Obama's small-town outreach is crushing McCain's

In August I compared Barack Obama's field operations in several states to what John McCain's campaign was putting together and concluded that Obama's small-town outreach would crush McCain's.

Keeping Republican margins down in small towns and rural areas has the potential to put many more states in the blue column. This diary by ManfromMiddletown shows why with lots of maps.

I am happy to report that with less than a month to go, the Obama campaign is deploying its army of staff and volunteers to get out the vote in scores of cities and towns where the McCain campaign is nowhere to be seen except on television.

Iowa isn't much of a swing state, with five recent polls putting Obama over 50 percent and beating McCain by at least 10 points. Nevertheless, the Obama campaign is taking no chances here. They've got more than 40 field offices. They've been canvassing in dozens of communities, large and small, every weekend since July. During the week, surrogates for Obama are regularly holding "rural roundtables" and other campaign events.

It's easy for volunteers in larger communities to sign up to help in small towns. One of my friends showed me the Obama 08 application on his iPhone yesterday. Among other things, it shows you volunteer opportunities in your area. For instance, he saw that they need people to hand out Obama-Biden stickers in the Covered Bridges parade this weekend in Winterset (25 miles from his home in the Des Moines suburbs). Contact information for the relevant Obama office and field organizer was right there, along with a link he could click if he needed directions.

When early voting began in Iowa the last week of September, Obama's campaign organized 21 phone banks and 17 supporter gatherings around the state within a 24-hour period.

Today the Obama campaign in Iowa launched an early voting RV tour. Click the link for a list of stops this RV will make just in the first two days of the tour. There is a particular focus on small college campuses and high schools in small cities and towns.

This pattern is being repeated around the country. While McCain and the Republican National Committee are scrambling to move staff into states like Indiana and Virginia, Obama has had field offices up and running for months.

The level of activity in Obama offices is very high. To cite just one example, Obama has more than 40 field offices in Missouri. McCain has 15 Missouri offices, up from six in August. But as Sean Quinn noted in this post about his road trip to Missouri, hardly anything is happening in the typical McCain field office:

Let's be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there's a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain's state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.

Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.[...]

You could take every McCain volunteer we've seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama's single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

A ground game can't win an election by itself, but it should help Obama squeeze many more votes out of a favorable political climate.

I was a precinct captain for John Kerry in 2004, and Obama's ground game is several orders of magnitude better. Kerry's GOTV mostly focused on cities and suburbs, and in particular on heavily Democratic precincts. In many cases, MoveOn or America Coming Together volunteers were duplicating our efforts by knocking on the same doors and calling the same people.

Obama is getting the vote out in cities and suburbs, but I suspect his investment in small towns will give him the decisive edge in enough red states to put him over 270 electoral votes. It's been a while since Republican presidential candidates had to work hard for votes in those areas, and McCain's campaign doesn't seem up to the task.

Tags: 2008 elections, Activism, Barack Obama, Colorado, GOTV, Iowa, John McCain, Missouri, president, volunteering (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Re: Obama's small-town outreach

I think you're right.  It will make the difference in Missouri.

by TomP 2008-10-08 01:53PM | 0 recs
this summer I thought MO was a head fake

by Obama to make McCain spend time and money there, but now I am starting to believe he can win that state.

How does it feel to you? Obviously it's a lot better than Kerry, who pulled the plug on Missouri with a month to go.

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-08 02:02PM | 0 recs
David Axelrod's

Plan was to put everything in play he could.

What he needed was the money, and we gave it to him.

Stranger still, we boomers gave him something else.

A generation of kids, the millenials, that we made TEAM players, that we DRILLED into them, being succesful, join, contribute.

They are better footsoldiers then we boomers were, we were too undisciplined for this kind of organization.

He has the army, he has the money.

