Some interesting happenings in my homestate. Promoted by Texas Nate

With former Texas Comptroller John Sharp's announcement today that he is in the race for the seat that U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to abandon as early as this June to pursue her runfor governor, all eyes are turning to Texas and the prospects of Democrats  picking up another U.S. Senate seat between election cycles.

Since 2006, speculationhasmounted that Hutchison would abandon her safe senate seat to take on Governor Rick Perry in the 2010 GOP Primary for Governor. Hutchison toyed with the idea of making a similar run in 2002 and 2006 and ultimately made neither race. This time, however, she seems to be making the race for real, having formally formed an exploratory committee and populated it with a  million dollars from her bloated campaign warchest.

Most politicos believe that Hutchison will abandon her seat in June of  2009--after the 81st Session of the Texas Legislature concludes and when statewide campaigns traditionally kick off. Hutchison, however  has debunked this by saying she does not intend to step down before  the end of 2009. It is possible, but not likely, that Hutchison could hold her Senate seat through the 2010 GOP Primary and not resign until after she wins the primary (if she does) or until after she wins a general election. There is actually precedent in Texas History for a sitting U.S. Senator holding the seat until the day they took office to become governor. There has been no indication from the Hutchison camp, however, that she would hold on to the seat if she was unsuccessful in the governor's race, or that she would stay in office beyond 2009.

Either way, the seat will be up for grabs, be it in 2009, 2010, or--worst case scinario--in 2012 when her term expires.

There are a lot of factors to consider when it comes to making this race a "pick up" for Democrats: whether the seat is decided in a special election or is on the ballot in 2010 (i.e., when Perry decides to set the election); who Perry appoints as a placeholder if Hutchison does resign; and who gets in the race.

Right now, the only really sure thing is that Sharp is in. Hutchison, for all of her posturing, could, as she has in the past, wuss out of a face-to-face primary against Perry. Republican leaders in Texas are already sounding alarm bells that such a vicious and well-moneyed primary could cause a schism in the party and endanger the GOP's general election chances further.

An Election, But When?

This all depends upon Hutchison and the timing of her resignation. Under Texas law, there are several options that exist with regard to placeholder nominations and elections in such cases. If Hutchison submits her resignation on or before January 1 of an even-numbered (general election) year and on or before the 62nd day before the primary election, the unexpired term will be on the ballot for the next general election. Whether or not a party primary would come in to play would further depend upon the date of the resignation and require a lengthy trek into Texas Election Law to explain how, if the primary does not come into play, the party nominees are determined (by nominating at the state convention or the State Democratic Executive Committee).

If Hutchison resigns during in an odd-numbered year, a special election will be called just as in any other instance. The same would be true if she resigned after the 62nd day before the primary in an  even-numbered election year.

Perry gets to appoint someone to fill the vacancy if and only if the vacancy exists or will exist while Congress is in session. Given the business before congress, it is very unlikely that Congress will not be in session at some point while the seat is vacant pending a special election, meaning Perry will get to appoint a placeholder.

Special Election versus General Election

If the timing of a resignation triggers a special election, it is literally a free-for-all.

People from any political party can file (not just R's and D's, actually). In previous Special Elections for U.S. Senate in Texas, as many as 71 candidates have filed; in 1992, when Hutchison first won the seat in a special election, 24 candidates were on the ballot. In such instances, if no candidate garners in excess of 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters (regardless of party affiliation) wind up in a runoff.

If the timing of the resignation allows the race to be put on the next general election ballot, the race is slated for the next available general election, then typical party primary rules would apply depending upon the timing of the resignation (see above), with Republicans and Democrats holding separate primaries (and the Libertarian Party nominating their candidate--no other parties presently have ready ballot access in Texas) and the victors in those races going on to the general election.

In all honesty, there probably is not one or the other of these methods that favors Democrats over Republicans significantly. To some degree, however, having the election to name Hutchison's successor on the 2010 ballot along with the governor's race and a host of statewide posts probably favors Democrats because the eventual candidate will benefit from coordinated campaign efforts in the state's largest urban counties. However, a resignation timed to trigger putting the post on the 2010 ballot would also give whomever Perry appoints to the seat an advantage of having been in the Senate longer.

