Geithner in 2006: credit derivatives support "efficiency and stability" of markets

In May 2006 Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Barack Obama's likely choice for Treasury Secretary, gave a speech to the New York University Stern School of Business Third Credit Risk Conference. You can read the full text here. Some excerpts:

Credit derivatives have contributed to dramatic changes in the process of credit intermediation, and the benefits of these changes seem compelling. They have made possible substantial improvements in the way credit risk is managed and facilitated a broad distribution of risk outside the banking system. By spreading risk more widely, by making it easier to purchase and sell protection against credit risk and to actively trade credit risk, and by facilitating the participation of a large and very diverse pool of non-bank financial institutions in the business of credit, these changes probably improve the overall efficiency and resiliency of financial markets.

With the advent of credit derivatives, concentrations of credit risk are made easier to mitigate, and diversification made easier to achieve. Credit losses, whether from specific, individual defaults or the more widespread distress that accompanies economic recessions, will be diffused more broadly across institutions with different risk appetite and tolerance, and across geographic borders. Our experience since the introduction of these new instruments--a period that includes a major asset price shock and a global recession--seems to justify the essentially positive judgment we have about the likely benefits of ongoing growth in these markets.

Despite the benefits to financial resilience, the changes in the credit markets that are the subject of your conference have also provoked some concerns and unease, even among those on the frontier of innovation and the most active participants in these markets.

These concerns are based in part on uncertainty--a candid acknowledgment that there is a lot we do not yet know about how these instruments and the increased role of nonbank institutions in these markets will affect how the financial markets are likely to function in conditions of stress. [...]

Let me conclude by reiterating the fundamental view that the wave of innovation underway in credit derivatives offers substantial benefits to both the efficiency and stability of our financial system.

Sounds like change we can believe in!

Update [2008-11-21 17:28:12 by Todd Beeton]:Bloomberg is reporting that Geithner at Treasury is a done deal.

President-elect Barack Obama picked Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to be his Treasury secretary, with Lawrence Summers getting a senior White House role, a Democratic aide said.

Obama is also likely to nominate New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as Commerce Secretary, and to announce his picks on Nov. 24, the person said on condition of anonymity.

Tags: banking, credit market, derivatives, Economic Policy, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stock market, Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary (all tags)

Comments

34 Comments

Ummm, so your point is...

.. what exactly?

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-11-21 12:26PM | 0 recs
"like change, but different"

This seems like a very status quo pick to me. He certainly didn't see the current problems coming down the pike. He was involved in the bailout negotiations too.

Call me crazy, but I would kind of like to see Obama institute some changes.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-21 12:35PM | 0 recs
umm... yeah he did.

anyone involved in anything over the past four years should be hauled out and shot, yadda yadda.

Read the newyorktimes article on him
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/09/busine ss/09credit.html
and still nothing from the guy who worked with geitner:
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/

If calculated risk likes the appt, I am cautiously optimistic.

Not to say that I care for his solution, but... he was aware of the problems.

by RisingTide 2008-11-21 12:40PM | 0 recs
not hauled out and shot

but why should Obama hire so many people who've been deeply involved in running the country under Bush?

His top candidate for CIA is even worse.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-21 12:55PM | 0 recs
that's actually easy to answer
they're the only people who know what has been going on for the past few years.
Obama looks to be hiring the professionals, who share his mindset on what needs to be done.
We could have had Dimon, for chrissakes!
This guy looks significantly less ideological than Summers, for example.
by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:33AM | 0 recs
Re: "like change, but different"

Cool.  Thanks.

Keep in mind pretty much nobody saw the current problems and it is not because they were stupid.

When the media latches on to things like CDS and short selling as the root of the current crisis (not saying you're doing it, just saying it has been done a lot lately), they are missing the point.

Lack of transparency, ratings agencies rating securities they had no rationale for rating,  bankers incented to close deals and move on are what we should be focused on.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-11-21 12:46PM | 0 recs
is Geithner good on any of those issues?

He seems to be pretty much more of the same.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-21 12:56PM | 0 recs
"More of the same?"

