The Next Right

Last night, I had the pleasure of witnessing a spirited discussion between a young Republican working for a lobbying organization and a obliging Democratic operative. The conversation went along the lines of what's next for the Republican party, a familiar road these days. What astounded me was the depth of denial coming from the Republican activist, a feeling I've heard echoed throughout Republican circles I've had contact with, both online and offline.

By denial I mean this: Almost every Republican I've spoken with or read has not seen the 2008 election of Barack Obama as a clear repudiation of their ideas, just their tactics.

Case in point, in the discussion last night, the problems with the Republican party were framed in terms like "how are we going to get back to our core values,""who will be the next leader with charisma," and "how will we hold onto our last shreds of power in Congress." But these are arguments for reforming the way Republicans present themselves, not Republican ideology itself.

Make no mistake, this election repudiated Republican ideas, not just their dirty, dishonest tactics. Over and over the Republican activist in this conversation would say, "We need to get back to our core values, like small government." Tell me, when was the last time we actually had a small government president? As these graphs make clear, we haven't had a Republican shrink the size of the government since before FDR.

The fact is, core Republican values like small government are myths Republicans use to get elected. There is no denying that these ideas have worked in the past electorally, but John McCain ran on the exact same line this year - calling Barack Obama a big government socialist - and he received a trouncing. America rejected the Republican conception of small government, a clear repudiation of a core value.

To take another example, a bunch of Republican online activists have put together a plan at RebuildTheParty.com. Their "plan for the future" is 100% tactics, recommending the GOP focus on the Internet, change the internal structure of the party, recruit new candidates, and compete in every congressional race. All small bore stuff and no new ideas.

Republicans are in the woods, and no Mitt Romneys, Bobby Jindals, or Sarah Palins are going to save them. 2010 looks like a good year structurally for Democrats, and Obama statistically is likely to win a second term.

So, given that Republicans are in for what looks like a good eight years of electoral defeats, what's next for the GOP?

Republicans will certainly need new ideas to bring their party back into power, but the GOP tends to be a lot more institutional than the Democratic party, making quick change hard. Beginning in 2000 and culminating in 2008, Democrats were able to bring new activists into the party and bring truly new ideas to the table, culminating with the emergence and election of Barack Obama. It was breathtakingly quick change. Republicans tend to wait in line for their party's nomination (Bob Dole lost to George H.W. Bush and was then nominated, John McCain lost to George W. Bush and was then nominated), so getting the old detritus out of the system will be harder and take longer.

Still, I would bet a good chunk of change that we're going to see the flowering of right wing online organization - the conditions are perfect for it. Online communities like MyDD and Daily Kos - and the movement they helped inspire - grew up as an opposition wing in an opposition party. There are a lot of disaffected Republicans out there who are in the same position right now.

And I feel strongly that the new Republican online activism will come from people and groups we haven't seen before. Current GOP online operatives like David All, Soren Dayton, Patrick Ruffini, and Michael Turk have served in online positions for the RNC, Bush's campaigns, and traditional Republican strategy firms. They would never admit it, but they are part of the old guard.

But even with a newly charged online operation, where will the new ideas come from? Prediction is a fool's game, but I'd hazard three guesses.

First, I'd be scared of moderate, green Republicans in the mold of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Case in point, the British right-wing party the Tories used environmentalism to turn itself around:

To that end, Mr. Cameron set about decontaminating the Tory brand. Central to that mission were forays into two areas of political terrain previously deemed forbidden zones. First, he signaled comfort with gay rights, ditching the party's previous support for laws restricting sexual equality. Second, he championed environmentalism. He may have endured news media mockery when he took a dogsled ride to inspect a Norwegian glacier in 2006, but it did the trick, confirming that the Tories were changing.

Mr. Cameron's efforts have paid off: recent polls suggest a Conservative victory at the next election. Of course, the lessons of one society can never fully apply to another. But the Tory experience suggests that a defeated party of the right has to move toward the center, abandon divisive social issues and elect a leader who looks as if he or she actually belongs in the 21st century. With Arnold Schwarzenegger ineligible for the presidency and no other accommodating figure on the horizon, the Republicans might have a bumpy decade ahead.


Second, I'd be scared of a refined Mike Huckabee type. Huckabee was much closer to the ideal of compassionate conservatism than Bush ever was. When he spoke, you could hear real empathy in his voice. And he took a decidedly different tack on issues like immigration than his fellow red meat Republicans. With a bit less emphasis on the divisive issues of the culture wars and a few new ideas, the Huckabee type would be hard to beat.

