House Results Thread

Looks like we're +9 as of now. Mahoney is out, Cazayoux lost as well, but Kanjorski held on and Markey beat Musgrave! We won repeat challengers Massa and Kissell as well. Let's hope we get Burner, Brown and Trauner as well!

What other races are you following?

Update [2008-11-5 0:14:15 by Todd Beeton]:Up to +12.

Update [2008-11-5 0:53:39 by Todd Beeton]:Looks like we lost Trauner. We also lost Lampson. If there is one disappointment tonight, it's the House. We'll be lucky to get 20. Which is still great, but compared to projections, there may have been a "checks and balances" effect.

Update [2008-11-5 1:29:25 by Todd Beeton]:Two key races: Darcy Burner and Charlie Brown:

WA-08 (15% reporting):

Darcy Burner 50
Dave Reichert 50

CA-04 (64% reporting)

Darcy is up 711 votes.

Charlie Brown 50
Tom McClintock 50

McClintock is up 456 votes.

Update [2008-11-5 2:2:47 by Todd Beeton]:We're now at +14.

Update [2008-11-5 3:29:19 by Todd Beeton]:We won Dina Titus in NV-03 & Glenn Nye in VA-02 and Neihaus in OH-01. Dems are up to a net +16. Hopefully we'll get to +20.

Update [2008-11-5 4:30:43 by Todd Beeton]:We won Boccieri in OH-16, which means Dems with a net of +17.

WA-08 & CA-04 are killing me. We won't know results until tomorrow at the earliest.

Tags: congressional election (all tags)

Comments

54 Comments

Re: House Results Thread

Dina Titus is beating down Porter in Las Vegas.
by killjoy 2008-11-04 07:07PM | 0 recs
that's good to hear, because

overall it is not a great night for Democratic women.

Sam Bennett lost by double digits in D+2 PA-15.

Becky Greenwald is losing by double digits in D+0 IA-04.

Linda Stender lost in R+1 NJ-07 (an open seat).

Vic Wulsin and Anne Barth lost in OH-02 and WV-02, respectively.

I hope Darcy Burner pulls through in WA-08, but it doesn't look good.

Jill Derby also doesn't appear likely to win in NV-02.

Kay Barnes was considered a great candidate but didn't win in MO-06.

Although Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen won Senate seats, and Betsy Markey beat the horrendous Marilyn Musgrave, it was tough out there for most of our women candidates.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-04 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: that's good to hear


Frankly, of those only Linda Stender had a good chance- but the district was/is still a 51% R district.   The rest were dealing with at least 53% R districts iirc.

Democratic women candidates don't seem to get the R crossover that has Democratic men candidates winning 52-53% R districts sometimes.  Though tonight, even that latter thing doesn't seem to be working out well.

by killjoy 2008-11-04 08:18PM | 0 recs
Re: that's good to hear, because

Though I voted for her, Vic Wulsin was/is not a great candidate.  There was also a previously unknown independent running who took about 19%.  He may have been seen as an alternative to Mean Jean Schmidt and Wulsin.

Their race mostly sounded like a cat fight.  Vic Wulsin's ads didn't reflect support for a national Dem. theme, which might have helped her more - riding Obama's coattails- then her negativity re Jean Schmidt.  

by susie 2008-11-04 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: that's good to hear, because

Need to find Paul Hackett and drag him back there.... He could definitely win that seat!

by LordMike 2008-11-04 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Paul Hackett

He sure would make it interesting.  Though, frankly he's something of a loose cannon and could conceivably make  gaffes as well as any.  I don't know that the "Irag veteran" tag would hold the same cachet it did several yrs ago.

I also don't believe he's interested in running for office again.  He didn't seem to care for the constant need for fund-raising necessary to compete in such a competitive environment.

by susie 2008-11-04 10:04PM | 0 recs
Wulsin ended up in a 3 way race

Without the third candidate, she probably would have won.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re:Without third candidate, she would have won..

Doubtful.

Wulsin came off as shrill, didn't have enough to attract those on-the-fence and AAs.  Her only issue was health care - we needed more to get people excited enough to be FOR her- to overcome the R straight-party voters.

As one who lives in the district, I see the best hope of getting rid of Jean to be in the redistricting which will be in effect in 2012 (though I'd love to see a good Dem candidate emerge in Oh-02 in 2010). Ohio will lose at least one Congressional seat after the next census.  
The part of Oh-02 in Hamilton Co. should be merged with OH-01, a more natural fit anyway than the rural areas to the east.  Let neighboring districts divide up the rest of OH-02 at that time, and we'll get rid of the embarassment.

by susie 2008-11-05 08:21AM | 0 recs
Looks like the Dem wave isn't so mighty

We may not crack 20+ in terms of a gain.  Much more was expected.

And I wonder why.  I have some answers.  Maybe others will too.

The Sarah Palin effect.  Sarah Palin doesn't seem to have helped John McCain but she has helped the Republican party.  She energized the base.  And she energized the base in just those red states we needed to win in to enlarge our margins.  I think Sarah Palin is the reason we didn't get the Georgia and Kentucky Senate seats.  I think she ginned up th eexcitement and interest of the base and brought them to the polls.  No other potential Republican vice presidential nominee could have does this at all....not a one.

