More Exit Numbers

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:36:46 PM EST

Per Fox News, 10 percent of voters are voting for the first time, about the same as the 11 percent in 2004. In the following states, these voters broke down as follows:

Indiana: Obama 73 percent/McCain 23 percent
Ohio: Obama 69 percent/McCain 31 percent
Virginia: Obama 63 percent/McCain 36 percent

White men make up 36 percent of the electorate, the same as in 2004.

Indiana: Obama 44 percent/McCain 54 percent (Kerry 34/Bush 65 in 2004)
Ohio: Obama 47 percent/McCain 51 percent (Kerry 43/Bush 56 in 2004)
Virginia: Obama 39 percent/McCain 58 percent (Kerry 27/Bush 72 in 2004)

These numbers are very early, but at first glance it appears that Obama is doing significantly better among white men than John Kerry.

Out of touch: Just 40 percent of voters say that John McCain is in touch with them, 57 percent say Barack Obama is.

Still more as we get it...

Tags: Exit Polling (all tags)

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14 Comments

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Re: More Exit Numbers

New Voters:

Indiana   73% O     27% M
Virginia  63% O     36% M
Ohio      69% O     31% M

White Men:

Indiana   44% O     54% M
Virginia  39% O     58% M
Ohio      47% O     51% M

Late Deciders:

Indiana   52% O     45% M
Virginia  44% O     55% M
Ohio      54% O     39% M

by American1989 2008-11-04 12:39PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

I'd imagine that late voters in VA may have been swayed by the last-minute advertising push to suggest that Obama wants to cut defense jobs.

by Steve M 2008-11-04 12:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

And McCain still loses VA. Those numbers match up with SUSA's last poll in which they showed a reversal of white support to McCain in the southern portions of the state which are heavy military.

Obama still swamps him in NoVa to pull out a four point lead.

I expect Obama to win VA by about four points.

by sweet potato pie 2008-11-04 01:06PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

On the map that you scroll over on msnbc it has McCain up by about 11% in VA so far which is totally different then here. I about had a stroke when I saw this.  It has a pretty big spread in FL as well.  Why the discrepancy between there and here? And if so  a little warning would've been nice - I'm seriously about to be ill.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-04 02:19PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

Yeah...

As nice as those numbers are, I will wait until I see the returns... but if those even dropped off 10% from the current totals, it will be a big night.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 12:41PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

New Voters OVERALL:

72% Obama
27% McCain

by American1989 2008-11-04 12:41PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

Take a look at Virginia, Kerry received 27% of the White men.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/ results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

by The Stat Man 2008-11-04 12:46PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

Kerry received 37% of the white men in Indiana....I do not like this improvement as much as Virginia.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/ results/states/IN/P/00/epolls.0.html
 

by The Stat Man 2008-11-04 12:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

Actually you should. McCain's group was always men which is why he has been able to keep the race close nationally.  It's the female vote you need to watch and according to the polls have been going for Obama by about the same margin as men are going for McCain.

by sweet potato pie 2008-11-04 01:18PM | 0 recs
The mollusk bathing
Re: More Exit Numbers

I just looked at CNN's 2008 site for the first time ever.  They have a list of battleground states for 2008.  They are (in reverse order of my surprise): OH, FL, MO, IN, NC, ND, MT.  Amazing.  No PA, no MI, no MN, no WI, no CO, no NV, no NM, no NH, no VA.  This is not where the Republicans wanted to be.

by the mollusk 2008-11-04 01:18PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

From Fudge Report

EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...

by The Stat Man 2008-11-04 12:50PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

Yes but we are having voting problems again for the 3rd election. How many MORE voters do we have to turn out to hopefully just get credit for the win? If this happens tonight Obama & the Dem Congress MUST overhaul our voting system ASAP. It is a disgrace that this is happening in this country & I highly doubt it is an accident either, especially when you look at where the chaos is occurring.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-04 12:57PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

If these numbers are even close to being accurate, this election will be called for Obama pretty early.

by agpc 2008-11-04 01:15PM | 0 recs
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Re: More Exit Numbers

See scroll over VA & FL on the map in the link

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27531033/

I know very few precincts have reported yet but why is this being ignored? I know what the exit polls say and I without a doubt KNOW more people voted for Obama, as they did Kerry, as they did Gore. The question is what votes are registering? So it is good to report on the exit polls, but is what is reflected on this map true?

by jrsygrl 2008-11-04 02:22PM | 0 recs

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