Zogby can be taken as an outlier, and the numbers are still fairly strong. I anticipated this phase of the fight. McCain will pull out the stops now.
My prediction for the election:

Obama 57%
Mcain 39%

Because McCain is running with Karl Rove's campaign ideas, he will get Karl Rove-style results.

Here's Nate Silver's take.

Margin of error

Methodology differences

A margin of error of say 4% means Obama could be up to 4% lower AND McCain up to 4% higher. So a 10% lead could be 2%.

How you select and process your sample is also important. For it to truly be a "representative random sample" the pollster needs to have a sample that reflects the demographic makeup of the electorate. That can get difficult in more subjective categories like party affiliation.

Leaners and likely voters. Different methodologies for determining likely voters (see Gallup) and how hard to push a leaner on their preference. These are also volatile voters, especially this late in the game. For Obama and voting one day, for McCain but not voting the next.

A diarist on kos mentioned that one.  An open seat in a district that is just barely republican now.  Candidate has been a poor fundraiser, but man the fundamental conditions seem ripe for a switch.

That's a great call, desmoinesdem. I thought we learned our lesson in 2006, when many seats were left on the table despite our +31, or whatever it was. Tessa Hafen in NV-3 was a great example, obviously a potential victor throughout but all but ignored by the national committee until the final weeks.

If the generic lead hold and Obama wins big, the seats we targeted early are likely to win more decisively than we expected, leaving the fringe districts teetering and many unfunded seats frustratingly narrow defeats.

In 2010, assuming Obama wins and given the numbers/places we already hold, we will be playing defense everywhere -- House, senate and gov. This is the time to prioritize and pounce.

And wouldn't that be delicious.

but I think we may see the first ever joint stump appearances of Obama, Bill Clinton and HRC together in Ohio and Pennsylvania late next week (and possibly WV).

hehehe, that's pretty funny.

GOTV is the strongest I have ever seen in Georgia.  it is all about early voting.   There are signs all over Metro Atlanta reminding people to vote for Obama early and it appears to be working.    As of yesterday nearly 900,000 people have already cast ballots.  That is over 16% of all registered voters and there are still 7 early voting days left.

Put his head in a cryogenic tank?

Gotta be outliers...  I live here... this is going to be a tough state.  Rush Limbaugh is beloved here.  If the numbers are true, then the only reason I can fathom is that republicans in Ohio are giving up and telling pollsters they are staying home.

The SCOTUS decision that prevented the Ohio GOP from throwing out 200,000 votes hit republicans hard here.  I think they believed that they could steal the state again, and without that option, perhaps many have lost heart and given up.  You should have seen how disheartened goopers here were when that ruling came down.  In their eyes, you could tell that they were now resigned to losing...  

We shall see...

Which explains why they all look pretty good.

No, it is not wasted time.  This is not 2004 where Kerry had only one very narrow path to victory.    Elections like this only come around once in a generation or so and you need to take advantage of the situation.

Obama has the money and the resources.  None of them are any use on November 5.   And as any marketing person will tell you the first $100 spent is much more effective than the fifth $100 spent.    We should be working to win Indiana and Missouri as well as North Carolina

With over 16% of the vote already cast they are still at over 35% total.    This has been consistant since early voting started.  You can check in out on the Georgia Secretary of State Webiste.

About the only way this can keep up is to have nearly 100% turnout.  Georgia is about 30% African American, but they are underrepresented in registered voters, less than 28% of the total.

This would be an enormous overperformance, but not impossible given the excitement about Obama.

So what does that mean?  That for Obama to win he has to pick up about 32 percent of the White vote, correct?

squeak out a win it's not enough!  We want to punish the opposition!  We want a blowout!

We've waited a long time to show these characters just what we think of their neo-con policies and criminal activity.