John McCain chose Sarah Palin because there was gap to fill in this election that Barack Obama refused to fill.  He didn't choose the obvious female VP candidate, so McCain thought that there was a gap big enough to drive a truck through.

It didn't help John McCain, but it kept down Republicans losses in House and Senate.

We aren't going to make it into the upper 20's or 30 because of Sarah Palin.

by debcoop 2008-11-04 10:02PM | 0 recs
My theory

The new voters who came out for Obama didn't bother to vote in down-ticket races. For some, it may have been just the singular focus on Obama, for others, esp those who had to stand in line, they wanted to vote for him and then get out.

I noticed some hints yesterday when passing out Dem Party sample ballots at polling locations.  A lot of the passionate Obama supporters were focused on him, I had to make a little sales pitch to get them to consider the other Dems on the ballot.

We'll know more later as the stats come in.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 06:12AM | 0 recs
Re: that's good to hear, because

I'd put Kirsten Gillibrand's resounding reelection (62%!) on the list of successes. She won the seat last time from Republican John Sweeney in part because he made the papers for being a drunken fool more often than for legislation. This district could easily have elected a qualified Republican candidate, but Gillibrand has done an excellent job.

by De Re Rustica 2008-11-05 04:28AM | 0 recs
Dems tend to run women in more difficult races

Usually against entrenched GOP areas.  Wulsin probably would have beaten Mean Jean if a third candidate hadn't run.  

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 06:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Wulsin would have beaten Mean Jean if...

Mean Jean beat Wulsin by 25000 votes; the third party candidate, who described himself as a conservative, only got about 53000.  Thus Wulsin would have had to win over 3/4 of the conservative third party candidates votes to beat Jean Schmidt.

Though many Rs detest Jean Schmidt, it's doubtful they would have cast their vote for "the liberal" (their description) Wulsin.  Many of the Rs who are anti-Jean are even more right-wing than she is.

by susie 2008-11-05 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

That's the one I'm sweating. It's my district and Porter is a scumbag.

So far Dina is leading by more than I expected, about 8%. But it could be from early voting:

http://www.silverstate08.com/congression al.aspx

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-04 07:40PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Hoping for Dina to hold on!

by werd2406 2008-11-04 08:29PM | 0 recs
CA-11

Jerry McNerney in California's swing-11 district is ahead, just barely, 51-49% with 18% in.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns/usrep/115 9.htm

by JD Lasica 2008-11-04 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Norm Coleman just gave a totally pointless speech talking about how they are still counting votes. But he took the opportunity to crow about Bachman being ahead, which she is. Blech. Neither race is over yet, but MN is not my favourite state tonight, the way things are going.

by thesleepthief 2008-11-04 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I know that district (Bachman's), a lot of people there are evangelical nutbars.

by MNPundit 2008-11-04 11:16PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Going to a bit disappointing

by esconded 2008-11-04 07:40PM | 0 recs
You know......

Considering how much concern trolling you've done, I'm amazed you can do ANY MORE OF IT on a night like this.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-11-04 09:44PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

CNN says at least +16, maybe higher.

Hard to be disappointed about that...

by fsm 2008-11-04 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

In IL-08 we had a weak candidate. If Rahm ever lets us pick our own, we might win. We've had two carpetbaggers in a row, selected and financed by Rahm Emanuel who has his pet theory that the district likes warmongers.

by antiHyde 2008-11-04 08:10PM | 0 recs
Chief of staff

Maybe he'll do better there.

And Kilroy may lose in OH-15.

by esconded 2008-11-04 08:13PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

You mean IL-06.

IL-08 has been represented by Democrat Melissa Bean since 2004. She is truly a poor representative and I didn't vote in that race because of it, but before this we had the worst Congressman in America in Phil Crane for some 30-odd years.

Kirk should've been an easy target in IL-10. DO NOT run Dan Seals again.  

by wengler 2008-11-04 11:13PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Right, IL-06. We used to be IL-08 in my township before redistricting, back when Phil Crane was Congressman. Oh, wait, he just grew long hair and put on a dress. He's still Congressman. I can't tell the difference in the votes.

Yes, time for someone new for IL-10. And for a man described as "to the right of Henry Hyde" by the Herald to be elected twice is a travesty.

by antiHyde 2008-11-05 02:20AM | 0 recs
prop 8

speaking of disappointments for the night -- what is the latest on that and where can one follow the returns?  Florida, Arkansas and Arizona have not been good for same-sex couples tonight and I am hoping for better in CA..

by snowback 2008-11-04 08:13PM | 0 recs
Re: prop 8


Try Box Turtle Bulletin, www.boxturtlebulletin.com

I'm looking for a site with the results of South Dakota Measure 11, the abortion ban referendum.  Rumor has that it failed, but I'd like to check.

by killjoy 2008-11-04 08:25PM | 0 recs
Re: prop 8

thank you!

by snowback 2008-11-04 08:29PM | 0 recs
by werd2406 2008-11-04 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

The residents of MN 2,3, and 6 suck.

by lojasmo 2008-11-04 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I think Franken's going to win, though.  Behind by only ten thousand votes, and Duluth hasn't been reported.

by lojasmo 2008-11-04 08:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Woebegone

What is up with the people in that state tonight? When you voted for Obama, did you not notice the D next to his name? What did you think that meant, folks?

by thesleepthief 2008-11-04 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Woebegone

Third parties is what's up.

by Jess81 2008-11-04 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Woebegone

Good point re third parties.

