The Next Right
by J Ro, Sat Nov 15, 2008 at 09:39:00 AM EST
Last night, I had the pleasure of witnessing a spirited discussion between a young Republican working for a lobbying organization and a obliging Democratic operative. The conversation went along the lines of what's next for the Republican party, a familiar road these days. What astounded me was the depth of denial coming from the Republican activist, a feeling I've heard echoed throughout Republican circles I've had contact with, both online and offline.
By denial I mean this: Almost every Republican I've spoken with or read has not seen the 2008 election of Barack Obama as a clear repudiation of their ideas, just their tactics.
Case in point, in the discussion last night, the problems with the Republican party were framed in terms like "how are we going to get back to our core values,""who will be the next leader with charisma," and "how will we hold onto our last shreds of power in Congress." But these are arguments for reforming the way Republicans present themselves, not Republican ideology itself.
Make no mistake, this election repudiated Republican ideas, not just their dirty, dishonest tactics. Over and over the Republican activist in this conversation would say, "We need to get back to our core values, like small government." Tell me, when was the last time we actually had a small government president? As these graphs make clear, we haven't had a Republican shrink the size of the government since before FDR.
The fact is, core Republican values like small government are myths Republicans use to get elected. There is no denying that these ideas have worked in the past electorally, but John McCain ran on the exact same line this year - calling Barack Obama a big government socialist - and he received a trouncing. America rejected the Republican conception of small government, a clear repudiation of a core value.
To take another example, a bunch of Republican online activists have put together a plan at RebuildTheParty.com. Their "plan for the future" is 100% tactics, recommending the GOP focus on the Internet, change the internal structure of the party, recruit new candidates, and compete in every congressional race. All small bore stuff and no new ideas.
Republicans are in the woods, and no Mitt Romneys, Bobby Jindals, or Sarah Palins are going to save them. 2010 looks like a good year structurally for Democrats, and Obama statistically is likely to win a second term.
So, given that Republicans are in for what looks like a good eight years of electoral defeats, what's next for the GOP?
Republicans will certainly need new ideas to bring their party back into power, but the GOP tends to be a lot more institutional than the Democratic party, making quick change hard. Beginning in 2000 and culminating in 2008, Democrats were able to bring new activists into the party and bring truly new ideas to the table, culminating with the emergence and election of Barack Obama. It was breathtakingly quick change. Republicans tend to wait in line for their party's nomination (Bob Dole lost to George H.W. Bush and was then nominated, John McCain lost to George W. Bush and was then nominated), so getting the old detritus out of the system will be harder and take longer.
Still, I would bet a good chunk of change that we're going to see the flowering of right wing online organization - the conditions are perfect for it. Online communities like MyDD and Daily Kos - and the movement they helped inspire - grew up as an opposition wing in an opposition party. There are a lot of disaffected Republicans out there who are in the same position right now.
And I feel strongly that the new Republican online activism will come from people and groups we haven't seen before. Current GOP online operatives like David All, Soren Dayton, Patrick Ruffini, and Michael Turk have served in online positions for the RNC, Bush's campaigns, and traditional Republican strategy firms. They would never admit it, but they are part of the old guard.
But even with a newly charged online operation, where will the new ideas come from? Prediction is a fool's game, but I'd hazard three guesses.
First, I'd be scared of moderate, green Republicans in the mold of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Case in point, the British right-wing party the Tories used environmentalism to turn itself around:
To that end, Mr. Cameron set about decontaminating the Tory brand. Central to that mission were forays into two areas of political terrain previously deemed forbidden zones. First, he signaled comfort with gay rights, ditching the party's previous support for laws restricting sexual equality. Second, he championed environmentalism. He may have endured news media mockery when he took a dogsled ride to inspect a Norwegian glacier in 2006, but it did the trick, confirming that the Tories were changing.Mr. Cameron's efforts have paid off: recent polls suggest a Conservative victory at the next election. Of course, the lessons of one society can never fully apply to another. But the Tory experience suggests that a defeated party of the right has to move toward the center, abandon divisive social issues and elect a leader who looks as if he or she actually belongs in the 21st century. With Arnold Schwarzenegger ineligible for the presidency and no other accommodating figure on the horizon, the Republicans might have a bumpy decade ahead.
Second, I'd be scared of a refined Mike Huckabee type. Huckabee was much closer to the ideal of compassionate conservatism than Bush ever was. When he spoke, you could hear real empathy in his voice. And he took a decidedly different tack on issues like immigration than his fellow red meat Republicans. With a bit less emphasis on the divisive issues of the culture wars and a few new ideas, the Huckabee type would be hard to beat.
Lastly, I'd be scared of the Libertarian wing of the Republican party. Ron Paul's supporters rallied to a surprising degree around an old, non-charismatic career politician because he offered some stunning new ideas: End the drug war, end the American empire, end the culture wars, and be serious about free markets. They showed the Libertarian faction could be organized into a potent, if somewhat eccentric political force. And, as the user-ranked section of RebuildTheParty.com shows, these ideas are probably the strongest force going among outsider Republicans today. Imagine what would have happened had Ron Paul been blessed with the rhetorical powers of Mike Huckabee or even Barack Obama.
(Of the three options presented, I'll take the third. As I've said, I'd rather see progressives fighting libertarians than corrupt Democrats fighting corrupt Republicans.)
Or it could be a completely different option. The next right is likely to take us all by surprise, in the way of political reinventions. There is no such thing as a permanent majority for either party. Still, whether the new GOP will get their ideas out of the woods and on to to the table in eight years remains to be seen.
I have my doubts, but where do you see the right going? Will they be able to escape the deadly grasp of neo-conservatism?
Tags: 2010 elections, Conservatives, GOP, Republicans (all tags)









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