Road To 60: Martin Within 2

A new poll conducted by the Mellman Group for the DSCC and Jim Martin campaign (600 LVs, Nov. 21-23, MOE +/- 4%) has Jim Martin trailing Saxby Chambliss by just 2 points in the Dec. 2nd run-off:

If the December 2008 run-off election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Jim Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

Chambliss 48%
Martin 46%

You'll recall that on election day, Martin lost by 3%, with Chambliss getting just a hair under 50%. Here, Chambliss is performing worse vis a vis his election day vote share than Martin is, which is good news for Martin, although it's all within the MOE.

Martin has gotten a boost in recent days from a radio ad from Barack Obama and campaign appearances from Bill Clinton and Al Gore. At the heart of the Martin message is what worked so well for Obama and Democrats all over the country this cycle:

Gore cast Chambliss as the heir to the failed policies of the Bush administration. Gore memorably lost to Bush in 2000 in a bitter race that was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

"The Bush-Cheney-Chambliss philosophy has been tried and not only found out to be wanting, it has been found out to be a catastrophe," Gore said.

"It's time for him to go," Gore said of Chambliss.

Gore ended his 10-minute speech with a cry of "change is coming to Georgia." He was drowned out by the enthusiastic crowd.

Hey, if it ain't broke.

It's also about casting Martin as President-elect Obama's partner in change. While Republicans argue that Chambliss is crucial to keeping Obama's Democratic majorities in check, the Democratic argument is that Martin will bolster those majorities and, essentially, obstruct the obstruction that has paralyzed Washington for the last 2 years.

From the DSCC press release:

"As every day brings more proof of just how badly Saxby Economics has failed, Georgians are showing they want a leader who will work with Barack Obama to fix the economy, not a politician who blocks change for the middle class."

Ultimately, of course, since this is a run-off, the question is who will show up on Dec. 2nd? Do Georgia's voters want change more than they want to keep the change Obama offers in check?

Let's help make sure it's the former by giving to Jim Martin's campaign at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

Tags: GA-Sen, Jim Martin, Road to 60, saxby chambliss (all tags)

Comments

5 Comments

Re: Road To 60: Martin Within 2

where's Obama? Seriously, I hope he intends to pop down there just before the election to get his voters out in full force --- a radio add just doesn't cut it.

by swissffun 2008-11-24 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: Martin Within 2

NO to Obama.
I still give Martin 40% of winning.
Obama can't get bruised now.

This poll is a 'push poll', they asked "...for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?"

Pollsters will try to filter out undecideds, asking specifically for "undecided" is not a good poll.
My humble opinion.

by rolnitzky 2008-11-24 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: Martin Within 2

wow. for me this is not all about Obama, it's about electing a Democrat to the Senate - and Obama will need all of those he can get. I think if he doesn't do more to help Martin, at least as much as the Clinton's are doing, and Martin looses because the AA vote didn't turn out like they did for Obama - there will be a small issue there.

by swissffun 2008-11-24 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: Martin Within 2

Having Obama come to Georgia will NOT guarantee a Martin victory.  In fact, it would probably end up hurting both.

Look, when Wyche Fowler lost the re-election in the run-off in 1992, the press hung this around Clinton's neck like an albatross.  This would not be a good way for Obama to be going into office.

Also, since Obama is not on the ballot.  People at his rallies got enthused to go vote for him.    Having Clinton and Gore will do a much better job.   It will also help in South Georgia where voters are still very wary of electing Black candidates.    Clinton will do a much better job of getting soft White support out for Martin than Obama could.

Martin UNDERPERFORMED Obama in Georgia.  The CW was that Martin would Overperform so a strong Obama would put Martin over the top.  It didn't happen that way.  In fact, the underperformance by Martin was almost 100,000 votes.  Even in DeKalb County Martin Underperformed by over 20,000 votes.

The GOP is also focusing on the 60 number right now.  They are selling Chambliss as the last bulwark against Obama.   Their election strategy is now even if you hate Chambliss, you need to vote for him to stop Pelosi and Obama from being unchecked.   Having Obama come here will only reinforce that argument and could hurt Martin.

Both Martin and Chambliss have very high negatives right now.  A lot of people in the middle are not enthused about supporting either one.  

by gavoter 2008-11-24 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: Martin Within 2

I think we should keep it mostly Bill Clinton and Al Gore, who won the state in 1992 and nearly won again in 1996 in GA. Obama should make a few appearances in a few black areas, and a larger rally towards the end. But keep him scant, so as to not arouse the white backlash that GA may show, given its history, and what Chambliss wants.

by Lakrosse 2008-11-24 11:32AM | 0 recs

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