Yesterday I noted some of the speculation over potential picks for Barack Obama's cabinet. Today Marc Ambinder gives some good advice to those hoping to read the tea leaves: Listen to what you're not hearing.

New rule in Washington: those who are being seriously considered for a cabinet position or a senior-level staff position are keeping very, very, quiet. "Sorry, can't talk," is a response reporters are getting a lot these days.

So this public appearance by Sen. Chuck Hagel caught my attention: he's scheduled to speak next week at what's billed as the "Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum" at Johns Hopkins in Washington....

I tend to buy this rationale -- with a key caveat. The Obama campaign's efforts to plug leaks was remarkable and perhaps even unprecedented in American history, which along with the general "no drama" policy in the campaign strongly suggests that we aren't going to hear a great deal about appointments before they occur. However, and here's where this theory is called into question, the first major appointment of the coming administration -- that of Rahm Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff -- was clearly telegraphed ahead of time.

Nearly a week out from election day, the Associated Press reported that Emanuel had been approached by Obama to serve as Chief of Staff in the event of a Democratic victory. At the time, I didn't buy it, just for the reasons mentioned above. Why, I wondered, after a campaign largely free from leaks would such a move be leaked -- particularly in a way that could be spun by Republicans as premature drape-measuring? But as it turned out, my instincts were wrong, and Emanuel's hiring was in the cards.

So, yes, I do believe that it would be wise not to engage to too great an extent in the speculation game -- but do not necessarily assume just because you're hearing chatter that it's just throwing you off the mark.