1. Before early voting, I didn't think Obama had ANY chance in FL and NC.

2. I always knew he would win OH.

3. I knew he would never choose Hillary for VP.

4. I thought he would choose one of the VA boys - Warner, Webb, Kaine.

5. I knew Palin would hurt McCain.

6. I always thought in the back of my mind that Obama would have trouble with Jewish voters.

I'll keep mine short, citing just the 2 biggest to my credit.

Wrong:

1. I thought Hillary would win the nomination.

2. After some initial misgivings, I gave Edwards the benefit of the doubt.

Right:

1. The Democratic candidate would win this election.

2. The party would find a way to come together in the end.

On the popular vote I predicted pretty much as it happened 51-46, off by 1.

Electoral college I predicted 364-174, however giving MO to Obama and IN to McCain--ends up in the same number. Did not see Obama taking NE-2

Senate I predicted 59, and we're almost there! Though I thought Franken would lose. I always thought he was not the right guy to take on Coleman. We'll see if he can pull it out.

I thought NC would be something like 52-48...I was surprised to see how close it ended up being.

On the House I was totally wrong, I thought he we would net 40 seats...

Even as an early and strong supporter of Obama, I thought at some point racism would rear it's ugly head and his campaign would crash.  So glad I was wrong.

Right: I thought Kay Hagan would beat Liddy Dole the day she announced, since for more than 6 years (including the 2002 election) I thought Kay was the single best NC Democrat to run against Liddy.

I predicted Obama would win by 4-6 points and well over 300 electoral votes back in May, and never changed that prediction on any day during the campaign.

Wrong: I thought Obama would win NC by 3-5 points.  I was very surprised how close it was, mainly because I thought he would dominate early voting a lot more than he did.

I thought Don Young could not possibly be reelected.

Did pretty well on the popular vote (52-46).
Messed up the Electoral College (332-206).
Might be spot on in the Senate, though I hope I'm not (+7) and did OK in my House prediction (+25).
I really, really thought Obama would lose Ohio, no matter what.
After Nevada, I thought Obama was cooked.
After Super Tuesday, I knew Obama would be the nominee (talk about a change of heart).
I never thought for a moment Clinton would take it to the convention (heya, Rachel Maddow).

I didn't think Obama would win Ohio in the general.

I thought he would win Texas in the primaries.

I thought Obama had it rapped up on February 6th, and was annoyed at Hillary Clinton for not dropping out, but that was more an error in judgement, since there was never any time for her to drop out except arguably right after Wisconsin.  How do you keep winning big states and then go "okay, I'm done!".  But I didn't make a big deal about it either.

On July 17, 2007 (as in, about 16 months before the actual election), I correctly predicted:

1. Barack Obama would win the Dem. primaries and go on to be elected president. :-)

2. The order of the Iowa caucus finish: Obama / Edwards / Clinton.

I was wrong on these two details (one major, one minor):

1. I thought McCain was done for and predicted Romney would get the Republican nomination.

2. I predicted Al Gore would endorse Obama (in the primaries).

In all, not a bad set of predictions for way back in July, 2007 when the traditional media couldn't shut up about Clinton v. Guiliani.

I didn't think Obama would win. I am ecstatic to be wrong. Now I pray to God I am wrong about what he will accomplish in the next 4 years (although I voted for him b/c at a very minimum he will be a stop agent for the GOP policies).  Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong. The fact that he is bringing in alot of Clinton advisers makes me more optimistic.

except i knew mccain would pick palin.

In June of 2007 I posted a diary here on how Iowa effects New Hampshire.  In it I argued that national polling was irrelevent before the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.  

I was right about that.

I also included in that diary a model of how much bounce a candidate would get from winning Iowa.  The day before the New Hampshire primary the  model appeared to work perfectly.  

And then it didn't - Hillary came back in the last 36 hours and won New Hampshire.  The compression of time between Iowa and New Hampshire actually worked against Obama, not for him, something I completely misread.

I was also wrong in predicting that Clinton would win by at least 10 in Indiana.  I was wrong in thinking that Obama could not come back from losses in New Hampshire and Nevada.

