Cook: 12 GOP Senators Potentially Vulnerable, Just 6 Dems
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 03:39:37 PM EST
The earliest Senate 2010 race rankings are now out from the Cook Political Report, and as I've said before, the map looks remarkably good for the Democrats.
According to Cook, 12 Republican Senate seats are potentially competitive, six of which are already in the competitive category -- and three of those are currently rated as "tossups." In comparison, just six Democratic seats are viewed as potentially competitive, none of which are already competitive.
The top targets for the Democrats, per Cook, are Mel Martinez of Florida, Jim Bunning of Kentucky (who might retire), and David Vitter of Louisiana, the seats of each of which are viewed as tossups. I might quibble with the latter, making it more like "leans Republican." Even though Vitter has a prostitution problem, Democrats haven't fared too well in statewide elections in Louisiana in recent years, with Barack Obama earning just 40 percent of the vote in the state and even two-term Democratic incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu getting only 52 percent of the vote.
After that, Cook puts the seats of Sam Brownback of Kansas (who might retire), Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania (who might retire) in the "leans Republican" category. I'm a bit skeptical about the Democrats' chances in Oklahoma, as the last two several Senate elections in the state haven't been great for the party, but otherwise the list seems sensible.
Within the potentially competitive "likely Republican" category Cook lists Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Kit Bond of Missouri, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Richard Burr of North Carolina, George Voinovich of Ohio and John Thune of South Dakota. I don't see Alaska or South Dakota coming together for the Democrats, but if they do, great.
A couple of wildcards to look out for that Cook currently rates as safe are Iowa, where Chuck Grassley may retire, and Georgia, which appears to be becoming more competitive and where Johnny Isakson is only in his first term.
Again, as I've noted before, the pickings for the Republicans are significantly thinner. Cook rates six seats as likely Democratic, or potentially but not yet competitive. These seats are those of Barbara Boxer in California, Ken Salazar in Colorado, Harry Reid in Nevada, Byron Dorgan in North Dakota, Patty Murray in Washington, and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. I might keep an eye on Obama's seat in Illinois, which Cook calls safe, but otherwise the Democrats shouldn't have to play too much defense this coming cycle.
But, of course, before then it's important to finish off this cycle -- so contribute now to Jim Martin's effort in Georgia.
Tags: Senate 2010 (all tags)
-----------
myDD - skin
-----------
31 Comments