with your supporters well in the weeks prior"

Is there any reason to believe that this groundwork has not been layed? Based on what I have seen of the Obama campaign I would guess that there GOTV program is going to be pretty solid and that having the Moveon volunteers would be a big help.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:09AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

When he didn't have a year to build it up it wasn't enough in NV or NH.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:13AM | 0 recs
NV and NH

Obama actually had staff in those states for a long, long time. It wasn't just a 72 hour operation. Yes some people moved out of Iowa to other places, but the structure for the most part was in place in NH and NV. Obama was outmaneuvered in those two states, but on the otherhand he outmaneuvered Clinton quite handily in IA and SC. Some states will inevitably have more effective organizations than others. Obama has had campaign structures in the Super Tuesday states for a long time, they were training organizers here in New York way back at the beginning of last summer.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: NV and NH

He didn't outmaneuver Clinton in SC, she put her operation in the hands of Donnie Fowler and the AA minister machine but otherwise ignored the state. He ran a real field operation, which hopefully broke the back of the traditional SC institutions.

He always had the anti-war advantage in IA, which was why she considered writing off IA at first.

But neither of those wins killed her off. Of all the candidates Clinton is the one who invested most in a national operation, in a few days we will see if it paid off.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: NV and NH

Whatever the merits of their voter ID program here in NV (and I think it was much less successful, at least in Clark, than it could have been given the resources they put in), my point was that California's primary electorate is over 50 times larger and whatever field presence anyone has had in CA is certainly significantly smaller than what they had in earlier states.

On top of which the Obama campaign can't give its voter file to MoveOn or SEIU to call.

by desmoulins 2008-02-01 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

CA SEIU has no doubt identified Edwards people they can GOTV, who those people will vote for is a question.

MoveOn has done Democratic id for GOTV, but core Dems support Clinton. I'm sure they have not done any Obama specific. My impression is that Obama has focused more on TV than list building for Feb 5th and beyond, so I don't know how much guidance they have to give to MoveOn. Also I'm not sure if coordination is legal in a primary.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama


One of the issues of it being MoveOn is that the people who are members tend toward the more politically active. I'm just thinking that there won't be that much of a swing in terms of loyalties from MoveOn's endorsement. More generally than just voting, I don't see that there will be "hundreds of thousands of new volunteers calling on Obama's behalf" because of this. I think that number will be on the shy side of 1,000 new people helping out.

Maybe the MoveOn software will be able to make the people who shift to using it (instead of more standard phone bank techniques) will increase their efficiency. But I wouldn't get my hopes up for a large wave of Obama-mania due to MoveOn.

by joc 2008-02-01 12:21PM | 0 recs
I didn't vote in their primary

because I didn't want to choose between Obama and Clinton.

I don't think many people will change their minds because of this.

If Edwards were still in the race, it might have tipped a few people from Edwards to Obama, but not many, I suspect.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-01 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

Big tent.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 07:57AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

No, it isn't. And you can bet in the GE, if Obama gets the nod (and I don't think he will)...the repubs will make sure that everyone knows who Moveon.org is and paint them in the worst possible light. That add will be everywhere.

I do believe this is an endorsement Hillary can be happy she does not have. Not all their members voted, I should know I am one, and they are losing some over this.

by americanincanada 2008-02-01 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Wow.  I'm actually surprised he was able to get 2/3 of the MoveOn vote, that was a pretty high bar.  I think it's foolish for them to get involved in the middle of the primary and possibly alienate the Clinton supporters, but I'll gladly take it.  Mobilization of 3.2 members, or even the 2.2 who voted for Barack is nothing to dismiss as simply the educated liberals.

by Piuma 2008-02-01 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Well, I don't think he got 2.2 million votes.

I am a MoveOn member and  Hillary Clinton supporter and I didn't even know the poll was going on.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

If you  take the vote as a sampling of the membership it would be that number.  How could you not know there was the vote?  They emailed ballots to everyone yesterday.

by Piuma 2008-02-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

I didn't get it.

I know you just did the proportional thing, I was just making the point it is not necessarily a representative sample.