In March after the Maryland primaries I wrote a projection of the popular vote at Openleft.  I was close, and predicted the turnout in Pennsylvania and Indiana pretty closely.  I completely missed the turnout in North Carolina, though.

I was pretty close to right in predicting the bounces from the conventions, but did underestimated the effect of delaying the GOP convention until after Labor Day.

I was wrong about North Carolina on election day.  Obama's win there strikes me as something of great significance, and something that none of the other potential nominees would have been able to pull off.

Finally, and most importantly, I was wrong about the charachter of John Edwards.  

Iowa Dem picked up 2 senate seats and 3 house seats. D/R senate 32/18 (30/20, House 56/44 (53/47). What's the beef???

I only predicted a 15 seat gain for the Democrats as I didn't see very many pickup opportunities.

So +20-22 will actually be pretty good, but less than almost everyone else's predictions.

Where to begin?

Well, first of all I thought Evan Bayh and Mark Warner would run for President. I thought Hillary was going to be the nominee all of last year.

I thought Obama would far out-poll Clinton among African-Americans in the early polls (before the vote in SC). Boy was I wrong.

I thought Obama would have done better with Hispanics against Clinton.

I thought it would be another year supporting a Dem loser (in the general) that I liked on issues, but wasn't too impressed with. Little did I know we'd hit the mother load with the skinny kid with the funny name.

On Super Tuesday (Dem primary), after seeing the early exit polls and considering the strengths of Obama and Clinton in those state, as well as the states to come, I knew Obama had already won the nomination. Even when California came in for Clinton, I knew she was screwed for the next 12 contests.

I thought it would be impossible for Obama to prove himself in such short time. I thought he needed to wait some time, not to take his turn in line, but to better convince a skeptical white electorate that he was ready.

I thought Obama could give a good speech (2004), and was fresh as a Senator. I thought the luster would wear off, and wouldn't like the real Obama. Little did I know he was incredibly thoughtful, steady, knowledgeable, and incredibly respectful of all of his opponents.

I thought Republicans would succeed at painting Obama as an angry black man, and that they would fan fake outrage at benign comments from African-Americans. I feared a prominent black or two would say something like "We're taking the country over" and ruin Obama's chances, but everybody was so disciplined not to mess it up (except Jeremiah Wright and Jesse Jackson, who was infatuated with Obama's nut sack). Who's got the bigger balls now?

I was naive enough to think Mississippi would be close. Mark my words, MS is close to being black majority, within a couple decades, and it will be amazing to see all the racist whites deal with a black governor one day. I guess I should have expected the deep south to become even MORE polarized racially at the ballot box. Eslewhere in America, Obama did better among whites than Kerry or Gore. Not in LA, MS, AL, or SC. Check out Jena, LA, home of the Jena 6. Whites resent black people when they have the numbers.

I thought McCain would win Indiana by double digits. I thought we'd lose Nevada (until the registration info changed my mind), Florida, and Missouri. I thought it was too early for my home state of North Carolina to go blue. I thought we would win Ohio big due to free trade.

I thought Sarah Palin's pick was the most insulting gimmick ever pulled in modern political history. I never saw that coming, but McCain did leave his disabled first wife for a wealthy woman 20 years his junior. Maybe this pick wasn't so crazy after all. With the help of Viagra, at least he was able to "salute" thinking of his running mate.

I actually thought we would get rid of at least one of the corrupt Cuban-American republicans in Miami. We went 0 for 3.

I thought we'd get 59 Senators. Not sure if we did this or not yet. I was happy with picking up 10 seats in the House, not really believing we'd win 30+ like some said. We've got more seats than Republicans have had in a long long time.

I used to like McCain as a person. I never thought I'd see him argue that his campaign's dirty tricks were anything otherwise. He actually defended the add suggesting Obama wanted to teach sex ed to kindergarteners. I will never respect McCain again, no matter how 'bipartisan' he could be in the Senate.

I thought Osama bin Laden would ruin the campaign again. Instead, Wall Street sealed the deal.

Lastly, I never thought I'd be hitting a site called fivethirtyeight.com every hour for 5 months. Nate Silver is da man!

Wrong
We would win the Georgia Senate seat outright!
Right
Obama would be "The TEFLON Candidate" and nothing  McSame, Painlin, 527s and Repigs would throw at him could stick!

