Tracking Poll Update: Obama Crosses the 50 Percent Threshold

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 09:33:55 AM EDT

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	41
Gallup	50	42
Rasmussen Reports	51	45
Research 2000/dKos	52	40


Average:	50.25	42.00

Note that this is the first time since the four tracking polls have been watching the race that Barack Obama has topped 50 percent in his four-poll average. Ought to quiet those pundits asking (and I have seriously heard this in the past couple of days) why Obama hasn't topped the 50 percent threshold.

Note, too, that in the single-day sample of 359 likely voters from R2K (MoE +/- 5%), which occurred in the day after the Vice Presidential debate, John McCain actually slipped below the 40 percent marker, coming in with an unimpressive 39 percent showing. The movement from the previous day when McCain was at 40 percent was not significant. Nevertheless, it cannot be very encouraging to Republicans to be polling in the 30s exactly one month out from election day.

This, of course, does not mean that it is time to let up. Far from it. Get out an knock on some doors this weekend to help work for numbers like today's to get written into the history books on November 4.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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ITS OUR TIME

Johnathan it's so obvious right now that people are ready to move on. Obama is hitting on all cylinders right now. The Movement Moves On. Wait till the September Numbers come out, word is Obama set a NEW RECORD!!!

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-04 09:38AM | 0 recs

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One quibble

Ought to quiet those pundits asking (and I have seriously heard this in the past couple of days) why Obama hasn't topped the 50 percent threshold.

It won't. The new "concern" will be "Has he peaked too early?".

Rule 1: The Democrat Will Always Have a Serious Problem in His Campaign.

Rule 2: The Republican May Occasionally Be Faced With a Challenge.

by Neef 2008-10-04 10:59AM | 0 recs

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It's great news!...

... for John McCain!

Obviously now the Democrats will all come down with a massive case of overconfidence and McCain will come roaring back.

Rule 3: Everything is great news for John McCain.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-04 12:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

Obama crosses 50% in the polls and the Repubs announce that they will be striking a more aggressive (aka negative) tone in the campaign.

This oughta be interesting.

by JDF 2008-10-04 10:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

As Krauthammer said, you only get two hail marys. This marks four. People, especially independents that McCain is ostensibly trying to get, really, really, really, really, really don't want to hear attacks right now. Not from John McCain, not from Sarah Palin. The more negative they go on character, the more that voters will get pissed off.

Besides that, I honestly think people don't give a damn about Obama and Rezko and they don't buy that Obama was eager to make friends with a terrorist. Obama is from Chicago. Attacking him for having somewhat shady acquaintances is like attacking Barbara Boxer for having celebrity friends.

by vcalzone 2008-10-04 11:23AM | 0 recs

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People have had

Two years to get to know Obama. In some ways, he has been the most visible politician in America for that entire time.

I just don't think his narrative is as "fluid" as it once was. People have come to their opinions on him, and it would take more than rehashed smears to make a big dent.

NEW information, that would be a problem. But Wright and Ayers are not going to bring him crashing down, and given McCain's image issues, backfire isn't impossible.

by Neef 2008-10-04 11:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: People have had

Indeed, that's why voters are so tired of it. It's getting to the point where even new information would be hard to shift things. Voters look to the convention and debate to get a handle on a candidate's personality and integrity, The stuff that could do damage now would be deus-ex-macchina stuff. I hope Obama's campaign is putting together action-response plans for any foreign policy issue that might arise from now to November. Everything from the capture of Bin Laden to Iran announcing a nuke to Saddam Hussein's headless corpse rising from the grave (which would probably be closest into Palin's territory).

by vcalzone 2008-10-04 12:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: People have had

I think backlash is virtually guaranteed. Negative ads virtually always backlash, if the person running them has a fairly low approval rating. The hope of the McCain camp is that they sway undecideds and suppress Obama turnout enough that the self-inflicted damage isn't too high.

However, I agree with you that Obama's position vis-a-vis the sorts of attacks McCain has available is pretty well set, and on new information he'd likely get the benefit of the doubt. Witness the great impact the kindergarten ad had on the race; I don't think anyone not in the tank for McCain really thought Obama was out to teach kindergartners the details about sex.

Wright? Ayres? Rezko? Flag pins? National anthem? Heard them. Raise your taxes? Obama's already blasting away at that. Most liberal senator? Even if it were true, which it's not, is that really a game-changer at this point? Unready/inexperienced? Heard it, and most people seem to think otherwise.

New attacks -- maybe. But with McCain's negatives, and Obama's positives, and the calendar, I think even low-info voters who are genuinely undecided will take the negative message with a big grain of salt.

And of those who are decided, the enthusiasm gap pretty much dictates that turnout suppression hurts McCain worse than Obama.

My bet right now is that this barrage will probably put one or two states in play. Unfortunately for McCain, I think those states are much more likely to be, say, Georgia, or Montana, or the Dakotas, or West Virginia, or even Texas, than they are to be any state Obama's already leading in.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-04 12:14PM | 0 recs

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Re: People have had

Most liberal senator? Even if it were true, which it's not, is that really a game-changer at this point?

Great point, and I think it highlights one of the GOP's great campaign flaws in this cycle. They are campaigning as if the entire country were their base.

The Dem convention was all about selling. It was persuasive. "Here's Michelle, she's likable, here's Barack, he's ready to lead". In contrast, the GOP convention went on the attack about Obama, assuming people were already sold on McCain. Unless you already agreed with the RNC, their speeches seemed incredibly petty and negative. "Community Organizers suck!!".

Is "most liberal" even THAT big a smear? It's anathema to the far right, but to the middle it should carry no more weight than "most conservative" - which certainly describes Palin.

It seems Republicans have lost the ability to reach out to the middle, and I suspect (or hope) this negative campaign will continue that trend.

by Neef 2008-10-04 03:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

The biggest problem with negative attacks is that it cuts directly against their message of being a "Team of Mavericks" who reach across party lines. You can't convince people you'll work with Democrats after you finish a 30-minute screed against their character.

Obama would be wise to point this out. He can say (paraphrased) "If they can't campaign on issues with Democrats, what means you think they can govern with Democrats?"

by Homebrewer 2008-10-04 12:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update

"The biggest problem with negative attacks is that it cuts directly against their message of being a "Team of Mavericks" who reach across party lines."

THEY COULD CARE LESS. WIN BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-04 12:36PM | 0 recs

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Why are MyDD post titles too long to RE? Lame!

Personally I'm wondering to what extent R2K poll skews the numbers. That one has always been more Obama/Dem friendly as R2K has been in the past. Maybe Kos needs to switch to another polling outfit next time.

by MNPundit 2008-10-04 05:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Crosses the 50 Per

I remember watching the polls in 04 where Kerry was slightly behind within the margin of error but would lead from time to time. I worried about that trend then.

Obama seems to be leading more often than not. I gotta think this is good for him. I don't have enough background in statistics, but if you constantly poll and find the same outcome, even if it is within the margin of error, that has to mean something.

Any stats geeks here to educate me on this:)

by nintendofanboy 2008-10-04 07:40PM | 0 recs