Lastly, I'd be scared of the Libertarian wing of the Republican party. Ron Paul's supporters rallied to a surprising degree around an old, non-charismatic career politician because he offered some stunning new ideas: End the drug war, end the American empire, end the culture wars, and be serious about free markets. They showed the Libertarian faction could be organized into a potent, if somewhat eccentric political force. And, as the user-ranked section of RebuildTheParty.com shows, these ideas are probably the strongest force going among outsider Republicans today. Imagine what would have happened had Ron Paul been blessed with the rhetorical powers of Mike Huckabee or even Barack Obama.

(Of the three options presented, I'll take the third. As I've said, I'd rather see progressives fighting libertarians than corrupt Democrats fighting corrupt Republicans.)

Or it could be a completely different option. The next right is likely to take us all by surprise, in the way of political reinventions. There is no such thing as a permanent majority for either party. Still, whether the new GOP will get their ideas out of the woods and on to to the table in eight years remains to be seen.

I have my doubts, but where do you see the right going? Will they be able to escape the deadly grasp of neo-conservatism?

Tags: 2010 elections, Conservatives, GOP, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: The Next Right

As long as the Fundies have a death grip on that Party---I don't see them doing anything positive.

The Fundies run that Party and they will not let go easily.

by GeeMan 2008-11-15 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

I'm not convinced they run the party, but they are powerful. They were hit with a real blog by Huckabee's defeat, and that led to a lot of them being pissed off about it.

They won't go without a fight, and it's a division we would be smart to exploit, but I still see the neo-cons being in control (though losing power), though of course, neo-con supremacy is contingent on Fundie support.

by J Ro 2008-11-15 10:19AM | 0 recs
given that Palin is the 2012 frontrunner,

they fundies still do run the party. Palin, Huckabee, and Romney leading clearly shows the GOP is not getting more liberal anytime soon. I don't think the GOP will regroup for a long time. The Con wing has been so dominant for such a long time they are just gonna make everyone and themselves go into denial until years from now, the same way when Reagan won, the liberal wing of the Dem party went into denial about being the cause of loss, until the DLC popped up.

by Lakrosse 2008-11-15 10:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right..... No There There

When progressives strategize an upcoming election, they ultimate goal is start governing in such a way as to provide the greatest good for the greatest number of people... or something along those lines.

If that's your goal, then your ideas and rhetoric can be interesting to listen to, think about, critique and debate.

When right-wingers strategize upcoming elections, they are either luxury-box righties, who want to preserve/re-establish a plutocracy, or bleacher-seat righties, motivated by xenophobia, homophobia, mysogony, etc.

The plutocrats can't make interesting statements about effective government, because they don't want to govern. Exception: War-mongering 'round the globe. Wars help preserve plutocracies, so right-wingers can make intriguing (and generally horrifying) statements about geopolitics. There's where your discussion and debate might ensue.

So, agreed. "Ideas" about "governing" that you are waiting to hear from the right, won't be forthcoming.

As for "small government," it was last seen quite recently, in the persons of Bill Clinton and his deficit-hawk ally, Leon Panetta, sweating themselves to a state of full-on swampass trying to balance the federal budget.

Which they eventually did, to such a surprising extent that Wall Street Journal articles began asking what would happen when the "long bond," i.e., 30-year U.S. Treasury paper, disappeared as an investment vehicle.

No long bond. Because we didn't need it. We would no longer be borrowing, except for short-term flexibility. The Clinton-Panetta budget was in surplus and the national debt was starting to shrink. It makes me want to puke just typing these words.

Then came Bush-Cheney. Small government for them? No. "Starve the beast" was the watchword. Meaning, spend in a frenzy to build deficits back up, preventing social programs from being enacted.
(Sorry, can't afford 'em.)

Again, it makes you want to fucking puke.

by ShagBark 2008-11-15 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right..... No There There

I mean, Democrats use rhetoric to win elections too, rhetoric they sometimes don't follow through with, but yeah, in general, Democrats are more interested in governing well than Republicans.

And I'm not sure how to prove it just yet, but I believe that beyond all else, the American people respond to good governance, especially dramatically good governance.

by J Ro 2008-11-15 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right..... No There There

I think the immediate shift in the Republicans priorities will come from wherever the Democrats fail most badly in their governance.

Right now that is hard to forsee because we haven't failed at anything yet, but by 2011 as the primaries start there will probably be something that the Republicans can rally against. In 2008 there was the unknown fear of what Obama might do (which were outlandish, frankly) versus something that Obama has actually done, or something like -- if the economy hasn't improved enough, it would give Romney an opening.

If their time in the wilderness is longer than 4 or 8 years, that's a situation where some new ideas might start popping up, rather than reactionary ones.

by indythink 2008-11-15 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right


Im seeing the same thing on the conservative blogs I frequent: massive Republican denial that their fundamental assumptions (dogma since Nixon) no longer hold.

