Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits New High in Gallup

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 09:41:54 AM EDT

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	46	44
Gallup	51	42
Rasmussen Reports	52	44
Research 2000/dKos	52	41


Average:	50.25	42.75

While the Gallup, Rasmussen and R2K polls are converging in their results, the Hotline poll is clearly moving in another direction. Note that there has been a significant shift in the partisan weighting of the Hotline survey -- today's sample includes 40 percent Democrats and 38 percent Republicans, a significantly narrower difference than has been present in other polling.

Today's Battleground tracker (.pdf) gives Barack Obama the same 50 percent to 43 percent advantage he enjoyed in the survey yesterday. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (.pdf) gives Obama a similar 49 percent to 43 percent lead, polling from CBS News (.pdf) shows Obama up by a narrower 48 percent to 45 percent margin, and CNN's polling gives Obama a wider 53 percent to 45 percent margin. Throw all of these surveys into the mix (and no, unlike Real Clear Politics, I will not include the wildly unreliable Zogby polling), Obama's average lead in today's polling is 50.1 percent to 43.4 percent.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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Pollster.com

has Obama at 320 today in the EC. They had him at 290 last night. It's a very pretty map, and the one that I tend to study closest.

by Beltway Dem 2008-10-07 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Where did the 30 EV's come from?

They flipped Florida. I'm not sure what accounts for the extra three EVs.

by Beltway Dem 2008-10-07 09:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Where did the 30 EV's come from?

Florida and Colorado were already flipped yesterday, for 296.

Today they flipped New Hampshire and Ohio.

Next up: Virginia and Nevada :)

by sab39 2008-10-07 10:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Where did the 30 EV's come from?

Thanks! And for your reward, go and check out these great pictures of Obama holding lots of different babies.

by Beltway Dem 2008-10-07 10:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: I like the third picture

It's the big ears. Kids like big ears.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-07 10:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update:

I find it funny that the R2k poll jumps ahead... then people say it's an outlier, then the other trackers slowly come into line with it (I think this has happened 2x now). Seems to me that indicates it is a leader rather than an outlier.

by notedgeways 2008-10-07 10:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update:

Yea I have noticed, now their Obama number is consistent with Gallup and Ras.

R2K is a pretty reputable pollster and its a shame some people should doubt it just because the funding is from kos(and yet hold Rasmussen in high regard which is basically the same thing).This tracker is WAY more transparent than other trackers in their methodology and break downs as well.

by YourConcernsAreNoted 2008-10-07 10:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Hits New High in G

I was canvassing in Scranton, PA over the weekend and was happy to note the support for Obama and the paltry support for McCain. I saw a few yard signs, but while talking with one retired gentleman who was an ardent Obama supporter, he explained to me that the McCain people had been through the night before and left those signs. He told me he knew the neighbors in whose yards they were displayed and assured me that although they agreed to let McCain's people put signs there, they NEVER VOTE! So much for small deceptions, eh?!

Obama's gonna take PA no problem! Just like my homestate of New Jersey!

by owlskinner 2008-10-07 10:42AM | 0 recs

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Typos on Hotline website

I don't trust any poll where they can't even spell the word "handling" and instead have "handing" =D

by al91206 2008-10-07 10:59AM | 0 recs

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Dow down another 5%

The broader S&P is also down 5%. Not a good night for talking about economic issues.

This means that we are now down almost 33% year over year. Not exactly a good way for the GOP to be limping out of the White House.

by gavoter 2008-10-07 11:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: Dow down another 5%

Limping?

They are sneaking out in the dead of night, after robbing the place blind.

Dick Cheney should already be in prision.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-07 12:19PM | 0 recs

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The Outliers are pretty clear today

Hotline and Zogby. Of course Zogby is nearly always the outlier.

by cmpnwtr 2008-10-07 12:15PM | 0 recs