It makes intuitive sense that Obama gets a lot of MoveOn support because of his 'all things to all people' message, but you just never know.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:45AM | 0 recs
Junk Mail

It probably ended up in your Junk Mail box since it was a mass mailing.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 07:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Junk Mail

I had to dig mine out of spam.

by desmoulins 2008-02-01 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Junk Mail

Not there. Who knows.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:06AM | 0 recs
MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

I tend to believe that the majority of MoveOn members are educated liberals.  I think the working class base is more concerned with day-to-day issues and might not know  about an internet organization.

by wasabi 2008-02-01 07:45AM | 0 recs
Clear To Me

The Hillary's Bloggers army that has taken over this website is a very small slice of the liberal activist base of the Democratic Party. I don't think MoveOn is concerned in the least about alienating Clinton supporters. In fact, I would guess that the 29% of MoveOn members who voted for Clinton are not the kind of irrational Obama haters who frequent MyDD.

MoveOn is concerned about making sure our nominee is someone their members are passionate about supporting, and is someone who can speak forcefully not only about changing our domestic policy but also about changing our foreign policy. As we saw in last night's debate, Hillary has a massive handicap when it comes to the later.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 07:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear To Me

Well, I am a MoveOn member and a Clinton supporter who posts here.  I don't necessarily feel 'alienated,' but I certainly think MoveOn looks foolish because they buy the Obama spin that he would somehow deliver on progressive values when I think the opposite would be true.  I think he would sell us out.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:49AM | 0 recs
No Evidence

Show me some evidence that suggests Obama would sell us out. You have no reason to believe that, except that it's the line Hillary Clinton surrogates are pushing. Look back at his record. There is no doubt that Obama has a more progressive policy record than Hillary Clinton, from decriminalization of marijuana to the war in Iraq to his early support for single-payer healthcare.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 07:53AM | 0 recs
I don't support Hillary

but I also think Obama would sell us out.

He continually talks about finding common-sense solutions that are supposedly not partisan-based. That sounds like a recipe for moving halfway to the Republican position.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-01 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't support Hillary

Since when does the Republican position embrace "common-sense solutions"?

by Piuma 2008-02-01 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

Look at his record, it shows how he will sell progressivism out. Even Chris Hayes' Nation endorsement points this out, hardly a Clinton surrogate.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 07:57AM | 0 recs
Clearly Wrong Here

Why on earth would a Nation endorsement of Obama tout his potential to sell-out progressivism? Hayes' article debunks the false notion that you and so many others here are desperately clinging onto. He explains that Obama is making an attempt to appeal to Republican and Independent voters by talking straight to them and treating them with respect. He's not trying to curry favor with Republican operatives, and he's not backing away from progressive policies. Yes, the article concludes that voting for Obama is a "roll of the dice" in that we can't necessarily predict what he'll do as President. But he essentially turns the "roll of the dice" argument back on the Clintons by pointing out that Hillary Clinton isn't guaranteed to succeed in enacting progressive policies either.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 08:05AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

Look what you just said:

"his early support for single-payer healthcare."

Where exactly is that support now?  He isn't even for a universal mandate.

demoinesdem is right -- one of Obama's whole points is he will reach out.  I think bipartisanship is a virtue, but there are higher virtues which are core elements of the progressive agenda.

What do the Republicans have to add to the debate on healthcare, economic stimulus, Iraq, taxes, social security, human rights, etc?

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:59AM | 0 recs
They Have Nothing To Add To The Debate

You're misunderstanding Obama's strategy here. He is clearly attempting to woo moderate Republican VOTERS--not politicians--in order to win a Democratic majority large enough to enact major progressive legislation that would otherwise be difficult to pass. He's never said, "Let's see what health care plan the Republicans come up with and then go from there." Just last night he said, regarding healthcare, let's convene a healthcare summit. We'll air it on C-SPAN, and have experts publicly debunk insurance lobbyists faulty claims and essentially shame legislators into voting against the lobbyists. Doesn't that make sense to you intellectually?

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 08:10AM | 0 recs
Re: They Have Nothing To Add To The Debate

No.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: They Have Nothing To Add To The Debate

Until I heard Obama bring that up in the debate I thought that was just some crazy scenario tossed around by overenthusiastic Obama supporters.  Look, I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but it sounds like the most unrealistic notion I ever heard.

