More Senate Results Thread

Sigh.

OR-Sen(70% reporting)

Jeff Merkley 47
Gordon Smith 47

Smith is up 3,581 votes.

AK-Sen (66% reporting)

Ted Stevens 48
Mark Begich 46

Stevens is up 3,984 votes. WTF? I wonder if the prospect of Stevens resigning if he wins and Palin running in the special to replace him is helping him. Also, I suspect there may have been some serious 1 party rule anxiety. Franken and Merkley are way underperforming Obama.

Update [2008-11-5 3:0:16 by Todd Beeton]:Begich is closing a bit. Still looks winnable although I don't know what precincts have yet to report. But Smith is now up.

Update [2008-11-5 4:25:1 by Todd Beeton]:Merkley has some favorable counties still yet to report. This Alaska mess is a big question mark. Anyone care to give some guidance?

Tags: AK-Sen, OR-Sen (all tags)

Comments

18 Comments

Re: More Senate Results Thread

Bad news: Michelle Bachman won.

Good news: AP just called Indiana for Obama.  Why they're not calling North Carolina is beyond me.

by Jess81 2008-11-04 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Maybe they're waiting for 101% of precincts to report?

Also, your sig seems odd given exit polling.

by TCQuad 2008-11-04 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Stevens being ahead seems a little odd, considering the exit poll. Begich won every single age group. So unless there's a selection against Stevens supporters (maybe they're ashamed of their choice), maybe we're just seeing an odd distribution of votes coming in (Stevens strongholds first).

by TCQuad 2008-11-04 09:26PM | 0 recs
if you voted for a convicted felon

wouldn't you be afraid to admit it?

I think people didn't want to hand the Democrats the keys at all levels of government. We've lost a lot of Congressional races I thought we would win.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-04 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

The people of Alaska should be ashamed of pulling the lever for a convicted felon. This is beyond disbelief!

by Steve24 2008-11-04 09:27PM | 0 recs
I believe in the one-party rule theory

In Iowa the down-ticket Democrats are not doing as well as they should be in light of the results for Obama and Harkin:

http://www.bleedingheartland.com/showDia ry.do?diaryId=2165

We have picked up some Iowa House and Senate seats but also lost at least two House seats and at least one Senate seat, and we have narrowly missed on some really good pickup opportunities.

Our candidates in IA-04 and IA-05 ran better campaigns than the Democrats did in 2006, yet are getting beaten just as badly.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-04 09:27PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

I'm surprised how close the vote is in Alaska.  You know what this might mean?  Senator Palin!  Stevens resigns and Palin resigns and is appointed Senator.  It could happen.  Alaska Democrats seem a bit disfunctional to me.  They have been handed scandal after scandal and haven't been able to break through.  Of course, there is a lot of votes to be counted and Begich is only down by 5,000.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 09:41PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

The race is Oregon is also (to quote Dan Rather) "tick tight".  Since it is by mail, I suppose it will stay that close all the way.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Smith pulls ahead by 500 votes.  Coleman now leads by 1500, with 5% to go.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 09:55PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Really four active Senate races left.  Chambliss' may drop <50%, causing a runoff.  In Alaska, Stevens leads by 3,000 with 2/3s of the vote counted.  Coleman leads by 1350 with 95% counted, and Smith leads by 500 with 45% counted.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 10:04PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Chambliss unlikely to go under 50% if you look at the precincts that are still out.  That race is done unfortunately.  Margin will only widen though not by too much.

I think Begich pulls it out though like everyone else I am mystified by Alaska.

Franken is now ahead and will win given St Louis County I think.  But a recount and some legal fights are sure to be in the cards.  The right hates Franken like they hated the Clintons, maybe worse, because he mocks them.  They have been humiliated tonight and will try to take it out on him.  They will throw everything they have left against letting Al Franken into the Senate.

Oregon is anyone's guess.

by snowback 2008-11-04 10:20PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

my bad -- there is a question in Georgia about whether the early voting has been counted, per Nate.  So could definitely be a runoff.

by snowback 2008-11-04 10:32PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Chambliss unlikely to go under 50% if you look at the precincts that are still out.
Silver thinks that the vote totals are absurdly low, possibly indicating that early votes have not been counted or something.

by semiquaver 2008-11-04 10:32PM | 0 recs
Re: More Senate Results Thread

Wouldn't it be sad to see the Repubs get 4 Senate seats in which they got less than 50%?  It could be.  At this point, Smith, Stevens, and Coleman are below 50% and Chambliss may end up there, as well when everything is done in Georgia.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 10:23PM | 0 recs
Merkely has it, easily

Multnomah and Lane counties are 75% outstanding and voting for Merkley in overwhelming numbers.  He'll carry the state by +4%.  

by BPK80 2008-11-04 10:28PM | 0 recs
Alaska

There must be more votes left in Alaska. According to the vote count right now is only 70% of what it was in 2004. Thats REALLY unlikely, especially since we had every reason to predict huge turnout there since Palin is on the ticket. Given that polls aren't usually 22 points off (that was the size of Begich's lead in the last poll) I have to think that there is a considerable chunk of votes left to be counted. Maybe the early votes? Note sure. But these numbers aren't right.

by js noble 2008-11-05 01:01AM | 0 recs
Do not panic.

I just came from the Interior Democrats results-watching party in Fairbanks. js noble is correct when he notes that there is something wrong when turnout appears to be substantially down in the most hotly contested Senate and House races in Alaska's history.

NONE of the early votes cast in the last week have been counted - and there could be as many as 120,000 outstanding. There is no explanation for this forthcoming from the State Elections Board.

If these break even slightly Democratic  - and the party has been pushing early voting VERY hard here because of potential weather issues - then Begich should be able to close the gap.

by Last Frontier Democrat 2008-11-05 01:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Do not panic.

Thanks for the great info. I posted the same question in one of the diaries at right, why the low vote tally compared to 2004?

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-05 01:31AM | 0 recs

Diaries

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