LOL.  Wait a sec... what was Our Girl's slogan here?  "Change we can experience?"  "Expertise in changitude?"  I get so confused about what I'm supposed to say!

by username 2008-11-21 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: "like change, but different"

Many, many, many people saw this coming.  I saw this coming.  It's just the folks with the power did  not.  It's been obvious for years we were on the verge of this.

It would be a good thing if the person selected to be Treasury Sec. was one of the seers, not one of the folks with the blinders.

by mady 2008-11-21 12:56PM | 0 recs
verge of what exactly?

be precise.  don't just say "economic collapse" because if you had been saying, "we're on the verge of economic collapse," you wouldnt' have been helping anyong

by ab03 2008-11-21 03:01PM | 0 recs
worldwide economic collapse
we're on step 12 of 12 by Nouriel Roubini.
Trust me, a whole shitload of people saw that there were problems, and NOBODY knows what's fucking going to come next.
Shit's scary right now.
by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:36AM | 0 recs
umm... how about no.
the free money that Greenspan handed out had to go somewhere...
CDS IS lack of transparency.
by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:34AM | 0 recs
This is concern trolling we can believe in!

Obama must put Dennis Kucinich in his cabinet!

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-21 10:52PM | 0 recs
Re: This is concern trolling we can believe in!

Secretary of Peace, baby!  Watching all the Hillary worshippers criticize Obama for appointing too many people who served under Bill is priceless humor.

by username 2008-11-22 02:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Geithner in 2006:

ugh.  I don't like it.  This one's bad too:  Colin Peterson for Secretary of Agriculture.  If you care about the environment, care about agricultural policy.  It's probably the single largest determinant of environmental conditions in this and any other country.

by the mollusk 2008-11-21 12:52PM | 0 recs
did he select Peterson?

I know he's being considered. None of the front-runners for that job are great, but I would prefer Vilsack to Peterson, because Vilsack doesn't cost us a House seat.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-21 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: did he select Peterson?

no, I've just seen his name floated about.  Peterson definitely comes from the "F" wing of the "DFL" party in Minnesota.  I just know him as a centrist (maybe center-right) on issues like CRP funding, rules for CAFOs and supporting local agriculture.  I dream of a world where you can get a nice tomato in the summer without growing it yourself.  I don't think Peterson's the guy to deliver that to us.  Unless, of course, someone invents a corn- or soy-based tomato.

by the mollusk 2008-11-21 01:09PM | 0 recs
The "F" wing?

Well, I'll take "fucking" over "dead" or "last" any day...

by username 2008-11-21 06:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The "F" wing?

Democratic Farm-Labor = DFL.  This is the Democratic party in Minnesota.  Colin Peterson is from the "Farm" wing of that party.  And not in a Bessie the Cow kind of way.

by the mollusk 2008-11-21 08:07PM | 0 recs
I don't like Richardson at Commerce either

He would be great for State, Interior or Transportation, but he's a corporate Dem and I'd like a different kind of person for Commerce.

Is Obama even considering one progressive for any cabinet position?

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-21 12:53PM | 0 recs
Re: I consider

The liberal left would have been happy with a few crumbs thrown their way. The right wing people get bent out of shape if a few crumbs are thrown the other way. THat is the difference. BTW, i am not leftist, but I consider myself progressive.

You need idealists on both sides to act as checks on the middle. I was actually on the side of the republican right and the democrats like Kucinich who were against the bailout that was done without sufficient teeth put into the proposals. Thse "extremists" have been vindicated while the "reasonable" people who signed on to the bailout as is look foolish now.

by Pravin 2008-11-21 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: I consider
The liberal left would have been happy with a few crumbs thrown their way.

