Check out the latest Research 2000 polling commissioned by Daily Kos of 600 likely Arizona voters in the field October 28 through October 30.

If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

McCain-Palin: 48 percent (42 percent of those already voting)
Obama-Biden: 47 percent (54 percent of those already voting)

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

John McCain (R): 45 percent
Janet Napolitano (D): 53 percent

That's right -- John McCain is just about tied in his home state, and if his 2010 reelection bid were today and were he running against Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano he would lose.

Don't believe these numbers? The McCain campaign apparently does, because they have scheduled McCain to campaign in Arizona ahead of election day.

Sen. John McCain will be in Prescott on election eve, according to the Yavapai County Republican Party.

He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state.

With rumors that Barack Obama will touch down for a brief stop to stump in Arizona before election day and now hard news that the Obama campaign would be running this ad in Arizona (along with North Dakota and Georgia), we now have reason to believe that the race in the state may actually be edging towards "tossup" status (even as it likely still leans a bit towards the Republicans).