I am confident that an argument between our experts and the other side's experts will not lead to a conclusive result in the court of public opinion.  Nothing will even be clarified.

by Steve M 2008-02-01 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

I might be alone here and I will admit it is possible that I have misunderstood the healthcare thing. But my understanding is that Obama's plan will make it affordable for anyone WHO WANTS TO to have access to quality healthcare.

That is how I have heard it explained. If this is accurate please explain to me the purpose of forcing health coverage, quality or otherwise, on someone who is choosing not to buy into it.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:13AM | 0 recs
by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

Costs will not come down unless you have everybody buying into the plan. It's called spreading the risk. You are still going to have cost shifting going on which will increase the costs to those who have insurance. Also, Obama's plan will end up costing more because without the healthy helping to offset the costs of the sick, the premiums will be sky high.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

I disagree with your premise. Most healthy people will still want healthcare. It will be relatively few who do not. Heck, I haven't been to a doctor in three years but I am glad I have healthcare.

The idea that most healthy people would opt out is absurd.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

Most healthy people can already get healthcare if they want it or can afford it. Obama's plan does nothing to make it more affordable and makes it likely that it will cost more. When you put larger amounts of high risk patients into the pool without increasing the amount of healthy people into the risk pool your costs are going to skyrocket. Therefore, more healthy people will be dropping the coverage because it's too expensive. He's basically created a plan that will costs lots of money and still have lots of people uninsured.

PS. I worked in the insurance industry so I know what I speak about here. Obama hasn't got a clue about risk and cost assessment.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 08:41AM | 0 recs
Re: No Evidence

He's using Republican talking points against universal coverage therefore he's going to make it impossible for him to get it through. The GOP will use this against him.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 08:09AM | 0 recs
No Way

The GOP is somehow going to slam Obama for being too much like the GOP? What good would that do them? Do you really think the GOP is going to be able to convince Democrats not to vote for the Democratic candidate?

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 08:11AM | 0 recs
Re: No Way

They are going to use his own words to defeat his plan. After all, he said he wanted mandates for children right?

GOP: Obama wants to force you to buy insurance. He is defining mandates as forcing someone to buy insurance therefore killing off his own plan. Stupid.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-01 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear To Me

Sell us out?

....Like what Bill Clinton did on welfare reform? Telecom deregulation? Bank deregulation, the source of our current market turmoil?

Sounds to me like a recipe for HRC to me more of a potential sell-out than Obama.

There is no basis I know of to claim Obama will sell anyone out, although it's possible we won't succeed.

by wolff109 2008-02-01 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear To Me

Let's be clear about this:

You're talking about the MoveOn MEMBERS, not the activists behind the site, because the activists who run MoveOn don't make all that many decisions without membership support.

So what you're really arguing here--let's not mince words--is you think that the majority of MoveOn MEMBERS look foolish and are getting fleeced by Obama.  It's not the national group that would be 'buying the spin,' but the people who voted (which, just an estimate, would probably be around 10-15% of the people who received the email).

by Jay R 2008-02-01 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Clear To Me

Yes, that is my point.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:59AM | 0 recs
Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Away

How foolish of MoveOn.

Clinton voted against condemning MoveOn's "Betray-us" ad, while Obama ran out on the vote.

MoveOn's endorsement sends a message to politicians everywhere that you can turn your back on their organization and still receive their endorsement.

by BigBoyBlue 2008-02-01 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

I guess that wasn't that big of an issue to all the MoveOn.org members who voted yesterday. It's not like this decision was made by a few big-wigs on top.

by Kal 2008-02-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

Obama's non-vote was a principled stand which was correct.  Barbara Boxer had it right - it never should have been something for the Senate to get involved in.

by Piuma 2008-02-01 07:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

How many major national debates will Obama sit out as President because it is a principled stand?

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:46AM | 0 recs
That Was A Bullshit Issue

Major national debate my ass. Excuse the vulgarity.

I personally cancelled my MoveOn membership over that idiotic move. The ad backfired badly, it did more harm than good to the cause of ending the war.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-02-01 07:48AM | 0 recs
Re: That Was A Bullshit Issue

You prove my point.

