Tarrance projects a toss-up
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 06:47:25 AM EST
Oh boy. As you know, Battleground (pdf) is a polling firm done by a Democratic firm and a Republican firm. In 2004, the final of the Republican firm, Tarrance, nailed the actual vote-- off by one decimal point.
They've come out today with their final projection of 50.2 for Obama and 48.3 for McCain, .9 for Barr and .6 for Nader.
Sure, this looks good enough, but when you factor in that 20M of the total of 130M votes comes from CA & NY, where Obama racks up nearly a 2:1 majority going by the polls, it means that McCain would lead in the other 48 states, where the battlegrounds are happening.
So now we have a real polling gap, with margins going from 11% (Zogby/Gallup) to 2% (Tarrance), and the rest in-between. Going off of DemFromCT's compilation of 13 different polls, the average difference is 7.35% in favor of Obama.
I hope they get the extension in Virginia, it was denied yesterday by a judge. I doubt they get it, as even during the primary there were big problems, and we got no extension. You just have to be in line by 7. My polling location was changed (signs pointed it out clearly), though I did drive by and see the lines, I'm going to take my 3 year old daughter with me later tonight to vote.