A Special Election could favor Democrats depending upon when it is called. If it is called to coincide with, say, a constitutional amendment election in late 2009, that would be particularly bad if there was a constitutional amendment which was controversial and drew out a large number of conservative voters. If it is called to coincide with a so-called uniform election date when mayoral races and city council races are on the ballot, it could be beneficial for Democrats if there are marquee candidates in large municipalities with Democratic constituencies running (municipal races in Texas are, however, non-partisan).

Who Gets Appointed?

There is no question the placeholder will be a Republican. Here are some of Perry's options with regard to an appointment:

Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. This is the most likely option--no matter when Hutchison resigns. Why? Because Perry can't afford Dewhurst in a GOP Primary for Governor in 2010--with or without Kay Bailey Hutchison. Plus, Dewhurst's massive personal fortune would help him hold the seat provided he makes it to a runoff if Hutchison's resignation triggers a special election. That isn't a sure thing, though, given there could be as many as 20 candidates jump into the eventual special election race. On the downside, Dewhurst is presently under investigation as a result of his personal financial disclosure filings which may be in violation of state law. Assuming that investigation doesn't result in criminal charges, Perry will likely let Dwhurst sink or swim on his own.

Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams. One advantage he has is that he doesn't have a legislative record he can be attacked on--just the fact that he is in the pocket of the petrochemical industry. Another advantage is that it makes a Republican ticket look more diverse (important if Perry sets a special election to coincide with the 2010 November General Election).
Disadvantages include that Williams brings a special set of negatives
to the table. Unlike any other potential pick, Williams is the only candidate who could be subjected to TV attack ads that accuse him of leading a state agency and being asleep at the wheel while people blew up in their homes. When posed in contrast to other candidates simply voting on a financial industry bailout...well, you get the idea.

State Senator Florence Shapiro (R-Plano). Shapiro is essentially the favorite right now--but not for an appointment, rather as the GOP standardbearer in an election. Don't look for Shapiro to get the appointment, though. However, moderately conservative Republican women (and some Republican women in general) will demand that Perry replace Hutchison with another woman. If that becomes a groundswell, look for Shapiro to be going head-to-head in the nomination process against Elizabeth Ames Jones.

Elizabeh Ames Jones. Her big chance here comes if Perry wants to appoint someone who will under no circumstances have a chance at winning the seat. Although this former interior decorator spent time in the Legislature, she lacks any substantive public policy background that makes her qualified enough to hold the appointment--unless as a placeholder that Perry wants to lose. She does, however, have a decent sized campaign warchest.

Henry Bonillia. The former Republican Congressman from San Antonio is reportedly on several GOP short lists. Some, however, would like to see Bonillia run only if he agrees no to run in the special election. Others see him as another option for diversity for the Party.

Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt. Not likely, but he may be pushed by a lot of he anti-tax wingnut crowd. Of course, he just resigned, and there could be some embarassing lawsuits and Department of Justice actions that will tarnish his appeal.

State Sen. Dan Patrick. Another person Perry can appoint if he doesn't want the appointee to win. This is, however, an appointment that would keep Patrick off Perry's heels in the governor's race (or off the heels of a more well-established GOP officeholder for a down-ballot statewide race) and appease he right wing.

Congressman Joe Barton. He's already run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in he 1992 Special Election that gave Hutchison he post. The problem with Baron, though, is that he is the "past" of a Texas Republican Party that is looking for new faces. He's also go a long Congressional record opponents can seriously attack.

Congressman Jeb Hensarling. The Dallas Congressman is widely viewed--in Texas and nationally--as a rising conservative star. While he's a lock to run in a special election, don't look for him to get the appointment. Why? Because it would create a special election in a district that has a significant number of voters in Dallas County. There is some chance, and it isn't as remote as some think--that a Democrat could pick up this seat in a special election in an election year when Dallas County is running a major coordinated campaign effort if rural counties are able to up their Democratic numbers even a tad.

Who Will Run For Hutchison's Seat?

Again, timing is a factor. But you can probably take everyone from the list above and throw them into this mix on the Republican side.