The MoveOn debate was a major issue, for better or worse.  Hillary took a stand.  Obama was 'in absentia,' which he is far too often.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

If it is a debate that we shouldn't be having sitting out says thats what you believe. I for one think every Democratic Senator should have sat that one out and issued a statement saying effectively "this is not an appropriate manner for the U.S. Senate to debate. We should be focusing on the policy, rather than the politics, of the war."

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

I am just getting tired of Obama giving praise to republicans constantly.  Mostly Reagan.  There are plenty of democrats he could be giving praise to and calling out good things they have done besides giving republicans the shout out.  

by Scope441 2008-02-01 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Stood Up For MoveOn When Obama Ran Awa

What constant praise?  He made a comment to an editorial board, which them released a video of it, and got asked about it in a subsequent debate.  How is that 'constant'?

by Jay R 2008-02-01 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Everything sure seems to be going Obama's way the last two weeks, huh?

South Carolina, the Kennedy endorsement, California SEIU, MoveOn, and closing in the latest polls.

I honestly thought he would be in a much tougher position right now, struggling to justify going past 2/5. Now there's no doubt in my mind that this will still be a hyper-competitive race on 2/6.

by Kal 2008-02-01 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

There's a lot of cherry picking of polls going on over there.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-01 07:48AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Not to mention ignoring 1.7 million Florida Democrats, almost 900,000 of whom voted for Clinton.

Yes, yes, debate Florida all you want.  It shows there is a huge base for her among Democrats.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Yep and nobody voted for Obama right?

The reality is that because there was no active campaign on the ground in Florida there is no way to tell how it would have turned out under normal circumstances... and if you have a problem with the delegate situation you should take it up with the state party.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Actually, the state party did not move the primary.  It was the Republican-controlled state legislature.

I am not making a point about the delegates.

Yes, over 500,000 people voted for Obama -- that is great!

The point is there have been very good signs for Clinton as well.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Amen!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-01 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

It'll "seem" a lot different on Tuesday night when one state after another goes for Hillary.  They may end up somewhat close in delegates, but if the networks call states for Hillary 15 or 16 times on Tuesday night, it will be a huge psychological win.

by DemJedi 2008-02-01 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

A psychological win isn't going to matter at this point. The momentum generate from early primary wins matters up until Super Tuesday but from there on in it is all about delegates. If it is close in delegates than it will be competitive all the way through to the convention.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Psychology matters for money.  Yes, I know, Obama says he has raised $32 million this month. But we don't know how much debt he has to pay off from the past month.

by DemJedi 2008-02-01 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

Obama has at no point showed a problem with fundraising I don't see Super Tuesday changing that.

by JDF 2008-02-01 11:45AM | 0 recs
Agreed

I still think he ultimately "loses" Super Tuesday... but I think it's now gonna be by less than 100 delegates.

A nearly imperceptable difference/tie would no longer shock me.

I think Hillary Clinton herself, her campaign, and her built-in advantages are too much and too good to overcome -- I see no chance Obama wins 2/5 outright (either in the sense of 'wrapping up' the nomination, nor in just winning more delegates).... but a tie?  I'm starting to think it's not the impossibility I thought earlier this week.

The turf looks much better for Obama post 2/5.

I don't think the polls have caught up to the race yet -- I really think we're now in clear 50-50 toss-up territory.

I almost wish I wasn't a candidate partisan... because this would just be fun to watch!

by zonk 2008-02-01 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Agreed

I am a Clinton supporter but I think Obama has had a good week.  It will be close.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Agreed

I think you are the first Clinton supporter on this site to be able to say something like that... not that many of Obama's supporters have been so reasoned either.

by JDF 2008-02-01 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Agreed

I would also say it's 50/50. I gave Clinton a 50% chance she would win the nomination back in early December, and I still think that's about right.

Maybe Obama's 15 delegate advantage going into 2/5 will make all the difference. :p

by Kal 2008-02-01 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

MoveOn and last night's debate pushes Iraq back to the front burner where it belongs.

by Piuma 2008-02-01 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

More than anything, I think McCain's win in Florida pushed it back into the spotlight.  If "Hundred Years" McCain is the nominee, we need to be hitting the Iraq comparatives pretty heavily.

by Jay R 2008-02-01 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU and MoveOn.org To Endorse Obam

To many "middle ideology" americans, moveon doesn't have a favorable image at all...

by werd2406 2008-02-01 07:46AM | 0 recs
Correction:

To many "middle ideology" Americans, Moveon doesn't have any image at all.

by Kal 2008-02-01 08:22AM | 0 recs
Education and reputation

"Not shocking of course that Obama would win the educated liberal primary over Clinton, as both the MoveOn and Nation endorsements indicate. . ."