I also believe these newly registered voters need further instruction in voting all the way down ticket.

by susie 2008-11-04 10:06PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Peters took MI-09. That's a big switch.

by LakersFan 2008-11-04 08:27PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Martin Heinrich took NM-01. Another switch.

by LakersFan 2008-11-04 08:30PM | 0 recs
he's great

He will be a big asset to the progressive caucus.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-04 08:32PM | 0 recs
Nancy Boyda?

I think Nancy Boyda lost; Walt Minnick up in Idaho won for the Dems. Gary Trauner lost, which is ironic because if no one work harder, it was Trauner. Darcy Burner may hang on, but it looks like Tom McClintock is beating Charlie Brown up in northeast California!

Cazayoux lost because of an independent, black candidate. He's got to be pissed!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-11-04 08:31PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I think we got a little bit spoiled....I mean...Obama had a Democratic LANDSLIDE after 8 years of Republican rule.

The PROJECTIONS were a little large, but still, 16+ more isn't bad!

Also, the senate is pretty much how I expected as well....as long as OR goes Dem.

It's a good night, don't let the 16 plus house seats get you down!

by werd2406 2008-11-04 08:32PM | 0 recs
you are right

I am feeling down because Iowa Democrats down-ticket didn't seem to do as well as we'd hoped, given the big wins for Obama and Harkin.

But plus five or six Senate seats, plus more than a dozen House seats, plus a huge landslide in the presidential race is not too shabby!

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-04 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Well, we've got a good majority as it is. Maybe this is for the best. We still control the House by a sizable margin, but since it's not by a larger margin and since the Senate isn't an official 60, we won't face the high expectations yet will still have all we realistically need. Especially for us blue dogs who make balanced budgets not just a priority, but a high priority. I think we can all still look forward to a good, if not great, four years. Again, my thanks to every MyDDer, save the GOP "trolls."

by Nathan Empsall 2008-11-04 08:39PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I know this is the Senate, but Stevens is winning in Alaska...  crazy!

by LordMike 2008-11-04 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Republicans will vote for ANYBODY with an R next to their name. Anybody.

by werd2406 2008-11-04 08:43PM | 0 recs
Correction

ANYBODY should = ANYTHING.

:-)

by BPK80 2008-11-04 11:38PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

The Marion Barry of Alaska. What an embarrassment. I hope the Senate expels that thug and refuses to accept any replacement. Give them one damn Senator.

by elrod 2008-11-05 03:45AM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I'm pulling for Darcy more than anyone else at the moment. Lots of good thoughts (along with obsessive use of the reload button) headed in that direction until I finally collapse from exhaustion tonight.

by TCQuad 2008-11-04 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

How did Bachmann the McCarthyiate hang on?  Fuck.

by nzubechukwu 2008-11-04 09:20PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Titus just took Porter's seat!

Add another Dem to Congress!

by werd2406 2008-11-04 09:26PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Awesome! I didn't know it had been called but I turned to the local affiliate just in time to see Porter concede.

Dina is speaking to the local reporter right now. Why did she wear red tonight? LOL.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-04 09:41PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

I'm a Minnesotan.  I'm disappointed in House voting.  My District 2 went to a hard right guy against a good Democratic candidate.  District 3 is suburban and Paulsen, despite a poor negative campaign is a good candidate, Madia needed a bit of seasoning.  I'm truly disappointed that Bachmann won, but I guess we will have someone to mock and ridicule for the next two years.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 09:52PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

And Young also leads in Alaska, by quite a bit.

by flatblade 2008-11-04 10:17PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

We're losing all over California. Ugggh.

by LakersFan 2008-11-04 10:37PM | 0 recs
Re: House Results Thread

Hmm the congressional results are interesting, far FAR less good than we expected. Also we got beaten on all the anti-gay initiatives.

And Sully I guess, posted that AAs voted yes on prop 8 by something approaching 2:1 margins. That was a while ago so it might be different now, but if it holds up it's likely a direct consequence of the Obama's camps voter turnout effort. Which I'd cautioned about some time ago....

by MNPundit 2008-11-04 11:13PM | 0 recs
I'm following the Martin/ Saxby race

And this morning , we're at 50%, martin has bit into chambliss, its down to very fine shades of numbers, with absentee and early vote still under count.

Senate, GA, looks like its heading for a run-off

Just to underscore the magnitude of that victory, Martin went from only 90k of campaign funding, and being down literally 29 points to pulling within 4 points - and he did it without the massive help of the party - when it became clear that he made GA competitive, the party went in and backed him

I am very optimistic as the vote count continues, that Martin has forced a run-off because the votes that are being counted now, are the early votes and absentees

by Trey Rentz 2008-11-05 02:36AM | 0 recs

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