However, there are some names who would be more likely to run than not: Michael L. Williams, Joe Barton, Jeb Hensarling, and Dewhurst. Ames Jones has already signaled her intentions to seek the seat, and Shapiro has already formed an exploratory committee and is essentially a lock to run. Williams, however, could opt to run for Lt. Governor or Attorney General if he doesn't want to subject himself to an excessively brutal primary. The other two wouldn't really be viable candidates for AG, and Ames Jones is not a viable candidate for Lieutenant Governor.

As for Democrats, John Sharp is, as we previously noted, a sure thing. Sharp has previously held statewide office, most recently as Texas Comptroller. He will have the cash, institutional support, and grassroots support to make the run. Plus, although more progressive than potential opponents like White, he has bi-partisan appeal which is necessary at this juncture to win in Texas--especially since a statewide victory will require inroads in conservative East and West Texas in order to boost expectedly blue numbers from the state's major urban metros.

As for the rest, none, aside from White, are particularly well-known statewide as Texas Democrats' bench remains sparse since the party has been out of power statewide since the 1990s and hasn't controlled either chamber of the legislature since 2003.

Houston Mayor Bill White seems to be toying with the idea of running for Hutchison's seat, although he could decide to seek the governorship--something that people view as more likely. If there is a 2009 special election, White may throw his hat into the ring if for no other reason than to raise his name idea for a run for the governorship. It seems very doubtful, however, that White would beat Sharp in a Democratic Primary race if the resignation was timed to trigger one. And, in a special election free-for-all, he would only pull votes from Sharp. Although Sharp is by no means a liberal Democrat, he is more progressive than White. And, there are some things--like White's close relationship with a former Enron executive--that are causing some Texas Democrats concern.

State Sen. Leticia Van De Putte (D-San Antonio) has been mentioned as someone who could make the move up to statewide office in the future. However, it seems unlikely that she'd give up a safe State Senate seat for this job, especially given that she may be that chamber's majority leader within a cycle or two. She lacks the name recognition that Sharp and White possess. She has also seen the national spotlight recently, as co-chair of the 2008 Democratic National Convetnion in Denver.

State Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Alpine). Gallego has little statewide name recognition, but a good record as a state legislator. He'd have a lot of hurdles to overcome to come out on top in this one, however. Too, he would not be someone that could unify the liberal and conservative wings of the party in Texas to secure a primary victory (again, if timing allowed for one) like Sharp could.

State Sen. Rodney Ellis (D-Houston). Ellis is reportedly ready to make a statewide run, but again doesn't have statewide name recognition (although he does have more than Gallego, without question, because of his work on criminal justice issues. A statewide run that isn't for a federal post is more likely in Ellis' future.

State Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin). Watson is and has been a rising star in the party for years. A former Austin Mayor, he made a staewide run as part of the failed 2002 "Dream Team" with Tony Sanchez and Sharp. Now holding a safe senate seat, Watson is more likely a candidate for Lt. Governor, but would be a formidible opponent should he make a senate run.

Barbara Ann Radnofsky. The Houston attorney who opposed Hutchison in 2006 is more likely a candidate for Attorney General in 2010.

Gene Kelly. Kelly, the perennial candidate with the same name as the dead dancer, has to be mentioned, simply because he will file as long as he's alive. In the past, he's cost good Democrats the Senate nomination. However, his name doesn't get him the currency it used to, as State Rep. Rick Noriega defeated him and another challenger, Ray McMurrey, a school teacher, in 2006 without a runoff.

Ray McMurrey. A Corpus Christi teacher, McMurrey may make another run for office, but is far from a candidate that the majority of folks on this list should be worried about.

Rafael Anchia. A Dallas State Representative, Texas Monthly last year deemed that Anchia would likely be the state's first statewide Latino elected official someday. It is doubtful, however, that will come in a special election for U.S. Senate. It may come in 2010, but, again, would not be in the Senate race. He would, however, be a very credible and quality candidate.

Ron Kirk. The former Dallas mayor was defeated by Cornyn in 2002--the last time a Senate seat from Texas was open. It is doubtful he'd seek the post.

Henry Cisneros. The former San Antonio Mayor and Clinton HUD Secretary has been mentioned as a statewide candidate. However, his troubles from the Clinton administration hand a Republican opponent ready-made opposition research, making a run difficult.