I wasn't aware that one needed a high level of education to become a member of MoveOn. From looking at their web site, anyone with an email address can join. Do you have any data whatsoever to back up your claim that its members are any more "educated" than average? I can't find any.

". . .that they'd put their considerable names and reputations behind him and try to galvanize their members and readers behind him is notable, however."

Actually, both MoveOn and the Nation are pretty much moribund institutions. Neither their "names" nor their "reputations" are held in a great regard in liberal, or any other, circles. So, I don't find it particularly "notable" that they would try to drum a little favorable PR by associating themselves with the flavor of the month.

by freemansfarm 2008-02-01 07:49AM | 0 recs
timing like Culinary

It comes too late to have much on the ground impact for Feb 5th, might make a difference later. The MoveOn members who would be inclined to make calls for Obama already are. Same with CA SEIU.

These are more media hits, and self promotion for MoveOn, than endorsements that put a machine in gear for Feb 5th.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 07:52AM | 0 recs
But

The thing is -- Obama's campaign is not one that really needs the help on the ground.  They've already got the groundgame and infrastructure in place and working.

What Obama needs now - more than anything - is media buzz.  He needs to keep consistently winning news cycles.  By battling to a more or less tie last night in a 1 on 1 -- and then getting these 2 endorsements today -- he's probably in good shape for the last pre-SuperBowl news cycle...

It's cyncial - but what this endorsement gives Obama is exactly what he wants -- headlines.  He's already got the boots.

by zonk 2008-02-01 08:04AM | 0 recs
buzz?

I don't think media buzz has ever been Obama's problem.

He has plenty of boots, the question is can he get them walking in the right direction. Clinton focused very heavily on the early vote, she has already banked a significant advantage in CA, so she has a much smaller GOTV hill to climb on election day. His stated strategy is to focus on smaller Feb 5th states, but it looks like that idea has gone out the window.

by souvarine 2008-02-01 08:39AM | 0 recs
Think about after 2/5

This is still going to be a hyper-competitive after Super Tuesday. Moveon could help with identifying voters, spreading the word, and GOTV in Washington, Virginia, DC, Maryland, Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, etc.

by Kal 2008-02-01 08:25AM | 0 recs
MoveON

If the progressive movement wants to know why it can't get any traction with elected officials, all it has to do is look at the MoveOn endorsement.  Obama skips out on the vote on the censure of them and he still gets their endorsement.  

by BDB 2008-02-01 07:59AM | 0 recs
Amen n/t

by MOBlue 2008-02-01 08:09AM | 0 recs
MoveOn.org To Endorse Obama

joc,

I don't think many people are going to change their mind about who to vote for based on MoveOn's endorsement.  But the real significance of getting support from a powerhouse organization like MoveOn.org is that they can put their very sophisticated database and their human and financial resources to work at helping to register new voters and turn out the vote for Obama.  This is a huge deal, and I imagine they are jumping for joy at Obama HQ.  Combine this with the endorsement of the California Service Employees Union, and we're talking real, on-the-ground horsepower for Obama.

by global yokel 2008-02-01 08:03AM | 0 recs
Nahhh...

As I said above, Obama's already got the "boots" and the infrastructure, he's got something on the order of 3 times as many field offices up and running than HRC.  If you remove NY from the equation, it's close to 4 or 5 to 1.

I'm not saying MoveOn's db/resources won't help -- I guess they can't hurt -- but he didn't really need that type of stuff.

What this gives him is a headline -- and that matters to him right.

I'd say ditto the SEIU - though I understand they're bigger CA union that might mean something on the groudn.

Either way -- I think Team Obama is happier about the headlines than the boots or any feeling that this moves votes.

by zonk 2008-02-01 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Nahhh...

But even the 'boots on the ground' thing takes time.

