Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 11:21:30 AM EDT

Here are today's numbers:

	Obama	McCain
Diageo/Hotline	48	42
Gallup	49	42
Rasmussen Reports	51	44
Research 2000/dKos	51	40


Average:	49.75	42.00

The Battleground tracker (.pdf) has Barack Obama up 49 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, and a slightly older Marist poll gives Obama a 49 percent to 44 percent lead.

Other than that, I've been out all morning, so still catching up with the day's news... What's on your mind?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

49.75 is a very nice place to be. It is a very big deal that most polls are now putting him at or above 50.

by gavoter 2008-10-03 11:39AM | 0 recs

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Really Fishy News Dump Alert!

Okay, it's Friday afternoon, and the McCain campaign has dropped Sarah Palin's tax returns onto its web site.

Even a cursory inspection of the documents suggests there's something fishy going on here. For instance, why was the tax return prepared after she was nominated for vice president?

Tax Prof Blog observes:

Note that the returns do not report the per diem reimbursement she received for travel, meals, and lodging expenses as governor of Alaska.

Oh, this is going to be really a lot of fun.

by Beltway Dem 2008-10-03 12:50PM | 0 recs

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7.75 point lead?

Why not 20? WHY can't Obama break 60??

If he doesn't do X, Y and Z now, this is over!

/fret

/notreally

by Neef 2008-10-03 11:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: 7.75 point lead?

Yeah! What gives? He should be eleventy million points ahead!!!!!!

PUMA

/snark

by fogiv 2008-10-03 11:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

Folks from the website 538 are repoting that the Obama campaign are putting more boots on the ground in Missouri.

by RandyMI 2008-10-03 11:49AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

Looking at the RCP battleground tracker, and considering Nate Silver's analysis that shows Obama has a composite lead of 6% or greater in enough states to guarantee him 269 EV's, it's getting awful hard to fight that overwhelming sense of confidence.

Either way, I will continue to donate, and phone bank - when I have time to do so.

One nice thing is I walk past the main Obama HQ every day here in Chicago on my way to and from the train, so whenever I have extra time I can just pop in there to sign up for some volunteer duty.

by John in Chicago 2008-10-03 11:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/nevada/election_2008_n evada_presidential_election

by Plinio 2008-10-03 12:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

I don't expect these numbers to change much over the next few days (which is fine with me.)

Keep working and keep cheering this train on. I feel like we are going to have a happy E-Day.

by JDF 2008-10-03 12:16PM | 0 recs

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Obama Leads in Nevada

Rasmussen

For the first time since July, Barack Obama has moved ahead of John McCain in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 51% of the vote while McCain earns 47%. Last month, McCain had a three-point advantage in this key southwestern state.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% of the state's voters, Obama by 53%.

As for their running mates, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden is viewed favorably by 52%, while 50% say the same about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

by RandyMI 2008-10-03 12:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama Leads in Nevada

If a Democrat leads nationally by 5-7 points, then it follows suit he leads in Nevada. Hardly complicated. The state is now very close to even partisanship with the nation, certainly within 2 points. It had slight blue partisan index in 2004.

National polls do matter. The states follow suit along logical relationship. It's amusing that national polls are not being dismissed on progressive sites anymore, unlike a couple of weeks ago, when the familiar simpleton blather was, "Who cares about national polls? They are meaningless! This is decided state by state."

by Gary Kilbride 2008-10-03 01:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Obama Leads in Nevada

Agree. The national polls lead the state polls by a few days. If they start slipping away again (though I don't think they'll ever have McCain in the lead anymore), we'll see more people again saying, "This latest Michigan poll has Obama up by 10 points!"

by vcalzone 2008-10-03 02:02PM | 0 recs

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Eugh....

I didn't know Tyler Perry was such a big Obama supporter. This won't be a dealbreaker, but I don't like it one bit.

Perry told the press he is already writing, and plans to direct and produce as soon as late this year, a love story inspired by the relationship between Obama and his wife Michelle.

Can Spike Lee put a stop to this, please?

by vcalzone 2008-10-03 12:57PM | 0 recs

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Re: Eugh....

Perry also has been stumping for Obama, most recently in the battleground state of Florida in front of faith-based groups because of his religious zeal. The entertainment mogul and native Southerner spoke to several hundred people at the New Mount Olive Baptist Church in Fort Lauderdale Friday to encourage them to register and vote for Obama. He said he'd never cast a ballot in his 39 years but recently registered in Georgia because Obama had moved him to do so, "not because Barack Obama is black. That would be a ridiculous reason to vote for somebody. [But because] he is the best candidate and the most qualified to lead this nation."

I don't think I've ever been so conflicted. I hate his movies and their blatant moralizing and sanctimony. But dammit, he's got HUGE credibility in an important demographic and I completely agree with him on this.

by vcalzone 2008-10-03 01:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tracking Poll Update: An Open Thread

she smiled like a beauty queen is what i was thinking. Smile Smile Smile

by 2liberal 2008-10-03 01:02PM | 0 recs

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Buh bye Mitch McConnell?

What is this world coming to when you can't buy votes with oxycontin and bathtub meth?

"In Kentucky, two successive polls - WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA and The Courier-Journal's Bluegrass Poll - came up with surprising and nearly identical results: Mitch McConnell's lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford in the U.S. Senate race had disappeared."

Ronnie Ellis
CNHI News Service

by mydailydrunk 2008-10-03 01:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Buh bye Mitch McConnell?

that is good news

by notedgeways 2008-10-03 01:46PM | 0 recs