McCain and Giuliani represent the formula created by Nixon, run on by GWBush, which assumes a society that accepts the conventions and worldview of circa 1968 and fears to change it.  The American People voted for that one last time, and just barely, in the 2004 Fear Of Change election. That and the politicians that represent it are now refuted and rejected.

Romney and Palin represent the next/early bankrupcy stage of that thinking, the conventions and worldview of around 1980 and the awful sort of semieducated, vain, basically empty suits that are the epitome of the early Reagan Era, including the man himself.

Schwarzenegger is very much a European politician.  He understands what the national GOP does not about domestic policy, which is that Republicans have to accept their role as being conservatives and critics within the framework of a social democratic state/set of institutions and political logic.  Denial and clinging to the small government and dogmatic social inequality phantasmagoras may still work very short term, but it has no future.

On foreign policy, the game is all about finishing the last remains of the Cold War that involve Americans and regionally confining all those remains of it that do not.  And the future is all about the competition and cooperation of continental size alliances that are massive economic units: the European Union, the eventual North American/Caribbean Union, East Asia, and one or two others.  No Republican can yet get over the racial, cultural, and economic implications of this with their Party because its wings are still overcommitted to racist, classist/materialist, and religionist dogmatisms.  It is going to take a decade or more of Greatest Generation and early Boomer conservative dieout before they can snap out of Cold War and white/Christian privilege nostalgia is my estimate.

They haven't had to think for forty years.  It's a hard thing to learn, they're having horrible trouble with it and many never will.

by killjoy 2008-11-15 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

Absolutely. I mean, I'm being a bit unfair by noting Republicans haven't got it yet. Their still largely stunned, grasping at straws. It might take a while to wake up.

by J Ro 2008-11-15 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

A deep current through American politics seems to be a reverence for "common sense." The complexities in a rapidly changing world cannot be fully understood by anyone, no matter how well informed, so we rely on what seems to "feel right" when making many of our decisions.

Part of the conservative successes of the last 30 years had to do with the creation of the dominant themes of common sense. Their ideas were hammered into the American psyche relentlessly until it reached the point where all arguments started from the position that conservative ideas were the axioms of discourse. Regulation is bad, deregulation is good. Government isn't the solution, it's the problem. Knowledge is bad, faith is good, etc... These themes really took hold.

Unfortunately for conservatism, we've spent much of the last 30 years putting their ideas into practice and it hasn't turned out well. Going forward, I think conservatives really need to come to terms with the fact that conservatism has in fact been tried and it is unsustainable.

There are dangers to too much government but there are real dangers in too little. There are dangers in to much regulation but (as the current financial meltdown so perfectly illustrates) there are huge dangers in having too little. There are dangers in relying too much on objective "reality" but there are huge dangers when we rely too heavily on faith.

I could see a "conservative" rebirth if they ditch that term and really look at the world with fresh eyes. Conservatism has always seemed like an artificial philosophy built to support preconceptions. If they are truly to be reborn in any meaningful sense, conservatives are going to have to ditch their preconceptions, their unshakable certainties about how the world "is" and should be and build a new philosophy around the facts of a changing world.

Which tax model produces the optimal balance between stability and innovation? Which ethical model produces the optimal balance between freedom and morality. Which wealth distribution model produces the optimal balance between fairness and ambition. If conservatives really want to invent themselves anew, ditch their axiom manufacturing "think tanks" and create axiom "discovery tanks." Figure out the best way to improve America rather than the best way to spin it.

by ktoz 2008-11-15 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

To put it another way, Obama set about reclaiming common sense. He talked to Americans like adults - and he certainly values intellectualism - but he talks to people within their experience.

The Republican party would do better if they realized common sense does not mean dumb.

by J Ro 2008-11-16 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

I think that a strong environmental platform and healthcare reform are the two wings where a rebirth or a reinvigoration will occur. The former dovetails nicely with the hunters and gun owners, thus an increase in interest in mountain states, and the religious, as in the stewards of creation. The writing is on the wall here for the typical moneyed republican against this and indeed, the environmental costs of doing business is getting factored into any business, look at the IBM green ads. Nice politics while sellable to all wings right now.

Secondly, the healthcare and pension costs are crippling businesses, though the latter is all pretty much isolated in automotive, air lines, etc. There will be a consensus on some kind of universal health, even to the point of the agreement of it as a right, if necessary, how that works out will a matter of how strong Obama and the Dems are. If the republicans take this off the table, like the Dems did with Guns, then there is a less reasons not to vote for Republicans.

