NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

While President-elect Obama has not yet offered Hillary Clinton the job of secretary of state, the speculation over whom Gov. David Patterson will appoint to replace her until a 2010 special election can be called at which point it will be up to the voters, tends to be divided into two camps: Andrew Cuomo and not Andrew Cuomo.

Fox News has the Yes on Andrew Cuomo side covered:

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is emerging as the leading contender to take over the Senate seat of Hillary Clinton, who is poised to head the State Department after Barack Obama takes offices as President.

Blogs and polls are showing a preference for Cuomo. In a new Marist poll, 43 percent of New York voters said they would like to see Cuomo replace Clinton, 1 percentage point more than those who said they were not sure about their preference.

A Washington DC blog, examiner.com, predicts Cuomo will get the nod.

As for the No on Andrew Cuomo camp, Chris Cilizza names him only the 4th most likely pick at 12 to 1 odds:

Cuomo, the son of the former New York governor, is the biggest name (outside of the Kennedys) in the potential field. And, with Paterson on course to run for a full term in 2010, the Senate could be a nice landing spot for Cuomo. And yet, few party insiders take the prospect of a Sen. Cuomo seriously -- and we don't know why.

Could it be because he doesn't even want the job? From New York Magazine:

Frederic U. Dicker talked to some of the state attorney general's friends, who said that Cuomo "is not inclined" to replace Hillary Clinton if she takes the secretary of State gig and Governor Paterson offers him her seat. Still, many Democrats think he's the obvious choice.

So if not Cuomo, then who? Cilizza cites Thomas Suozzi, the Nassau County businessman who primaried Eliot Spitzer in 2006, and Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) as the most likely candidates, primarily, it seems, due to their potential statewide appeal come 2010. Whoever is chosen needs to be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats: Long Island (which is where Suozzi is from) and upstate (Gillibrand's home turf.) Cilizza cites a few other factors in Gillibrand's corner:

[Gillibrand is] a political dynamo who received the most votes of any New York incumbent (177,667) earlier this month,... her fundraising prowess ($4.6 million raised in the past two years) and the idea of replacing Clinton with another woman, makes her a top prospect.

For those Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fans out there (he topped a straw poll over at dailyKos), conventional wisdom (via Cilizza) is that he may be too liberal to win statewide but remember, he's up for a spot in Obama's administration, possibly even as the head of the EPA, which is where I'd like to see him end up.

Tags: andrew cuomo, Hillary Clinton, NY-SEN (all tags)

Comments

30 Comments

Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

I do agree Robert Kennedy would be good at EPA.  and given his difficulies with his voice I think that full scale campaigning in 2010 and 2012 would be difficult.

Kirsten of course is just finished her first term.  And a statewide race would be very demanding. But she is upstate and a woman.  but Carolyn Maloney is also a women and a very good fundraiser as well.  She of course, unlike Kirsten,  hasn't had a contested race since she first ran.  While it's wonderful that Kirsten acted like she took nothing for granted in her 2008 race, having campaigned for her in 2006 amongst Republicans, I had no doubt she was going to be in great shape...they loved her.  But she has been very diligent in community outreach...but it's a whole state and she has really young children.

Tom Suozzi is handsome and well liked on Long Island....though his public statements on choice, in a state with a very strong record on keeping abortion legal for all women...young and poor most specifically...give a cause for concern.

by debcoop 2008-11-25 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I know Tom Suozzi

...maybe president too? I think this would be a great career move for her and could possibly pave the way for a run for president in 2016 or 2020.

by KainIIIC 2008-11-25 10:14AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

  The science crowd--like on Pharyngula--is seriously opposed to Robert Kennedy because he's espouses a lot of New Age woo--like the idea that autism is induced by vaccination.  But maybe good science isn't a prerequisite for becoming the EPA chief.

by whomever1 2008-11-25 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

You think that the environmental protection agency should be run by another person who doesn't understand the environment? Seriously, science is very much a requirement to doing a good job. RFK does fight for a number of environmental topics but he does so from a distinctly anti-science agenda. I doubt he has any clue how CO2 causes global warming but rather simply accepts that it does because it's occasionally hot. -- This is hollow and terrible support for extremely critical set of issues.

I'd take any random toxicologist from any chair of any university over RFK even without glancing at politics.

by Tatarize 2008-11-25 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

"given his difficulies with his voice I think that full scale campaigning in 2010 and 2012 would be difficult."

Wow, that's incredibly offensive. He can't run because he has spasmodic dysphonia?? So what? So does Susan Collins!

by barack to the future 2008-11-25 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

It's not offensive...it's just a fact.  It would be hard.  And for a man with 3(?) or 4(?) kids 2 heavy duty campaigns in 2010 and 2012 would be hard.  He's already stated his family matters a lot in any decisions he makes.  Good for him. It's nice to see this be a factor not only for a woman but a man.

by debcoop 2008-11-25 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: I know Tom Suozzi

Tom Suozzi was in favor of the Abortion Ban legislation signed by George Bush in 2003...he was against a health AND A LIFE EXCEPTION FOR WOMEN in the first piece of federal legislation since ROE v WADE which recriminlized abortion.  There are jail sentences in that bill.

by debcoop 2008-11-25 12:40PM | 0 recs
you do know

that the "late term abortion" ban, bans abortions that are as early as 12 weeks into pregnancy?

The ban passed by congress had NO health exception for the mother or any protections if the mother is going to die.

It also banned the SAFEST 2nd trimester abortion.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-11-25 01:18PM | 0 recs
abortion procedure sic

by sepulvedaj3 2008-11-25 02:07PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Oh how cool, a Kennedy and a Cuomo - maybe we can find a Roosevelt or a Vanderbilt too? I hear Biden's kid turned down his seat - maybe Chelsea Clinton could step in somewhere?

