Mid-Election Day Thread
by Todd Beeton, Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 10:39:22 AM EST
There's a lot going on today (duh!) so here's what I've been reading and watching today.
- This morning, Barack Obama made a quick stop in Indiana while he was close by to vote. At the event, Barack sounded a confident note:
Asked about his confidence in winning a state that has not backed a Democrat for president since 1964, Obama said he thinks he can change that pattern.
"I think we can win Indiana, otherwise I wouldn't be in Indiana," he said, according to a pool report of the visit.
Major Garrett on Fox News just reported that the reason for the stop was actually that Barack was down 5 in their overnight internal tracking polls. Come on Indiana, deliver this one for Barack. And by the way, if you live in IN, remember your polls close at 6pm LOCAL TIME.
- NYTimes.com has a cool animated word cloud that compiles the words that election watchers are using to describe their mood today. You can enter your own and see which words supporters of both of the candidates are using to describe themselves. "Hopeful", "Nervous", "Excited" and "Anxious" are the top words from supporters of both candidates. A couple words you see on the McCain supporter word cloud that you don't see on Obama's: "prayerful", "resigned" and "defeated." Ouch.
- Via CNN: Since 1928, 80% of the time, if the S&P 500 goes up during the three months before election day, the incumbent party wins; if the S&P goes down, the challenger wins. Right now, the S&P is down 24% so, if this has any predictive value whatsoever, Barack Obama will be our next president.
- The NYTimes on expected turnout:
Some voting experts and campaign aides predicted that there would be a record turnout of some 130 million voters, which would be the highest percentage turnout in a century, and would shatter the previous record of 123.5 million people who cast ballots four years ago.
Some I'm hearing don't think it will exceed 1960's 63% turnout. In 2004, 55% of eligible voters went to the polls.
- A few other tidbits from Major Garrett on Fox News:
- Turnout is solid in NH, but not at blowout levels. Renewed GOTV calls there are underway.
- As of 10:30am, 50% of Virginia's registered voters (including early + election day voters) had cast ballots.
- In order to boost turnout in Missouri, the Obama campaign has launched a random dialer phonebank system (Activate) that supporters can access from home - Orrin Hatch: wanker.
Looking forward to a potential Obama administration in an interview with CNN, Hatch said, "If you think you've got big spending now, wait till you see what happens then. Wait till you see when you don't have a Supreme Court that's going to stand up and do what's right. Wait till you see what's going to happen when they spend $1 trillion more."
"We're going to lose a lot of stature throughout the world because we have somebody who, though eloquent and a very nice person, who I like, who doesn't know what he's talking about," he added.
As opposed to George W. Bush who's a freakin wunderkind. These guys are freakin deluded.
- Politico compiles the 25 most important counties to watch tonight.
- I agree with Brownsox.
Democrats were optimistic that the only two Democratic senators who will lose their Senate seats as a result of the national elections will be Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
- Oh yeah. And go vote.
What else is going on?
Update [2008-11-4 16:12:38 by Todd Beeton]:More:
- Is McCain President?
Is Obama President? - Marc Ambinder is reporting on his Twitter feed that there is a "6.5 hour voting line in Velda City, Missouri." According to Velda City's Wikipedia entry:
As of the census of 2000, there were 1,616 people, 610 households, and 428 families residing in the city...The racial makeup of the city was 3.09% White, 96.04% African American...
Something tells me no one's leaving that line.
- Phonebank for change from the comfort of your own home.
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