I was absolutely certain that Wesley Clark would be the V.P. nominee, up until the Face the Nation interview.  And this wasn't residual Clarkism from 2004 (I was a Dean person).  Not that I'm unhappy with Biden--I'm not--just thought Obama would not choose someone else from Capitol Hill.

I knew Barack would get over 350 electoral votes.

I was surprised Missouri was as close as it was.

Thought this was the year for Dan Seals in IL-10.

Wrong:
Obama wouldn't run for President in '08 (back around '06)

Obama would win Missouri and Georgia

Mark Warner would run in '08

Palin would be dropped from the ticket because she's so damn stupid (there was one point where i was pretty sure)

Right:
Obama would win a Nebraska electoral vote

Georgia senate race would go into a runoff

The primaries were essentially over after super tuesday

Obama would have no trouble with Jewish voters

Right:
1. Obama 52-46 over McRage (I'm giving myself some leeway here because nobody said anything about decimals).

And now, teh wrongness:

1. NC will stay Republican
I based this prediction on fundie turnout. Wrong, wrong, ever so wrong. My friend who is a fundamentalist, evangelical Christian said the GOTV in the churches never materialized. In 2004 the churches mobilized heavily for Bush. Not this year. No excitement for McSame at all, not even with Palin on the ticket. Bush was their Pope; McCain, wasn't even a deacon.

2. North Dakota goes blue!
No, but closer than you might'a thunk. Maybe 2012.

3. Indiana close, but stays GOP
Never been more happy to be wrong in my life. Perry county - where my family's from and where I lived for a while - is registered 50-50 Dems and Reps. It went for Obama 2 to 1!!

Wrong:

It would be close.

Obama would have trouble with Hispanics.

Obama would have a harder time with non-black working class voters than Kerry.

Obama would not change the map.

Obama's turnout would only make a difference if it were close.

The Republicans would go hard negative early to define Obama.

The Republicans would run a competent GOTV operation.

The press would turn on Obama in the general.

Obama would run a moderate to conservative administration.

Right:

It was Obama's to lose.

Skipping public financing was smart.

Turnout would fall short of expectations.

Obama would not have much coattails.

I would be elated if Obama won, despite my misgivings.

Obama would reassemble a Clinton administration.

I called the presidential race fairly well. Got the EV exactly right, including NE-02, but mixed up Missouri and Indiana.  I called the popular vote at 53.5-45.5, and it's currently 52.7-46.0, so I was off by 1.3%

For the Senate, I called Franken and Begich, and got everything else right, including the Georgia runoff.  Looks like I'll have it exactly or be off by one.

I really screwed up the House, where we underperformed.  I called it 267-168, which includes the likely outcomes of the Louisiana runoffs.  I actually miscalled 15 races both ways, so it balanced at 7 Dems too many. Here's what I got wrong: Young, both the Diaz-Balarts, Kirk, Boyda, Madia-Paulsen, Cazayoux, Kravotil-Harris, Terry, Stender-Lance, Kanjorski, Nye, Perriello, and Reichert. Lots of surprises in that list.

Wrong

1.  I was braced for a major October surprise, there was nothing except his aunt's immigration status.

2.  I never thought he would win Florida and Ohio

3.  I thought he would win the NV caucus and TX primaries

Right

1.  John Edwards - phony

2.  Joe Biden - VP

Here are mine in no particular chronological order.

Wrong:
1- Obama winning north dakota in the primaries (or was it south? the last primary states)
2- Clinton was not vet for VP
3- Republicans would get no or little bounce after their convention (they got one for 2 weeks and incidentally the markets collapsed as their bounce was collapsing giving the narrative that the markets saved obama!! hooray for journalism)
4- Obama might lose some of the debates
5-Palin would make a big gaff at VP debate (at least one that media would fixate on).
6- Dem convention risked being all about the Clintons (boy that stadium speech blew everything away from the memory, except maybe Michele's speech and bills too)
7- Polls were undercutting Obama's numbers.. turned out they were quite spot on (when averaged) in most cases. Nate silver being the gold standard.