The party of nepotism - all in the family? Well no, the Romneys and Bushes keep it balanced.

by Desidero 2008-11-25 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Well

Why they hell did you vote for Pirro?

by RJEvans 2008-11-25 10:41AM | 0 recs
Biden's son

didnt turn down his seat. He's in Iraq and cannot serve as a senator while deployed

by sepulvedaj3 2008-11-25 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

sounds like you have an issue. why should a name automatically disqualified because of some knee jerk reaction? seems to me the second (and first) roosevelt was a pretty damn good choice

by swissffun 2008-11-25 11:37AM | 0 recs
RFK Jr. is a mercury/autism nutjob

RFK Jr. would be a horrible choice at EPA.  He doesn't understand the science well enough to get that there's no link between mercury and autism, though he keeps pushing one.  He may be passionate, but we need somebody who gets the science first and foremost.

by Neurotopia 2008-11-25 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Kirsten Gillibrand is pretty good (and hot!) except for the whole Blue Dog thing.

by MNPundit 2008-11-25 10:18AM | 0 recs
What about Nita Lowey?

What about her?  Wasn't she going to run back in 2000 to replace Moynahan before Clinton got into the race?

Does she no longer want the job?  It seems that she should get first dibs.

by gavoter 2008-11-25 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: What about Nita Lowey?

She is 71.

by RJEvans 2008-11-25 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Depends on where the Democratic party thinks it can go under Obama.

Cuomo, if he is cut from his father's clothes, should be about as liberal as Kennedy Jr. Want a centrist female ala Clinton, go for Gillibrand. Given that the Democratic party rejected the old Clinton brand of center-right politics during the election, then one of the two former candidates look promising.

With Ted Kennedy likely looking at his last term, another Kennedy in the Senate would be a plus.

by MainStreet 2008-11-25 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

As New Yorker I can say definitively that Robert Kennedy is not too liberal for the state at large. New York is an overwhelmingly Democratic state (62 percent of the vote for Obama) and will likely elect any Democrat that Paterson picks to a full term. The New York Republican party is decimated, and has no prospect of recovering anytime in the near future.

by wjpugliese 2008-11-25 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

The GOP is down to just 3 congressmen, they're clearly not competitive statewide, and all this talk of a Rudy comeback is laughable.  Paterson can pick whoever he wants, and that candidate will win.

by Skaje 2008-11-25 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Banking on that is not wise planning.  The economic conditions are gettin gworse...Paterson's numbers are going down...I wouldn't just assume anything.  Better to be prepared.

by debcoop 2008-11-25 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Who is going to run against him?

Does the GOP have a single potential statewide candidate?  Peter King is the only one who comes to mind, and he'd get destroyed outside of Long Island.

by Skaje 2008-11-25 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

I hate appointments for the senate.. why can't they just have an election?

by obama4presidente 2008-11-25 10:58AM | 0 recs
cuz it costs a few million

by sepulvedaj3 2008-11-25 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Cuomo is a convincing fake populist, so he should slide in nicely to Hill's spot.

by D Seizure 2008-11-25 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

    Todd wrote: "Whoever is chosen needs to be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats."

    Why in the world is that so? New York is among the most Democratic states in the Union. According to the 2008 presidential exit poll, fully half self-identified as Democrats, and only 26% as Republicans; 31% self-identified as Liberal, 43% Moderate, and only 25% Conservative; only 71% of the voters were White non-Hispanic; and 87% of its vote comes from urban or suburban areas, and only 13% from rural areas.

    Seriously, Todd, what possible justification is there for your statement that the appointee must be able to appeal to the areas of the state that have traditionally been most difficult for Democrats? Why can't we just kill them by turning out our base?

by Ron Thompson 2008-11-25 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Because our "base"

I thought I was with you nrafter (I'm a big believer in appealing to all voting blocs, no matter how big ours is), but you lost me.

Mario Cuomo lost in 1994.  If anything, NYS has gotten more Democratic since then.  

Upstate is emptying out, and Democratic voters are left there.  NYC's population grew in the last Census, and it remained strongly Democratic.

Maybe a base strategy would work.

by rayspace 2008-11-25 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

Not Gillibrand. We need her in that House seat until after the census, when we can redistrict and make it easier for a Democrat to win. Right now, that's the most GOP-leaning Congressional district in the state, much more so than the three remaining districts that still have Republicans in them.
by admiralnaismith 2008-11-25 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?
I WANT TO FIX HILLARY CLINTON FOR STAYING WITH BILL WHEN SHE SHOULD HAVE DIVORCED HIM OVER:
  1.  HIS ANTIMASTURBATION
  2.  HIS CHEATING ADULTERY
ALSO IM AGAINST HER NOT LISTENING TO ME ABOUT VOTING AGAINST THE ANTI POKER BILL (PHONE CALLS, LETTERS) AND RECEIVING FUNDING FROM HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANIES WHEN THEY ARE ALREADY OVERCHARGING AND AGE DISCRIMINATING.  I ALSO BELIEVE LIKE JOE LIEBERMAN THAT BILL CLINTON SHOULD HAVE BEEN IMPEACHED AFTER ILLEGALLY CHEATING ON HIS WIFE.
by FRANK TELLS 2008-11-25 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-Sen: Who's Gonna Replace Hillary?

One quick note: Todd's article refers to Suozzi as a Nassau County businessman. He's actually the county executive - the top official in a county of more than a million people.

I'm not familiar with his positions on any federal issues, other than what appears to be a moderate stance on abortion - one which is fine with me, based on nrafter530's comments. All of his work to date has been on state and local issues - focusing on vitally-needed Albany reforms.

by bkverve99 2008-11-25 05:11PM | 0 recs

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