In the long run, the Republicans cannot ignore HC and the environmental issues if they would like to make some kind of headway with the young. The 5 and 6 years of the world are now raised on organic is good, so this steadfast association of environmentalism with the 60's and the hippies has to go for the republican. Indeed, if Obama is reelected, the "summer of love" is almost 50 years in the past when that election comes up. Hippies are going to be as romanticized as Capone, see The Godfather, in the 80's.

by EasaDara 2008-11-15 03:55PM | 0 recs
I don't think the GOP will re-emerge

more moderate for at least another decade. I say this because the party leaders are still Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, and the front runners for their 2012 nominating contest are Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich, all members of the very far right. They don't care for centrism. This shows the cons still run the party, and don't intend on giving their power away until it is taken away. No one at all is suggesting ANYTHING wrong with any of their policies.

They will not re-emerge until they get their own Bill Clinton and their own DLC to lead their way out of the political wilderness. The Dems began to admit things were wrong with their policies and perception of such in the late '80s, whereas the Republicans merely think they were just not con enough. None of their candidates have appeal beyond Appalachia, the South, and the plains/upper rockies.

by Lakrosse 2008-11-15 10:39PM | 0 recs
An Idahoan's view

I think a lot of voters adopt one party or the other as young adults, and then stick with that party.

I come from a state where families are still mostly large and extended, where religion is important, and prosperity or poverty still depends on forces largely outside our control. In this environment, conservatism pays practical dividends in most of life, not just politics. And because this is so, conservatism is easy to accept and adopt politically for most folks. While Idaho is changing and growing fast, it remains a place where it's easy to travel for hours and see only a few people along the way. It remains a place where self-reliance is a physical necessity as much as a political philosophy, and the  physical requirements of living here make us all more conservative.

This is true with most of the Intermountain West, and isn't going to change. In fact, folks who move here become changed more than they change the natives.

I became a Democrat after being deeply offended by comments made by then-VP Spiro Agnew regarding the protest turmoil that boiled all over the Viet Nam war. As a young man, recently discharged from the military, I was an eye witness to both sides, and Spiro was just wrong, wrong. He's long dead and forgotten, lying in fading disgrace, but my distaste for the Republicans has remained with me almost 40 years later.

The reverse is true with one of my closest friends and a former Navy buddy. While in the service, neither of us was political at all, and if anything, he was more liberal in outlook than I, but after his business failed due to Carter's 20% interest rates on operating loans, he became a Republican, and remains so to this day.

But we agree on many things from both parties. He is distressed over the neo-con takeover, and I'm distressed by the recent Democrat thirst for revenge. I don't agree with any of the "Break Their Backs' statements at all.

I find that voting for the 'other side' requires a lot. A lot of dissatisfaction, a lot of overcoming family traditions, close community traditions, one's basic beliefs, church, and basic views of the world. Depending on how these things are mixed, and how one sees the mix as a success or failure, requires more than a lot of experienced voters can manage when it comes to crossing over from one party or the other.

I expect the Republicans are just beginning the hard and troubling process of realignment. It took a new generation of Democrats to break down the gates, starting in 2005 with the young militants who dragged our party's pundits back to thinking like true liberals and convinced them to quit trying to out-play the Republicans by their rules. We didn't lose time after time for the past 28 years without good reasons, and we were just as prone to sticking to our failing ways as the Republicans are now.

While the Republicans are just starting to sort themselves out, they are as capable of swift change as we are, and I'm not convinced they will remain in the outer reaches for long. Sarah Palin wasn't the right person, but there are many other like her, but who are better and smarter, in the West. We haven't seen them yet, but they're there. All it will take is a newcomer with the same aspirational qualities Reagan and Obama had, combined with the right conservative philosophy. I expect to see a new person arise soon, and that person, because the West is changing so fast, may well come from my neck o' the woods.

by banjomike 2008-11-16 12:55AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

There is one risk I don't see discussed here. The Democrats lost power because with their innovations came rising crime, more active protests, and generally a greater sense of chaos.

The same risk exists now for the same reasons: there is a huge demographic youth bulge in the population. So youth policies and crime policies are critical but it is also important to realize that aggregate crime will go up and that there will be other associated problems. Owning the dialogue for that now, looking at cohorts, is an important part in maintaining the progressive dominance in point of view.

by redwagon 2008-11-16 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

Yeah, I fully expect crime to be a big issue in 2012.

by J Ro 2008-11-16 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The Next Right

I can think of no examples where a political movement lost power of long standing and immediately went on toward reform.

It almost always takes a second, harder lesson. Walter Mondale was that lesson a generation ago. Michael Foot was that lesson for the Labour Party of England (and it still took another 13 years for them to get back in).

The first impulse is always to be more what you are. And I think President Obama can take advantage of that. I think he already has, in bringing a significant amount of business support to his side.

For Democrats the challenge is to absorb these new people without becoming them. Reagan succeeded at that.

How do we turn today's "Obama Republicans" into regular Democrats without changing our principles? That's what we need to be working on here at MyDD.

by Dana Blankenhorn 2008-11-16 10:21AM | 0 recs

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