He is going to win the campaign.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-08 01:59PM | 0 recs
Sean Quinn from 538 on his road trip

... found the McCain GOTV operation in trouble:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/o n-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

The whole road trip series of blogs is great, but this one was a real eye-opener.

by prem28885 2008-10-08 02:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Sean Quinn from 538 on his road trip

Oh crap should have read the last couple of paras .. . sorry.

by prem28885 2008-10-08 02:14PM | 0 recs
Hmmm

Desmoinesdem:  But as Sean Quinn noted in this post about his road trip to Missouri, hardly anything is happening in the typical McCain field office:

Sean Quinn: Let's be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns.

A post where he said they can't compare, you are using it to compare. I agree with you but I find this somewhat troublesome.

by MNPundit 2008-10-08 02:19PM | 0 recs
I read his italicized sentence to mean

that there's no comparison, because Obama's campaign is so much better.

Have you read his whole post? Clearly he is not arguing that we should not compare the ground games. He is making the point that they never seem to see anything happening in the McCain offices.

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-08 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: I read his italicized sentence to mean

Right -

Actually, the entire 538 "on the road" series is an excellent read.  I believe they started in New Mexico, went up through Nevada, moved on to Colorado, etc.  

Sean is absolutely comparing the two.

I think that both he and you are also 10000% right.  I volunteered on several occasions for both Kerry and several progressive orgs in fall 2004.  

Night and day.

One Kerry canvasing event I went to in mid-October 2004, into Wisconsin, the 'leader' was late, we had a real lack of any literature, there was zero help for first-time canvassers, and they didn't even have us RECORD anything!  We were basically given street maps, assignments, and sent on our way.

A similar Obama event?   Heh... the organizers have been there prepping for a while, there's plenty of lit, they quickly work through the volunteers --- help out those who are first-timers, pair up vets with novices, and you better believe they want every shred of data they can get back on your results....

Not even close.

by zonk 2008-10-08 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: I read his italicized sentence to mean

Yes I did read the whole post, before yours.

Let me paraphrase, he's saying "Because we weren't allowed to visit the campaign office, we CANNOT make an apples-to-apples comparison. We have no comparable Data on the McCain operation."

So he has to generalize about what he saw making it a flawed comparison.

I'm looking at this from a scientific sense.

by MNPundit 2008-10-12 10:59AM | 0 recs
Ambinder is reporting that...

the campaign is sending both Hildebrand and Tewes to Florida.  

50 offices, about 300 paid staff and 10,000 volunteers.  Plus, the campaign is spending 3 million a week on ads in Florida.  The campaign budget for Florida is $39,000,000.  Biden did two events in Florida today.

They must feel pretty good about Colorado and Virginia, the real 270 tipping point States.

by mboehm 2008-10-08 03:03PM | 0 recs
it's good to hear

that Obama's operation is doing so well.  I remember fears that he would pull out and leave the rest of the ticket in the lurch.

by John DE 2008-10-08 03:16PM | 0 recs
I am relieved

Obama did pull out of North Dakota and (mostly) Georgia, which may be affecting down-ticket candidates there, but so far, so good in Iowa. I'm surprised, frankly, because this state doesn't seem very competitive.

My main worry now is that a lot of first-time voters will check the box for Obama without filling out the whole ballot. I hope canvassers and phone bankers are urging people to vote Democratic all the way down the ticket.

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-08 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: I am relieved

I am still seeing Obama ad buys here in Atlanta.  I am not sure if they are local or national ad buys though.

I saw several ads last night on TV during Prime Time and during late night (David Letterman).

I have not seen any McCain ads on TV for a while.

by gavoter 2008-10-09 06:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's small-town outreach is crushing McCain

Has anyone looked at the churches? Those are McCains GOTV machines. I would be very pleased if someone checked out the activities in the small churches. And also documented this to remove their tax exempt status, frankly.

Obama has some churches working for him but the Christian Soldiers are the republican machine. The Great American Christian Taliban, calling other people terrorists. Oh the irony!

by redwagon 2008-10-09 05:11AM | 0 recs

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