Research 2000 gets the "Zogby Award" 2008
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Nov 20, 2008 at 05:48:07 AM EST
There's a post by Markos made while I was on vacation-- basically a chest-thumping post of his about how right Research2000 was for the GE match-up in his tracking poll.
Markos points out that I was one of the detractors of the Research 2000 poll, but unfortunately for his pointed finger, everything I pointed out that was flawed in the poll turned out to be the case:
*R2K said voters above 60 years of age would comprise 22 percent, I said higher, and it was at least 24 percent.
*R2K poll said blacks and Latinos would be 27 percent of the electorate, I said lower, and it turned out to be 22 percent.
*R2K projected that Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 9 percent, I said lower, and it turned out to be 7 percent.
*R2K projected that Independents/refused would numbered 39 percent, I said lower, and it turned out to be 29 percent.
But all that said, Research2000, amidst their weeks of showing it a 11-12% race, put in two days of McCain only having a 4% lead in the final four tracking days, for a 51-46 final projection, which wasn't too bad, being off by a little less than 2 percent. But even Markos didn't believe his own poll, predicting a Obama win by 9 percent. So, I will give R2K the "Zogby Award" for 2008. This is the award that goes to the pollster that, given the final result, is consistently off until the final days before the election, when they poll to make it more in line with the other poll projections. So congratulations, Markos, on your R2K success.