Huh?  The Armandos and Jeralyns would be satisfied by nothing short of having Obama's tongue on their genitals when he wasn't reading the script they wrote for him.  Don't get me wrong -- I appreciate the need for ideologues on both sides, and would have loved to see a Kucinich-Paul debate.  But at the same time, I don't believe that either extreme could, or should, govern.
by username 2008-11-22 02:32AM | 0 recs
obama's made smart pragmatic choices

this is looking better than expected, not worse.

seriously folks.

by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:38AM | 0 recs
umm... the fact that we got elections this year
means that those who supported the bailout were vindicated.
if we hadn't have had a bailout, we were looking at martial law.
Just in Time is really vulnerable to shipping disruptions.
by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:38AM | 0 recs
Treasury Secretaries

will always come from the business or the finance sector.  That's just how it is.

by mikeinsf 2008-11-21 01:01PM | 0 recs
Meh.

Poor quality. I wouldn't even rec it.

by Darknesse 2008-11-21 01:40PM | 0 recs
This speech is fine

The collapse of credit derivatives was the result of one thing - many of the firms buying derivatives never had the capital to actually cover these loans if they went belly up.  But that was hidden by the complete lack of regulation of the credit derivative market; only the actual credit collapse revealed the problem.

The point is that this speech is fine it's analysis.  Credit derivatives were a good way to increase capital flows into the credit market, diversify risk, and expand lending IF they were backed by sufficient capital.  The second half of Geithner's speech talks to that point - namely that the worries about derivatives were due their lack of transparency (which of course stemmed from the lack of regulation).  

Overall, this is not a speech to get worked up about, especially since it's really just an academic speech.  The theory of derivatives expanding capital was right, and in May 2006 they were performing quite well at expanding the credit market.  If anything, Geithner gets credit for identifying the transparency issue as a concern back in a time when almost everyone else thought derivatives were beyond reproach.

by ahisma 2008-11-21 01:43PM | 0 recs
Derivatives

Derivatives are here to stay.  It's been around in some form or another for as long as capital markets have existed.  It's worked for generations and generations to stabilize financial markets.  Therefore, I don't condemn Geithner for specifically praising derivatives as an intrinsically good thing.

The problem is not with derivatives per se, but the amount (or lack) of proper regulation by the government.

We should withhold summary judgment as to whether Geithner represents "change" or "more of the same" (a stupid binary classification, I might add), until he makes pronouncements as to what kinds of regulation he'll recommend the Obama administration should implement.

by Sieglinde 2008-11-21 01:52PM | 0 recs
Geithner

Geithner was my number one and only choice for Treasury, so I'm elated.

by RJEvans 2008-11-21 03:05PM | 0 recs
re

The principle behind a credit-default swap is fine.  It's just insurance that spreads risk around.  The problem is the regulation system was gutted and the insurers stopped having to be able to cover their policies.

by Mikey 2008-11-21 03:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Geithner in 2006: credit derivatives support

Both Paul Krugman (the guy with the Nobel Prize in Economics) and Bob Reich think Geithner is an excellent choice.  That is enough to convince me since I am the first to admit I don't know much about Economcis and they do.

by jmnyc 2008-11-21 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Geithner in 2006: credit derivatives support

Krugman?  Who is he?  Unless Kucinich endorsed him, away with this choice.  /s

The speed with which many bloggers are tearing Obama a new one is breathtaking.  Most of these experts probably endorsed other candidates in the primaries, so they are now willing enablers of the Hannity meme that "the left is livid with Obama," are quick to whine and moan about every appointment and jump on every rumor to tear Obama a new one.  

I supported another in the primaries as well, but I am going to see how things come about before passing full judgement on the appointments.  Reflexive yammering marginalizes these blogs to a point where they are only going to be taken seriously by the Limbaugh's, Hannity's and O'Reilly's of the world for ammunition against Democrats.  

by devilrays 2008-11-22 03:39AM | 0 recs
Anyone who trades knows

Anyone, and I mean anyone - who effectively trades, or trades well on the markets knows that Geitner is the best choice for the type of regulation that derivatives are screaming out for.

I really like how he's positive about them, given that their unregulated condition has been the cause of so much strife. Derivatives played a huge role in the current market crisis.

And they're at play now. We're really starting to see a bottom form at 8200 imho

by Trey Rentz 2008-11-22 04:49AM | 0 recs
bottom busted loose
10/10 ain't the bottom anymore.
who knows where it will fall.
by RisingTide 2008-11-24 03:41AM | 0 recs

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