Final Tracking Poll Update: A 7-8 Point Lead for Obama

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:21:45 AM EST

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	50	45
Gallup (Trad)	53	42
Gallup (Exp)	53	42
Rasmussen Reports	52	46
Research 2000/dKos	51	45


Composite:	51.50	44.50

There's a lot more polling than just the tracking polls this morning:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal (.pdf): Obama 51 percent/McCain 43 percent
Marist: Obama 53 percent/McCain 44 percent
Fox News: Obama 50 percent/McCain 43 percent
CNN: Obama 53 percent/McCain 46 percent
CBS News: Obama 54 percent/McCain 41 percent
Pew Research: Obama 52 percent/McCain 46 percent
ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 54 percent/McCain 43 percent
Battleground Tracker (.pdf): Obama 50 percent/McCain 44 percent
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50 percent/McCain 42 percent

When you throw all of this data together in the mix, Barack Obama's average lead over John McCain is 51.77 percent to 43.85 percent, a slightly wider margin than seen just in the four daily tracking polls above. Obama's median advantage across these surveys is a similar 52.00 percent to 44.00 percent, suggesting a fairly even distribution of results in the final round of polling. [Adding in the Ipsos poll into the mix marginally moves the average while keeping the median stable.]

Does this mean that Obama will win by 7 or 8 points tomorrow in the popular vote, or even that he is assured of winning tomorrow? No. But it has to be disheartening to the McCain campaign to still be unable to crack 45 percent a day before the election and see the polling unanimously show Obama at or above 50 percent across the nation. Throw on top of it the fact that, according to First Read, 111 straight reputable national surveys have shown Obama leading and you get the sense that it will be very difficult for McCain to capture the popular vote tomorrow.

We are 1 day out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

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Why could Obama not win by 7-8 points?

I think it is entirely possible (and plausible).

I realize you are saying that these polls are no guarentee (not that he won't achieve such a spread), but I have the strangest suspicion that it is not going to be a 1-4 point popular vote spread, as some of the more pessimistic people around here have said.

by iohs2008 2008-11-03 09:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final Tracking Poll Update: A 7-8 Point Lead

The steadiness and consistancy of the lead is also good news for any shenanigans tomorrow.

I am certain that the GOP had been hoping for more tightening to try and deligitimize an Obama win. They are still desperate to pin this on fraud and ACORN. With all major polls showing him staying over 50% it makes it very hard to claim that fraud got him elected.

Again, my goal is to beat 54% and have the biggest win since 1984.

by gavoter 2008-11-03 09:30AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final Tracking Poll Update: A 7-8 Point Lead

How are you feeling about GA? What's your gut telling you on the downticket?

by fogiv 2008-11-03 10:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final Tracking Poll Update: A 7-8 Point Lead

it is going to be a runoff and Chambliss will win the runoff (unless McCain pulls some sort of miracle upset, then Martin could probably win the run-off).

Many people I know are pissed at both candidates. During the local news every commercial is either for Martin or Chambliss. Sometimes 3 in a row for the same candidate. It is complete overkill. The only thing this is doing is pissing people off at both candidates. I do not need to see 10 commercials during a 30 minute period all about the Senate race.

Unless the GOP vote is depressed compared to 2004 I do not think Martin can break 50%. The way things are going I would be surprised to see either candidate break 48%.

by gavoter 2008-11-03 10:29AM | 0 recs

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Interesting.

Thanks for the scoop. I've been hoping that the poll-driven narrative of the last week will depress Rupublican turnout enough to help Martin and Obama over the top.

by fogiv 2008-11-03 11:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: Interesting.

It is possible, but I also fear that the flurry of ads this late in the campaign may actually have hurt Martin's chances. Way too much overkill on both sides.

by gavoter 2008-11-03 11:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Interesting.

I hear you. Here in CA, my mailbox is bursting daily with Prop pamphlets and other local campaign various and sundry.

Anyhoo, fingers crossed.

by fogiv 2008-11-03 11:14AM | 0 recs

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IBD just went live...

+4.5 Obama. Make it 112!

by thezzyzx 2008-11-03 10:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: Final Tracking Poll Update

I've been canvassing and phone banking in Ohio all week... having seen PA, Ohio, and Iowa this election cycle I have to say that I am feeling good about what tomorrow brings.

Today still feels like the day before your final grades get posted though... nervous as all hell!

by JDF 2008-11-03 10:27AM | 0 recs

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National--Obama up, States--McCain up

What a divergence we're seeing btween the national polls and the state polls.

Obama is up or even in all but one of the trackers, he's up 7 in the Fox poll, but McCain is gaining in most of the battleground states.

So what gives? McCain is not going to win the popular vote. But I think Electoral college will be no more than 315 for Obama right now.

by esconded 2008-11-03 10:44AM | 0 recs

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Heh.

Only 315? I can live with that. ;)

by fogiv 2008-11-03 11:07AM | 0 recs

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Feh.

Even giving NC to McCain gives Obama something like 338 (and that's no MO, MT, ND, or GA). Who else are you giving to McCain? It's going to be a blowout/

by iohs2008 2008-11-03 11:13AM | 0 recs

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Re: Florida and Ohio

I see him ultimately winning both, although they may not be called right away. I guess is, it all depends on how much of a victory one believes it will be. I believe it will be a pretty big one. Others here think it will be close.

by iohs2008 2008-11-03 12:06PM | 0 recs

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What Gives? - Negative Advertising Works

McCain is pouring all his resources into a few battle ground states with negative advertising and negative rallies where Palin spews out lies about Obama. The result is a tightening (shoring up) in the republican base that dropped away (gone soft) during the early part of October. That's what's happening. But in most of them Obama is still ahead outside the margin or error. That's why the landslide that the national polls indicate is still in the offering, regardless.

by CB Todd 2008-11-03 11:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: What Gives? - Negative Advertising Works

And Obama remains above 50% in most of them too.

by CB Todd 2008-11-03 11:20AM | 0 recs

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Tomorrow, a Historic Day?

For the last 40 years we have lived in a conservative era. Since 1968, Republicans won all three open seat elections. Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan twice, and George Bush won in historical landslides. Jimmy Carter was the only Democrat to reach 50% of the vote. The two Democrats that won were Southern Centrist Democrats.

A Barack Obama win would be historic. Democrats have lost the last eight of nine open seat elections. The last time a non-southerner Democrat won a presidential election was 48 years ago. Did I leave out any other firsts out?

by Zzyzzy 2008-11-03 11:11AM | 0 recs

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I havent had any anxiety

in about a month about the election, and i cant tell if i have anxiety right now or if it's adrenaline. But I am shaky!

by sepulvedaj3 2008-11-03 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Rain in Philly

OK, the weather is calling for Rain tomorrow afternoon in Philly. Luckily it will not be a cold rain, but that is still usually a bad sign for Democrats.

I am guessing there is going to be a huge effort to GOTV early now, before the rain comes in.

by gavoter 2008-11-03 12:31PM | 0 recs