As we saw in Nevada, Obama sent his Iowa director and field director to Nevada and opened a slew of offices, but it wasn't enough because it takes time, even when you drop in a cohesive team.

At the time, observers on both sides noted that Nevada would help give a feel for 2/5 states since there is such little turnaround time to get your infrastructures up and running in them.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Nahhh...

BUt since we're in a delegate race - he did win NV.  He won rural NV.  If anything "failed him" in Nevada - it was probably the CWU endorsement not being able to bring home Las Vegas for him... which again speaks to what I'm saying -- the ground games/orgs of Moveon and SEIU probably don't do much for Obama... but I think the headlines do.

by zonk 2008-02-01 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Nahhh...

Well, since we are going into all primaries, if the NV result is duplicated in all 2/5 states, Clinton will be the nominee.

by rcipw 2008-02-01 08:29AM | 0 recs
Obama didn't take a stand for MoveOn.org!!

Remember that during the "General Betray Us" fiasco a few months ago, there was a stupid Senate vote to criticize MoveOn.org for the NYT ad ...

HILLARY VOTED NO.

OBAMA DID NOT VOTE AT ALL.

He was given an opportunity to defend Petraeus's critics, but he decided to play it safe.

by Sieglinde 2008-02-01 08:03AM | 0 recs
I just cancelled my membership

with MoveOn.

by steveinohio 2008-02-01 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: I just cancelled my membership

So since a large majority of members disagree with you over one issue, you're taking your ball and going home?

Nice.  Bet you've been one of their big guns up until now, huh?

by Jay R 2008-02-01 08:59AM | 0 recs
Re: I just cancelled my membership

He's like me I think they should have stayed neutral and yes if he and I want to take our ball home we can. After all these and other blogs have been full of threats from Obamanauts not to vote for Clinton if she's the nominee so what's that if not taking your ball home.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 09:07AM | 0 recs
Moveon will never get another cent from me.

No surprise at all but actually this is a dumb move on their part. At least half their cash must come from Clinton supporters and I suspect it will be some time before it's forgotten if ever. They'd have been much better staying neutral.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-01 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn Endorses Obama

It is the war and her vote for it contrasted with his early opposition was the difference in my opinion.

by BDM 2008-02-01 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: MoveOn Endorses Obama

Agreed. Moveon has always pushed the war hard, and it reflects in their membership. I think that played a big part.

by J Ro 2008-02-01 10:56AM | 0 recs
are there any obama thinkers?

You have the most right wing democrats supporting Obama

and now

the most left wing democrats supporting obama.

Someone is going to be disappointed.

This is what happens when a person lies about "big change" without actually offering big change.

I would guess it is the move on crowd and the left that would be dissed.

I know you don't care, as long as he wins, but I thought that was the difference with the Obama campaign?

by yellowdem1129 2008-02-01 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: are there any obama thinkers?

It'll be good on some issues and bad on others - as would be the case with any candidate with reasonable chances.  What we're supporting in Obama is a resurgence of the belief that you can make a difference by organizing and that government can be a positive force - a sentiment which has been dead for four decades, but which can lead to lasting reforms at all levels of government.  This is an opportunity, and the question is whether we want to squander it.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 09:07AM | 0 recs
SEIU Steward

As I said in the other thread, my wife is a union steward in SEIU (SoCal) and got word of the endorsement today. She was furious with the Obama endorsement and made her views known to SEIU leadership.

I know there are a lot of women and Latinos in SEIU, apart from the AA male leadership, and a lot of them are solidly behind Clinton. Overall, though, I really don't think these union endorsements hold the power they once did. If anything, people seem to resent being told how to vote by unions that already take a big chunk out of their weekly paychecks and give them very little in return. There is a lot of defiance.

As for MoveOn.org, that isn't an endorsement I'd want. It will do nothing in the primary and will only hurt him in the general election.

by cc 2008-02-01 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: California SEIU

Agreed. Moveon.org could hurt him badly in the general. Even though I don't think he'll be there.

As far as big union support, I think after Neveda it doesn't mean what it once did. People are not going to be told how to vote by their unions, especially is the decision is made by leadership and not the rank and file.

by americanincanada 2008-02-01 12:08PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads


----------- myDD - skin -----------