Tracking Poll Update: Obama Retakes Big Gallup Lead

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4741
Gallup (Trad)5144
Gallup (Exp)5242
Rasmussen Reports5046
Research 2000/dKos5042
Composite:49.62543.00

In other polling, the new ABC News/Washington Post tracker (.pdf) shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 53 percent to 44 percent margin. This poll comes online later in the day than the other four daily trackers listed above, so it is actually a day behind the numbers above. The Battleground tracker (.pdf) goes out on a limb and shows close to a tied race, 48 percent for Obama to McCain's 47 percent.

And for those interested in polling, and the real explosion of polling this year relative to elections past, check out Michael Crowley's article in The New Republic. Although there are some things that I would quibble with in the piece -- for instance, I still don't buy the notion that the polling Research 2000 is doing for Daily Kos is off base, particularly in light of the fact that R2K polling has actually underestimated Democratic performance in the past, and, as you can see above, it doesn't always show the greatest lead for Obama -- though it's worth the read if you have the time.

Finally, a quote of the day:

"It really makes no difference whether you're in a majority or minority, any member of the Congress can go work and make things happen on behalf of their constituents."

-- John Boehner

We are 14 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Obama Retakes Big Gallup Lead

I'm going to Pennsylvania!

by Jess81 2008-10-21 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Retakes Big Gallup Lead

Your sig is an homage to Engels, right?

by the mystical vortexes of sedona 2008-10-21 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Retakes Big Gallup Lead

Everyone loves teh Engels!

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-21 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Retakes Big Gallup

I'm going to Nevada.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-10-21 10:21AM | 0 recs
OK, I'm in trouble here....

I'm going to Milan, then Greece, then Egypt?

So sue me, it's been booked for over a year!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: OK, I'm in trouble here....

Sounds like an elitist to me.   You should be going to Myrtle Beach.   :)

by gavoter 2008-10-21 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: OK, I'm in trouble here....

Yeah, but I expect you folks to help push Obama over the finish line, or I may stay in Italy!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 10:36AM | 0 recs
Oh no you don't...

You bring yourself back here ASAP.

We can't afford to lose any more decent Americans no matter who wins the election.

by Spiffarino 2008-10-21 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Oh no you don't...

I'm coming back.

And, Obama is going to win!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh no you don't...

Your words --> God's Ear

by Spiffarino 2008-10-21 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: BTW Wash

http://www.insightcruises.com/itinerary_ d/mm08_itinerary.html

My birthday is Nov 12th, I have never celebrated it outside of the US before...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 12:29PM | 0 recs
by mikeinsf 2008-10-21 11:48AM | 0 recs
I said this before, we need a variety of polls

using different methodology.  The Research 2000 poll makes some fairly optimistic assumptions about democratic and minority turn-out.  But those assumptions are realistic and reasonable, and therefore provides a snapshot into what the election may look like if things go very well for the dems.  

Interestingly, their numbers now aren't that out there anymore, as the gallup poll seems to be most in favor of Obama right now.  I wonder if that has anything to do with R2000's likely voter model.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-10-21 10:40AM | 0 recs
Re: I said this before, we need a variety of polls

Yes, the methodology is really fascinating. I think we can feel completely confident at this point in saying that the Powell endorsement is resulting in some actual gains for Obama, even if they aren't being measured in all the polls.

The two polls with the most overrepresented GOP presence are Zogby and the Gallup Traditional, and both are where Obama has seen his most impressive gains. Meanwhile, in Rasmussen, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 10%, it barely makes a blip on the radar.

by vcalzone 2008-10-21 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: I said this before, we need a variety of polls

And Battleground continues to be the wackiest... which is interesting with Zogby in there.

Yet another reason we like averaging polls.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-21 10:55AM | 0 recs
Obama Retakes Big Gallup

John has a big disadvantage in the GE, he's running against a real human. He changed his race into a cartoon show, where he's Bluto and Sarah is some character fro Lil' Abner. I can't see her without laughing, and I can't see him without rooting for the other guy, he's so wrong on everything.

For once the American public at large agrees with me. It is just a coincidence?  Or has John gone so far in his own 'right' that he's proven once and for all the voters prefer voting for a human being?  

by anna shane 2008-10-21 10:57AM | 0 recs
Might be over

At this point, McCain hasn't made a dent in Obama's position. He's eaten into his lead, but not in a way that actually takes away any of his support. People have made up their minds. I will grant that the McCain campaign had their strongest message yet this week, but it's gotten them nothing of substance.

Meanwhile, we have been entirely in the McCain makes a move phase, without Obama pushing back. Frankly, I think they could actually get a big number of votes if they went after Palin at this point. She's been just nothing but awful, and voters are increasingly sick of her bullshit. I'd love to see somebody call her out on being a complete and total lie.

by vcalzone 2008-10-21 10:58AM | 0 recs
Obama Retakes Big Gallup Lead?

"We are 14 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?"

Driving people to early voting in NC. Good luck caging those votes, suckers!

by Spiffarino 2008-10-21 11:13AM | 0 recs
funny to see TNR complaining

The reality is that kos is doing more reporting than their entire magazine.  Furthermore, the entire thing reeks of a writer who wants to be able to drop opinions and made-up facts, and is annoyed that his type is being shown to be foolish. The complete lack of numbers and statistics in the article is striking.

Basically this guy is no different than the e-mailers complains about, and he's defensive because he knows it's obvious to everyone.

by John DE 2008-10-21 11:26AM | 0 recs
CNN Continues to say race tightening

CNN Continues to push the meme that the races continues to tighten and that McCain still might be saved by the 'Palin factor'.
It is one of the top 2 stories on the Politics section.

I guess the McCain camp keeps dumping money into CNN to lie for them.

by gavoter 2008-10-21 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: CNN Continues to say race tightening

The Palin factor?

Oh, you mean the fact she drove ever single remaining Female Clintonista that was still undecided to the Obama camp in about 30 seconds?

Yeah, that worked out real well.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 12:33PM | 0 recs
rounding up the Democratic votes in my precinct

Excuse me I have work to do

by molly bloom 2008-10-21 11:43AM | 0 recs
Look at new Pew Numbers

http://people-press.org/report/462/obama s-lead-widens

They have Obama up 52-39, yes McCain is at 39 and that is Likely voter screened.  In Mid September they had the race tied and even three weeks ago Obama was only up by 6 in this poll.

I am not sure what Pew is seeing, but maybe somebody here can better gleen through the numbers.

by gavoter 2008-10-21 12:05PM | 0 recs

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