8- Turn out would be 145mil (I have to admit i pulled that out of my ass without any regard to past data)
9-Believed (and hoped) strongly that Kathleen sebelius would be selected as VP.

Right:
1- Obama would win big, 350+ EV at least.
2- Obama would win VA and NC, I was iffy about IN and thought obama would win Missouri (which is prob wrong now)
3-PV vote margin of 8, close enough! (53-46 right now)
4- 58 senators including holy joe, close again!
5- 25 house seats, lot more realistic than some predictions
6-Clinton would not be chosen as VP
7-Obama had the election locked up after he disawoed Jeremiah Wright. since I knew lots of people were going to have a problem with him as his so called mentor in general. That was I thought was his only path to lose.
8-Obama would win PA BIG despite what Rendel and Chris "Scranton" Mathews spouted 24/7.

Things I got wrong:

* I thought Obama would eke out a win in Missouri and, maybe even Montana, in the general.

* I thought Prop 8 would fail.

* I thought Obama would win NH in the primary.

* I figured the Dem primary would be over much sooner.

Things I got right:

* I called McCain getting the Rep nomination even when he was left for dead, mostly based on the recognition that Reps love to elect the guy who's "next in line."

* I called Obama winning the Dem nomination. As early as fall 2007, it was feeling like a McCain-Obama race to me.

* I called Obama winning the general (and on election night I almost nailed his popular vote spread, predicting 6.5%).

Things I'm not sure about:

* I thought Obama would win in a landslide, but frankly, I'm not sure what determines a landslide in a pres. election. His pop. vote spread was only 6.1% (no), but EV spread is 192 (?). Anybody know was the consensus is on the definition?

After Iowa I thought Obama would win NH and, if necessary, spin that into one or two more wins in order to knock Hillary out of the primaries. But, if that happened, I thought it was pretty much 50-50 whether Edwards or Obama would get the nomination.

So, yeah... I was wrong about that.

But my electoral prediction was pretty solid. My only mistake was in predicting that Missouri would go for Obama. I predicted that we would get 59 senate seats plus the run-off in Georgia (which still looks possibly). I predicted a 20 seat pick-up in the House.

Of course, in reality, that was just me putting a lot off faith in 538's numbers plus the anticipation that the ground game in Indiana would shift things and that Missouri wouldn't lose its bell-wether status. Ah well.

Well, I've been an Obama supporter since '04, so this election certainly felt great.

When everyone else was hyperventilating, I totally called that Palin would be a drag on the campaign.

I was also right that all of this nonsense about the Jewish vote suddenly going for the GOP was a bunch of, well, nonsense.

I was wrong about Indiana - I thought there was no chance for IN to go Blue because it's so much more conservative than Ohio.

I was wrong about Edwards - I had blown off the rumors for so long defending him, and I'm still extremely disappointed that I put my neck out there for him; I was never a supporter of his in the primary (see: Obama supporter since '04) but I've always liked him.

Honestly, I'm glad to see that I was wrong about electoral shenanigans.  After the disasters of '00 and '04, I had feared that it would continue, but it seems like most places generally did well this time.  No election is perfect and I understand a lot of folks are concerned about how odd the Alaskan election was, but in general this went very well.

wrong:

I thought Hillary would be the nominee and Obama the VP pick
I thought Romney would be the republican nominee
I thought that there would be a lot more voter suppression (re: Ohio 2004, FL 2000)

right:
I didn't think Obama would pick Hillary for VP (although I would not have been unhappy if he had)
I thought the Palin pick would move over any Hillary supporters back over into Obama's side (if they hadn't already migrated) and become very vocal and loud Obama supporters
I knew that Bill & Hillary would be behind Obama
I knew that once Palin was picked, the republican ticket was NOT going to run on the issues anymore, but red-meat.
I thought that Obama would win by a huge margin both in popular vote & EV
I thought that the old issues of Ayers and Wright, which were played out on national TV during the primaries, would not have the same impact during the GE.  The shock value was gone by that time
I knew that if economy was the number 1 issue, Obama would win hands-down with no problems

That said, I still was biting my nails until Ohio was called for Obama - I knew it was over then.  

Very good diary, one of the most interesting concepts I've seen.

I feel fortunate to have made a profit on both the primaries and general election, since I certainly got plenty wrong.

