Tracking Poll Update: McCain Still Can't Top 45 Percent

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:18:17 AM EDT

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	42
Gallup (Trad)	50	45
Gallup (Exp)	51	44
Rasmussen Reports	51	46
Research 2000/dKos	50	45


Composite:	49.875	44.375

The Washington Post/ABC News tracker (.pdf) from yesterday has Barack Obama up 52 percent to 44 percent over John McCain, and for the fifth straight day the Battleground tracker (.pdf) found Obama leading 49 percent to 43 percent. According to Ben Smith, a forthcoming New York Times/CBS News poll will show Obama up by an 11-point margin.

By the way, are undecideds the savior for the McCain campaign? Maybe not.

We are 5 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Update [2008-10-30 13:37:47 by Todd Beeton]:More bad news for McCain: last night's Zogby tracker showed Barack back above 50% and with almost a 7 point lead (50.2-43.3) suggesting that McCain may have peaked.

With less than a week to go, todays numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s. Obama increased his lead among independents compared to yesterday, has moved into a lead among men, and still holds about one in five conservatives. But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer.

Hmm, no Drudge siren announcing that one? He is, however, touting the new Fox News poll, which shows McCain within 3, having closed the gap by 6 points in just a week.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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looking better?

Actually, Battleground is stuck in a 49-46 rut. But Zogby jumped from 4.7 to 6.9.

So maybe the tightening has bottomed out? We shall see, but it's better than the past two days.

And I'm seeing much more no on 8 activity in my area, a positive sign.

by esconded 2008-10-30 09:28AM | 0 recs

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Re: looking better?

I am glad to see the No on 8. My partner and I live in Georgia, but still it would be nice to know that we could move to California and get married out there (Massachusetts is too cold).

I am dissappointed in Schwartzenegger right now. He promised that he would campaign against it, but from what I understand he hasn't done anything.

by gavoter 2008-10-30 09:34AM | 0 recs

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We Should Be A Little Nervous

McCain appears to be closing the gap, thus we can't become too complacent. We have to work hard in the next six days. On November 5th we can sleep in.

by Zzyzzy 2008-10-30 09:32AM | 0 recs

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The question is WHERE is he closing it and is

there enough time?

It's all about the electoral map now, who cares where undecideds in CA or TX go?

I am watching FL and PA, that is the end game.

McCain needs both IMO, or Obama is the next President.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-30 09:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: We Should Be A Little Nervous

I don't think that the gap is closing that much. Gallup shows Obama regaining a statistically significant lead and he is back over 50%. Other polls seem to be showing the same thing.

Here in Georgia almost 1.6 Million people have already early voted. This is almost 50% of all votes in 2004 and there are still two days to go. I do not think anyone is complacent and everyone I know is still working hard on getting out the vote.

There are also only 5 days left until the election.

by gavoter 2008-10-30 09:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: We Should Be A Little Nervous

The gap was closing, but as we could have guessed, the Obama campaign's traditional strike force offensive defense opened it right back up. His ad took back a lot of momentum, and his steadiness of message is really making clear how many weird directions McCain keeps going in.

I'm still of the mindset that McCain doesn't want to win this race at ALL anymore. If he won on election night, I think he might start to cry.

by vcalzone 2008-10-30 10:05AM | 0 recs

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Tightening my ass.

Drudge will be reporting developing, shocker, tight, and all that other crap when looking at these polls.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-30 09:40AM | 0 recs

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Fox

The tightening in their poll is all partisan ID. It went from 43-36 Dem to 41-39 Dem among likely voters.

But it's out there. And I presume Drudge touted that Mason-Dixon PA poll also.

by esconded 2008-10-30 09:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Fox

Wow, I didn't even know that part. I just assumed that they saw the memo from McCain's campaign manager and scrambled immediately, "Quick, the tide is in our favor! Poll now, while we're still towards the top of the wave!"

by vcalzone 2008-10-30 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: Fox

Joe Scarborough practically shat himself over that PA poll.

I'm worried about the young voter turnout. I went out there and voted, I've been phonebanking, where my dawgs at? Is the young vote something they're planning to push harder on the day of the election?

by vcalzone 2008-10-30 10:02AM | 0 recs

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Re: Fox

Ok, NOW I'M CONCERNED!

If the young don't vote, McCain wins.

If we see signs that the young are not voting early, I need to start drinking early.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-30 10:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: Fox

At least here in Georgia, the young were voting. When I was in line back on 10/10 I would guess that more people were younger than me (38) than older. It looked like a lot of young first time voters.

by gavoter 2008-10-30 10:36AM | 0 recs

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Re: Young Don't Vote Early

I wouldn't drink too much over the young not voting early. Most are going to be first time voters. They don't usually vote early. They're young - they want to full impact of voting on Nov 4th for posterity.

But as far as PA is concerned - all Obama needs is Iowa, N.H., Va. Co. and NV. Everyone thinks that Iowa, N.H., Va and Co are in the bag for Obama. If NV goes Obama he doesn't need Ohio, FLA or PA and he still wins.

NV is his firewall - not Pa.

by CB Todd 2008-10-30 10:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Young Don't Vote Early

Really interesting spin, never looked at it that way, that NV could be the linchpin.

I guess, the math really does work against McCain, he has to basically discard 4 card and draw to a straight.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-30 10:27AM | 0 recs

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Million points of light

Wait for the millions points of light. In this case: millions of text messages lighting up cell phones on Nov. 4 saying "the stakes are high; you must vote today".

Not to mention the GOTV. The young are going to vote!

by mikeinsf 2008-10-30 11:46AM | 0 recs

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Whatever makes it seem close, Drudge will report

As the underdog, it's in his best interest to generate the notion that this election is close.

It also will help the inevitible meme of a "Stolen" or "unfair" outcome.

Still, I'm waiting to screen capture the "Obama wins!" headline from him in 5 days. I hope it pains him more thana nything in life to write it :)

by iohs2008 2008-10-30 11:47AM | 0 recs

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Youth Vote

Being a young vote (yes I have already voted). I would not be concerned just yet. Young voters traditionally do not vote early.

The early voting that has taken place probably has grabbed some youth voters that normally would not have voted.

The GOTV in the last 72 hours is where the youth will come in.

by duffman1820 2008-10-30 10:31AM | 0 recs