I'll alternate:

* Right -- John Edwards, who I supported in 2004 and early this year, would be far less of a factor in 2008, not even close to the top two, regardless of how he fared in Iowa

* Wrong -- Hillary had enough foundational advantage through the women's vote and older voters to hold off Obama for the nomination

* Right -- in 2007 I posted that Obama had so much star power and enthusiastic supporters that he was probably understated in polling, and those numbers would soar once actual voting commenced

* Wrong -- I didn't think that star power would translate to 90+% among blacks against Hillary, and in the spring I partially fell for the nonsense that Hispanics wouldn't fully support a black candidate

* Right -- Hillary would win New Hampshire, courtesy of long term support. I always downplay late surges

* Wrong -- I was caught up with a family medical situation at the time, and didn't have any idea Hillary and Mark Penn were dense enough to essentially bypass all the par 3 caucuses and primaries. So after Super Tuesday I briefly still thought Hillary was in good shape

* Right -- I correctly wagered that Obama's primary surge was misapplied on Intrade in states like California and Ohio, where his percentage of success was severely lower than speculators wanted to believe

* Wrong -- I tried the same theory in the general election and missed narrowly on Indiana and North Carolina, wagering on McCain. I did win big on McCain in West Virginia and Georgia at bargain rates, but losing two state wagers still stings. I can't remember the last statewide wager I lost.

* Right -- Even when sites like 538 were briefly trying to pretend McCain was the legit favorite in September, I played Obama four times on Intrade, including at nice underdog rate. No chance the situational advantage toward Democrats in 2008 was that flimsy, flicked aside by momentum coming out of a convention.

* Wrong -- From 2006 through the bulk of 2008 I always believed the popular vote would be relatively close, within 2-4 points, since open races are historically tight. Not until the economic collapse did I begin to accept we could win handily, but I still expected closer to 5 than 7.

* Right -- My best assertion throughout 2008 was the extended primary was an overwhelming benefit. I'm still astonished it was handicapped as anything but that. Rachel Maddow whined for months that, "McCain is the beneficiary...it makes him the November favorite, blah blah, blah."

* Wrong -- I thought Obama would fare better among white women, losing 53-46. I expected a 2-4 point deficit

* Right -- Alaska and Georgia always overstate Democrats in pre-election polling. I've posted that dozens of times over the years including frequently this year. Imagine my hilarity when those two states, among all, were shouted at for supposedly spitting out suspicious results. Newsflash: they are only suspicious if you are dense enough to take their polling margins at face value without understanding the historical failures of Alaska and Georgia polling.

* Wrong -- I thought Reverend Wright would be oft exploited by the GOP during the fall campaign

* Right -- Even though I supported Hillary I always said Obama could win Florida, even when Obama's earliest supporters, including many native Floridians, were insisting he could not. That state is a classic swing state with roughly 21% liberals and 33% conservatives, mirroring the nation. That aspect easily trumps negative subjectivity stemming from 2000 and 2004.

* Wrong -- I didn't think the Party ID edge would be as wide as it turned out, 39-32. My Excel model used +5 for months and I reluctantly moved it up to +6 in the final few days.

Lastly, here's something RIGHT toward 2010. We need to prioritize governorships. That's still not properly understood by the netroots. There is too damn much emphasis on the senate on sites like this. Governorships may be less sexy, and not many governors are high profile like senators, but they build the foundation of the party. In 2010 the dynamic may be quite similar to 2002, when a lousy economy forced voters to reject the recent party holding the governor's mansion, if an incumbent was not there to state his/her case. Many big states are vulnerable on our end if that holds up again, like Michigan and Pennsylvania.  

When Smith was way ahead, based on county by county comparisons to 2004.  I said it was a "mathematical crime" that the AP hadn't called the race.  :-)

Rights:

• I knew PA wouldn't be close despite the effort put in by McCain-Palin here.
  
• Nevada would go blue
  
• Shays would lose in CT

Wrongs:

• I had visions of a huge House wave (28+) that didn't happen, despite some nice pickups.
  
• Montana possibly not going for McCain
  
• Hopes for Debbie Cook in CA and Tom Allen in ME